nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Tokyo

Mod:

Continuation of the How long before Irish reunification? thread.

Please note that all mod warnings, actions and threadbans from the previous thread carry across to here.

I have updated the OP of this thread with a list of threadbanned users, I would advise posters to check on this before posting in the thread again or a forum sanction will be imposed for breaching same.

If you want to discuss your threadban feel free to PM the banning mod (or myself if you can't remember who that is and I'll point you in the right direction).

Threadbanned Users:
blanch152
Randy Archer
Natterjack from Kerry
littlevillage

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Junkyard Tom

maccored wrote: »

britain is taking quite the economic battering with brexit - cant see them hanging onto the north while they are haemorrhaging the kind of money they are to lost exports

I've said it a few times, when the dust begins to settle the north will be looked at jealously by Scotland and indeed by much of England and Wales.

Unionism will look incredibly stupid crying about having the best deal anyone currently under UK jurisdiction could hope for.

JimmyVik

It will never happen.
Once everyone in the south realizes what it will cost them the majority easily will vote no.
But to be sure, everyone when asked face to face will say, of course i will vote yes, just for peace and quiet.
In the polling booth they will vote no.

namloc1980

JimmyVik wrote: »

It will never happen.
Once everyone in the south realizes what it will cost them the majority easily will vote no.
But to be sure, everyone when asked face to face will say, of course i will vote yes, just for peace and quiet.
In the polling booth they will vote no.

Not at all. Any border poll would pass down here. Yup north is a different story.

JimmyVik

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not at all. Any border poll would pass down here. Yup north is a different story.

I beg to differ. I think it wouldnt have a hope of passing down here.

bonzothedog

downcow wrote: »

I don't see any ambiguity amongst most of the posters here. They all talk in terms of ROI absorbing Northern Ireland. They may not say it out right but it is crystal clear in their subtext. They refer to the changes that may or may not be needed in the constitution, with the flag, with the anthem, etc. can you not see the subtext. There are currently two flags, two countries, two anthems. In their eyes this is not about bringing two countries together in unification, they are not even considering my fly, my anthem, etc.
it's really very obvious to all Unionists what people mean by a united Ireland

Hey downcow - while I think what you say is true to an extent there is definitely another tranche of people in the south who would be very open to bringing 2 countries together and your history/culture into a new country. I for one bristle at overt nationalism of any kind - I support the Irish rugby team, I would shout for Northern ireland in any game except playing us. I would shout for Ulster rugby all day long, I do a lot of business with a prominent protestant family in the North who I would consider friends.
I am a gaeilic Irish speaker at the same time and love hurling also, I detest Sinn Fein and their anti business rhetoric and so do alot of people in the South - I'm very mixed up as you can see --there is room for us all here on this island.

Rodin

JimmyVik wrote: »

I beg to differ. I think it wouldnt have a hope of passing down here.

Nonsense.
Won't be a landslide but majority in south will vote for it.

bonzothedog

Rodin wrote: »

Nonsense.
Won't be a landslide but majority in south will vote for it.

I think it would pass also but conditions need to be right insofar
economically viable
very small chance of violence resuming
majority unionist buy in to the process - happy that they are included and part of the solution

any of these things not in place before hand and it mightn't. That's why so much work ahead if it is to happen.

JimmyVik

Rodin wrote: »

Nonsense.
Won't be a landslide but majority in south will vote for it.

They wont you know.
I have a friend who is almost militant when it comes to a united Ireland.
Every now and then this comes up and we all tell him yes, you go boy, we are behind you. United Ireland all the way. He is convinced that 90% of people he knows are for a united Ireland. They are in front of him, because its just not worth the ear ache to not be.
But when hes not around and the conversation comes up, its Dont tell Garry, but I would vote no. From everyone.
Any opinion polls on a united Ireland will be the most incorrect polls in history.

FrancieBrady

JimmyVik wrote: »

They wont you know.
I have a friend who is almost militant when it comes to a united Ireland.
Every now and then this comes up and we all tell him yes, you go boy, we are behind you. United Ireland all the way. He is convinced that 90% of people he knows are for a united Ireland. They are in front of him, because its just not worth the ear ache to not be.
But when hes not around and the conversation comes up, its Dont tell Garry, but I would vote no. From everyone.
Any opinion polls on a united Ireland will be the most incorrect polls in history.

How do you know they are not just saying that because the earache from you would not be worth it?

Rodin

JimmyVik wrote: »

They wont you know.
I have a friend who is almost militant when it comes to a united Ireland.
Every now and then this comes up and we all tell him yes, you go boy, we are behind you. United Ireland all the way. He is convinced that 90% of people he knows are for a united Ireland. They are in front of him, because its just not worth the ear ache to not be.
But when hes not around and the conversation comes up, its Dont tell Garry, but I would vote no. From everyone.
Any opinion polls on a united Ireland will be the most incorrect polls in history.

There's only one opinion poll that matters.

I must admit I hadn't known so many unionists lived south of the border. Have you been a Unionist all your life or recently converted?

maestroamado

The people here could consider doing a poll here as any poll would give some sort of an idea.

I think NI would be difficult to police for a time after UI.
There is lots of talk but i cannot see any of the parties having stomach for it now including SF.
The all whinge about protocol but when it comes down it will be who pays to make it happen.
I expect EU and UK will eventually come up with big financial incentive for it to happen and this has started already with the sea border between EU and UK.
One positive will the political landscape both North and South will have to change when it does happen.
Interesting times ahead...

bonzothedog

maestroamado wrote: »

The people here could consider doing a poll here as any poll would give some sort of an idea.

I think NI would be difficult to police for a time after UI.
There is lots of talk but i cannot see any of the parties having stomach for it now including SF.
The all whinge about protocol but when it comes down it will be who pays to make it happen.
I expect EU and UK will eventually come up with big financial incentive for it to happen and this has started already with the sea border between EU and UK.
One positive will the political landscape both North and South will have to change when it does happen.
Interesting times ahead...

I'll take this on! Poll now up...

Fionn1952

bonzothedog wrote: »

I'll take this on! Poll now up...

Threads and fora like this provide a sample with inherently strong bias to both extremes on the topic; posters on these topics tend to be those with particularly strong feelings on the subject. Given that we are all aware there is a significant middle ground who aren't so passionately committed one way or another, I'd say there would be incredibly limited insight to be gained from a poll that has such a strong selection bias to ignore that middle ground who are much less likely to comment on a topic such as this.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Threads and fora like this provide a sample with inherently strong bias to both extremes on the topic; posters on these topics tend to be those with particularly strong feelings on the subject. Given that we are all aware there is a significant middle ground who aren't so passionately committed one way or another, I'd say there would be incredibly limited insight to be gained from a poll that has such a strong selection bias to ignore that middle ground who are much less likely to comment on a topic such as this.

Here a long time, don't think I ever voted in one of the many polls there have been.

JimmyVik

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How do you know they are not just saying that because the earache from you would not be worth it?

Well, because i never give anyone an earache about the way they want to vote.
But you are right. They could all be lying to me. Maybe they will all vote Yes.

JimmyVik

bonzothedog wrote: »

I'll take this on! Poll now up...

A poll in this thread will be strongly biased one way or the other. Thats the problem with opinion polls.
I am not that bothered by a united Ireland either for or against, but if I was to vote I would vote no.
Others will be more passionate than i am about it.
But surely most people can see that it comes down to, will the people voting be winning or losing by having a united Ireland. Losing would be my guess.

MrMusician18

briany wrote: »

Whatever about such titles needing to go, it does raise the point of what a united Ireland would actually look like in terms of its institutions and so forth. The GFA doesn't really have a lot of detail on it, so there appears to be much ambiguity around basic questions like would it mean a new country or simply absorbing NI into the existing Republic?

The way things are progressing it wouldn't appear at the moment that any compromise towards unionists would be required to get it to pass. So if no compromise is necessary, then why bother? As has been pointed out unionism will not be satisfied with any form of Irish unity, so what would throwing them a bone achieve?

I can see the process already, a government that thinks it's being responsible will construct a referendum for unity which requires symbols etc to be changed. Such a referendum would likely pass but a nationalist government at a later point, lookups for an easy political win would quickly propose reversing it.

The only way unity is a success is through assimilation and absorption. Expecting the majority to change for an unpleasable minority will be a disaster.

JimmyVik

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The way things are progressing it wouldn't appear at the moment that any compromise towards unionists would be required to get it to pass. So if no compromise is necessary, then why bother? As has been pointed out unionism will not be satisfied with any form of Irish unity, so what would throwing them a bone achieve?

I can see the process already, a government that thinks it's being responsible will construct a referendum for unity which requires symbols etc to be changed. Such a referendum would likely pass but a nationalist government at a later point, lookups for an easy political win would quickly propose reversing it.

The only way unity is a success is through assimilation and absorption. Expecting the majority to change for an unpleasable minority will be a disaster.

Plus once the unionists get their crazy on, people down here will be saying fcuk that, let the north float off into the sea.

FrancieBrady

JimmyVik wrote: »

Well, because i never give anyone an earache about the way they want to vote.
But you are right. They could all be lying to me. Maybe they will all vote Yes.

They could be lying to you, just as you could be to us when you say 'you aren't bothered either way' but yet here you are, adamant it won't pass based on a 'man with two pints' survey.

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The way things are progressing it wouldn't appear at the moment that any compromise towards unionists would be required to get it to pass. So if no compromise is necessary, then why bother? As has been pointed out unionism will not be satisfied with any form of Irish unity, so what would throwing them a bone achieve?

I can see the process already, a government that thinks it's being responsible will construct a referendum for unity which requires symbols etc to be changed. Such a referendum would likely pass but a nationalist government at a later point, lookups for an easy political win would quickly propose reversing it.

The only way unity is a success is through assimilation and absorption. Expecting the majority to change for an unpleasable minority will be a disaster.

As I said before the idea that that an 80% higher threshold to pass is going to calm belligerent Unionism is fantasy, they will be upset even if it was 99% in favour.

As Emma DeSouza said this morning, if we gave way because Unionists might be upset we wouldn't have the Anglo Irish Agreement, the GFA or people behaving themselves on marches etc etc.

eire4

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Under the threat of immediate and terrible war and Carson's guns mark. Come back into the real and factual world.

After ignoring the 1918 election results which saw a clear majority voting for independence. Democracy not in action!

bonzothedog

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Threads and fora like this provide a sample with inherently strong bias to both extremes on the topic; posters on these topics tend to be those with particularly strong feelings on the subject. Given that we are all aware there is a significant middle ground who aren't so passionately committed one way or another, I'd say there would be incredibly limited insight to be gained from a poll that has such a strong selection bias to ignore that middle ground who are much less likely to comment on a topic such as this.

The poll isn't binding legally!!
Actually the results of the poll are quite interesting and anyone that thought that this was a dead cert either way may be surprised...

Fionn1952

bonzothedog wrote: »

The poll isn't binding legally!!
Actually the results of the poll are quite interesting and anyone that thought that this was a dead cert either way may be surprised...

It isn't that I expect to see it going one way or the other, it's that I don't expect it to be reflective of the general public, and it'll be down to the general public to vote. You have a huge selection bias; people that care enough about it to discuss it on an online forum. The bias cuts both ways, you'll get people who strongly oppose it and people who strongly favour it.....Great, what useful information can we gain from finding out that people who care enough to discuss unification on an online forum and enough to vote on a poll on said forum have strong opinions on Unification?

My point is that it isn't indicative of the great number of people who occupy the grey area between, 'I'd vote for Unification no matter what' and, 'I'll oppose Unification no matter what'.....and it is the people in that grey area who will ultimately decide. You've done the equivalent of taking a poll at a DUP AGM and a SF Ard Fheis....you'll certainly get some numbers out of it, you could examine trends in those numbers and make projections based on them, but the polling method is so flawed to render the analysis and projections entirely useless.

maestroamado

I cannot see the poll that is being talked about, i am just interested in the consensus here.
Am i doing something wrong....

Fionn1952

maestroamado wrote: »

I cannot see the poll that is being talked about, i am just interested in the consensus here.
Am i doing something wrong....

That poster set up another thread for the poll.

Rodin

eire4 wrote: »

After ignoring the 1918 election results which saw a clear majority voting for independence. Democracy not in action!

Unionists only care about 'democracy' when they're in the majority.
They don't actually believe in democracy at all.

eire4

Rodin wrote: »

Unionists only care about 'democracy' when they're in the majority.
They don't actually believe in democracy at all.

Nail on the proverbial head there.

bonzothedog

Fionn1952 wrote: »

It isn't that I expect to see it going one way or the other, it's that I don't expect it to be reflective of the general public, and it'll be down to the general public to vote. You have a huge selection bias; people that care enough about it to discuss it on an online forum. The bias cuts both ways, you'll get people who strongly oppose it and people who strongly favour it.....Great, what useful information can we gain from finding out that people who care enough to discuss unification on an online forum and enough to vote on a poll on said forum have strong opinions on Unification?

My point is that it isn't indicative of the great number of people who occupy the grey area between, 'I'd vote for Unification no matter what' and, 'I'll oppose Unification no matter what'.....and it is the people in that grey area who will ultimately decide. You've done the equivalent of taking a poll at a DUP AGM and a SF Ard Fheis....you'll certainly get some numbers out of it, you could examine trends in those numbers and make projections based on them, but the polling method is so flawed to render the analysis and projections entirely useless.

But wouldn't Boards be fairly reflective of the wider public? I have no political affiliation and am a bit on the fence about re-unification but find the subject kind of compelling the way it seems to have just morphed into the conversation and even unionists seem to accept that a border poll is inevitable. This is a massive shift brought about primarily by Brexit.

I think you are wrong saying that it is like taking a poll at a SF ard fheis or a DUP equivalent. The early voting and commentary on the poll thread seems to indicate a lot more nuance actually. Most of the "No" vote is hardly coming from unionists but people who are worried about propping up the north financially or delaing with the fallout from unification.
The majority so far of the Yes vote seems to be going the way of the "Yes -in 10 years time" option which would suggest they aren't Sinn Fein voters who would probably for the "Yes - ASAP " option.

maestroamado

Fionn1952 wrote: »

That poster set up another thread for the poll.

Thanks...

Fionn1952

bonzothedog wrote: »

But wouldn't Boards be fairly reflective of the wider public? I have no political affiliation and am a bit on the fence about re-unification but find the subject kind of compelling the way it seems to have just morphed into the conversation and even unionists seem to accept that a border poll is inevitable. This is a massive shift brought about primarily by Brexit.

I think you are wrong saying that it is like taking a poll at a SF ard fheis or a DUP equivalent. The early voting and commentary on the poll thread seems to indicate a lot more nuance actually. Most of the "No" vote is hardly coming from unionists but people who are worried about propping up the north financially or delaing with the fallout from unification.
The majority so far of the Yes vote seems to be going the way of the "Yes -in 10 years time" option which would suggest they aren't Sinn Fein voters who would probably for the "Yes - ASAP " option.

If you could get a poll across all Boards posters, it might be more representative of the general public (though any Internet board would introduce a degree of selection bias - just as an example, the age demographics of Boards is unlikely to be accurately representative of the general public), but the selection bias I'm referring to is being created by the thread itself; Boards users who don't have particularly strong feelings either way are less likely to click on a thread and vote in it than those who either strongly support Unification or strongly oppose it. Put it this way, if you were trying to get an accurate representation of whether the general public prefer to eat chicken or beef, posting it in the farming forum would certainly give you diverse answers (poultry farmers and beef farmers are likely to have quite strong opposing opinions on the matter), but John the passionate home cook isn't terribly likely to drop into the Farming forum, Rachel the vegetarian doesn't have an option that reflects her views on that poll and Bob, who slightly prefers beef but doesn't really care won't take the time to vote on it because it isn't important enough for him to click into the thread in the first place even if he did see it.

I consider myself strongly in favour of Unification, and based on the options set out in your poll, I would have to vote for, 'Yes in 10 years' rather than, 'Yes, ASAP', though neither accurately reflect my position. I voted for SF in the past when living in the North (for tactical reasons), and have never given them any sort of notable preference since moving to the other side of the border.

The SF/DUP comparison was meant to be an example of strongly held views that are representative of specific demographics, not a suggestion that only SF or DUP voters would actually vote in your poll. That being said, I did read through some of the commentary on the thread....and nuanced certainly isn't the word that would come to mind reading most of it.