How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

It will never happen.
Once everyone in the south realizes what it will cost them the majority easily will vote no.
But to be sure, everyone when asked face to face will say, of course i will vote yes, just for peace and quiet.
In the polling booth they will vote no.

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not at all. Any border poll would pass down here. Yup north is a different story.

I beg to differ. I think it wouldnt have a hope of passing down here.

JimmyVik wrote: »

I beg to differ. I think it wouldnt have a hope of passing down here.

Nonsense.
Won't be a landslide but majority in south will vote for it.

Rodin wrote: »

Nonsense.
Won't be a landslide but majority in south will vote for it.

They wont you know.
I have a friend who is almost militant when it comes to a united Ireland.
Every now and then this comes up and we all tell him yes, you go boy, we are behind you. United Ireland all the way. He is convinced that 90% of people he knows are for a united Ireland. They are in front of him, because its just not worth the ear ache to not be.
But when hes not around and the conversation comes up, its Dont tell Garry, but I would vote no. From everyone.
Any opinion polls on a united Ireland will be the most incorrect polls in history.

JimmyVik wrote: »

They wont you know.
I have a friend who is almost militant when it comes to a united Ireland.
Every now and then this comes up and we all tell him yes, you go boy, we are behind you. United Ireland all the way. He is convinced that 90% of people he knows are for a united Ireland. They are in front of him, because its just not worth the ear ache to not be.
But when hes not around and the conversation comes up, its Dont tell Garry, but I would vote no. From everyone.
Any opinion polls on a united Ireland will be the most incorrect polls in history.

There's only one opinion poll that matters.

I must admit I hadn't known so many unionists lived south of the border. Have you been a Unionist all your life or recently converted?

maestroamado wrote: »

The people here could consider doing a poll here as any poll would give some sort of an idea.

I think NI would be difficult to police for a time after UI.
There is lots of talk but i cannot see any of the parties having stomach for it now including SF.
The all whinge about protocol but when it comes down it will be who pays to make it happen.
I expect EU and UK will eventually come up with big financial incentive for it to happen and this has started already with the sea border between EU and UK.
One positive will the political landscape both North and South will have to change when it does happen.
Interesting times ahead...

I'll take this on! Poll now up...

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Threads and fora like this provide a sample with inherently strong bias to both extremes on the topic; posters on these topics tend to be those with particularly strong feelings on the subject. Given that we are all aware there is a significant middle ground who aren't so passionately committed one way or another, I'd say there would be incredibly limited insight to be gained from a poll that has such a strong selection bias to ignore that middle ground who are much less likely to comment on a topic such as this.

Here a long time, don't think I ever voted in one of the many polls there have been.

bonzothedog wrote: »

I'll take this on! Poll now up...

A poll in this thread will be strongly biased one way or the other. Thats the problem with opinion polls.
I am not that bothered by a united Ireland either for or against, but if I was to vote I would vote no.
Others will be more passionate than i am about it.
But surely most people can see that it comes down to, will the people voting be winning or losing by having a united Ireland. Losing would be my guess.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The way things are progressing it wouldn't appear at the moment that any compromise towards unionists would be required to get it to pass. So if no compromise is necessary, then why bother? As has been pointed out unionism will not be satisfied with any form of Irish unity, so what would throwing them a bone achieve?

I can see the process already, a government that thinks it's being responsible will construct a referendum for unity which requires symbols etc to be changed. Such a referendum would likely pass but a nationalist government at a later point, lookups for an easy political win would quickly propose reversing it.

The only way unity is a success is through assimilation and absorption. Expecting the majority to change for an unpleasable minority will be a disaster.

Plus once the unionists get their crazy on, people down here will be saying fcuk that, let the north float off into the sea.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The way things are progressing it wouldn't appear at the moment that any compromise towards unionists would be required to get it to pass. So if no compromise is necessary, then why bother? As has been pointed out unionism will not be satisfied with any form of Irish unity, so what would throwing them a bone achieve?

I can see the process already, a government that thinks it's being responsible will construct a referendum for unity which requires symbols etc to be changed. Such a referendum would likely pass but a nationalist government at a later point, lookups for an easy political win would quickly propose reversing it.

The only way unity is a success is through assimilation and absorption. Expecting the majority to change for an unpleasable minority will be a disaster.

As I said before the idea that that an 80% higher threshold to pass is going to calm belligerent Unionism is fantasy, they will be upset even if it was 99% in favour.

As Emma DeSouza said this morning, if we gave way because Unionists might be upset we wouldn't have the Anglo Irish Agreement, the GFA or people behaving themselves on marches etc etc.

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Threads and fora like this provide a sample with inherently strong bias to both extremes on the topic; posters on these topics tend to be those with particularly strong feelings on the subject. Given that we are all aware there is a significant middle ground who aren't so passionately committed one way or another, I'd say there would be incredibly limited insight to be gained from a poll that has such a strong selection bias to ignore that middle ground who are much less likely to comment on a topic such as this.

The poll isn't binding legally!!
Actually the results of the poll are quite interesting and anyone that thought that this was a dead cert either way may be surprised...

eire4 wrote: »

After ignoring the 1918 election results which saw a clear majority voting for independence. Democracy not in action!

Unionists only care about 'democracy' when they're in the majority.
They don't actually believe in democracy at all.

Fionn1952 wrote: »

It isn't that I expect to see it going one way or the other, it's that I don't expect it to be reflective of the general public, and it'll be down to the general public to vote. You have a huge selection bias; people that care enough about it to discuss it on an online forum. The bias cuts both ways, you'll get people who strongly oppose it and people who strongly favour it.....Great, what useful information can we gain from finding out that people who care enough to discuss unification on an online forum and enough to vote on a poll on said forum have strong opinions on Unification?

My point is that it isn't indicative of the great number of people who occupy the grey area between, 'I'd vote for Unification no matter what' and, 'I'll oppose Unification no matter what'.....and it is the people in that grey area who will ultimately decide. You've done the equivalent of taking a poll at a DUP AGM and a SF Ard Fheis....you'll certainly get some numbers out of it, you could examine trends in those numbers and make projections based on them, but the polling method is so flawed to render the analysis and projections entirely useless.

But wouldn't Boards be fairly reflective of the wider public? I have no political affiliation and am a bit on the fence about re-unification but find the subject kind of compelling the way it seems to have just morphed into the conversation and even unionists seem to accept that a border poll is inevitable. This is a massive shift brought about primarily by Brexit.

I think you are wrong saying that it is like taking a poll at a SF ard fheis or a DUP equivalent. The early voting and commentary on the poll thread seems to indicate a lot more nuance actually. Most of the "No" vote is hardly coming from unionists but people who are worried about propping up the north financially or delaing with the fallout from unification.
The majority so far of the Yes vote seems to be going the way of the "Yes -in 10 years time" option which would suggest they aren't Sinn Fein voters who would probably for the "Yes - ASAP " option.

bonzothedog wrote: »

But wouldn't Boards be fairly reflective of the wider public? I have no political affiliation and am a bit on the fence about re-unification but find the subject kind of compelling the way it seems to have just morphed into the conversation and even unionists seem to accept that a border poll is inevitable. This is a massive shift brought about primarily by Brexit.

I think you are wrong saying that it is like taking a poll at a SF ard fheis or a DUP equivalent. The early voting and commentary on the poll thread seems to indicate a lot more nuance actually. Most of the "No" vote is hardly coming from unionists but people who are worried about propping up the north financially or delaing with the fallout from unification.
The majority so far of the Yes vote seems to be going the way of the "Yes -in 10 years time" option which would suggest they aren't Sinn Fein voters who would probably for the "Yes - ASAP " option.

If you could get a poll across all Boards posters, it might be more representative of the general public (though any Internet board would introduce a degree of selection bias - just as an example, the age demographics of Boards is unlikely to be accurately representative of the general public), but the selection bias I'm referring to is being created by the thread itself; Boards users who don't have particularly strong feelings either way are less likely to click on a thread and vote in it than those who either strongly support Unification or strongly oppose it. Put it this way, if you were trying to get an accurate representation of whether the general public prefer to eat chicken or beef, posting it in the farming forum would certainly give you diverse answers (poultry farmers and beef farmers are likely to have quite strong opposing opinions on the matter), but John the passionate home cook isn't terribly likely to drop into the Farming forum, Rachel the vegetarian doesn't have an option that reflects her views on that poll and Bob, who slightly prefers beef but doesn't really care won't take the time to vote on it because it isn't important enough for him to click into the thread in the first place even if he did see it.

I consider myself strongly in favour of Unification, and based on the options set out in your poll, I would have to vote for, 'Yes in 10 years' rather than, 'Yes, ASAP', though neither accurately reflect my position. I voted for SF in the past when living in the North (for tactical reasons), and have never given them any sort of notable preference since moving to the other side of the border.

The SF/DUP comparison was meant to be an example of strongly held views that are representative of specific demographics, not a suggestion that only SF or DUP voters would actually vote in your poll. That being said, I did read through some of the commentary on the thread....and nuanced certainly isn't the word that would come to mind reading most of it.