COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

NeuralNetwork · 30-03-2021 03:02PM

hmmm wrote: »

A beneficial side-effect is that it may also generate a bit of a mania for getting the vaccination. You'll feel you are missing out when your friends are all repeatedly refreshing the vaccination website at 9am as if it was the queue for PS5s.

I think that’s been the story in France btw. A lot of the anger about lack of jabs has shifted public opinion a lot. It’s gone from absolute paranoia to “incompetent government! How dare they! Where’s my vaccine?!!!”

is_that_so · 30-03-2021 03:03PM

hmmm wrote: »

A beneficial side-effect is that it may also generate a bit of a mania for getting the vaccination. You'll feel you are missing out when your friends are all repeatedly refreshing the vaccination website at 9am as if it was the queue for PS5s.

IMO it'll be surprising to see it up and running by the end of May at the current rates.

celt262 · 30-03-2021 03:05PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The reality is 80% of the adult population will be done in the next 12 weeks, at a rate of over 250k most weeks. Segmenting off 100k teachers here and 50k adults in overcrowded places there makes little sense considering the hassle involved.

By the time you'd work out a plan to visit every school twice and who precisely in each school qualifies and then adjudicate all of the edge cases. . . you'd be 6 weeks getting them all done anyway. (Look at the nursing homes which was fairly tightly planned).

MCVs and GPS, whack it out by age and blast through it.

You wont find it till secondary schools and colleges are closed anyway.

is_that_so · 30-03-2021 03:05PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The reality is 80% of the adult population will be done in the next 12 weeks, at a rate of over 250k most weeks. Segmenting off 100k teachers here and 50k adults in overcrowded places there makes little sense considering the hassle involved.

By the time you'd work out a plan to visit every school twice and who precisely in each school qualifies and then adjudicate all of the edge cases. . . you'd be 6 weeks getting them all done anyway. (Look at the nursing homes which was fairly tightly planned).

MCVs and GPS, whack it out by age and blast through it.

It's an imagined reality for now. I'd love to see as much as anyone but we need to temper our expectations of deliveries.

celt262 · 30-03-2021 03:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

IMO it'll be surprising to see it up and running by the end of May at the current rates.

Its there already and has been used by the HSE as a poster here kindly informed me earlier today.

NeuralNetwork · 30-03-2021 03:06PM

The Americans are practically at the McDonald's drive thru speed of delivery at this stage. We need to be looking at solutions like that when the doses are available.

“Big Mac, Diet Coke, large fries and a side of Moderna” - “roll up your sleeve at the first window!”

It’s all become very fast and casual.

A friend of mine had his at the local supermarket car park outdoors. He literally rolled it into a trip to do the shopping.

I did the same myself here with Boots for a flu jab over the years. Drop in. Jab. Cup of coffee & do the Xmas shopping.

is_that_so · 30-03-2021 03:08PM

celt262 wrote: »

Its there already and has been used by the HSE as a poster here kindly informed me earlier today.

Is there a link to it?

PhilOssophy · 30-03-2021 03:10PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think they will. IMO they do have a plan, models etc but it's utterly contingent on the likes of AZ not ringing up on a Sunday to say they are not delivering this week. As has been said more than once they really don't trust AZ promises now and at 20% of our plans that could throw models sideways very fast.

I get that, but I repeat - that's why you model for lots of scenarios, including AZ drops 20% off the back of a lorry by accident, or the CEO of a hospital vaccinates his tennis buddies, or whatever other scenario you can think of.

Don't get me wrong - I don't want to be the "I told you so" merchant at all. I hope this thing runs like clockwork. I just hope we've enough MVC's to cope and I hope we can blast through our entire population in a few weeks and put this thing to bed. I just think the HSE need to at least be prepared for that scenario.

NeuralNetwork · 30-03-2021 03:12PM

Until the EU delivery capacity is broad enough that can still happen but hopefully we are getting to that point this quarter and into the mid summer.

celt262 · 30-03-2021 03:13PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Is there a link to it?

No it's not available to public yet i believe.

I'm only going on what i was told .

Cork2021 · 30-03-2021 03:13PM

Looks like J&J will deliver what they’re supposed to deliver from mid April! This is well help move us forward quicker.
Also will this be the winter shot???

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-03-29-21/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

BigMo1 · 30-03-2021 03:16PM

AZ can't seem to shake these clot reports.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/fresh-blow-to-astrazeneca-vaccine-as-germany-reassesses-use-1.4524020

Cork2021 · 30-03-2021 03:18PM

BigMo1 wrote: »

AZ can't seem to shake these clot reports.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/fresh-blow-to-astrazeneca-vaccine-as-germany-reassesses-use-1.4524020

Over Caution is going to be the downfall of some countries vaccination programmes!

stephenjmcd · 30-03-2021 03:18PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Looks like J&J will deliver what they’re supposed to deliver from mid April! This is well help move us forward quicker.
Also will this be the winter shot???

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-03-29-21/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

That CNN article is doing the rounds and its quite misleading, have also seen it referenced on twitter suggestions of the full order being delivered in Q2.

It's still 600k in Q2 from J&J beginning April and amounts getting larger as we through May & June.

30-03-2021 03:19PM

This may have been brought up before but has there been much success getting any extra doses from the AZ vials? UK issued guidance in January that extra doses could be extracted and this article suggests UK doctors are getting as much as 13 doses from the 10 dose vials.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/28/key-uk-workers-given-secret-covid-jabs-to-avoid-wasting-vaccine

Cork2021 · 30-03-2021 03:19PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That CNN article is doing the rounds and its quite misleading, have also seen it referenced on twitter suggestions of the full order being delivered in Q2.

It's still 600k in Q2 from J&J beginning April and amounts getting larger as we through May & June.

Oh I know that, the 2.2 is misleading for Q2 but the 600k looks like it’s guaranteed hopefully.
With possibly 1million being used for winter shots? Children etc...

lbj666 · 30-03-2021 03:19PM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The reality is 80% of the adult population will be done in the next 12 weeks, at a rate of over 250k most weeks. Segmenting off 100k teachers here and 50k adults in overcrowded places there makes little sense considering the hassle involved.

By the time you'd work out a plan to visit every school twice and who precisely in each school qualifies and then adjudicate all of the edge cases. . . you'd be 6 weeks getting them all done anyway. (Look at the nursing homes which was fairly tightly planned).

MCVs and GPS, whack it out by age and blast through it.

They wouldnt have been visiting schools, just invite them to centres. The issue is its a logistical nightmare verifying people and until theres certainty in numbers you cant invite the next cohorts down for theirs, those sort of holds up do turn into programme creep quite fast. We are seeing it with group 4 numbers at the minute.

The infection levels in schools was lower than the community when open , partly due to the stellar efforts they made with implementing measures in schools, but they will still have to do them til end of term regardless. Since the risk of infection will have to be no different to the community , it comes down to risk of severity of illness in which case it comes down to age not profession.

Guarantee you the unions will refuse to send teachers back to school though, so you see where this is going.

stephenjmcd · 30-03-2021 03:19PM

GPs given an update by IMO.

GP allocation to go to 120k pw in April. On course for 95% of dose 1 to be completed in just under 3 weeks time

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1376900263416578049?s=20

josip · 30-03-2021 03:25PM

Stark wrote: »

That's really worrying for our vaccination rollout program. Wonder are we better to switch our over-70s over to AstraZeneca and start giving Pfizer/Moderna to young people instead. If we get all our over-70s done and it turns out we can't use any more AstraZeneca, we're screwed.

Interestingly, Sputnik V and Johnson & Johnson are both very similar (viral vector vaccines). I imagine you'd expect to see similar issues there.

Looks like AZ is reasonably safe for men.
Making it men only would allow us to continue according to plan.

ACitizenErased · 30-03-2021 03:30PM

120k p/w in GPs alone means we're looking at 150-175k per week at minimum imo

eagle eye · 30-03-2021 03:30PM

How many people have taken AZ, how many blood clots, is it over 11 million with blood clots?
At this stage I think I'll avoid AZ. I'm sure I can manage to be unable to make it until it's some other vaccine they are offering.
There's just too much of this stuff going on.

lbj666 · 30-03-2021 03:33PM

eagle eye wrote: »

How many people have taken AZ, how many blood clots, is it over 11 million with blood clots?
At this stage I think I'll avoid AZ. I'm sure I can manage to be unable to make it until it's some other vaccine they are offering.
There's just too much of this stuff going on.

You are getting some figures mixed up there to say the least.

VG31 · 30-03-2021 03:33PM

josip wrote: »

Looks like AZ is reasonably safe for men.
Making it men only would allow us to continue according to plan.

Is it actually more risky for women or is it just that AZ has been given mostly to HCWs, which is a female-dominated area?

Cork2021 · 30-03-2021 03:34PM

eagle eye wrote: »

How many people have taken AZ, how many blood clots, is it over 11 million with blood clots?
At this stage I think I'll avoid AZ. I'm sure I can manage to be unable to make it until it's some other vaccine they are offering.
There's just too much of this stuff going on.

You won’t be given a choice but sure don’t get vaccinated and miss out when we’re all swanning off to the pub or a gig with our QR code to say we’ve been vaccinated

bennyineire · 30-03-2021 03:35PM

eagle eye wrote: »

How many people have taken AZ, how many blood clots, is it over 11 million with blood clots?
At this stage I think I'll avoid AZ. I'm sure I can manage to be unable to make it until it's some other vaccine they are offering.
There's just too much of this stuff going on.

Are you a troll ? If not please get you information from literally any source because you are way off here, where did you pick up this information from?

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 30-03-2021 03:36PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Over Caution is going to be the downfall of some countries vaccination programmes!

The benefits of continuing far outweigh the risks of pausing either partially in certain age groups or fully. How many will die who wouldn't have if they had a vaccination earlier and how many people will this instill fear in not to get the jab at all?

VG31 · 30-03-2021 03:39PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

You won’t be given a choice but sure don’t get vaccinated and miss out when we’re all swanning off to the pub or a gig with our QR code to say we’ve been vaccinated

A possible issue I have with getting the AZ vaccine is the 12 week gap between doses. If for example, I get the first dose of AZ in mid June (optimistic). The general concensus for fully vaccinated is two weeks after the second dose. That means it could be the end of September or even October before I would actually be regarded as vaccinated.

In comparison getting Pfizer or Moderna in mid June would have me fully vaccinated by the end of July. If they changed it so people who get AZ are regarded as vaccinated with the first dose I wouldn't have an issue, although it still might cause issues for foreign travel.

lbj666 · 30-03-2021 03:45PM

VG31 wrote: »

A possible issue I have with getting the AZ vaccine is the 12 week gap between doses. If for example, I get the first dose of AZ in mid June (optimistic). The general concensus for fully vaccinated is two weeks after the second dose. That means it could be the end of September or even October before I would actually be regarded as vaccinated.

In comparison getting Pfizer or Moderna in mid June would have me fully vaccinated by the end of July. If they changed it so people who get AZ are regarded as vaccinated with the first dose I wouldn't have an issue, although it still might cause issues for foreign travel.

There's enough evidence to suggest 1 dose AZ will significantly reduce the chance of severe illness, take what your given.

Russman · 30-03-2021 03:47PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

You won’t be given a choice but sure don’t get vaccinated and miss out when we’re all swanning off to the pub or a gig with our QR code to say we’ve been vaccinated

There are some valid concerns though to just flippantly brush them off. A close family member of mine has had blood clots in the past and has an aneurism on their brain that she has to get scanned every year, she's scared sh1tless of getting the AZ jab. To the point of saying she's not going to take it if that's the one she's offered.

VG31 · 30-03-2021 03:48PM

lbj666 wrote: »

There's enough evidence to suggest 1 dose AZ will significantly reduce the chance of severe illness, take what your given.

I don't think you read my post properly. That wasn't my point.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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