COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

astrofool · 25-03-2021 01:45PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Thankfully the virus takes Sunday off.

This is just a stupid comment, the reason Sunday is low is because supply has been used up.

timsey tiger · 25-03-2021 01:46PM

astrofool wrote: »

How can we give more than 100% of the vaccines we receive?

100% of the vaccines we recieve this week, because we have a big backlog we can exceed 100% by running down the backlog, which we should be doing as supplies are expected to increase not decrease going forward.

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 01:47PM

astrofool wrote: »

This is just a stupid comment, the reason Sunday is low is because supply has been used up.

Except we had 170k unused in supply on the 21st i.e. Sunday!!

CIARAN_BOYLE · 25-03-2021 01:49PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Except we had 170k unused in supply on the 21st i.e. Sunday!!

130k is easily justifiable imo.

KrustyUCC · 25-03-2021 01:56PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

130k is easily justifiable imo.

Yes that's fair enough and it's good to have a buffer

Still leaves big capacity to use for last Sunday

NeuralNetwork · 25-03-2021 01:56PM

the kelt wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for moving the vaccinations from GP surgeries to community halls or something similar?

Maybe its not possible i dont know but its just from my own experience of bringing my father for his vaccination.

Two hours it took with 15 mins of that being the wait after the vaccination. But an hour and half of that wait was outside the surgery in the bitter cold. The poor secretary was doing her best trying to get chairs outside for those with walking aids etc but there was old people many not in great health to begin with queing outside in the freezing cold for the bones of 90 mins.

All whilst i sat in the car across the road waiting outside a huge bloody community centre thats not being used for anything these days. I did ask could my dad keep his place in the q and sit in the car but the secretary said she couldnt do that which is understandable enough with people coming all the time.

Now maybe it isnt possible but surely the likes of that community centre could be used if available? Or has that approach been asked and ruled out?

It was the same with a relative of mine in Dublin. She’s in her mid 80s and had to stand outside the GPs along with a whole load of other people, many of whom were barely capable of it.

It’s not the south of France or the Costa del Sol where you can just relax in warm weather and really there’s no excuse for putting very elderly people though that kind of hardship.

In her case you’re talking about someone who is very feisty and independent but she has mobility problems, difficulties staying warm, often will have layers upon layers of clothes with the central heating cranked right up and she has severe difficulty standing for long periods and no seats were provided at all.

I know there’s a national emergency but do we really need to be recreating conditions from WWII.

That’s also a generation that tends to put up with stuff rather than call it out too.

There are halls, churches, empty venues, empty libraries and shopping centres, offices with huge atriums, big empty bars and all sorts of spaces that could have been used.

The same GP will also leave you on hold for anything up to 40 mins waiting to get through to their reception.

Even providing a few chairs outside would have been useful!

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 01:58PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

130k is easily justifiable imo.

Even on Monday 22nd we administered less than 10k overall with just 7k first shots even though we have 170k in stock!! Are you not at all frustrated at the lack of urgency?

.

cameramonkey · 25-03-2021 02:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's fairly well documented at this stage that the bulk of our vaccinations take place mid week for various different reasons. The shock is ridiculous.

The reason generally given is that by the weekend we had run out of supply and were waiting for Monday deliveries.From the number of vaccines supplied there does seem to be vaccines in Irish storage so you would expect that this weekend we can keep vaccine numbers up. If not then it is not a problem with supply but a problem with administering the vaccine.

MerlinSouthDub · 25-03-2021 02:05PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The reason generally given is that by the weekend we had run out of supply and were waiting for Monday deliveries.From the number of vaccines supplied there does seem to be vaccines in Irish storage so you would expect that this weekend we can keep vaccine numbers up. If not then it is not a problem with supply but a problem with administering the vaccine.

Yes this is the first week since we started vaccinating that we've had an unused supply going into the week (due to AZ issues). Let's see how the week goes.

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 02:09PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yes this is the first week since we started vaccinating that we've had an unused supply going into the week (due to AZ issues). Let's see how the week goes.

Less than half the 170k in stock on Sunday were AZ. So can't point the finger entirely at AZ.

Wolf359f · 25-03-2021 02:12PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Wrong. Total of 22k Moderna given so far includes a number second doses. So again it begs the question, why are we holding so many back?

There's definitely been 15k first doses given out (assuming 28 days for second dose) up to 7th March, then 5k second doses to the 22nd and looks like 2k first doses (means they need a delivery of 12k last week just to do second doses from what's left) So they appear not not be holding back 50% of Moderna as suggested.

We got a delivery of 27,600, 12k of which are needed for second doses, so that leaves 15,600 to use (as all first doses) or use some as first doses and then hold some back as second doses.
It's definitely not as easy and take a delivery and get jabbing and pray for a delivery to cover it. Nor as it appears to be the case of holding exactly half back.

25-03-2021 02:19PM

astrofool wrote: »

How can we give more than 100% of the vaccines we receive?

Because we also had a week's worth of AZ built up during the pause. Did you not see any news last week?

astrofool · 25-03-2021 02:19PM

I feel with the schools closed, lots of posters ability to do basic maths has disappeared.

Anyway:
Arranging vaccines takes time per person, but seems to be about 1-2 days, most vaccinations are mid-week as this is the time by which deliveries into the country have occurred, so final numbers are in place, that amount going to each GP has been figured out, and then actually driven to that location to be administered, the GP then usually get through the doses over the few days.

There are exceptions to this, such as people who are homebound (visited by GP directly for injection), and the GP rollout happening at the mass vaccination centre which was using Moderna.

As the capacity to vaccinate (i.e. the number of vaccinations that can be given by the number of vaccinators involved) is higher than the supply (the number of vaccines available to be shot into peoples arms), this means that the majority of vaccinations are happening during regular work hours throughout the week, rather than 24/7 on Monday/Tuesday and then nothing for the rest of the week.

The cycle is weekly and repeats starting from the weekend deliveries. If the deliveries are above forecast, then extra hours are put in on the vaccinating side, if they are below, then they have to figure out which locations get less vaccines, or if it's just a simple haircut for the whole system (which can depend on which cohorts are being vaccinated).

The end result is that the system is getting all shots done within the week that the vaccines arrive.

AZ being paused will mean there is 2-3 weeks of extra vaccinations happening as all the logistics go into place to get them delivered to the right place and get them into arms, remembering that some were cancelled, and some went ahead using Pfizer, so it's not a simple case of resuming as it was minus 1 week.

If we see outstanding vaccines in a couple of weeks from now, then we don't have enough vaccinators, but the current surplus is not unexpected due to the AZ pause and is being worked through quickly, but the entire surplus will not be turned around within a single week.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 25-03-2021 02:22PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Less than half the 170k in stock on Sunday were AZ. So can't point the finger entirely at AZ.

Around 80k is AZ and 46k is Pfizer which imo represents a reasonable justified operational reserve. That leaves around 40k Moderna some of which is 2nd doses held back due to irregular shipping schedule.

I could quibble on the size of the Pfizer operational reserve but I wouldn't reccoemnd reducing it significantly.

That leaves Moderna as the only issue for me. They don't need that much in storage given they haven't given out as many first doses as they have stored but in the grand scheme its small numbers.

astrofool · 25-03-2021 02:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because we also had a week's worth of AZ built up during the pause. Did you not see any news last week?

I feel dumb having to say this, but the vaccinations used % is of the total supplied into the country, not the % of that weeks supply.

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 02:22PM

astrofool wrote: »

I feel with the schools closed, lots of posters ability to do basic maths has disappeared.

Anyway:
Arranging vaccines takes time per person, but seems to be about 1-2 days, most vaccinations are mid-week as this is the time by which deliveries into the country have occurred, so final numbers are in place, that amount going to each GP has been figured out, and then actually driven to that location to be administered, the GP then usually get through the doses over the few days.

There are exceptions to this, such as people who are homebound (visited by GP directly for injection), and the GP rollout happening at the mass vaccination centre which was using Moderna.

As the capacity to vaccinate (i.e. the number of vaccinations that can be given by the number of vaccinators involved) is higher than the supply (the number of vaccines available to be shot into peoples arms), this means that the majority of vaccinations are happening during regular work hours throughout the week, rather than 24/7 on Monday/Tuesday and then nothing for the rest of the week.

The cycle is weekly and repeats starting from the weekend deliveries. If the deliveries are above forecast, then extra hours are put in on the vaccinating side, if they are below, then they have to figure out which locations get less vaccines, or if it's just a simple haircut for the whole system (which can depend on which cohorts are being vaccinated).

The end result is that the system is getting all shots done within the week that the vaccines arrive.

AZ being paused will mean there is 2-3 weeks of extra vaccinations happening as all the logistics go into place to get them delivered to the right place and get them into arms, remembering that some were cancelled, and some went ahead using Pfizer, so it's not a simple case of resuming as it was minus 1 week.

If we see outstanding vaccines in a couple of weeks from now, then we don't have enough vaccinators, but the current surplus is not unexpected due to the AZ pause and is being worked through quickly, but the entire surplus will not be turned around within a single week.

Again, less than half the weekend surplus was AZ doses.

25-03-2021 02:25PM

astrofool wrote: »

I feel with the schools closed, lots of posters ability to do basic maths has disappeared.

Anyway:
Arranging vaccines takes time per person, but seems to be about 1-2 days, most vaccinations are mid-week as this is the time by which deliveries into the country have occurred, so final numbers are in place, that amount going to each GP has been figured out, and then actually driven to that location to be administered, the GP then usually get through the doses over the few days.

There are exceptions to this, such as people who are homebound (visited by GP directly for injection), and the GP rollout happening at the mass vaccination centre which was using Moderna.

As the capacity to vaccinate (i.e. the number of vaccinations that can be given by the number of vaccinators involved) is higher than the supply (the number of vaccines available to be shot into peoples arms), this means that the majority of vaccinations are happening during regular work hours throughout the week, rather than 24/7 on Monday/Tuesday and then nothing for the rest of the week.

The cycle is weekly and repeats starting from the weekend deliveries. If the deliveries are above forecast, then extra hours are put in on the vaccinating side, if they are below, then they have to figure out which locations get less vaccines, or if it's just a simple haircut for the whole system (which can depend on which cohorts are being vaccinated).

The end result is that the system is getting all shots done within the week that the vaccines arrive.

AZ being paused will mean there is 2-3 weeks of extra vaccinations happening as all the logistics go into place to get them delivered to the right place and get them into arms, remembering that some were cancelled, and some went ahead using Pfizer, so it's not a simple case of resuming as it was minus 1 week.

If we see outstanding vaccines in a couple of weeks from now, then we don't have enough vaccinators, but the current surplus is not unexpected due to the AZ pause and is being worked through quickly, but the entire surplus will not be turned around within a single week.

This is quite condescending.

I really don't think its unreasonable to have expected increased vaccination figures for Sunday and Monday given the AZ delay meant we had significantly more doses in storage. This is the biggest issue facing the country, expecting urgency isn't unreasonable.

There is no reason why the entire surplus shouldn't be turned around in 7 days. If we can't administer 180k in a week now, how do we expect them to administer 250k in a couple of weeks time?

The HSE have done fine so far but it must be noted that the rollout is relatively easy whilst supply is poor. Their job becomes more difficult as supply ramps up and that's when they'll be judged.

New Home · 25-03-2021 02:25PM

GLaDOS wrote: »

NAAT seems to stand for Nucleic Acid Amplification Test. Which is just another way of saying PCR, as all PCR tests involve amplification of nucleic acid. So its just the standard PCR test, don't worry about the different names.

And yes, PCR is molecular, different from antigen detecting.

Thanks GlaDos.

astrofool · 25-03-2021 02:33PM

AdamD wrote: »

This is quite condescending.

I really don't think its unreasonable to have expected increased vaccination figures for Sunday and Monday given the AZ delay meant we had significantly more doses in storage. This is the biggest issue facing the country, expecting urgency isn't unreasonable.

There is no reason why the entire surplus shouldn't be turned around in 7 days. If we can't administer 180k in a week now, how do we expect them to administer 250k in a couple of weeks time?

The HSE have done fine so far but it must be noted that the rollout is relatively easy whilst supply is poor. Their job becomes more difficult as supply ramps up and that's when they'll be judged.

It's meant to be condescending, the fact that it needs to be explained to mostly the same people again and again, who usually come back with a "what about X" response, or scream about urgency as if we weren't getting 95% of vaccines into arms on a week by week basis.

I'll say it again, as we are supply, not vaccinator limited, the excess will be used up over the course of a few weeks, rather than go into the logistics (which itself will take time) of ramping up vaccinators for a few days in a single week, and then they go idle again.

WHEN supply looks like hitting 100k, 150k, 200k, 250k and so on, per week, then vaccinators will also be ramped up accordingly to use that supply as it arrives, this will involve the mass vaccination centres being in use. AND again, when they first open, they won't be open 24/7 so some darlings will post pictures of them not being used, again, this will be down to supply.

titan18 · 25-03-2021 02:35PM

astrofool wrote: »

It's meant to be condescending, the fact that it needs to be explained to mostly the same people again and again, who usually come back with a "what about X" response, or scream about urgency as if we weren't getting 95% of vaccines into arms on a week by week basis.

I'll say it again, as we are supply, not vaccinator limited, the excess will be used up over the course of a few weeks, rather than go into the logistics (which itself will take time) of ramping up vaccinators for a few days in a single week, and then they go idle again.

WHEN supply looks like hitting 100k, 150k, 200k, 250k and so on, per week, then vaccinators will also be ramped up accordingly to use that supply as it arrives, this will involve the mass vaccination centres being in use. AND again, when they first open, they won't be open 24/7 so some darlings will post pictures of them not being used, again, this will be down to supply.

If we're supply not vaccinator limited, and we've a good 90k or so of AZ vaccines that can be used up (I know Moderna and Pfizer we're keeping some back) should that not be used up this week rather than over several weeks. If we can't do that in one week, then it does look like we are vaccinator eliminated.

25-03-2021 02:38PM

astrofool wrote: »

It's meant to be condescending, the fact that it needs to be explained to mostly the same people again and again, who usually come back with a "what about X" response, or scream about urgency as if we weren't getting 95% of vaccines into arms on a week by week basis.

I'll say it again, as we are supply, not vaccinator limited, the excess will be used up over the course of a few weeks, rather than go into the logistics (which itself will take time) of ramping up vaccinators for a few days in a single week, and then they go idle again.

WHEN supply looks like hitting 100k, 150k, 200k, 250k and so on, per week, then vaccinators will also be ramped up accordingly to use that supply as it arrives, this will involve the mass vaccination centres being in use. AND again, when they first open, they won't be open 24/7 so some darlings will post pictures of them not being used, again, this will be down to supply.

Well we can agree to disagree because I'd argue its far more cost-effective for the country to ramp up vaccinators for several days, even if they're idle afterwards, to ensure vaccines aren't left unused. Lockdowns are an economic black hole, the cost of having idle vaccinators is significantly less than the cost of slower rollouts.

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 02:41PM

astrofool wrote: »

It's meant to be condescending, the fact that it needs to be explained to mostly the same people again and again, who usually come back with a "what about X" response, or scream about urgency as if we weren't getting 95% of vaccines into arms on a week by week basis.

I'll say it again, as we are supply, not vaccinator limited, the excess will be used up over the course of a few weeks, rather than go into the logistics (which itself will take time) of ramping up vaccinators for a few days in a single week, and then they go idle again.

WHEN supply looks like hitting 100k, 150k, 200k, 250k and so on, per week, then vaccinators will also be ramped up accordingly to use that supply as it arrives, this will involve the mass vaccination centres being in use. AND again, when they first open, they won't be open 24/7 so some darlings will post pictures of them not being used, again, this will be down to supply.

Are you comfortable with the fact that even though we had 170k in stock on Sunday we administered just 7k first doses this Monday gone and just 3k first does on the Sunday? You seem happy regardless of what gets administered and always have excuses ready to go.

crossman47 · 25-03-2021 02:42PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

It was the same with a relative of mine in Dublin. She’s in her mid 80s and had to stand outside the GPs along with a whole load of other people, many of whom were barely capable of it.

It’s not the south of France or the Costa del Sol where you can just relax in warm weather and really there’s no excuse for putting very elderly people though that kind of hardship.

In her case you’re talking about someone who is very feisty and independent but she has mobility problems, difficulties staying warm, often will have layers upon layers of clothes with the central heating cranked right up and she has severe difficulty standing for long periods and no seats were provided at all.

I know there’s a national emergency but do we really need to be recreating conditions from WWII.

That’s also a generation that tends to put up with stuff rather than call it out too.

There are halls, churches, empty venues, empty libraries and shopping centres, offices with huge atriums, big empty bars and all sorts of spaces that could have been used.

The same GP will also leave you on hold for anything up to 40 mins waiting to get through to their reception.

Even providing a few chairs outside would have been useful!

Maybe my experience bringing someone is different but there was no need for anything but a short wait. A time for vaccination was given and adhered to so no need to come any earlier so no need to quque outside.

I would have thought a GP who didn't have the basics of a waiting room, another room for people to spend 15 mins afterwards and separate entrance and exit should have combined with someone else in a bigger venue.

beggars_bush · 25-03-2021 02:44PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Are you confirmable with the fact that even though we had 170k in stock on Sunday we administered just 7k first doses this Monday gone? You seem happy regardless of what gets administered and always have excuses ready to go.

well it takes a few days to send out notices, and to make sure there is a high % of people attending to get the vaccine on their appointment date/time

snotboogie · 25-03-2021 02:46PM

astrofool wrote: »

It's meant to be condescending, the fact that it needs to be explained to mostly the same people again and again, who usually come back with a "what about X" response, or scream about urgency as if we weren't getting 95% of vaccines into arms on a week by week basis.

I'll say it again, as we are supply, not vaccinator limited, the excess will be used up over the course of a few weeks, rather than go into the logistics (which itself will take time) of ramping up vaccinators for a few days in a single week, and then they go idle again.

WHEN supply looks like hitting 100k, 150k, 200k, 250k and so on, per week, then vaccinators will also be ramped up accordingly to use that supply as it arrives, this will involve the mass vaccination centres being in use. AND again, when they first open, they won't be open 24/7 so some darlings will post pictures of them not being used, again, this will be down to supply.

I think the concerns are relatively fair. It's not immediately clear why there couldn't have been a ramp up this week given that we are expecting 200k+ vaccines before the end of the month and 1 million vaccines next month. Its not like the vaccinators would have been idle for long, if at all. Maybe there is a big issue with having that gap but it's a fair question especially since cost should be of zero concern given the corresponding cost of each day of lockdown.

25-03-2021 02:46PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

well it takes a few days to send out notices, and to make sure there is a high % of people attending to get the vaccine on their appointment date/time

There's a never-ending stream of excuses on this thread that relieve the HSE of any responsibility here. It's baffling.

KrustyUCC · 25-03-2021 02:48PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

well it takes a few days to send out notices, and to make sure there is a high % of people attending to get the vaccine on their appointment date/time

Why the need to send out notices?

My cousin got a phonecall from his consultant and a text with his appointment

crossman47 · 25-03-2021 02:48PM

11521323 wrote: »

There's a never-ending stream of excuses on this thread that relieve the HSE of any responsibility here. It's baffling.

Theres also an endless stream of people who think its as simple as get vaccine into the country today, get it into an arm tomorrow.

namloc1980 · 25-03-2021 02:53PM

crossman47 wrote: »

Theres also an endless stream of people who think its as simple as get vaccine into the country today, get it into an arm tomorrow.

Not really. There has been a stock built up. We've been repeatedly told by some posters that we administer 95% of what we get within days of receipt. But as of last weekend 20% of all the vaccines doses we had received were in storage and the goalposts have now been moved conveniently.

Amirani · 25-03-2021 02:54PM

AdamD wrote: »

Well we can agree to disagree because I'd argue its far more cost-effective for the country to ramp up vaccinators for several days, even if they're idle afterwards, to ensure vaccines aren't left unused. Lockdowns are an economic black hole, the cost of having idle vaccinators is significantly less than the cost of slower rollouts.

Doesn't seem like you're aware of what's involved in become a vaccinator, there's actually a huge amount to it and it takes quite a bit of time. Existing doctors and nurses have to do additional training and get professional references in order to be authorised to do it. It all takes days rather than hours to get someone authorised, even if they have a medical degree. You're not going to get authorised without a healthcare background, it's not like contact tracers.

It seems bizarre, but I guess it's another case of being uber cautious.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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