COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

07-04-2021 01:13AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Let's wait and see ; the "race" is not over. As I mentioned just above, there's a distinct possibility Ireland could be fully vaccinated before the UK manages it.

Theyve won.

Know when your beaten.

They are getting herd immunity benefits as we speak which gives them options and relief from pandemnic now. Look at the state they were in this time last year. We are probably benefiting from our nearest neighbour looking very much under control.

Not so much herd imunity.with us at 13%.

Cases will probably be on the floor everywhere in europe come June due to seasonality of virus anyhow.The benefit they have over us and europe now brings respite to their population, to politicians, to businesses.

Strazdas · 07-04-2021 01:19AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Theyve won.

Know when your beaten.

They are getting herd immunity benefits as we speak which gives them options and relief from pandemnic now. Look at the state they were in this time last year. We are probably benefiting from our nearest neighbour looking very much under control.

Not so much herd imunity.with us at 13%.

Cases will probably be on the floor everywhere in europe come June due to seasonality of virus anyhow.The benefit they have over us and europe now brings respite to their population, to politicians, to businesses.

There's no actual race, but all that has happened this year is that the UK got off to a flying start whilst the EU was sluggish to get going. But that is clearly going to rapidly change in the next 12 weeks if EU deliveries go to plan.

And so what if they open their shops and hospitality a few short weeks ahead of the EU? It hardly means anything in the general scheme of things.

franciscanpunk · 07-04-2021 01:22AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I put up a link to an article earlier today where a member of the EMA said that there are links between AZ and blood clotting. He said that as of now they still consider the risks not important enough to stop people taking the vaccine but admitted that this could change.
I've had a relative suffer from blood clotting issues in the past.
I don't know enough about it to be comfortable taking this vaccine. If the EMA are admitting that they don't know enough about it yet to be certain then I'm definitely not taking it.

Fair enough it doesnt affect me but if i was your local supermarket worker, family member, doctor, etc I would feel that not only are you putting yourself at unnecessary greater risk you would also be putting me at extra risk too.

Micky 32 · 07-04-2021 01:22AM

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2021/03/23/us-travel-reports-that-biden-will-lift-eu-uk-travel-ban-by-mid-may/amp/

Good to see the USA considering this. Based on their vaccination program success.

07-04-2021 01:27AM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's no actual race, but all that has happened this year is that the UK got off to a flying start whilst the EU was sluggish to get going. But that is clearly going to rapidly change in the next 12 weeks if EU deliveries go to plan.

And so what if they open their shops and hospitality a few short weeks ahead of the EU? It hardly means anything in the general scheme of things.

I know. I just have a little vaccine envy. We just have to wait a few extra months. I think come the end of April we will be in much better shape. My view on this year if individually and collectively we can get to end of May we will get respite from this virus. This will give us a chance to get ourselves in good shape over the summer to properly control and live with this virus without these horrible lockdowns ever again.

Pablo Escobar · 07-04-2021 01:51AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Diasagree with your entire post.

We have vaccinated 13%.They have vaccinated 55%. Uk have not failed to provide anybody with second doses.

Off book you.mean not sticking what was done in trial. Luke oneill posted only yesterday first dose gives most benefit and protection. Its not rocket science. NI have less than fifty cases a day to our 500 and they are opening up more rapidly. They have maximised the benefit of their supply. We have concentrated.it in too small a pool of people. We would probably be over 20% of first doses if we extended pfzier jabs. That gives a great lift to rest of population waiting and reduces overall disease in.community quicker.

Can you at least make an attempt to compare apples with apples? You’re comparing 1 dose achieved in Ireland versus both doses in the UK. On a like for like basis for both doses it 19 per 100 for Ireland v 55 per 100 for the UK. Remember 55 is only just over 25% of the total (ignoring single dose vaccines).

Now the supply in the EU looks very good in the near term. That gap is likely to close.

07-04-2021 02:01AM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Can you at least make an attempt to compare apples with apples? You’re comparing 1 dose achieved in Ireland versus both doses in the UK. On a like for like basis for both doses it 19 per 100 for Ireland v 55 per 100 for the UK. Remember 55 is only just over 25% of the total (ignoring single dose vaccines).

Now the supply in the EU looks very good in the near term. That gap is likely to close.

Disagree. Im talking first doses 13% ireland to 55% uk. Im ignoring second doses altogether for comparision. First doses matter more to bring down spread. Covid has nowhere to go in UK with so many people with at least one dose. Our 13 per cent with at least one dose leaves alot of population vulnerable to infection and bigger pool for covid to infect. The quicker you give population some protection to start with the better. Second dose is a bonus for longer term imunity.

07-04-2021 02:09AM

quokula wrote: »

It’s down to the fact that when these decisions were being made, the UK was being decimated with 1000+ deaths per day. They were desperate and they had to gamble and try the unproven route to get themselves out of catastrophic trouble.

Ireland and most of Europe were in a much healthier position in terms of infection rates and were able to more comfortably follow the manufacturers guidelines. Obviously the risk has ended up paying off for the UK and they’re looking better right now, but only after suffering enormously to get where they are.

We've all suffered enormously. Its no point saying we were good six months ago when they wernt.Tell that to the man in the street. People need respite now. UK strategy has given them that respite. We need to deliver. Its going to be a crazy 3 months.

JTMan · 07-04-2021 06:40AM

EMA to launch probe into Sputnik V vaccine, the FT reports here (paywall).

- The European Medicines Agency’s have launched a probe into whether Sputnik V trials met “good clinical practice” standards.
- Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine may have contravened ethical and scientific standards.
- Russian military were used in the trial. Some who took part described being pressured to do so by their superiors. Russia denies the reports.
- Russia have also slightly delayed the EMA inspecting production facilities in Russia.

Does not sound like the EMA will approve Sputnik V soon.

Pablo Escobar · 07-04-2021 07:35AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Disagree. Im talking first doses 13% ireland to 55% uk. Im ignoring second doses altogether for comparision. First doses matter more to bring down spread. Covid has nowhere to go in UK with so many people with at least one dose. Our 13 per cent with at least one dose leaves alot of population vulnerable to infection and bigger pool for covid to infect. The quicker you give population some protection to start with the better. Second dose is a bonus for longer term imunity.

What are you not getting here? Seriously, this is quite simple. 55 doses out of 100 in the UK is both doses. Single doses in the UK is just under 47 per 100. So, you’re not comparing apples with apples. If you do a little digging around supply staging and vaccine use policy, there’s every chance to EU overtakes UK. Of course that may not happen, nor should it be a concern to either side, but the gap is very likely close.

beggars_bush · 07-04-2021 08:00AM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's no actual race, but all that has happened this year is that the UK got off to a flying start whilst the EU was sluggish to get going. But that is clearly going to rapidly change in the next 12 weeks if EU deliveries go to plan.

And so what if they open their shops and hospitality a few short weeks ahead of the EU? It hardly means anything in the general scheme of things.

Many people think their life has ended as they cannot go shopping, go into a pub for a pint or out for a meal in a restaurant

Irish Stones · 07-04-2021 08:17AM

charlie14 wrote: »

That October 2022 date seems rather strange.
According to an Irish Examiner report, on Friday when inspecting a vaccination centre at Rome`s Leonardo da Vinci airport Mario Draghi noted that the pace, now running at 170,000 shots daily had picked up this month.

At that rate it would mean around 1 million shots per week. For a total population of 60 million, unless vaccine deliveries fall completely off a cliff or Draghi got his figures wrong, then it is difficult to see where this October 2022 date comes from.

The total number of shots for the last three days has been lower than the number of doses given on last Thursday or Friday alone, so it's clearly a slow down.
Draghi's aim is 500k doses per day, and so far the average is 220k, that means that every time frame Draghi made has to be doubled.
Yes, 220k/day means a little over 1 million shots per week, but this means only 500k+ people per week will be fully vaccinated.
So my maths say that it will takes a couple of years (about 100 weeks) to hit the target of 50 millions.
If things speed up a little, and no trouble, delays, lack of supply happen, those 100 weeks could become 70 weeks, that is a year and a half.

Pete_Cavan · 07-04-2021 08:28AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

The total number of shots for the last three days has been lower than the number of doses given on last Thursday or Friday alone, so it's clearly a slow down.

Are you familiar with the concept of weekends and how they differ from the standard working week. Note how the number of vaccines administered each day coincides exactly with the working week/weekend pattern. Now for the curveball; bank holidays!

seamie78 · 07-04-2021 08:33AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

The total number of shots for the last three days has been lower than the number of doses given on last Thursday or Friday alone, so it's clearly a slow down.
Draghi's aim is 500k doses per day, and so far the average is 220k, that means that every time frame Draghi made has to be doubled.
Yes, 220k/day means a little over 1 million shots per week, but this means only 500k+ people per week will be fully vaccinated.
So my maths say that it will takes a couple of years (about 100 weeks) to hit the target of 50 millions.
If things speed up a little, and no trouble, delays, lack of supply happen, those 100 weeks could become 70 weeks, that is a year and a half.

first point in relation to your maths, ignoring everything else wrong with your figures there are 7 days in a week, 220*7 gives 1.54 million doses at the lower number you quote, based on your figures 10% of eu doses are currently being administered in Ireland.

To summarise every part of your post is wrong down to the number of days in a week

VonLuck · 07-04-2021 08:35AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Are you familiar with the concept of weekends and how they differ from the standard working week. Note how the number of vaccines administered each day coincides exactly with the working week/weekend pattern. Now for the curveball; bank holidays!

I always wondered about that. Surely during a pandemic administering vaccines should be maintained at the same level over weekends. Is this factored in to the weekday figures i.e. they administer more Mon-Fri to account for a reduction at the weekend?

seamie78 · 07-04-2021 08:41AM

another way of looking at lower figures at weekends is excess capacity for when we get increased supply

Irish Stones · 07-04-2021 08:42AM

seamie78 wrote: »

first point in relation to your maths, ignoring everything else wrong with your figures there are 7 days in a week, 220*7 gives 1.54 million doses at the lower number you quote

Generally it's a little slower during the weekends, so I'd say that it's more like 120k-150k per day during the weekends.
On Easter day it was just 93k. On Monday, the figure was just 160k, if I don't go wrong.
So this matches what I said in my previous post "a little over 1 million". Let's say 1.5 million per week, it takes 33 weeks to hit 50 millions (33 weeks are 8 months), but we have to consider the second shots (another 33 weeks?), and we're at 16 months, that is July/August 2022.

To summarise every part of your post is wrong down to the number of days in a week

Are you still saying I'm wrong?

Polar101 · 07-04-2021 08:44AM

JTMan wrote: »

- Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine may have contravened ethical and scientific standards.

Wouldn't really be the biggest surprise news of the decade, if that was the case.

I still don't see Sputnik being a big hit in the west.

Irish Stones · 07-04-2021 08:45AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Are you familiar with the concept of weekends and how they differ from the standard working week. Note how the number of vaccines administered each day coincides exactly with the working week/weekend pattern. Now for the curveball; bank holidays!

We had been said that there are no holidays and weekends during the roll out, so no, I don't think that "weekend" has a meaning in this discussion.

Danzy · 07-04-2021 09:04AM

Polar101 wrote: »

Wouldn't really be the biggest surprise news of the decade, if that was the case.

I still don't see Sputnik being a big hit in the west.

If it works it should be a big hit.

Russia, America , Britain treated the development of vaccines as a war effort.

Given the economic cost it is.

No rush, we'll see how it goes approach of Europe is only going to do significant long-term damage to European countries.

seamie78 · 07-04-2021 09:04AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Generally it's a little slower during the weekends, so I'd say that it's more like 120k-150k per day during the weekends.
On Easter day it was just 93k. On Monday, the figure was just 160k, if I don't go wrong.
So this matches what I said in my previous post "a little over 1 million". Let's say 1.5 million per week, it takes 33 weeks to hit 50 millions (33 weeks are 8 months), but we have to consider the second shots (another 33 weeks?), and we're at 16 months, that is July/August 2022.

Are you still saying I'm wrong?

yeah as you are using the lowest possible figure you can come up with as opposed to predicted supplies, also the figure you quote of 220 is an average per day so therefore it the 93 you quote from sunday is completely irrelevant

ixoy · 07-04-2021 09:15AM

Danzy wrote: »

If it works it should be a big hit.

If it works, if people believe in it (look at AZ as to how people can lose faith in a Western vaccine) and, crucially, if they can manufacture enough supply then it might be a big hit.

Cork2021 · 07-04-2021 09:28AM

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1379712539722981376?s=21

Russman · 07-04-2021 09:32AM

Honestly I don't think there's a snowball's chance in he1l that Sputnik will be rolled out in Ireland ever. We have more than enough supply due from western companies, even if AZ were to go completely t1ts up.

eagle eye · 07-04-2021 09:32AM

Cork2021 wrote:

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

If they didn't have answers two days ago then I doubt it.

lbj666 · 07-04-2021 09:35AM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Hopefully this is the end of all the AZ crap!

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1379712539722981376?s=21

Somehow i doubt it will put an end to it.

Van.Bosch · 07-04-2021 09:50AM

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

1huge1 · 07-04-2021 10:01AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

936,087 doses administered as at Sunday 4th - increase of 3,763 since the day before.

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Sanjuro · 07-04-2021 10:02AM

1huge1 wrote: »

Between that and the 8,446 doses administrated on Saturday, I find that quite frustrating, we know massive supplies have come into Ireland in the last week that have yet to be used.

Assume GPs aren't vaccinating on weekends? Is that good enough (if we have the supply).

Easter Saturday and Sunday. Expect smaller than usual numbers for tomorrow too considering they'll be the numbers for Easter Monday.

CrabRevolution · 07-04-2021 10:04AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Theyve won.

Know when your beaten.

They are getting herd immunity benefits as we speak which gives them options and relief from pandemnic now. Look at the state they were in this time last year. We are probably benefiting from our nearest neighbour looking very much under control.

Not so much herd imunity.with us at 13%.

Cases will probably be on the floor everywhere in europe come June due to seasonality of virus anyhow.The benefit they have over us and europe now brings respite to their population, to politicians, to businesses.

You're right on that one any way; they have double our death rate and there's no way we'll ever catch them.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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