COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

silverharp · 20-03-2021 12:36PM

UK looking pretty good about now

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1373236408098418690

Bubbaclaus · 20-03-2021 01:03PM

silverharp wrote: »

UK looking pretty good about now

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1373236408098418690

There are some concerns that they will be tight for April in terms of 2nd doses required vs expected deliveries, following the announcement of a slowdown in supply for next month. Likely means they will need to stop giving out first doses soon for the most part.

Bubbaclaus · 20-03-2021 01:30PM

The daily vaccine numbers update seems to be a bit later than usual today.

20-03-2021 01:43PM

JTMan wrote: »

FT reports here (paywall) on how some Republic residents can get jabs in NI.

- Irish people with NHS cards able to get vaccinated in North.
- Official criteria is "must be entitled to receive healthcare in Northern Ireland and be registered with a GP in Northern Ireland" but people are able to book without fully meeting this criteria.
- Able to book by using an old healthcare number from previous residency in the UK.
- Article quotes multiple people in Donegal who have got the vaccine in NI.
- Arlene Foster again called on the UK to give surplus doses to the Republic.

I'm sickened I never registered over the border. They changed the rules at the start of last year for registering for NHS/GP in a **** coincidence. Otherwise I'd get an address for a few hundred quid and get it done.

ek motor wrote: »

I hate the term 'vaccine nationalism' , of course governments should be doing all they can to secure vaccines for their own countries . What's wrong with wanting to do what's best for your country ?

It's childish nonsense from people who can't accept that someone else is doing better. Can see it on this forum and the politics one where no-one can admit the Brits are doing a good job. I've had a great laugh at them over Brexit but the conversation goes.
"It's nothing to do with Brexit, they could have done it without leaving."
"Why don't we?"
*tumbleweeds*
"Yeah but look at how they handled the start and their death numbers."
"Can't trust Boris"
"I don't trust Boris but the numbers are there"
"Vaccine nationalism. Brits wrong no matter what."

The EU, despite putting up with the Brexit nonsense for the last few years allowed the Brits to get around them in a very simple prisoners dilemma/Golden Balls scenario. It's an incredibly poor showing and they deserve criticism.

[slight aside] IMO it's a good example of the malaise in most of the West, can see it in Canada as well. It's an almost fatalistic "principle" of doing the "right" thing, avoiding conflict and behaving as if everyone else will just be nice as well. The Brits have pulled out the old-fashioned thinking of doing whatever it takes to suit themselves and the Yanks, despite how the louder people on the internet may make it seem, are the world's only superpower and there are enough people in the positions of power who are willing and able to make use of that status to maintain it.

ACitizenErased · 20-03-2021 01:52PM

12.5% of the adult population have now received a first dose

irishlad. · 20-03-2021 01:57PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit?usp=sharing

Majority of doses going into cohort 3 dose 1. Dose 2 beginning to take off the past two days.

LuckyLloyd · 20-03-2021 01:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

12.5% of the adult population have now received a first dose

Good stuff, getting there

astrofool · 20-03-2021 02:01PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's childish nonsense from people who can't accept that someone else is doing better. Can see it on this forum and the politics one where no-one can admit the Brits are doing a good job. I've had a great laugh at them over Brexit but the conversation goes.
"It's nothing to do with Brexit, they could have done it without leaving."
"Why don't we?"
*tumbleweeds*
"Yeah but look at how they handled the start and their death numbers."
"Can't trust Boris"
"I don't trust Boris but the numbers are there"
"Vaccine nationalism. Brits wrong no matter what."

The Brit reaction was down to the level of ineptitude they had in handling the spread of the virus in the first place, so they took a number of calculated risks that could work out for them, but will still leave them with many more dead people per capita then most other countries.

They have also been playing shenanigans on vaccine supply by taking from the EU supply through the nationalisation of AZ's supply. The EU could have reciprocated, and the EU would be 2-3% further done, and the UK would be reliant solely on their domestic AZ supply (might be at ~15% done by now).

Ireland, as a small country, would not have been able to negotiate first access anyway, and by going in with the EU we get access to the supply that otherwise would have been taken by France/Italy/Netherlands/Germany/Belgium, leaving us with none.

I don't think anyone is saying the UK hasn't done a great job on vaccinating, but:
a) the UK health system was on the verge of collapse and they were heading for a north Italy situation, given your previous postings, you're bloody lucky you lived in Ireland not the UK
b) what they have done only works if they're the only one's doing it, if everybody else had done the same, then Ireland would barely have started vaccinating, and the big producers in the EU would be almost done.
c) the EU and most other countries won't bother dealing with the UK in good faith anymore

20-03-2021 02:22PM

astrofool wrote: »

The Brit reaction was down to the level of ineptitude they had in handling the spread of the virus in the first place, so they took a number of calculated risks that could work out for them, but will still leave them with many more dead people per capita then most other countries.

And again, looking back rather than just the vaccine.

They have also been playing shenanigans on vaccine supply by taking from the EU supply through the nationalisation of AZ's supply. The EU could have reciprocated, and the EU would be 2-3% further done, and the UK would be reliant solely on their domestic AZ supply (might be at ~15% done by now).

Yup, shenanigans rather than just looking after their own interests.

Ireland, as a small country, would not have been able to negotiate first access anyway, and by going in with the EU we get access to the supply that otherwise would have been taken by France/Italy/Netherlands/Germany/Belgium, leaving us with none.

When it was obvious over a month ago that the EU were caught out we could have done something. We're spending €200 million just on the PUP every week. That amount could allow us to offer 5x the standard price of the most expensive vaccine. Bit too late now but 6 weeks ago would any company have turned it down? Israel are almost done, UAE threw some money around. We're still stuck in the "Shrug, sure what can ya do?" argument.

I don't think anyone is saying the UK hasn't done a great job on vaccinating, but:
a) the UK health system was on the verge of collapse and they were heading for a north Italy situation, given your previous postings, you're bloody lucky you lived in Ireland not the UK
b) what they have done only works if they're the only one's doing it, if everybody else had done the same, then Ireland would barely have started vaccinating, and the big producers in the EU would be almost done.
c) the EU and most other countries won't bother dealing with the UK in good faith anymore

The downplaying of what the UK have done and defending of EU ineptitude continues in your post.
a) I unfortunately live close enough to the border to have ignorant, maskless migrant-workers in a shop next to me just about any time I'm in one. We got plenty of the downsides of the UK.
b) As a small market we could have slipped under the radar with a proper contract rather than the unenforceable one the EU signed.
c) I assumed they would have learned that over the almost 5 years since the Brexit vote yet they still allowed themselves to get caught out. That's unforgiveable IMO.

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 20-03-2021 02:24PM

Elessar wrote: »

So according to The Irish Times the Q2 numbers for J&J are:

- 33000 April
- 143000 May
- 429000 June

Anyone know the numbers for Pfizer & AZ for the same months?

Christ, those figures are disappointing and I'd be very surprised if they can ramp up by a factor of 3 in June.

Buy Sputnik. They've offered it to us, it's there for the taking. Get our best scientists to review the data and consult with peers around the world that have approved it.

Micky 32 · 20-03-2021 02:25PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

12.5% of the adult population have now received a first dose

Is Glynn throwing out a bit of positivity? :cool:

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/june-to-see-brighter-days-and-majority-vaccinated-dr-glynn-says-1099157.html

lbj666 · 20-03-2021 02:37PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The J&J projection was/is 600k in Government documents for Q2. Not sure about that 750k, its definitely not right

Ya I probably reading 50k each of the graph insted of say 40k

Szero · 20-03-2021 02:54PM

JTMan wrote: »

- Arlene Foster again called on the UK to give surplus doses to the Republic.

With the US helping their neighbours, Israel sorta helping their neighbours ... surely it is only a matter of time that the UK helps it's only real neighbour?

Best case scenario how are we hoping this will play out?

UK have surplus supplies in early-mid May and offer 2 million doses to Ireland and Ireland rapidly accelerate doses and finish giving all adults dose 1 by the end of May rather than the end of June.

Is this possible?

astrofool · 20-03-2021 02:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The downplaying of what the UK have done and defending of EU ineptitude continues in your post.
a) I unfortunately live close enough to the border to have ignorant, maskless migrant-workers in a shop next to me just about any time I'm in one. We got plenty of the downsides of the UK.
b) As a small market we could have slipped under the radar with a proper contract rather than the unenforceable one the EU signed.
c) I assumed they would have learned that over the almost 5 years since the Brexit vote yet they still allowed themselves to get caught out. That's unforgiveable IMO.

The EU has produced most of the global vaccines, they are prioritising themselves, but also delivering to other nations, it's recognised that we need the world to vaccinate to move on. You are very focused on yourself and your woes, and come across a bit racist with the "migrant-workers" thrown in. Ireland was never going to slip under the radar, we're not into data sharing like Israel, we're not a former eastern bloc country like Hungary, we're a western democracy, so we'll be vaccinated at the same rate as most western democracies.

The "how much it costs" angle coming from people is also stupid, as if the bean counters don't understand how much the lockdowns cost. The issue is with manufacturing and supply (well not really an issue as ramp up has been incredible, but the volume is needed for every human on earth). If the EU could throw a few billion more at it and get it done faster, they would, but there just isn't the supply there to throw it at. Factories take time to build and get up and running, that it happening right now, mere months after the first vaccines proved effective, in 18 months we'll have vast oversupply of vaccine and medicine capacity, but right now we are constrained.

And on top of that, we're 12.5% done with those most vulnerable done, and the next most vulnerable (if they're registered of course...) almost done, as time goes on, the case numbers will become less and less important as the pressure on the health system greatly reduces.

NeuralNetwork · 20-03-2021 02:58PM

Since they don’t manufacture enough doses to meet their domestic demand, that’s unlikely.

The U.K. has ordered a huge amount of doses, the vast majority of which are made in the EU.

The EU has also ordered a vast amount of doses from companies with large manufacturing bases in the EU, which haven’t delivered in sufficient quantities yet.

The US has a similarly huge domestic production capability and has de facto barred exports and is using the threat of using the Defence Production Act to keep the companies in line.

The US has capacity to supply elsewhere as time goes on. The U.K. really does not.

When the U.K. has met its domestic demand, it’s not going to be ordering anymore and it’s certainly not going to be ordering on behalf of richer neighbours, who actually provided the product they were buying.

It’s like asking should Israel (which bought vaccines mostly from Pfizer in Europe) supply Massachusetts.

Unless there’s a spectacular screw up by the manufactures (in which case the U.K. is stuck too) the EU market should have plenty of vaccines in Q2.

Elessar · 20-03-2021 03:03PM

Szero wrote: »

With the US helping their neighbours, Israel sorta helping their neighbours ... surely it is only a matter of time that the UK helps it's only real neighbour?

Best case scenario how are we hoping this will play out?

UK have surplus supplies in early-mid May and offer 2 million doses to Ireland and Ireland rapidly accelerate doses and finish giving all adults dose 1 by the end of May rather than the end of June.

Is this possible?

The UK still have most of their population on 1st dose only and they will likely need as many vaccines as possible to complete not only the 2nd dose, but to ensure they keep their promise of a vaccine for every adult by the end of July.

So it will likely be well into summer before the UK has enough surplus to start giving them out to other countries, by which point we likely won't need them.

Wolf359f · 20-03-2021 03:08PM

Szero wrote: »

With the US helping their neighbours, Israel sorta helping their neighbours ... surely it is only a matter of time that the UK helps it's only real neighbour?

Best case scenario how are we hoping this will play out?

UK have surplus supplies in early-mid May and offer 2 million doses to Ireland and Ireland rapidly accelerate doses and finish giving all adults dose 1 by the end of May rather than the end of June.

Is this possible?

At a guess the UK have used about 15mil doses of Pfizer out of an total order of 40mil. They still have to administer about 75mil doses in total. So they will be relying on AZ to deliver 50mil doses by end of may on your timeline (that's 5 mil a week) I just can't see AZ keeping up with that demand.

Goldengirl · 20-03-2021 03:18PM

JTMan wrote: »

There is a little more here (translation required). Key paragraph below ...

Thanks JTMan for that .

ShineOn7 · 20-03-2021 03:28PM

At least 1/8th of the population has received one shot, which gives them some protection

Almost 5% have received both shots, which is obviously nowhere near as great as the first stat

But hopefully these metrics really ramp up when J&J arrives

https://twitter.com/IrelandVaccine/status/1373255010281263107

Philipmcnill · 20-03-2021 03:30PM

Because people probably are tired of this subject

20-03-2021 03:31PM

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Christ, those figures are disappointing and I'd be very surprised if they can ramp up by a factor of 3 in June.

Buy Sputnik. They've offered it to us, it's there for the taking. Get our best scientists to review the data and consult with peers around the world that have approved it.

It’s not there for the taking. Why is there a belief that there is limitless supplies of the Sputnik vaccine. Very best case we would get some doses in 3 months if we signed a deal today

Goldengirl · 20-03-2021 03:39PM

silverharp wrote: »

UK looking pretty good about now

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1373236408098418690

Yes that is good . And it is working for them .

But don't forget they are now going into 2nd dose vaccinations for all of those that had their mRNA doses pushed out to 12 weeks ,and their supply is reduced for Q2 .
Matt Hancock spoke about this earlier in the week trying to manage people's expectations downwards as they have to do less firstdoses now than they had hoped to be able to do .
But at least their elderly and vulnerable are protected somewhat .

ShineOn7 · 20-03-2021 03:43PM

Elessar wrote: »

So according to The Irish Times the Q2 numbers for J&J are:

- 33000 April
- 143000 May
- 429000 June

Anyone know the numbers for Pfizer & AZ for the same months?

Anyone?

Be great to look forward to Q2

Sweet.Science · 20-03-2021 03:45PM

How long until the EU block exports of the vaccines . Few threats from them today

CIARAN_BOYLE · 20-03-2021 03:51PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

How long until the EU block exports of the vaccines . Few threats from them today

We need to be careful.

The vaccines may be made in Europe but component parts may not be.

We need to be sure we aren't cutting off our nose to spite our face. What if we ban exporting vaccines and someone bans the export of the speciality glass vials they are put in.

The glassware for the Pfizer bioNtech vaccine is a significant portion of the cost of the vaccine due to the speciality fridges.

Are there any elements of the vaccines made in Europe and imported from outside?

20-03-2021 03:54PM

astrofool wrote: »

If you're bothered with a post, report it, the mods will do as necessary, I stand behind my statement, you decided to single out migrant-workers in your post, that was unnecessary, but you get to own that statement and people will make judgement of you over it.

What do you think I meant by migrant workers? Ho hum, guess I'm racist. But really, when someone can't argue in good faith and just throws nonsense accusations around it shows they don't have much faith in the rest of what they're saying.

I deal with facts and data, my opinion will shift as new facts and data come in, as it has over mask wearing, understanding the medicine approval mechanism and the ways the world moves on from the pandemic. As someone in the second last group, I'm not focused on myself and my woes when looking beyond lockdown. When the UK starts dealing in good faith with it's neighbours and stops taking unnecessary risks with it's population, then my opinion will shift accordingly.

Facts and data:
UK have done 4x as many vaccinations per capita than Ireland or the EU.
Feelings: The Brits are being mean so I don't like them.

People are losing jobs and businesses. People are going stir-crazy cooped up in their homes. Waiting lists are growing and growing. I happen to be doing pretty well financially out of things but I'd still prefer if I could see my friends, if my friends trying to organise a wedding could get some kind of solid guidance, if my parents could visit their family and get to bingo and enjoy the bit of life they have left.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 20-03-2021 03:54PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Anyone?

Be great to look forward to Q2

Quarter totals I believe are 2 million for Pfizer and 1.8 million for Astra Zenaca.

I don't know a monthly breakdown. I believe April is supposed to be very high for az as there are millions of doses in storage in a factory in the Netherlands that AZ only just applied for EMA approval for.

20-03-2021 03:54PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes that is good . And it is working for them .

But don't forget they are now going into 2nd dose vaccinations for all of those that had their mRNA doses pushed out to 12 weeks ,and their supply is reduced for Q2 .
Matt Hancock spoke about this earlier in the week trying to manage people's expectations downwards as they have to do less firstdoses now than they had hoped to be able to do .
But at least their elderly and vulnerable are protected somewhat .

Their rate while slowing down will still be well ahead of our "ramping up" rate.

ShineOn7 · 20-03-2021 03:57PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Quarter totals I believe are 2 million for Pfizer and 1.8 million for Astra Zenaca.

For Ireland alone in Q2?

Sounds very, unbelievably, high. But great stuff if true

SheepsClothing · 20-03-2021 03:59PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Their rate while slowing down will still be well ahead of our "ramping up" rate.

Their target is for every adult to have a first dose by the end of July. They will be no faster than ourselves at that rate.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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