Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Edgarfrndly wrote: »

Will probably recommend it for over 60's same as AZ.

incidence levels are 1/10th of AZ levels, it is not a given that the restrictions should be the same.

No new clotting cases reported to FDa & CDC since last week

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1384514539224510471?s=19

pgj2015 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/news/two-fully-vaccinated-nursing-home-staff-test-positive-for-covid-19-40334239.html

This shouldn't be news. Of course there's going to be some instances of vaccinated people testing positive, it's not 100% effective.

All stories like this achieve is damage to the vaccine programme.

KrustyUCC wrote: »

You would hope they would have different recommendations for J&J

We don't have another one shot vaccine

We need the 600,000 doses to turn into 600,000 fully vaccinated people

Well when they took the decision with AZ it was on the basis of having 3 other vaccines so it's a slightly different context when looking at J&J now.

I'd say they might put an age limit but not as extreme as 60.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well when they took the decision with AZ it was on the basis of having 3 other vaccines so it's a slightly different context when looking at J&J now.

I'd say they might put an age limit but not as extreme as 60.

I'd be happy enough with 50+

Would give us 600,000 doses to fully vaccinate people in that bracket

Knowing our luck though it will prob be higher than 50

Ridiculous if the NIAC put age restrictions on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The risks are tiny and a lot more people will die if they don't receive the vaccine on time. Not to mention the huge damage restrictions are doing to the economy.

Knex* wrote: »

Another 5-6 weeks to give everyone over 60 one dose?

I naively thought we'd ramp up to get it done a little quicker than that. Have you average daily totals that you're using to estimate that?

Just looking at it myself now. There's 417k in this cohort, 6 weeks is 42 days. That's an average of around 9k a day, not even accounting for those already jabbed.

I'd be hoping to half that time, even accounting for 2nd doses of previous cohorts. Am I way off?

Sorry, missed this.

Basically yeah, about 9-10k a day sounds right. Assuming supply stays on-stream we theoretically have enough to do about 100k doses per week. Which would mean we'd be finished mid-May.

Realistically that's unlikely. Not only the supply issue, but the fact that we're doing other vaccines too, not just AZ. I don't see AZ making up 66% of the rollout for the next 4 weeks, not even 50% of it.

So I modelled 50,000 doses a week as the pessimistic rollout for AZ. Which gives an end date of mid-June to finish dose 1.

So, split the difference, gives us end of May, with ~75k AZ doses a week.

I'm sure with a bit more effort I could factor in ramp-ups, but it's a lot of work for very little extra gain. I'm not a civil servant in the dept of health trying to produce accurate estimates

BigMo1 wrote: »

This shouldn't be news. Of course there's going to be some instances of vaccinated people testing positive, it's not 100% effective.

All stories like this achieve is damage to the vaccine programme.

Yes, these vaccines prevent sickness, they do not prevent infection.

If you have been vaccinated, and are then somehow exposed to coronavirus, and there is nothing stopping the spread of the virus, then you could be infected.

The vaccine should have triggered an immune response, so the immune system is ready for the incoming virus.

You acquire the coronavirus, but you do not develop COVID.

I honestly just hope it doesn't take NIAC as long to decide on J&J as it did with AZ.

RTE news : EMA: Benefits of J&J Covid-19 vaccine outweigh risks

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0420/1211016-johnson-johnson/

This is excellent news

AdamD wrote: »

If they recommend it for over 60s its borderline useless for our rollout. Even moving it to over 50s would make a huge difference

I think reality and practicality will dictate that it's available for at least over 50s.
Having an incidence many times lower than AZ means that the risk-benefit cut off age will be lower anyway.
NIAC will be able to choose a lower age than 60 and defend the reasoning.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would actually be a reasonable idea - limit it to over 50's. Then as soon as over 70's are done the 60-49, 50-59 and under 50's will be going on in parallel

Group 7 will be done first I imagine they are next in line

Great news. The “one shot” jab will be a real boon in vaccinating, the more, vulnerable groups.

AZ have told HSE in the last 48hrs of changes to delivery schedule.

Personally can't see it having too much of an impact given the already limited use.

https://twitter.com/JackHoJo/status/1384522478999965698?s=19