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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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Comments

  • #8522
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Nobody really does, this month is where it supposedly starts. It'll be good news for everyone if/when it does.


    Is there an explanation why Malta, which should be part of the EU and hence they should receive the same quota of vaccine as the rest of the Union, is at 11+ % of vaccinated people with two shots?

    It's twice as much as the rest of the EU. Are they receiving extra doses, even from non authorized manufacturers?


  • #8523
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,666 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    What does EU mean?
    As far as I know Italy has just announced to hit their target by end September 2022.
    It would be nice to know what EU means, what countries are counted in.


    Can you post a link for Italy by September 2022 please?
    So that we have a bit of context.


  • #8524
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Stark wrote: »
    Where did you see that. Worst case estimate for any EU country is September 2021. It wasn't one of those stupid calculators that assumed January/February levels of supply for the next two years was it?

    I’m finding it hard to believe Italy’s target will be late 2022.


  • #8525
    seamie78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 900 ✭✭✭seamie78


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    I’m finding it hard to believe Italy’s target will be late 2022.



    its not, anything that "Italian" poster posts can be ignored


  • #8526
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Stark wrote: »
    Where did you see that. Worst case estimate for any EU country is September 2021. It wasn't one of those stupid calculators that assumed January/February levels of supply for the next two years was it?


    It was said on TV today in my country (Italy).
    Due to different rates of vaccination across the country, some regions are slower than others. The last ones to hit the target will do that in late September 2022, that is nearly 18 months from now.
    This said, the country in its whole will hit the target by that date, so the EU won't hit the target by the date mentioned above.

    Unless some countries aren't taken into account, which might be fine too.


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  • #8527
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    seamie78 wrote: »
    its not, anything that "Italian" poster posts can be ignored


    I could anser you with a "good" word, but I won't.
    You are assuming I forge news overnight, but it's what the news on TV said today.
    There's a lack of doses, and no new supply is on sight. Second shots are at risk, and all te rest is a disaster.
    But if the EU say they hit the target, it's fine. We'll see that in a couple of months.


  • #8528
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    josip wrote: »
    Can you post a link for Italy by September 2022 please?
    So that we have a bit of context.


    It was a TV news an hour ago.


  • #8529
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,460 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    seamie78 wrote: »
    its not, anything that "Italian" poster posts can be ignored

    Its either completely made up or else based on Q1 vaccination rate. No part of Europe will be still vaccinating in 2022, unless it is booster shots.


  • #8530
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    I’m finding it hard to believe Italy’s target will be late 2022.


    We're at 5% after 3 months in, I'm not finding so hard to believe, tbh.


  • #8531
    josip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,666 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    I could anser you with a "good" word, but I won't.
    You are assuming I forge news overnight, but it's what the news on TV said today.
    There's a lack of doses, and no new supply is on sight. Second shots are at risk, and all te rest is a disaster.
    But if the EU say they hit the target, it's fine. We'll see that in a couple of months.
    Irish Stones wrote: »
    It was a TV news an hour ago.

    Can you post a link to this news please?
    It's unsubstantiated without a link and it's understandable if people who read your post question its veracity.


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  • #8532
    MrStuffins
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,446 ✭✭✭✭MrStuffins


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    It was a TV news an hour ago.

    Then a link to back it up should be easy to find i'd imagine?


  • #8533
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    josip wrote: »
    Can you post a link for Italy by September 2022 please?
    So that we have a bit of context.

    https://www.mediasetplay.mediaset.it/video/studioaperto/edizione-ore-1225-del-6-aprile_F310639101019101

    This is the link to replay the TV news that I talked about.
    I don't know if it can be viewed beyond our borders, but it it can, please go to 06:25 minutes in, you can see it with your eyes.


  • #8534
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    We're at 5% after 3 months in, I'm not finding so hard to believe, tbh.

    You can’t compare 2021 vs 2022. A lot can happen between now and then.


  • #8535
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    You can’t compare 2021 vs 2022. A lot can happen between now and then.


    Exactly, we don't know what can happen. And not necessarily only good things happen.
    We have evidence now of short supplies and difficulties in the logistics and roll out. Hopefully they will be all wiped away very soon, but we should also think and be prepared that things might not change.


  • #8536
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    Exactly, we don't know what can happen. And not necessarily only good things happen.
    We have evidence now of short supplies and difficulties in the logistics and roll out. Hopefully they will be all wiped away very soon, but we should also think and be prepared that things might not change.


    Either way September 2022 is bollox IMO.


  • #8537
    Apogee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee


    PhoenixParker wrote: »
    For anyone interested:

    Total E496k

    Table PEA04 here:

    https://data.cso.ie/table/PEA04

    (CSO data)

    Here's the same data for all the years.

    85+ 81200
    80-84 89800
    75-79 134100
    70-74 190800
    65-69 224200
    60-64 258900
    55-59 292700
    50-54 316000
    45-49 358500
    40-44 393700
    35-39 386500
    30-34 324000
    25-29 292200
    20-24 307200
    15-19 323900 (take 80% of this for 16-19)

    70+ 495900
    65-69 224200
    55-64 551600
    45-54 674500
    35-44 780200
    25-34 616200
    16-24 566320

    Total 3,908,920

    That's higher than the number quoted by Brian MacCraith for vaccinatable population (3.75M). I doubt if no of pregnant females would make up the difference.

    [edit] 59,796 births in 2019. So even if you assume all single births (no twins etc), doesn't make up the difference.


  • #8538
    emrys
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 213 ✭✭emrys


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    https://www.mediasetplay.mediaset.it/video/studioaperto/edizione-ore-1225-del-6-aprile_F310639101019101

    This is the link to replay the TV news that I talked about.
    I don't know if it can be viewed beyond our borders, but it it can, please go to 06:25 minutes in, you can see it with your eyes.

    I just watched it - the Italians are taking a regional approach they are basing the figures on current vaccination rates and extrapolating the figures to a finish date (not sure if thats everyone or 80%) but some regions on current rates will be done by october this year and others not for at least another 12 months.

    I started watching from the start - huge number of over 80's still to be vaccinated, some regions like lazio saying the could triple the rate of vaccination if the had the supply.

    So a bit of a mess


  • #8539
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    No idea what the situation is in Italy but that calculation seems like the ones in Ireland where individuals assumed the rate for the current week and used that to estimate Ireland would take until 2024 to have its population vaccinated.

    If the rate is expected to change you have to factor that in. You can't assume a constant rate. The error in the calculation will be disproportionate.


  • #8540
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭JTMan


    The FT have an interesting report today here (paywall) on the Valneva vaccine (French vaccine which is manufactured in Scotland):
    - The phase 1 and 2 study showed the jab gave more than 90 per cent of all study participants produced “significant” levels of antibodies to the virus.
    - This vaccine teaches the immune system to recognise many parts of the virus.
    - However, the company has been working with the UK government on whether to adapt the vaccine for variants of Sars-Cov-2.
    - This change means that Valneva will deliver the first 60m doses in the first quarter of 2022, rather than in 2021 as forecast. 100 million does ordered by the UK. It was also in discussions with the EU about a 60m dose order.
    - Might have a role to play as a booster.


  • #8541
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    emrys wrote: »
    I just watched it - the Italians are taking a regional approach they are basing the figures on current vaccination rates and extrapolating the figures to a finish date (not sure if thats everyone or 80%) but some regions on current rates will be done by october this year and others not for at least another 12 months.

    I started watching from the start - huge number of over 80's still to be vaccinated, some regions like lazio saying the could triple the rate of vaccination if the had the supply.

    So a bit of a mess


    I would like to compliment with you for your excellent understanding of my language!


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  • #8542
    Irish Stones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭Irish Stones


    Turtwig wrote: »
    No idea what the situation is in Italy but that calculation seems like the ones in Ireland where individuals assumed the rate for the current week and used that to estimate Ireland would take until 2024 to have its population vaccinated.

    If the rate is expected to change you have to factor that in. You can't assume a constant rate. The error in the calculation will be disproportionate.


    You are so right, but currently we have no evidence of any speed-up in sight, so people base their forecasts on the numbers we have had in the past 3 months.


  • #8543
    Apogee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,899 ✭✭✭Apogee


    Am I right in thinking the original vaccine allocation started at age 18 as per this post?

    It is now explicitly starting at age 16. That's an extra ~130K individuals.


  • #8544
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,627 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    ectoraige wrote: »
    Childminders probably aren't at that high an actual risk since children don't harbour and spread the virus as effectively as adults, but the perception of risk should certainly be no different to the risk the teacher unions claim. The lack of outcry is down to not having unions pushing their agenda.

    It's risk vs severity.

    Older people have lower risk of contracting the virus due to isolation/cocooning, but a high severity of death if they do get it.

    Teachers/ front line etc have high risk due to high level of contact, but low severity since they're younger and don't have preexisting conditions.

    So, high cases & low deaths is better than low cases & higher deaths.

    EDIT: Personally, I think it's the best approach. It's a PITA as I was up the list and now I'm near the bottom, but this will ultimately save lives.


  • #8545
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,469 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Apogee wrote: »
    Am I right in thinking the original vaccine allocation started at age 18 as per this post?

    It is now explicitly starting at age 16. That's an extra ~130K individuals.

    Yeah the provisional lists had everything starting aged 18, Pfizer was approved from 16 upwards hence the change


  • #8546
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭trellheim


    https://www.gov.ie/en/publications/?q=deliveries&sort_by=published_date


    List of government updates on vaccine deliveries so far. As can be seen updated avg weekly. Shots into arms updated with a 3/4 day delay on the usual Govt portals.


  • #8547
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,709 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Irish Stones wrote: »
    You are so right, but currently we have no evidence of any speed-up in sight, so people base their forecasts on the numbers we have had in the past 3 months.

    That October 2022 date seems rather strange.
    According to an Irish Examiner report, on Friday when inspecting a vaccination centre at Rome`s Leonardo da Vinci airport Mario Draghi noted that the pace, now running at 170,000 shots daily had picked up this month.

    At that rate it would mean around 1 million shots per week. For a total population of 60 million, unless vaccine deliveries fall completely off a cliff or Draghi got his figures wrong, then it is difficult to see where this October 2022 date comes from.


  • #8548
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭JTMan


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Yeah the provisional lists had everything starting aged 18, Pfizer was approved from 16 upwards hence the change

    How could this mistake have occurred? The issue was not just with the provisional list. It has being known for some time that the Pfizer vaccine was going to be approved for 16+ rather than 18+. The term "adults" is overused and all government planning documents should day "16+".

    I guess the vaccination of 16 and 17 year olds will require parental consent? and hence a slightly different approach?


  • #8549
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,787 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Someone shouldn’t have opened their mouth:
    https://twitter.com/afp/status/1379417650305118213?s=21


  • #8550
    Hococop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,741 ✭✭✭Hococop


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Someone shouldn’t have opened their mouth:
    https://twitter.com/afp/status/1379417650305118213?s=21

    So they jumped the gun?


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  • #8551
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,469 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    JTMan wrote: »
    How could this mistake have occurred? The issue was not just with the provisional list. It has being known for some time that the Pfizer vaccine was going to be approved for 16+ rather than 18+. The term "adults" is overused and all government planning documents should day "16+".

    I guess the vaccination of 16 and 17 year olds will require parental consent? and hence a slightly different approach?

    What mistake ??

    It was a living document and the post references it in December and the document was updated to reflect the approval that was given later in December. That's how they work, nothing is a final version.


This discussion has been closed.
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