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Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

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    #9812
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Darwin


    If I believed in conspiracy theories, a spike in numbers in late May would suit the NPHET/RTE regime perfectly, so they have a legitimate excuse to keep us locked up again for the summer. Interesting article published in the IT today:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-to-keep-schools-open-after-easter-1.4523227
    The most effective way of suppressing the R number is by closing schools and univsersities. A little late to the game, but at least it is a start by acknowledging it.


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    #9813
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Darwin wrote: »
    If I believed in conspiracy theories, a spike in numbers in late May would suit the NPHET/RTE regime perfectly, so they have a legitimate excuse to keep us locked up again for the summer. Interesting article published in the IT today:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-to-keep-schools-open-after-easter-1.4523227
    The most effective way of suppressing the R number is by closing schools and univsersities. A little late to the game, but at least it is a start by acknowledging it.

    Where is this bizarre belief that NPHET and RTE want lockdowns coming from.

    Opening the schools and universities over Christmas was also a disaster.

    The represent 20% of the population. Controlling only 20% of the population is the most effective way of suppressing the virus? Hmmm


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    #9814
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where is this bizarre belief that NPHET and RTE want lockdowns coming from.

    Opening the schools and universities over Christmas was also a disaster.

    The represent 20% of the population. Controlling only 20% of the population is the most effective way of suppressing the virus? Hmmm

    One would strongly suspect the schools contributed in a significant way to the spike in numbers around Christmas. The author of that IT article cites studies in the Netherlands and the UK. Is there something the rest of us are missing then when it comes to Ireland?


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    #9815
    DSN
    Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭DSN


    combat14 wrote: »
    well that seems to be nphets plan - whether the govt will go with it remains to be seen:

    Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn gave a presentation to a Cabinet Committee on Covid-19 this evening which sources at the meeting described as “grim”.

    One source said Nphet want to hold off easing restrictions significantly for another four to eight weeks to reduce the risk of another wave of the virus. (Irish Indo)

    still looks like all school kids back anyway 12 april regardless at the moment so most parents can breath a sigh of relief

    What's grim is your constant moaning miserable negative attitude.


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    #9816
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    Darwin wrote: »
    One would strongly suspect the schools contributed in a significant way to the spike in numbers around Christmas. The author of that IT article cites studies in the Netherlands and the UK. Is there something the rest of us are missing then when it comes to Ireland?

    I don't understand this though. Schools were back in September. Cases started to slowly rise due to both schools being back and the weather getting colder so socialising moved indoors. Then we closed retail in mid-October until early December, but kept schools open. Cases fell to 100 a day. It was only when retail and hospitality opened, along with people going to each others houses on Christmas Day that infections sharply spiked. So it's clear to me that retail and hospitality are by far the reason why infections spiked in late December/early January.

    Yes, of course movement of 20% of the population is going to increase infections. And with the UK variant now, the closure of retail and hospitality and keeping schools open is going to have a limited effect on reducing infections. Opening schools is probably the reason we are plateauing now. But closing schools and opening retail and restaurants is going to make infections sharply spike again. The problem with opening cafes and restaurants is that it is basically carte blanche to allowing people to socialise in their homes, whereas opening schools does not have the same effect.

    We can't have another 8 weeks of full lockdown, where everything including schools are closed again. People will not adhere to it, we all know that.

    The only way out of this is not more restrictions, its vaccinations. We just have to keep trucking on the way we are, and hopefully by the end of April we will have enough of the over 60's and vulnerable with at least their first shot. That means we can keep schools open, and open retail in May, and open hospitality in June. It's the only way out of this.


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    #9817
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Darwin wrote: »
    One would strongly suspect the schools contributed in a significant way to the spike in numbers around Christmas. The author of that IT article cites studies in the Netherlands and the UK. Is there something the rest of us are missing then when it comes to Ireland?

    What explains the declining numbers until restrictions were lifted at the end of November then?


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    #9818
    Chopper Dave
    Registered Users Posts: 107 ✭✭Chopper Dave


    Icyseanfitz wrote: »
    9 months? what kids are out 9 months?

    If the kids who have not yet returned to school (Secondary) do not go back during April, then they will have been out of school for 9 months by the time schools reopen again in September.


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    #9819
    Icyseanfitz
    Registered Users Posts: 7,409 ✭✭✭Icyseanfitz


    Chopper Dave wrote: »
    If the kids who have not yet returned to school (Secondary) do not go back during April, then they will have been out of school for 9 months by the time schools reopen again in September.

    Oh I see your counting school holidays... Which kids get every year.

    Don't worry they will all be back after Easter.


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    #9820
    deiseindublin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭deiseindublin


    I see Indo flagging that there will no longer be prioritisation for Education Staff, in front of full classrooms of children.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/major-overhaul-of-vaccine-roll-out-to-see-people-vaccinated-based-on-their-age-40256574.html


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    #9821
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    I'm not sure that will solvethe problem that they think it will. Surely a young SNA or special school teacher should be vaccinated ahead of someone a bit older who works from home? Does it also mean that prisoners/those in direct provision etc. will also be left until their age cohort in spite of them being unable to social distance in many cases?


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    #9822
    jrosen
    Registered Users Posts: 1,629 ✭✭✭jrosen


    I just read that article that your job wont mean anything when it comes to vaccine rollout. I cant make sense of that myself. To think someone who can work from home could be vaccinated before someone who is in a higher risk environment is nuts.


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    #9823
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Deleted User wrote: »
    What explains the declining numbers until restrictions were lifted at the end of November then?

    The cumulative age covid rate chart per 100K for week 47, from the HPSC, showed the age group 0 to 18 were the largest age cohort of confirmed Covid cases. At the time NPHET attributed the outbreaks to as being recorded in private homes, which definitely did not spread around school. Not a chance.


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    #9824
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭Darwin


    JDD wrote: »
    I don't understand this though. Schools were back in September. Cases started to slowly rise due to both schools being back and the weather getting colder so socialising moved indoors. Then we closed retail in mid-October until early December, but kept schools open. Cases fell to 100 a day. It was only when retail and hospitality opened, along with people going to each others houses on Christmas Day that infections sharply spiked. So it's clear to me that retail and hospitality are by far the reason why infections spiked in late December/early January.

    Yes, of course movement of 20% of the population is going to increase infections. And with the UK variant now, the closure of retail and hospitality and keeping schools open is going to have a limited effect on reducing infections. Opening schools is probably the reason we are plateauing now. But closing schools and opening retail and restaurants is going to make infections sharply spike again. The problem with opening cafes and restaurants is that it is basically carte blanche to allowing people to socialise in their homes, whereas opening schools does not have the same effect.

    We can't have another 8 weeks of full lockdown, where everything including schools are closed again. People will not adhere to it, we all know that.

    The only way out of this is not more restrictions, its vaccinations. We just have to keep trucking on the way we are, and hopefully by the end of April we will have enough of the over 60's and vulnerable with at least their first shot. That means we can keep schools open, and open retail in May, and open hospitality in June. It's the only way out of this.

    With respect to the figures in the run up to Christmas, at week 49 schools ranked 2nd for clusters & outbreaks, after household transmissions. Sure lifting restrictions had a further effect, but schools played their part too.
    I'm not advocating for more restrictions at all, just a little bit of honesty about the risks when schools reopen. I absolutely want to see retail open and society returning to normal, but they need to get on with the vaccination programme.


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    #9825
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    History Queen wrote: »
    I'm not sure that will solvethe problem that they think it will. Surely a young SNA or special school teacher should be vaccinated ahead of someone a bit older who works from home? Does it also mean that prisoners/those in direct provision etc. will also be left until their age cohort in spite of them being unable to social distance in many cases?




    We are moving to the UK model, do it by age. Virus seems to have least effect on the 20-40 group, so makes sense to get the older groups done first.


    All signs from the UK, this is a success, so its good we are changing to adapt to results seen in other countries.


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    #9826
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    We are moving to the UK model, do it by age. Virus seems to have least effect on the 20-40 group, so makes sense to get the older groups done first.


    All signs from the UK, this is a success, so its good we are changing to adapt to results seen in other countries.

    Did the uk not prioritise some sectors such as special school staff? I thought they did? Perhaps not. I'd like to see their testing protocols around schools brought in here.


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    #9827
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I guess education will continue to be disrupted due to staff being out on Covid leave so. Classes and year groups will continue to be sent home due to no staff available, even leaving aside actual school outbreaks. Seems like a bizarre choice given the supposedly massive concern expressed over the importance of school attendance. There may be no concern for the health of school staff, but I thought there was huge concern over the education of children!


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    #9828
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    History Queen wrote: »
    Did the uk not prioritise some sectors such as special school staff? I thought they did? Perhaps not. I'd like to see their testing protocols around schools brought in here.

    Didnt think so.


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    #9829
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    araic88 wrote: »
    As a teacher, I feel really upset by this.
    In reality, it would have been quite possible that the summer holidays would come before we'd get vaccinated anyway, but I can't wrap my head around them saying that we're not at any extra risk because of our jobs. I certainly feel very vulnerable at work, like a sitting duck waiting to hear of cases in my class.

    Friends and relatives of mine will be vaccinated before me, even though they've been working from home all along. I have nearly thirty pupils that I'm desperately trying to help after they were out of school for so long. They're all in different places in terms of progress so I have to work them individually whenever I can. Staying up at my desk away from them all isn't really an option. Most pupils & their families are being very careful but quite a few of them are having fabulous social lives that they tell us all about.

    F*ck this. I've really surprised myself by how anxious I feel with all these announcements & just before with all the speculation. January was just awful.
    Now I don't know am I more concerned about waiting for ever for a vaccine, or worrying will the unions go nuts and threaten strike action (which I do NOT want!)

    If a 30 year old gets it, there less chance of it being serious. If a 50 year gets it there is more chance of it being serious. Or should lock up all 50 year olds now?

    Also ye wont be working by the time it gets to the cohort under old or new system


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    #9830
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    Didnt think so.

    I actually went back to check where I had read it and it seems it was some local councils that prioritised them. It wasn't on a national scale. I hadn't copped that. Apologies.


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    #9831
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    If a 30 year old gets it, there less chance of it being serious. If a 50 year gets it there is more chance of it being serious. Or should lock up all 50 year olds now?

    But a 50 year old working from home is much less likely to catch it than a 30 year old working in a setting such as a creche, or as a carer etc.


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    #9832
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    History Queen wrote: »
    But a 50 year old working from home is much less likely to catch it than a 30 year old working in a setting such as a creche, or as a carer etc.

    But the aim is to get people back into the office. Get the economy going in cities so we can pay back the money the country borrowed


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    #9833
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I thought the main aim was to keep children in school!


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    #9834
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    But the aim is to get people back into the office. Get the economy going in cities so we can pay back the money the country borrowed

    That's the reason for vaccinating by age group as opposed to risk of exposure due to work environment?


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    #9835
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    History Queen wrote: »
    That's the reason for vaccinating by age group as opposed to risk of exposure due to work environment?

    Ok how about this. 30 year in creche gets vaccinated, then gets virus and brings home the virus, 55 year old dad gets it as no symptoms on the girl . He dies, how does that sound?

    Because u have the vaccine doesnt stop u from spreading it.

    Need to protect the groups that are higher risk of death or long term damage from it.

    Ps I am.not 50.


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    #9836
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    Ok how about this. 30 year in creche gets vaccinated, then gets virus and brings home the virus, 55 year old dad gets it as no symptoms on the girl . He dies, how does that sound?

    Because u have the vaccine doesnt stop u from spreading it.

    Need to protect the groups that are higher risk of death or long term damage from it.

    Ps I am.not 50.

    Early indications are that vaccination reduces spread.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-1.4491138

    Take teachersout of the equation for a second. Surely you see that carers and SNAs and childcare workers (and anyone looking after intimate care needs) should be vaccinated ahead of the general population? Not by age.


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    #9837
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    History Queen wrote: »
    Early indications are that vaccination reduces spread.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-found-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-1.4491138

    Take teachersout of the equation for a second. Surely you see that carers and SNAs and childcare workers (and anyone looking after intimate care needs) should be vaccinated ahead of the general population? Not by age.

    If the science backs that and other models like the UK suggest that, then we should follow it. But we got to go with the data out there.

    Government always do a u-turn


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    #9838
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    average_runner wrote: »
    If the science backs that and other models like the UK suggest that, then we should follow it. But we got to go with the data out there.

    Government always do a u-turn

    If we go with the data, as you suggest, men should be vaccinated before women. They are at much more risk of severe covid and death than women.

    As are people in more risky workplaces:

    "Relative to non-essential workers, healthcare workers (RR 7.43, 95% CI 5.52 to 10.00), social and education workers (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.82) and other essential workers (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.45) had a higher risk of severe COVID-19."

    https://oem.bmj.com/content/early/2020/12/01/oemed-2020-106731


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    #9839
    Msbookeeper
    Registered Users Posts: 18 ✭Msbookeeper


    Locotastic wrote: »
    Kids have missed months and months across two school years already. They can't miss any more, some of them haven't been back yet either. Homeschool does not compare to what they get socially and academically in school.

    Do you honestly think the population has any appetite for another 8 week lockdown, because that's deluded. You do realise children aren't being vaccinated so there's a gaping hole in your lockdown, vaccinate, open, plan.

    I've said it before,
    Nevermind the fact that the restrictions aren't being followed now so they certainly won't be adhered to any better for another 8 weeks lockdown. People don't want to know about restrictions anymore, it's not going to happen.

    I've said it before, if the realisation is that for the country to keep the schools open means we will sacrifice even a semi normal summer, meaning no return to work for the industries that do most their trade in the summer like hospitality/tourism/various retail sectors and are mostly SME's with many of those on the PUP previously working in these sectors I can see serious push on our government to relax school openings and maintain lockdown to June.

    From an economic perspective it may start leading the discussion vs education for our youth. As soon as there was a return to schools let's be honest people got slacker in their approach to the lockdown, I can only offer my anecdotal evidence but I think it's a fair view.

    As a teacher I'm happy to be back in class for my students, far lower workload for me vs remote but my goodwill towards the Dept. Of education/Foley is dry they have offered zero leadership, lack of regard to teacher Health and try to hang the teachers out as lazy but I've come to realise politicians will make decisions based on the general mood of the population, if it becomes a choice of open up now and forget about a normal summer I can see the public mood choosing a normal summer.


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    #9840
    Mrsmum
    Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭Mrsmum


    One of my neighbour retired from teaching six months ago. It seems wrong to me that she would be vaccinated before a younger teacher going into a classroom every day. I have never thought teachers en masse should be moved ahead of other vulnerable groups but at the same time I think it's ridiculous that age alone is the only criterion.


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    #9841
    History Queen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,453 ✭✭✭History Queen


    A good proportion of our elected representatives in the Dáil will be getting their vaccines sooner than they would have under the other system if I've read this correctly.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-shape-of-the-33rd-d%C3%A1il-gender-and-age-1.4172965


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