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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #5582
    arccosh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭arccosh


    drkpower wrote: »
    Why wait for 4 or 5 years? There are hundreds of excellent Irish doctors and nurses practising in a gazillions other jurisdictions who would be more than happy to come home if the deal is right.

    the deal is pretty decent here already, hence why it's attractive for a lot of foreign consultants.... the main issue is experience, you don't get the broad spectrum of case samples in a country of circa 5 million...

    That's why you need a healthy stream of junior doctors and nurses coming through... most nurses go to the UK to train as university is 3 years, with guaranteed (paid) job placement, some course even have a bursary and fees paid.... Ireland is 4 years without a guarantee of placement or job.... Junior doctors need a better system with placement agreements in other countries, so they're not left to firefight and burn out on their own in the Irish system..

    That's why a lot leave and don't intend on coming back unless they're a specialist consultant in something...

    It's not an overnight fix


  • #5583
    Stormyteacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    arccosh wrote: »
    assuming ulterior motives without evidence it quite lazy too



    such as?

    I'm genuinely curious, because I cannot come up with any logic reason why a service that relies on people paying taxes to run it, would want to continue a situation which will directly lead to their funding being cut going forward ....

    The only self interest I see happening is when the fingers start point as to who to blame.

    It’s a fair point if you believe they think their funding will be cut in the future. It’s not what I think will happen - other public cuts yes for certain, and even if it is, it won’t affect anyone at the top in any measurable way. The experts will be reasonably well-insulated when the wheel spins around to ‘blame’.


  • #5584
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    arccosh wrote: »
    the deal is pretty decent here already, hence why it's attractive for a lot of foreign consultants.... the main issue is experience, you don't get the broad spectrum of case samples in a country of circa 5 million...

    That's why you need a healthy stream of junior doctors and nurses coming through... most nurses go to the UK to train as university is 3 years, with guaranteed (paid) job placement, some course even have a bursary and fees paid.... Ireland is 4 years without a guarantee of placement or job.... Junior doctors need a better system with placement agreements in other countries, so they're not left to firefight and burn out on their own in the Irish system..

    That's why a lot leave and don't intend on coming back unless they're a specialist consultant in something...

    It's not an overnight fix

    It is an overnight fix as we have hundreds of fully qualified consultants and nurses practising in Uk/aus especially; not all, but many of those would come back if the post-recession new entry wage slashing was reversed. The cost of that is minimal when compared against the money we are now spending.


  • #5585
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    drkpower wrote: »
    It is an overnight fix as we have hundreds of fully qualified consultants and nurses practising in Uk/aus especially; not all, but many of those would come back

    Would it be fair to say that's a bit of a guess?


  • #5586
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Like how much longer can this go on? What type of long term damage is being done to the economy? I know absolutely **** all about that end of things, but have there been any reports written about it or sites/blogs that disucss that and lay out the facts and illustrate what might be coming down the road for us less in the know about it? Maybe I'm naive..but I hope given the relatively small amount of attention, the public government or media give to that discussion means it might somehow not turn out as bad as you'd think, or are we seriously just completely ignoring the reality of what's coming, and pretending it won't happen?

    The economy is ruined.

    And the seeds are being sown for continued restrictions and future lockdowns. Johnson yesterday saying that it was the lockdown, not the vaccines, that brought numbers down, Trudeau saying vaccines are not enough (https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1382071376060764160), and Australia talking about the border staying closed even post-vaccination (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/international-borders-might-not-open-even-if-whole-country-is-vaccinated-greg-hunt-20210413-p57ixi.html)

    And Donohue talking about restrictions well into next year.


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  • #5587
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    Graham wrote: »
    Would it be fair to say that's a bit of a guess?

    Not really.

    I know quite a few of them. And they have been agitating on this issue for a decade now.


  • #5588
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    drkpower wrote: »
    The ‘rate of infection’ doesn’t justify suspension of civil liberties either. The ‘deal’ was that we suspend our liberties to protect the vulnerable and avoid the actual collapse of the health service. Both have been achieved.

    We actually haven’t put much of any new resources into the health service itself; ie. we have very few additional staff or capacity (other than temporary capacity via the private hospital deal). That tells its own sad story.

    Where exactly are you pulling your ideas about this " deal" you're talking about?

    From the beginning the approach was that the vulnerable would cocoon and the rest of us would engage in a bit if cop on to keep the rate of infection down. And again this idea about "the collapse of the health service" is pure bolloxology. The stared aim was to keep infection rate low to allow the health service cope with all those who did becone seriously ill and require specialist care. And that continues whilst the largest vaccination programme in the states history is rolled out.

    Whats for sure is that ongoing moronic twtterings about 'civil liberties' simply sounds like yet another angle on the whole CT refusal to acknowledge the existence of the pandemic or that the current restrictions were brought in to keep the rate of infection down.

    As to resources - you may have missed it but yes there has been increased capacity with up to a 1700 covid patients being dealt in dedicated covid wards and icu.

    A significant amount of money has been spent on coping with the redeployment of existing healtcare services towards the treatment and management of covid patients and increased real-time ICU admissions.

    And yes we have seen a rise in ICU capacity. Available data shows the baseline capacity in ICU increased up to 280 up from 255 in March / April 2020. Afaik the surge capacity for ICU beds stands at approx 350.

    It also has to be understood that ICU capacity is not just beds - but also fully trained and available clinical staff, clinical space, clinical equipment, PPE, oxygen supply and Hospital / Hospital Group / HSE system supports. And yes more ventilators were bought although less invasive oxygen support is increasingly used where possible.

    Its like some think we're the only country in the world to have used restrictions to help manage the rate of infection. News for ya - we're not.


  • #5589
    arccosh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭arccosh


    drkpower wrote: »
    It is an overnight fix as we have hundreds of fully qualified consultants and nurses practising in Uk/aus especially; not all, but many of those would come back if the post-recession new entry wage slashing was reversed. The cost of that is minimal when compared against the money we are now spending.

    If you spoke to doctors and nurses who have experienced the HSE and elsewhere, you'll realise wages aren't the top of the issue, working hours and conditions were (and still are)....


  • #5590
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    arccosh wrote: »
    If you spoke to doctors and nurses who have experienced the HSE and elsewhere, you'll realise wages aren't the top of the issue, working hours and conditions were (and still are)....

    Indeed, like any complex issue, the answers are multi factorial. But a 30pc cut would be a significant negative driver don’t you think? And working hours tends to be a function of understaffing; fix one and the other improves.

    All of this was well covered in the IMOs submissions to the public sector pay commission a while back


  • #5591
    arccosh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭arccosh


    drkpower wrote: »
    Indeed, like any complex issue, the answers are multi factorial. But a 30pc cut would be a significant negative driver don’t you think? And working hours tends to be a function of understaffing; fix one and the other improves.

    All of this was well covered in the IMOs submissions to the public sector pay commission a while back

    soo... not an overnight fix?


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  • #5592
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    gozunda wrote: »
    Where exactly are you pulling your ideas about this " deal" you're talking about?

    From the beginning the approach was that the vulnerable would cocoon and the rest of us would engage in a bit if cop on to keep the rate of infection down. And again this idea about "the collapse of the health service" is pure bolloxology. The stared aim was to keep infection rate low to allow the health service cope with all those who did becone seriously ill and require specialist care. And that continues whilst the largest vaccination programme in the states history is rolled out.

    Whats for sure is that ongoing moronic twtterings about 'civil liberties' simply sounds like yet another angle on the whole CT refusal to acknowledge the existence of the pandemic or that the current restrictions were brought in to keep the rate of infection down.

    As to resources - you may have missed it but yes there has been increased capacity with up to a 1000 covid patients being dealt in dedicated covid wards.

    A significant amount of money has been spent on coping with the redeployment of existing healtcare services towards the treatment and management of covid patients and increased real-time ICU admissions.

    And yes we have seen a rise in ICU capacity. Available data shows the baseline capacity in ICU increased up to 280 up from 255 in March / April 2020. Afaik the surge capacity for ICU beds stands at approx 350.

    It also has to be understood that ICU capacity is not just beds - but also fully trained and available clinical staff, clinical space, clinical equipment, oxygen supply and
    Hospital / Hospital Group / HSE system supports. And yes more ventilators were bought although less invasive oxygen support is increasingly used where possible.

    Its like some think we're the only country in the world to have used restrictions to help manage the rate of infection. News for ya - were not.

    Protect the vulnerable/protect the health service was the very mantra at the very outset of the pandemic.

    Keeping the infection rate low of itself is of little use; in younger age groups the morbidity and mortality of cv19 is not dissimilar to other infectious diseases and does not - and has never - warranted restrictions on civil liberties. Indeed the very idea, up to 15 months ago, would have been seen as absurd.

    Equating ‘mutterings about civil,liberties’ to a conspiracy theory is truly bizarre and really does just highlight the willingness, indeed appetite, of some to accept restrictions that in any other context would justify civil unrest and worse. What we are seeing now are restrictions not seen in modern times; such draconian restrictions require a proportionate risk; that risk is not there anymore.

    As for healthcare capacity issues, I’ve addressed that elsewhere.


  • #5593
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    arccosh wrote: »
    soo... not an overnight fix?
    No; because they didn’t fix it!

    If they did, it would be.

    That is not to say that it would fix everything, far from it. But chronic understaffing has long been a massive block in our system and even partly fixing that would be a massive step in the right direction.


  • #5594
    PTH2009
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,519 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    bear1 wrote: »
    So may 4th?

    Be with you :D:D


  • #5595
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    arccosh wrote: »
    soo... not an overnight fix?



    Probably not going to help with relaxing restrictions any time soon either.


  • #5596
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,233 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    CNN director admits to fear mongering to boost ratings. Same as RTE.

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1382364998069059591


  • #5597
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The economy is ruined.

    And the seeds are being sown for continued restrictions and future lockdowns. Johnson yesterday saying that it was the lockdown, not the vaccines, that brought numbers down, Trudeau saying vaccines are not enough (https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1382071376060764160), and Australia talking about the border staying closed even post-vaccination (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/international-borders-might-not-open-even-if-whole-country-is-vaccinated-greg-hunt-20210413-p57ixi.html)

    And Donohue talking about restrictions well into next year.

    But that's what I'm talking about, all I hear is that it's ruined, that seems very kind of vague and abstract and with absolutely no context and so it's hard to foresee what kind of consequence it will have for the average person. Especially as a lot of poeple clearly havn't felt any effects of this allegedly ruined economy, and if it was ruined, that wouldn't make sense. Perhaps only ruined for some people then? Or has the impact just not become evident yet, for those others?

    Like if it was ruined like in the celtic tiger, then we'd hear more people saying that they are in same economic position as then, when most of the country struggled. Clearly a lot of people are struggling currently no doubt, but obviously a huge number of others aren't yet at least and are certainly living very comfortably still. So that's what I mean, clearly it is nothing like the 2000\s recession yet in it's impact nationally. But why? Why is it unfolding differently? Will everyone be affected? How evenly spread will it be? How long lasting will it be, will it be like other recessions or different, better , worse? My extended family's construction business was devastated in the Celtic Tiger recession, many of my uncles and aunts were going bankrupt. This time, in this ruined economy, none of them seem to be under any financial stress whatsoever. So it is absolutely different in crucial ways to prior recessions. All I hear is people saying economy is destroyed without much other substance added, and it makes it very unclear how much damage has actually been done, how it compares to other ecnomic periods of distress, or what would need to be done to improve it.

    If there were more complex , but clearly conveyed, arguments on the public platfems about the economy, maybe we'd see more people stand against restrictions, if the impact it will have on them indivdually long term is told to them straight.


  • #5598
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    Graham wrote: »
    Probably not going to help with relaxing restrictions any time soon either.

    It would have done had they made a genuine attempt at the outset to give public health doctors equal pay and status and encourage them home; sadly that opportunity wasn’t taken. But it’s never too late and boosting that speciality alone would have an immediate effect on restrictions.


  • #5599
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    drkpower wrote: »
    It would have done had they made a genuine attempt at the outset to give public health doctors equal pay and status and encourage them home; sadly that opportunity wasn’t taken. But it’s never too late and boosting that speciality alone would have an immediate effect on restrictions.

    I just don't believe there are hundreds of medical staff clamouring to get back here for what would amount to temporary jobs (or permanent for that matter).

    I think we're better off concentrating on preventing hospitalisations than increasing capacity at this stage.

    Reducing case numbers and hospitalisations (and keeping them low) while increasing vaccinations is the solution.


  • #5600
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    bb1234567 wrote: »

    If there were more complex , but clearly conveyed, arguments on the public platfems about the economy, maybe we'd see more people stand against restrictions, if the impact it will have on them indivdually long term is told to them straight.

    Very true.

    It seems that the approach globally is to get out of this via stimulus on the back of low interest borrowing, and judging by the corporate activity in the last few months that might be working in the short term. But there is a real question as to,whether we can rely on corporate activity to grow our way out of this when consumers simply can’t spend. The corporates are spending big in anticipation of consumers emptying their wallets when things open up; if the later doesn’t happen, it could end badly. Or if inflation is the result, we are all fooked, especially Ireland.


  • #5601
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    Graham wrote: »
    I just don't believe there are hundreds of medical staff clamouring to get back here for what would amount to temporary jobs (or permanent for that matter).

    I think we're better off concentrating on preventing hospitalisations than increasing capacity at this stage.

    Reducing case numbers and hospitalisations (and keeping them low) while increasing vaccinations is the solution.

    You mightn’t believe it but it’s true!

    But I agree with the second half of your point, other than the focus on case numbers. That focus has been misconceived for some time. Hospitalisations is all that matters.


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  • #5602
    ypres5
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,168 ✭✭✭ypres5


    arccosh wrote: »
    Then you're in Nightingale territory, all the equipment without the staff to run it....

    The HSE isn't going to be fixed overnight by throwing money at it... you're looking at 4 to 5 years of investment starting now to even get new doctors and nurses on the lower rungs of the ladder

    What about all the irish doctors and nurses who forsook their lives in Canada and Australia to help Ireland in its hour of need and were promptly told to **** off by the hse


  • #5603
    Parachutes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 971 ✭✭✭Parachutes


    Graham wrote: »
    I just don't believe there are hundreds of medical staff clamouring to get back here for what would amount to temporary jobs (or permanent for that matter).

    I think we're better off concentrating on preventing hospitalisations than increasing capacity at this stage.

    Reducing case numbers and hospitalisations (and keeping them low) while increasing vaccinations is the solution.

    And the only way to achieve your goal? Lockdown. Surprise, surprise :rolleyes:


  • #5604
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    drkpower wrote: »
    Or if inflation is the result, we are all fooked, especially Ireland.

    We'd probably benefit disproportionately from inflation but that's probably a bit off-topic for this thread.


  • #5605
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Parachutes wrote: »
    And the only way to achieve your goal? Lockdown. Surprise, surprise :rolleyes:

    You appear to be quite happy debating with yourself there Para so I'll leave you at it.


  • #5606
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    Graham wrote: »
    We'd probably benefit disproportionately from inflation but that's probably a bit off-topic for this thread.

    Not if the German centric ecb decided as they usually do that the answer to inflation is interest rate rises; then we are destroyed


  • #5607
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    drkpower wrote: »
    Not if the German centric ecb decided as they usually do that the answer to inflation is interest rate rises; then we are destroyed

    Not looking likely but I won't drag the thread further off-topic. It's just getting interesting watching someone debate with imaginary me :D


  • #5608
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    ypres5 wrote: »
    What about all the irish doctors and nurses who forsook their lives in Canada and Australia to help Ireland in its hour of need and were promptly told to **** off by the hse

    +1

    Between Canada, aus, nz and Uk, there are c. 5000 Irish doctors practising and the rate of increase has been significantly upwards since the 2009 30pc cut to new entry consultant pay.

    The waste to our system is frightening in so many levels


  • #5609
    JRant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,235 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Lumen wrote: »
    Public critical care beds have gone up from 225 to around 290, with surge capacity up to around 350.

    What permanent capacity would you like? Given that these beds cost a million a year each to run.

    I believe one of the HSE's own reports back in 2009 stated we needed over 500. Let's start with that.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • #5610
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    drkpower wrote: »
    Protect the vulnerable/protect the health service was the very mantra at the very outset of the pandemic.

    And yet none of that equates with your story that
    The ‘deal’ was that we suspend our liberties to protect the vulnerable and avoid the actual collapse of the health service. Both have been achieved.

    The vulnerable were advised to cocoon where possible and health service resources were ramped up so it could cope with those who needed specialist medical treatment. With restrictions brought to try and keep the rate of infection down.
    drkpower wrote: »
    Keeping the infection rate low of itself is of little use; in younger age groups the morbidity and mortality of cv19 is not dissimilar to other infectious diseases and does not - and has never - warranted restrictions on civil liberties. Indeed the very idea, up to 15 months ago, would have been seen as absurd.

    How many times does this have to be repeated. Deaths are not the only issue in relation to this pandemic. A rise in infections means more people get seriously ill and require hospitalisation. And approx 50% of those in hospital with covid are under 65. A rate which was seen prior to vaccination being started.
    drkpower wrote: »
    Equating ‘mutterings about civil,liberties’ to a conspiracy theory is truly bizarre and really does just highlight the willingness, indeed appetite, of some to accept restrictions that in any other context would justify civil unrest and worse. What we are seeing now are restrictions not seen in modern times; such draconian restrictions require a proportionate risk; that risk is not there anymore.

    Well thats exactly how current mutterings about 'civil liberties" comes across. And this pandemic is something the absolute majority of current generations have never had to deal with. So no these restrictions haven't been known in modern times. The risk of rising rates of infection and the impacts of that are significant risks as outlined. And despite the start of the vaccination programme - that risk remains. See Germany currently looking to add additional state wide restrictions because of increasing number of new covid cases there.

    Much like the current situation in the UK - that risk and restrictions will reduce as a larger number are vaccinated. Until then its a waiting game.


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  • #5611
    Fandymo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,177 ✭✭✭Fandymo


    ypres5 wrote: »
    What about all the irish doctors and nurses who forsook their lives in Canada and Australia to help Ireland in its hour of need and were promptly told to **** off by the hse

    The ones that were happy to screw the Aus/Canadian health service and patients?? I’m sure they would definitely stay in Ireland if the NHS or a desert country batted their eyelashes/wallet at them. Not mercenaries at all.


This discussion has been closed.
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