COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

JDD · 07-04-2021 10:07AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

eoinbn · 07-04-2021 10:09AM

VonLuck wrote: »

I always wondered about that. Surely during a pandemic administering vaccines should be maintained at the same level over weekends. Is this factored in to the weekday figures i.e. they administer more Mon-Fri to account for a reduction at the weekend?

The over 70's are currently been done by GP's. You can't expect them to work 12/7 for months on end - especially when there is no real need at the moment as
we are still limited by supply and will be until June. We have had days where we have hit 30k because supply has allowed us. Our biggest Pfizer delivery to date has been ~90k. We can go through that in 3-4 days even without most MVC's.
Once the MVC open up nationwide then we can expect more consistent numbers throughout the week.

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

I am not sure the ramp-up will happen this week or next. I expect that it will be April 19th onwards. I might be wrong but BioNtech aren't scheduled to start shipping doses until the second half of the month. Maybe Pfizer have improved their output or have different contract priorities for Q2.

Danzy · 07-04-2021 10:20AM

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

200k a week vaccinated and that's just by GPs, readily doable and exceeded in the past with flu Jabs.

Half a million a week with vaccination centres and the staff won't be rushed.

seamus · 07-04-2021 10:22AM

JTMan wrote: »

Does not sound like the EMA will approve Sputnik V soon.

Which is what Russia wants. They're using Sputnik as a political game for them. They want to prove there an anti-Russia bias in the EU.

A rough glance at the data suggests that Sputnik isn't a particularly good vaccine, the trial data is not rigorous and was suspiciously gathered. So we probably don't want it anyway, but to dismiss it out of hand would be a bad idea on a number of fronts.

The European Commission will put pressure on the EMA to drag out the approval process as long as possible, and eventually approve Sputnik, but only after it's become obsolete.

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

Every week until June at least we should beat the previous week. So if it was 135k last week, we can expect more than that this week.

The ramp-up in supply is continuous. They're projecting 860k doses in April, but that's not 215k each week. It'll be (for example) 150k in the first week, ramping up to 280k in the last week. This will continue on through to June. I'd say by late June we'll be doing 400k-500k doses a week.

eoinbn · 07-04-2021 10:36AM

seamus wrote: »

Every week until June at least we should beat the previous week. So if it was 135k last week, we can expect more than that this week.

The ramp-up in supply is continuous. They're projecting 860k doses in April, but that's not 215k each week. It'll be (for example) 150k in the first week, ramping up to 280k in the last week. This will continue on through to June. I'd say by late June we'll be doing 400k-500k doses a week.

There is no evidence of that. Supply won't be getting better every week. The overall trend will be upwards but some weeks will be lower than previous weeks. J&J look like they will supply some weeks and not others - like AZ. It is unlikely that we will get more doses this week than last week.

Van.Bosch · 07-04-2021 10:37AM

JDD wrote: »

How many do you think we'll get vaccinated this week? This is the first week of the "ramp up" right?

And, if we now have a plentiful supply of vaccines, shouldn't we see little by the way of variation of numbers being vaccinated during the week as opposed to weekends?

Last question, have the HSE actually published how many new vaccinators they have hired since January?

The jump in supply or the big delivery was AZ, GPS are doing Pfizer mainly. The AZ is being distributed by the HSE directly.

The numbers are disappointing alright but I’d hope to see some big big numbers for Tuesday and Wednesday onwards. I’d also like to see the end of 3,000 a day on Sunday’s. The previous rationale was that all the vaccines were given out by then but if that’s not the case anymore with increased supply, then Sunday should be no different than Wednesday, right?

Gael23 · 07-04-2021 10:54AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

1huge1c wrote: »

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Given that there were 3 bank holidays I think we need to cut some slack this weekend

Melanchthon · 07-04-2021 11:17AM

franciscanpunk wrote: »

Fair enough it doesnt affect me but if i was your local supermarket worker, family member, doctor, etc I would feel that not only are you putting yourself at unnecessary greater risk you would also be putting me at extra risk too.

Agreed when you see posts like this

beggars_bush wrote: »

Many people think their life has ended as they cannot go shopping, go into a pub for a pint or out for a meal in a restaurant

You can see that there are people that obviously don't know anybody forced to sit on the PUP loosing money due to the restrictions (while knowing they will likely have a bigger tax bill when work does start).

The impact of shut downs are in no way equally spread.

VonLuck · 07-04-2021 11:17AM

eoinbn wrote: »

The over 70's are currently been done by GP's. You can't expect them to work 12/7 for months on end - especially when there is no real need at the moment as
we are still limited by supply and will be until June. We have had days where we have hit 30k because supply has allowed us. Our biggest Pfizer delivery to date has been ~90k. We can go through that in 3-4 days even without most MVC's.
Once the MVC open up nationwide then we can expect more consistent numbers throughout the week.

Well if the supply was there I would hope that there would be a push for GP's to go the extra mile and work weekends for a few weeks until the over 70's are finished and the remaining vaccines can be administered by others. But if the supply is the only limiting factor then I guess there's no need.

ek motor · 07-04-2021 11:26AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Given that there were 3 bank holidays I think we need to cut some slack this weekend

Why ? Is it not imperative to get the vaccines out asap regardless of bank holidays ?

IngazZagni · 07-04-2021 11:27AM

VonLuck wrote: »

Well if the supply was there I would hope that there would be a push for GP's to go the extra mile and work weekends for a few weeks until the over 70's are finished and the remaining vaccines can be administered by others. But if the supply is the only limiting factor then I guess there's no need.

Supply is clearly still the issue. My local GP said there is no point in doing vaccinations at weekends yet because they can easily administer all the vaccines they get on weekdays. That might change soon. I heard yesterday was their busiest day yet.

Russman · 07-04-2021 11:46AM

FWIW its worth my GP is doing vaccinations on Thursdays and Saturdays at the moment (seemingly that's dictated by deliveries). My father has an appointment for Saturday afternoon for his first shot (age 76).

snotboogie · 07-04-2021 12:05PM

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

leahyl · 07-04-2021 12:08PM

Mum got a call from GP this morning - getting her first dose on the 16th April

07-04-2021 12:09PM

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

I might be wrong but I don't think GPs presently have access to any kind of central data registry for Covid vaccines, so they are recording doses on their own first and then submitting the data to the HSE to record.

is_that_so · 07-04-2021 12:12PM

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

A lot of countries are using MVCs only. We've all sorts on the go at present so it takes time to collate.

Sweet.Science · 07-04-2021 12:12PM

Seems like the UK are having big supply issues at the moment

Interesting that they are going ahead with opening up from Monday

zuutroy · 07-04-2021 12:15PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Seems like the UK are having big supply issues at the moment

Interesting that they are going ahead with opening up from Monday

Full crowd of 1000 allowed in for the World Snooker Final in <4 weeks time.

Responder XY · 07-04-2021 12:37PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/eu-regulator-to-probe-ethical-standards-of-sputnik-vaccine-trials-1.4530866

I think this raises an interesting (although possibly hypothetical question) - if a vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, but the trials were not conducted to the ethical standards that they should have been, should it be used.

To use it is to overlook poor ethics in the testing, but to not use it means less people would be protected against covid (hypothetically assuming limited supply of other vaccines meaning this one would boost supply)

I'd say that as long as it's effective and safe it should be used, the greater ethical issue would be to not use it. But does anyone know how regulators will view that?

Irish Stones · 07-04-2021 12:53PM

seamie78 wrote: »

yeah as you are using the lowest possible figure you can come up with as opposed to predicted supplies, also the figure you quote of 220 is an average per day so therefore it the 93 you quote from sunday is completely irrelevant

It is not.
The average figure of the past 7 days is a little lower than 1.5 million, and it's the highest average so far.
Because the next supplies will be fewer than the expected, I don't think it'll be any improvement of that number, so it still applies as an average weekly roll out.
But I want to help you and say that, because the intervention of a magic event from the deep space, the average roll out will up to 2 million a week. What does that change in the calculation? It will still take a year to complete the 80% of the population, so, the best case scenario is that we are in April 2022... not much earlier, I'd say.

seamus · 07-04-2021 01:00PM

is_that_so wrote: »

A lot of countries are using MVCs only. We've all sorts on the go at present so it takes time to collate.

Indeed. I understand the GP-led approach for the over-70s, but I've heard so many anecdotes of GP surgeries with a haphazard approach to scheduling that I'm starting to think that the MVC approach should have been taken from the start. Acquire patient lists from GPs, send everyone to MVCs.

Any road, as you say hopefully we'll get our numbers more up-to-date as we move to phase 2 of the rollout.

Responder XY wrote: »

I think this raises an interesting (although possibly hypothetical question) - if a vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, but the trials were not conducted to the ethical standards that they should have been, should it be used.

There are international laws and agreements about this stuff. I don't know the full details. After WWII a LOT of medical research data was collected from German and Japanese facilities. To say it was gathered unethically is to put it very mildly.
Officially it was destroyed, never to be used. Though I expect it exists in some top-secret archive somewhere.
My personal feeling is that it should have been allowed to be used, provided that it was only used for beneficial purposes; new treatments for conditions, etc. To destroy it means that those who suffered in the experiments, suffered for nothing.
But I certainly can see the argument for not using it either.

In the Sputnik case though, the effectiveness of the vaccine and the ethics behind how the trial was conducted, are not mutually exclusive. That is, if large portions of the trial cohort were not volunteers, or if they were selected from specific populations (such as military and prisoners), then it calls into question the validity of the data overall. You cannot be sure that the results obtained through the use of forced participants, will be replicated if the vaccine is to be used among the general population.

seamie78 · 07-04-2021 01:14PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

It is not.
The average figure of the past 7 days is a little lower than 1.5 million, and it's the highest average so far.
Because the next supplies will be fewer than the expected, I don't think it'll be any improvement of that number, so it still applies as an average weekly roll out.
But I want to help you and say that, because the intervention of a magic event from the deep space, the average roll out will up to 2 million a week. What does that change in the calculation? It will still take a year to complete the 80% of the population, so, the best case scenario is that we are in April 2022... not much earlier, I'd say.

as you say highest so far, its increasing all the time.........im leaving it at that

funnydoggy · 07-04-2021 01:14PM

My other half is getting her first vaccine on Tuesday. I'll be another good while given I'm not vulnerable and I'm in the 30~ age bracket but at least she'll be getting her shot soon

CIARAN_BOYLE · 07-04-2021 01:16PM

snotboogie wrote: »

If the millionth vaccine is adminstered today, we should have something like 5k for the bank holiday and 30k each for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1 million also gets us to 20 shots per 100.

I still have no idea why we seem to be the only developed country to update numbers 3 days behind the actual date? Every other country is only about 24 hours behind in reporting...

A lot of other countries are reporting vaccines administered like we report our deaths.

Reports of 200,000 vaccines administered were received on Monday while we report vaccinations on a day.

In the UK for example if a gp practice is vaccinating 5 days a week but an admin person comes in and fires a report on Friday all those vaccines are reported as being given on Friday.

Our figure for Friday vaccines is reported later but it actually ties in with vaccinations done on Friday.

stephenjmcd · 07-04-2021 01:18PM

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

stephenjmcd · 07-04-2021 01:22PM

Expected deliveries Q2 and what arrived in Q1 from Dept of Health.

So dose number 1 million arrived last Wednesday and should be used probably by today. Its good going from arrival to distribution

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379770370434158595?s=19

Strazdas · 07-04-2021 01:30PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

Oh right, that's interesting - the portal takes appointments by age and each age group then waits its turn for the portal to open for them.

vienne86 · 07-04-2021 01:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

Well we were told it would be availabe BEFORE 19th April.......I wonder when vaccination will actually begin.

Wolf359f · 07-04-2021 01:32PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appintment booking for 65-69 begins week of 19th April

https://twitter.com/PTHosford/status/1379768420598738945?s=19

1.7 mil vaccinated in May based off a supply of 1.25mil in May.
Something doesn't add up there.

ixoy · 07-04-2021 01:39PM

My Dad got his first shot at the weekend so that now means I'm the only one in my immediate family without a vaccine

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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