COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

eoinbn · 17-03-2021 05:15PM

Ficheall wrote: »

No one is seriously pretending we'll have 82% by end of June, are they?? :eek:

It is possible. Note the 82% is 1+ doses. It doesn't mean fully vaccinated.

82% of adults is 2.9m. That is assuming everyone will take the vaccine - they won't.
By the end of this month we should have 1.1m doses.
Q2 estimates
Pfizer/BioN 2.2m
Astrazen 0.7m
Moderna 0.38m
Johnson&J 0.6m

By the end of June that is 5.38m doses from the 2 dose vaccine suppliers. That is enough for 2.69m people. Add 600k from J&J and you get to 3.29m fully dosed. Timing will make it impossible to have all of those people fully vaccinated but that just means we can potentially have everyone dosed with 1 vaccine by the end of June.
If Curevac deliver in June or AZ supply from outside of the EU then that provides some cover for any issues with the numbers above.

eoinbn · 17-03-2021 05:16PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

When AZ gets back being used next week (assumption on my part) we definitely need to sort Sunday figures going forward

Each day is crucial

Surely that is just a result of running out of vaccines?

JTMan · 17-03-2021 05:40PM

Italy expect distribution of CureVac to start at the end of May

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1372123811370438657

eigrod · 17-03-2021 05:55PM

Interesting development in UK in the last half hour

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372226493393338370?s=21

ACitizenErased · 17-03-2021 05:58PM

eigrod wrote: »

Interesting development in UK in the last half hour

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1372226493393338370?s=21

Where are those doses going so hmmmm

Wolf359f · 17-03-2021 06:01PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Where are those doses going so hmmmm

Should they not be ramping up to start the second doses right about then?

wes · 17-03-2021 06:10PM

Russman wrote: »

If it means getting Europeans vaccinated quicker then who really cares what the Israelis think ? I’m all for good international relations, but it’s time the EU flexed a bit of muscle (if it’s possible).

Israel is not vaccinating Palestinians in the occupied territories. They don't have a leg to stand on, when it comes to morality vis a vi the vaccines.

Danzy · 17-03-2021 06:11PM

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

at least kept the moral high ground with the slower yet more internationalist approach.

Ursula has been a disaster of a President tbh.

The Internationalist, solidarity approach that so many politicians across Europe speak ad nauseam isn't the moral high ground.

It's not vaccinating here, it's not vaccinating the poor countries.

What it will do is soak up the excess doses from America and Britain that they were going to give to poor countries. It's not because they are saintly States,they are not, that they are better, they are not, it's just that they pulled their weight.

Listing out excuses isn't vaccinating people.

Stheno · 17-03-2021 06:13PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Where are those doses going so hmmmm

Seems they have given out more first doses than they should of Pfizer and now have to stop Pfizer to new people to be able to give the second shot, but may still not have enough second shots

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9368257/UK-start-rationing-doses-Pfizers-Covid-vaccine-weeks.html

ACitizenErased · 17-03-2021 06:32PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Should they not be ramping up to start the second doses right about then?

Issue with inbound supply is the reason it seems

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1372231285943451662

JacksonHeightsOwn · 17-03-2021 06:32PM

JTMan wrote: »

Italy expect distribution of CureVac to start at the end of May

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1372123811370438657

I wonder what this guy knows that we don't?

Hopefully true of course and didn't the EU basically bankroll this particular vaccine as well??

ACitizenErased · 17-03-2021 06:36PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I wonder what this guy knows that we don't?

Hopefully true of course and didn't the EU basically bankroll this particular vaccine as well??

You can roughly calculate the timeline based on when the rolling review starts

Wolf359f · 17-03-2021 06:41PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Issue with inbound supply is the reason it seems

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1372231285943451662

Inbound supply.... Can't say imported vaccines can they?

Gile_na_gile · 17-03-2021 06:48PM

Whatever about getting AZ stocks from UK factories, there is an argument for taking it out of AZ's hands altogether and handing over production (and IP) to companies that can help it deliver. I presume this would be in the same factories, given the long timelines needed to build production. Alternatively, just have them produce J&J.....

eoinbn · 17-03-2021 06:49PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I wonder what this guy knows that we don't?

Hopefully true of course and didn't the EU basically bankroll this particular vaccine as well??

Nothing new. The CEO of Curevac expects it to be approved in late May or early June hence the earliest we can expect delivers is late May but likely to be June. We haven't yet seen P3 data so there are a few hurdles to clear first. Data from Sweden suggests that 55m doses could be delivered in June which would suggest it is already been manufactured in reasonable quantities.

ACitizenErased · 17-03-2021 06:52PM

The Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well. This is their Deputy CMO today:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1372242828735168520?s=20

timsey tiger · 17-03-2021 07:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well. This is their Deputy CMO today:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1372242828735168520?s=20

They can reassurance their subjects as they see fit.

brickster69 · 17-03-2021 07:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well. This is their Deputy CMO today:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1372242828735168520?s=20

How does that mean the Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well ?

ACitizenErased · 17-03-2021 07:29PM

brickster69 wrote: »

How does that mean the Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well ?

It's literally a rant about how the benefits of most medicines outweigh the risks.

Water John · 17-03-2021 07:42PM

It's pretty poor from a CMO office and partisan.

Wolf359f · 17-03-2021 07:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The Brits aren't taking the AZ stoppage very well. This is their Deputy CMO today:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1372242828735168520?s=20

God forbid during effectively phase 4 trials, a new rare side effect could be found. I'm sure all those known side effects he called out on the paracetamol would have had more added after phase 3 trials.

NeuralNetwork · 17-03-2021 07:55PM

Those playing politics around this are destroying confidence, really frightening and depressing people and could well cause a trade dispute.

I know I am totally fed up with the angry ranting from the U.K. that seems to be cheering on the fact the EU programme hasn’t gone as fast and utterly ignoring the fact that the EU plants have exported 35m+ vaccines.

If anything the country being most vaccine nationalistic is the USA. They’ve refused to supply any export markets and that has placed huge production burden primarily on EU plants as we’ve been supplying the western vaccines to most of the world, including Canada and Mexico amongst others who’d be supplied by the USA normally.

EU plants have also produced the vaccines for all of the U.K. Pfizer doses and a large % of the AstraZeneca ones too by the looks of it.

Yet apparently it’s the EU being selfish. Never let facts get in the way of a Fleet Street tabloid europhobic/xenophobic rant article.

They could have gone with the notion of EU first and graciously offered any spare vaccines at the end of the EU programme, but they didn’t because that isn’t how the EU tends to operate but it’s exactly what the US has done and appears to be what the U.K. is doing, albeit with better spin doctors at the helm. Also there doesn’t appear to be any significant production capacity in the U.K. to meet any export demand anyway so it’s a bit of a moot point.

You’re also looking at a situation where there’ll be huge capacity in Europe in the next few months that will be supplying several billion doses globally, but again ... rant, rant, rant ...

17-03-2021 08:32PM

The EU got caught out by some simple game theory. Being all high-minded and going for solidarity only works when all parties are on board. Once the other party isn't on board you're only shooting yourself in the face by continuing on the path. The Brits made it perfectly clear by the middle of last year they were going on their own, I naively assumed the EU would factor that into their decision making and policy going forward but it looks like they didn't.

Sweet.Science · 17-03-2021 08:37PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The EU got caught out by some simple game theory. Being all high-minded and going for solidarity only works when all parties are on board. Once the other party isn't on board you're only shooting yourself in the face by continuing on the path. The Brits made it perfectly clear by the middle of last year they were going on their own, I naively assumed the EU would factor that into their decision making and policy going forward but it looks like they didn't.

We probably won't be too far behind the UK if AZ gets approved again within a few days

Apogee · 17-03-2021 08:40PM

For the day that's in it...
https://twitter.com/AchillDoc/status/1372240727816744962

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 08:40PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The EU got caught out by some simple game theory. Being all high-minded and going for solidarity only works when all parties are on board. Once the other party isn't on board you're only shooting yourself in the face by continuing on the path. The Brits made it perfectly clear by the middle of last year they were going on their own, I naively assumed the EU would factor that into their decision making and policy going forward but it looks like they didn't.

Are you saying that the EU should have prevented vaccines from being exported from the block, leaving several countries (including the UK) with insufficient access to vaccines?

NeuralNetwork · 17-03-2021 08:46PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Are you saying that the EU should have prevented vaccines from being exported from the block, leaving several countries (including the UK) with insufficient access to vaccines?

That’s precisely what the USA did to Canada.

Sanjuro · 17-03-2021 08:46PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

You’re also looking at a situation where there’ll be huge capacity in Europe in the next few months that will be supplying several billion doses globally, but again ... rant, rant, rant ...

Sorry if this sounds a little confrontational, as its not what I'm trying to be. But how are you confident this will happen? I was quite confident that things would ramp up about a month ago, but recently I've become a bit more disillusioned with the constant AZ situation and seemingly constant number of shots being administered with no significant increase week on week. Things seem to have ground to a snail's pace. Am I reading the situation incorrectly? I certainly hope so.

WoollyRedHat · 17-03-2021 09:00PM

Sanjuro wrote: »

Sorry if this sounds a little confrontational, as its not what I'm trying to be. But how are you confident this will happen? I was quite confident that things would ramp up about a month ago, but recently I've become a bit more disillusioned with the constant AZ situation and seemingly constant number of shots being administered with no significant increase week on week. Things seem to have ground to a snail's pace. Am I reading the situation incorrectly? I certainly hope so.

Another factory is due to come on stream in Netherlands shortly.

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 09:03PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

That’s precisely what the USA did to Canada.

Yes I'm well aware of that, just wondering if those ranting would be happy for the EU to leave other countries short on vaccines.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Comments