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Scottish independence

Faye McAleer

Would you be in support of a politico-economic union and formal international intergovernmental cooperation between the three Gaelic nations, (united) Ireland, (independent) Scotland and the Isle of Man similar to Benelux?

The Benelux cooperation has served as a model for the EU, and is basically an EU lite, comprising a customs union and a parliament as well as shared resources.

This could work between the three Gaelic nations and when we get reunification and the Scottish get independence, I think it is something good that should be created.

What do you think?

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astrofool

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

Perhaps you should read the articles you post ...

" The task facing the SNP and Giugliano is not insignificant " is some way off "that seat will fall to the SNP " particularly in the light of the party's declining fortunes in the opinion polls.
I see Sturgeon has quietly shelved her plans for an indy IndyRef ...

Sure, but you said this which was much wronger:

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

You won't find many people in that area voting for independence.

bob mcbob

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

The total Scottish tax take is £66bn. The total state spending is £81bn. The shortfall of £15bn is made up by money from Westminster.
Come back to me when you have a plan to balance the two after independence because the SNP hasn't yet which is why Scottish people were not convinced in the original referendum and according to the polls are still not convinced.

Well then surely you would be glad to see the back of the spendthrift ungrateful Scots.

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

Of course corruption in the party ranks, declining education standards, the highest drug overdose death rate in Europe and a failing health service haven't helped either.

Corruption, seriously - have you read anything other than the Daily Telegraph in the past week.

Education standards - here is an alternative view from the Telegraph for you
https://fullfact.org/scotland/johnson-education-claims/

Drug policy is firmly under control of the Home Office in Westminster. Holyrood have requested that this is transferred to Edinburgh to address this problem. Westminster has refused.

Failing health service - I will leave that one up to you to back up your statement.

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

The SNP is going backwards.SNIP

From a Scottish perspective, it seems like the only question in the Scottish election is whether the SNP get an outright majority or miss it by a couple of seats and they go into coalition with other indy supporting parties.

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

Will the Waitrose wing of the SNP, the Scottish Greens, be propping her up again in parliament ?

This really, really shows how little you know about Scottish politics. The Waitrose wing is proposing a wealth tax that specifically targets "the Waitrose set".

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/millionaires-tax-could-see-richest-23910479

bob mcbob

Here is a question for the Unionists -

Now that North Sea oil is running out, it is interesting to compare the legacy of this in particular between Norway and the UK.

Norway now has a sovereign wealth fund of over £900bn as a result of the oil.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/28/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-gains-more-than-90bn-during-2020

What legacy does the UK have from this oil? (note UK not Scotland)

ancapailldorcha

Knuckles Kennedy wrote: »

I think most of it went on unemployment benefit in Scotland ...:D

Mod: No more silly comments please. This is a forum for serious discussion.

Capt'n Midnight

Aegir wrote: »

Are you referring to the common travel area between Ireland, Isle of Mann, the Channel Islands and the United Kingdom? The same United Kingdom that the SNP wants to leave?

Yes.

It's another "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" non-issue about Scottish independence for which the precedent was set a long time ago when Ireland left the UK.

[Deleted User]

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Yes.

It's another "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" non-issue about Scottish independence for which the precedent was set a long time ago when Ireland left the UK.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt, like English nimbyism?

The CTA only came about because Ireland left the UK. There is no guarantee that the UK would agree to Scotland joining, although it is likely they will.

They can’t negotiate to join and then tell the EU they have a pre existing agreement that trumps Schengen. It isn’t exactly negotiating in good faith.

BlitzKrieg

Aegir wrote: »

They can’t negotiate to join and then tell the EU they have a pre existing agreement that trumps Schengen. It isn’t exactly negotiating in good faith.

It's not exactly negotiating in bad faith if it's a pre existing agreement.

also numerous EU states have joined the EU with pre existing issues that trumped Schengen after it's become a requirement, in some cases the EU helped resolve those issues (like in Croatia) and other cases the EU has just let it sit (like Cyprus). The EU is not going to ignore 15 years of membership and suddenly kick out Cyprus if they dont join schengen.

PommieBast

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

It's not exactly negotiating in bad faith if it's a pre existing agreement.

also numerous EU states have joined the EU with pre existing issues that trumped Schengen after it's become a requirement, in some cases the EU helped resolve those issues (like in Croatia) and other cases the EU has just let it sit (like Cyprus). The EU is not going to ignore 15 years of membership and suddenly kick out Cyprus if they dont join schengen.

After the "flexible" attitude the EU had to pretty much everything during the GFC, all this seems like minor kinks to iron out. All that really matters is whether the current leaders of rEU like the idea of Scotland in or not.

Water John

PommieBast wrote: »

After the "flexible" attitude the EU had to pretty much everything during the GFC, all this seems like minor kinks to iron out. All that really matters is whether the current leaders of rEU like the idea of Scotland in or not.

I'd say now after dealing with the British on Brexit, there would be a smile of satisfaction on their faces when Scotland rocks up to rejoin.

Mr.Nice Guy

Johnson's plan to respond to the Scottish vote has apparently been revealed:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1388607498672877572

Boris Johnson is planning to spend billions of pounds on new road and rail links and treating Scottish patients on English NHS beds in a desperate counter offensive against Nicola Sturgeon.

The blueprint to save the Union, the first steps of which will be activated days after a feared SNP landslide this week, will also offer student exchanges between UK nations and see diplomats ordered to make the case against Scottish independence in foreign capitals.

It goes on to say a senior government source reckons the result in Scotland is likely to be 'bloody awful.' The above plans have the air of 'the vow' about them from 2014.

BlitzKrieg

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson's plan to respond to the Scottish vote has apparently been revealed:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1388607498672877572

It goes on to say a senior government source reckons the result in Scotland is likely to be 'bloody awful.' The above plans have the air of 'the vow' about them from 2014.

Did any of 'the vow' come true in the end? I know the EU side of it obviously fell flat on it's face but did the UK actually give anything to Scotland in the end?

Larbre34

It'd be pretty difficult to be more pathetic than the Government of Boris Johnson right now.

The UK is broke and falling apart and he's talking about student exchanges and building royal yachts.

astrofool

Larbre34 wrote: »

It'd be pretty difficult to be more pathetic than the Government of Boris Johnson right now.

The UK is broke and falling apart and he's talking about student exchanges and building royal yachts.

Honestly, I think he knows his time is up so he won't be the one who has to quietly drops them.

I mean, a royal yacht to go buccaneering for trade deals on the high seas, it's utterly daft.

Mr.Nice Guy

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did any of 'the vow' come true in the end? I know the EU side of it obviously fell flat on it's face but did the UK actually give anything to Scotland in the end?

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Capt'n Midnight

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Which were overridable because of invoking the Henry VIII's laws as part of Brexit.

What few powers were given could be removed anytime.

ThePanjandrum

bob mcbob wrote: »

Education standards - here is an alternative view from the Telegraph for you
https://fullfact.org/scotland/johnson-education-claims/

Isn't it a shame that Fullfacts "refutation" of the fall in standards depends on ignoring grade inflation, so if students get higher marks because the exams are easier or marked more leniently than previously.

[Deleted User]

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Other than making a the Scottish government permanent under the constitution and giving the Holyrood parliament more power than any devolved administration in the world, you mean?

Capt'n Midnight

Voting on Thursday. This may be too little , too late to distance them

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56962642

Boris Johnson should resign if he is found to have broken government rules over his flat renovations, the Scottish Conservative leader has said.

Mr.Nice Guy

Douglas Ross probably knows the game is up for him if the polls are to be believed. I don't think they have run a good campaign, and this evening it looks like the party in Scotland has blundered with a tweet they sent out:

https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1389220146632437763

I can see that line being referenced and repeated plenty of times in the days, weeks and months to come by independence supporters. This was the Tory response to it subsequently:

The SNP are getting themselves all excited about this tweet.

Their own 'routemap to independence' says they'll hold a wildcat indyref2 if they get a majority - no matter what the UK Government says.

There's only one way to be sure of stopping it - #PeachVoteTory.

Doubling down on the original post probably wasn't the best idea. A lot of unionists in the comments are expressing disbelief that the Tory strategy is giving credibility to the SNP claim that a vote for them is a mandate, rather than dismissing the possibility outright. A selection of some that caught my eye:

There are no guarantees,no matter what the vote in an assembly.The Assembly does not have legality over constitutional issues. Why are you agreeing with them?

This campaign from the conservatives has been complete and utter ****e. As a Tory voter I’m dismayed at the fact you have chosen to go with ‘stop the referendum’ when it should have been ‘you can’t have one as it’s reserved to Westminster so vote for us instead’. Like Labour

All they had to do was say "The SNP is lying to you, there isn't going to be a referendum".

This is nonsense. A 'wildcat' ref can be stopped by legal means - nothing to do with Tories. You are coming across as defeatist.

Don't tweet in a way that appears to support the SNP.

This tweet was a pathetic disgrace and is only acceptable if you make it explicitly clear that they are threatening an UNCONSTITUTIONAL referendum.

There is no advantage in not explaining this!

It's not the SNP. Your own voters are telling you that you are morons.

That tweet is probably the most stupid move I have ever seen during an election campaign.

Total amateurs man.

I wonder are the Tories in London aware of what the Tories north of the border are doing because it would seem they are making things much harder for them with the mixed messages.

Peregrinus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I wonder are the Tories in London aware of what the Tories north of the border are doing because it would seem they are making things much harder for them with the mixed messages.

I don't think the Scottish Tories care greatly what Tories in London think about them. Why should they, when the Tories in London plainly care so little about them?

Obviously the Scottish Tories have not given up on the union or on unionism. But, strategically, they will be thinking about how to position themselves for political relevance in an independent, or independence-minded, Scotland. Being perceived as the Edinburgh branch office of Westminster Toryism would not be good positioning.

(One of the ironies of Tory opposition to Scottish independence is that, in an independent Scotland no longer dominated by the independence question, as space for a major centre-right party, perhaps a Christian Democratic party in Euoropean terms, is likely to open up. And why should the Scottish Tories not fill that space? For much of middle years of the 20th century Scottish politics was largely a duopoly between the Labour Party on the left and the Unionist party (not to be confused with the Ulster Unionist Party) on the right. The Unionist party merged with the Conservative Party in 1965, and since then has been pretty much on the slide, electorally speaking. But there's no reason why a left/right duopoly shouldn't emerge again.)

Wanderer78

With their new public infrastructure bank, they're well on their way to independence, and I suspect they'll succeed this time

pixelburp

The SNP have been out pouring cold water over the prospect of a majority it seems; wonder if this is merely tempering expectations or if they saw something in their internal polling. The system intentionally prevents lopsided majorities so maybe they know what's likely

And watching the electorial map take shape is fascinating. Not least how solidly blue the border constituencies remain (Galloway and West Dufries remains to be called but was Tory the last time).

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

The SNP have been out pouring cold water over the prospect of a majority it seems; wonder if this is merely tempering expectations or if they saw something in their internal polling. The system intentionally prevents lopsided majorities so maybe they know what's likely

And watching the electorial map take shape is fascinating. Not least how solidly blue the border constituencies remain (Galloway and West Dufries remains to be called but was Tory the last time).

They're not tempering expectations they're trying to inform the public that the media are talking crap.

The narrative since yesterday has been that the SNP have failed to get majority, which is clearly preposterous.

It's just classic Unionist media reportage.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They're not tempering expectations they're trying to inform the public that the media are talking crap.

The narrative since yesterday has been that the SNP have failed to get majority, which is clearly preposterous.

It's just classic Unionist media reportage.

The SNP have to win over 50% of the seats in a system designed to prevent them doing so.

In Westminster, Gov get formed with massive majorities when only achieving 43% or so of the popular vote, and that is a legitimate, democratic result. Thatcher got that in her three election 'victories, as did Tony Blair when he won the largest no of seats.

So a massive endorsement for Tories of 43% of the vote, but a massive defeat for the SNP on 50% of the vote. That is democracy UK style.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

The SNP have to win over 50% of the seats in a system designed to prevent them doing so.

In Westminster, Gov get formed with massive majorities when only achieving 43% or so of the popular vote, and that is a legitimate, democratic result. Thatcher got that in her three election 'victories, as did Tony Blair when he won the largest no of seats.

So a massive endorsement for Tories of 43% of the vote, but a massive defeat for the SNP on 50% of the vote. That is democracy UK style.

Exactly. It's maddening, though not surprising.

Standards are for "others".

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Exactly. It's maddening, though not surprising.

Standards are for "others".

Not just 'standards' but also 'precedents'.

As Tory PMs are wont to say and do - 'We need to find a precedent that allows us to do what we want to do (even if it is illegal)- and if we cannot find one, we will invent one and that will do'.

A Dub in Glasgo

The BBC finally have a small piece on their website which explains it but they continually let the unionist parties and commentators spout the 'bad day for the SNP as they did not get a majority'

With the SNP winning nearly all the constituencies, how can a majority be in doubt?

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

The SNP are likely to take the vast majority of constituency seats – but this is not the only way MSPs are elected.

As well as the 73 first past the post contests, there are 56 MSPs elected to eight regions across Scotland. These seats are doled out using a proportional representation system, which aims to “top up” the number of MSPs for parties which have won a lot of votes locally, but fell short of winning actual seats.

It uses a multiplier system which means every seat a party gains locally makes it progressively harder to pick up more - so because the SNP dominates the constituency contests around the country, it is very hard for them to win list seats

pixelburp

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

One would hope that they learned their partition lesson from Ireland, the Middle East and India. One would hope.

pixelburp

BonnieSituation wrote: »

One would hope that they learned their partition lesson from Ireland, the Middle East and India. One would hope.

TBH all I know of the border areas is a) there was a Pro14 rugby team (Border Reivers), and b) it's traditionally very unionist. Culturally though, would it swing Scots or North England, to be reductionist? History repeats so I'd spare no confidence independence wouldn't be messy, hence my crazy idea of Scotland starting smaller, England getting a little larger.