Grand National 2021

GillLebowski · 23-03-2021 5:26pm

Yeah, not in the entries for the Grand National... I went looking for him yesterday actually and noticed it :pac:

No articles or anything as to why he's not running but I'm guessing he was taken out at the last stage along with Tiger Roll too...

RivetingRoger · 23-03-2021 5:56pm

GillLebowski wrote: »

Yeah, not in the entries for the Grand National... I went looking for him yesterday actually and noticed it :pac:

No articles or anything as to why he's not running but I'm guessing he was taken out at the last stage along with Tiger Roll too...

Paddy Still have him in the market, and its not NRNB.
Epic sh*thousery

GillLebowski · 23-03-2021 6:07pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Paddy Still have him in the market, and its not NRNB.
Epic sh*thousery

Yeah, I thought my eyes were lying because I couldn't see him when I checked on 365 or betfair... Had to double check with the entries... Was nearly an expensive mistake...

Morgans · 24-03-2021 1:01pm

Labaik wrote: »

O Leary's are dead right. This horse hasnt won a Grade 1 over fences and hes been given a rating of 168. Id of pulled him meself, what a performance yesterday and one of the best training performances you'll ever see getting him back to his best at 11 after 2 gruelling GN wins. The handicapper has Easyland rated 167 he was bet to beat that hound Alpha des Obeaux yesterday and Some Neck whos a handicapper :pac:

So he wins the grand national - as easily as i've seen a grand national win - by 3l off 159 and having won two grand nationals he is bitching and moaning about a rating 7lbs higher - 166, not 168.

It is on his grand national runs, not his hurdles ratings or any regular park course on which his rating is based.

Remember the unfortunate line from the o'leary's was that he deserves to be rated in the 150s as he is in obvious decline. Something that was clearly shown up to be utter BS at cheltenham. As you said 'back to his best'.

NaiveMelodies · 24-03-2021 2:16pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Paddy Still have him in the market, and its not NRNB.
Epic sh*thousery

It is NRNB. Quite clear and obvious.

They don't have him in the market anymore. He's in the Irish GN market.

GillLebowski · 24-03-2021 3:06pm

Morgans wrote: »

So he wins the grand national - as easily as i've seen a grand national win - by 3l off 159 and having won two grand nationals he is bitching and moaning about a rating 7lbs higher - 166, not 168.

It is on his grand national runs, not his hurdles ratings or any regular park course on which his rating is based.

Remember the unfortunate line from the o'leary's was that he deserves to be rated in the 150s as he is in obvious decline. Something that was clearly shown up to be utter BS at cheltenham. As you said 'back to his best'.

Hold on, as easily as you've seen a grand national won? Did you just start watching the Grand National 3 years ago? One For Arthur won probably just as easy and off the top of my head from the years before that Pineau De Rai (sp?), Aurora's Encore and Don't Push It all won much easier... Some other years like Ballabriggs and Many Clouds were as close as Tiger's last win... To say he won it that easily is a joke.

Looking back, Don't Push It was raised 7lbs but he won it way easier than this 'easiest grand national you've ever seen'...

Ballabriggs was raised 10lbs after he won... This one I can't understand at all... Explains why he never won another race...

Aurora's Encore was raised 11lbs... Again, never won a race afterwards...

Pineau De Re was raised 8lbs... Won one more race off 5lbs lower than his original Grand National mark...

Many Clouds was raised 7lbs... Won a couple more races off that mark in fairness...

Rule The World was raised 7lbs... Ran once more but he had never won before the Grand National so he's an anomaly...

One For Arthur raised 6lbs... Never won again, although was notably difficult and had many setbacks...

Tiger Roll raised 9lbs the first year, 7lbs the year after... Has only ran in Cross Country races so nearly impossible to actually figure out what his real mark is...

I can't agree with the 9lbs from the first win... Everyone knows that once you win a Grand National you're slapped with a massive rating and you probably won't win a race again unless it gets lowered... They had relaxed a bit on this in the previous years so I don't know why they went so hefty for the first win... Considering the horse he beat in a photo finish was only raised 6lbs...

You might argue that that doesn't matter because he won it the next year, but it should still matter when it comes to the handicapping system, 7lbs would've been fair, just like last years.. In which case he'd be running off 164 and they wouldn't really have had too much to argue with and if they pulled him over that, they'd seem ridiculous... The difference 2lbs makes can be a lot when it comes to a Grand National... At least if he was rated 164 having been risen 7lbs again (even though it was a few seconds longer than One For Arthur and Many Clouds who were only raised 6 and 7lbs) he would probably be running again this year.

As much as I don't agree with the O'Leary's I can see what they were trying to do. If he had been risen 4lbs instead of 7, he'd be running.. So it makes sense to look back at his first grand national and wonder if they only raised him 6/7lbs instead of 9 would he be running this year?

I can completely understand them taking him out of the race. Sure, everyone would love to see him go for his three in a row, but if he's running off a mark higher than he should be what's the point? Get beaten by other horses who are ahead of the handicapper? Lose the whole "aura" around Tiger Roll then... Have him fall in a race he doesn't have as good a chance of winning as he should have? No thanks...

And you can't claim he's back to his best after one Cross Country run? On what we've always been told has been his favourite ground, against a horse that hates that ground, who hadn't ran since November, and the time before that was a year previous... Sure, the race looked good, his run looked good, but you can't claim that after that one race where everything suited him that he's back to his best...

Morgans · 24-03-2021 5:06pm

GillLebowski wrote: »

Hold on, as easily as you've seen a grand national won? Did you just start watching the Grand National 3 years ago? One For Arthur won probably just as easy and off the top of my head from the years before that Pineau De Rai (sp?), Aurora's Encore and Don't Push It all won much easier... Some other years like Ballabriggs and Many Clouds were as close as Tiger's last win... To say he won it that easily is a joke.

Looking back, Don't Push It was raised 7lbs but he won it way easier than this 'easiest grand national you've ever seen'...

Ballabriggs was raised 10lbs after he won... This one I can't understand at all... Explains why he never won another race...

Aurora's Encore was raised 11lbs... Again, never won a race afterwards...

Pineau De Re was raised 8lbs... Won one more race off 5lbs lower than his original Grand National mark...

Many Clouds was raised 7lbs... Won a couple more races off that mark in fairness...

Rule The World was raised 7lbs... Ran once more but he had never won before the Grand National so he's an anomaly...

One For Arthur raised 6lbs... Never won again, although was notably difficult and had many setbacks...

Tiger Roll raised 9lbs the first year, 7lbs the year after... Has only ran in Cross Country races so nearly impossible to actually figure out what his real mark is...

I can't agree with the 9lbs from the first win... Everyone knows that once you win a Grand National you're slapped with a massive rating and you probably won't win a race again unless it gets lowered... They had relaxed a bit on this in the previous years so I don't know why they went so hefty for the first win... Considering the horse he beat in a photo finish was only raised 6lbs...

You might argue that that doesn't matter because he won it the next year, but it should still matter when it comes to the handicapping system, 7lbs would've been fair, just like last years.. In which case he'd be running off 164 and they wouldn't really have had too much to argue with and if they pulled him over that, they'd seem ridiculous... The difference 2lbs makes can be a lot when it comes to a Grand National... At least if he was rated 164 having been risen 7lbs again (even though it was a few seconds longer than One For Arthur and Many Clouds who were only raised 6 and 7lbs) he would probably be running again this year.

As much as I don't agree with the O'Leary's I can see what they were trying to do. If he had been risen 4lbs instead of 7, he'd be running.. So it makes sense to look back at his first grand national and wonder if they only raised him 6/7lbs instead of 9 would he be running this year?

I can completely understand them taking him out of the race. Sure, everyone would love to see him go for his three in a row, but if he's running off a mark higher than he should be what's the point? Get beaten by other horses who are ahead of the handicapper? Lose the whole "aura" around Tiger Roll then... Have him fall in a race he doesn't have as good a chance of winning as he should have? No thanks...

And you can't claim he's back to his best after one Cross Country run? On what we've always been told has been his favourite ground, against a horse that hates that ground, who hadn't ran since November, and the time before that was a year previous... Sure, the race looked good, his run looked good, but you can't claim that after that one race where everything suited him that he's back to his best...

Jaysus.

Easiest winner of a Grand National i've seen on tape is L'escargot. Tiger Roll could have been called the winner of the last national run a mile out and I've never seen a horse have the race won so far out. The winning distance is close to irrelevant.

I can't agree with the 9lbs from the first win... Everyone knows that once you win a Grand National you're slapped with a massive rating and you probably won't win a race again unless it gets lowered...

And he won the most valuable race of the year in a hack the following year. Kinda bursts a mile wide hole in your argument. The rest of your post is just rambling stream of consciousness that ends up arguing with yourself. 164 would have been fair, but 166 is ridiculous and not worrying about. A 7lb raise for a National winner is fair but not for Tiger Roll. Even if the handicapper was fair in doing so, he shouldnt have done.

The fact is that he would be second favourite if going for the race now, off 166. Having won the most valuable race in NH racing twice and trying to bully the handicapper into saying he was in decline - which he wasnt and isnt.

I like the O'Leary's but you wouldn't catch me carrying the amount of water you are doing for them here.

GillLebowski · 25-03-2021 1:46pm

Morgans wrote: »

Jaysus.

Easiest winner of a Grand National i've seen on tape is L'escargot. Tiger Roll could have been called the winner of the last national run a mile out and I've never seen a horse have the race won so far out. The winning distance is close to irrelevant.

And he won the most valuable race of the year in a hack the following year. Kinda bursts a mile wide hole in your argument. The rest of your post is just rambling stream of consciousness that ends up arguing with yourself. 164 would have been fair, but 166 is ridiculous and not worrying about. A 7lb raise for a National winner is fair but not for Tiger Roll. Even if the handicapper was fair in doing so, he shouldnt have done.

The fact is that he would be second favourite if going for the race now, off 166. Having won the most valuable race in NH racing twice and trying to bully the handicapper into saying he was in decline - which he wasnt and isnt.

I like the O'Leary's but you wouldn't catch me carrying the amount of water you are doing for them here.

If you could see that a mile out you must've made an absolute fortune on in-running betting :rolleyes: I don't see how you can say the winning distance is irrelevant... He was driven to the line and only won by less than 3 lengths, I've rarely ever heard anyone say that the winning distance is irrelevant, unless a horse idles in front or only picks up when another comes near it... Magic of Light realistically ran within 3 lengths of Tiger Roll and there's absolutely no conceivable way that you can say different...

164 would've been fair and wouldn't leave the O'Leary's with any argument really (being raised 14lbs for a victory by a short head and a victory by 2 3/4 lengths)... 166 isn't and as such they've pulled the horse...

You're missing the point... A 7lbs raise is fair enough, I'd prefer to see it around 5/6 depending on the way they've won so they actually have a chance of winning off a new mark but 7lbs seems fair enough I suppose... The whole argument is about him being raised 9lbs for the first victory. The only reason he'd be second favourite for the race now is because he's the only horse in the field that's as close to a household name as possible, and because he won the Cross Country on level weights with the rest of the horses in that field who'd have little/no chance in a Grand National now...

He seemed like he was in decline and if he had ran that badly over fences instead of over hurdles his mark would've been dropped a lb or two I'd suspect... Again, the cross country was raced at level weights, with the only horse rated even close to him not performing whatsoever, on Tiger's preferred ground... Sure, it looked fantastic but if he was entered for the Grand National with soft in the description off this weight I wouldn't be touching him... I think he wouldn't have a great chance of winning off that weight depending on the ground and obviously the O'Leary's think the same.

I enjoy Michael O'Leary, I wouldn't say I like him or Eddie, but I think they've made the right call in pulling him out of the Grand National. Sure, you can look through rose-tinted glasses and say we'd all loved to have seen him win a third, but if they thought he could win a third, surely they'd run him in it... Thinking that they pulled him out as a PR stunt or along those lines are ridiculous. They're leaving racing in a few years so they'd definitely run him and make history while they still could... They argued about his mark in 2019 too but still entered him, so I'd say they actually feel the mark is too high now to win...

Morgans · 25-03-2021 7:12pm

GillLebowski wrote: »

The whole argument is about him being raised 9lbs for the first victory.

Its not.

You are arguing against yourself continually.

Tiger Roll's handicap mark now is 167 in the UK.

GillLebowski · 26-03-2021 3:00pm

Morgans wrote: »

Its not.

You are arguing against yourself continually.

Tiger Roll's handicap mark now is 167 in the UK.

Getting raised 6lbs instead of 9lbs the first year and probably being raised 7 lbs for last year would leave his mark at 164 so I'm not arguing with myself at all actually...

Your only argument so far is that he should've been raised 7lbs last year, which I haven't disagreed with, sure I'd like to see it 1/2lbs lower but he deserved to get bumped up...

And you're arguing that he's back to his best and ran to that mark or higher at Cheltenham... Against horses who wouldn't make the top 10 in a grand national... At level weights... On his favourite race, the Cross Country... On his preferred ground which was a huge disadvantage to any other rival horses... :rolleyes:

fsfg · 26-03-2021 6:01pm

Morgans wrote: »

Its not.

You are arguing against yourself continually.

Tiger Roll's handicap mark now is 167 in the UK.

Horses get dropped and raised again if the show more. Do you not feel that with no form for a couple of years his rating should have been dropped considering his age (and the miles on the clock)

Morgans · 26-03-2021 7:39pm

GillLebowski wrote: »

Getting raised 6lbs instead of 9lbs the first year and probably being raised 7 lbs for last year would leave his mark at 164 so I'm not arguing with myself at all actually...

Your only argument so far is that he should've been raised 7lbs last year, which I haven't disagreed with, sure I'd like to see it 1/2lbs lower but he deserved to get bumped up...

And you're arguing that he's back to his best and ran to that mark or higher at Cheltenham... Against horses who wouldn't make the top 10 in a grand national... At level weights... On his favourite race, the Cross Country... On his preferred ground which was a huge disadvantage to any other rival horses... :rolleyes:

I didnt argue that he was back to his best. That was the person I was replying to.

What was ridiculous was O'Leary believing that he should be rated in the 150s. And what is ridiculous is people, like you, believing that he is taking some sort of principled stand to withdraw the horse when it as rated 166 rather than an act of pettiness, and of course timed in the middle of the Elliot controversy. Trying yourself in knots to say 164 would have been acceptable but the 2lbs will mean that he is right to withdraw. That somehow the handicap mark should note the ground. Nonsense.

What cheltenham proved is that the handicapper was right to think that Tiger Rolls previous runs - on the flat, over hurdles, and his previous run on the cross-country were not representative of his true form. When ready, he was likely to return to his grand nationall winning form. I personally thought the horse was gone, but I was very wrong.

I think he has every right to be raised 7llbs having won his second national and is now 1bs well in. One of the very few in the race to be running off a handicap mark less than he should have been. When you look at some of the other ratings, its amazing to me that he has any defence. Continue to wrap yourself in knots defending it.

Morgans · 26-03-2021 7:47pm

fsfg wrote: »

Horses get dropped and raised again if the show more. Do you not feel that with no form for a couple of years his rating should have been dropped considering his age (and the miles on the clock)

Age and miles on the clock are irrelevant.

You are right that horses get dropped and raised again, but if you are going to run your horse in a flat race, in a Grade 2 hurdle don't expect the handicapper to be fooled into thinking that the form shown relates to his grand national chances.

If owners decide not to run your horse in races where he can show form, should the handicapper be fooled? When he was ready to show his form (at Cheltenham) he proved that his previous races were not his true form. Had he finished tailed off, those claiming the O'Leary's were right would have some leg to stand on.

As it stands, they have none.

longshotvalue · 26-03-2021 9:33pm

In fairness tiger is rated on his national wins and in the general NH context he’s not really a grade1 horse . They own him and have every right not to run him, he has nothing to prove ( and is definitely a couple of pounds too high ) In terms of legacy adding an Irish national would be better. 2 or 3 nationals doesn’t really matter unless your itv and want a bigger audience.

I hope he goes for the Irish national , but you’d feel he’ll have to give a lot of weight to unexposed novices , without the advantages of a specialist advantage.

Any way no matter what he does , it’s hard to find anything like him in the past or future.

JP Liz V1 · 06-04-2021 12:45pm

Is a full list of runners out yet?

longshotvalue · 06-04-2021 1:33pm

I wonder if Bet365 will be doing their unbelievable offer this year. Most fun of the year getting €250 of bets for €125

dmakc · 06-04-2021 4:04pm

longshotvalue wrote: »

I wonder if Bet365 will be doing their unbelievable offer this year. Most fun of the year getting €250 of bets for €125

I'm not sure whether their poor Cheltenham offers should give us hope or quench it

maximo31 · 06-04-2021 6:36pm

Grand National preview on ATR this evening. :
https://national.attheraces.com/national-preview-night

finbarrk · 06-04-2021 9:31pm

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is a full list of runners out yet?

Declarations Thursday I would imagine.

finbarrk · 06-04-2021 9:32pm

longshotvalue wrote: »

I wonder if Bet365 will be doing their unbelievable offer this year. Most fun of the year getting €250 of bets for €125

Yeah. I had forgotten about that. It was a good offer.

Xander10 · 06-04-2021 9:33pm

is Tiger Roll definitely out?

Plasandrunt · 07-04-2021 1:30am

Xander10 wrote: »

is Tiger Roll definitely out?

He is declared for the Bowl on Thursday so won't be running in the National

mistermiyagi · 07-04-2021 8:59am

Plasandrunt wrote: »

He is declared for the Bowl on Thursday so won't be running in the National

He won't be running in the National as he was scratched from the entries a few weeks back. Nothing to do with being entered for the bowl.

piplip87 · 07-04-2021 12:36pm

Any Second Now for me. Would be delighted for Ted to win it again.

If the Tiger wins tomorrow does it show how bad British Chasers are thus year or how badly Elliot and O'Leary have underestimated the Tiger

NaiveMelodies · 07-04-2021 3:50pm

piplip87 wrote: »

Any Second Now for me. Would be delighted for Ted to win it again.

If the Tiger wins tomorrow does it show how bad British Chasers are thus year or how badly Elliot and O'Leary have underestimated the Tiger

They pulled him two weeks after the weights were announced, a couple of days after the BHA more or less said Elliott wasn't welcome in Britain. It wasn't a coincidence.
An ego driven decision that I'd imagine they've been massively regretting since the Cross Country. No other reason to pull him at that stage.
1/100 he'd be lining up on Saturday had the Elliott incident not occurred.

maximo31 · 07-04-2021 4:13pm

Another Preview night for those that might be interested :
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/aintree/events-tickets/grand-national-preview-night/

08-04-2021 7:42am

Burrows Saint (20/1 AP) , and Canelo (25/1 NRNB) both EW for me.

Imhof Tank · 08-04-2021 7:56am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

They pulled him two weeks after the weights were announced, a couple of days after the BHA more or less said Elliott wasn't welcome in Britain. It wasn't a coincidence.
An ego driven decision that I'd imagine they've been massively regretting since the Cross Country. No other reason to pull him at that stage.
1/100 he'd be lining up on Saturday had the Elliott incident not occurred.

Agree the O'Learys pulled him out purely because of being thick about the Gordon thing but it could actualy all work out well.

As in if he wins the grade 1 today, on top of the 2 Nationals, would that not add to his legend - put him a notch above Red Rum in Aintree folklore?

I think that's their angle anyway. They could have run for a lot more €€ at Fairyhouse.

Dr. Bre · 08-04-2021 8:52am

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Agree the O'Learys pulled him out purely because of being thick about the Gordon thing but it could actualy all work out well.

As in if he wins the grade 1 today, on top of the 2 Nationals, would that not add to his legend - put him a notch above Red Rum in Aintree folklore?

I think that's their angle anyway. They could have run for a lot more €€ at Fairyhouse.

If he wins today should he have been running in gold cups last few years then ?

Kid Charlemagne · 08-04-2021 9:27am

Sneezy Coates has come through again gents

Grand National 2021

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