COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

hynesie08 · 16-03-2021 10:14PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Reports that we're in negotiations to do a swap deal, for every american.we allow over, we get one vaccine. Government also in talks to name an actual Plaza after Biden if he throws some vaccines our way.

Careful, some don't get sarcasm around here....

JTMan · 16-03-2021 10:21PM

Not good news for the AZ vaccine ...

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1371931389256376321

Micky 32 · 16-03-2021 10:53PM

“” Commission to propose Covid certificate to allow EU-wide travel””

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/commission-to-propose-covid-certificate-to-allow-eu-wide-travel-1.4512300?mode=amp

stephenjmcd · 16-03-2021 11:06PM

JTMan wrote: »

Not good news for the AZ vaccine ...

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1371931389256376321

Very similar to a few of the other studies out of South Africa. Big margins of error with a relatively small sample set. Also not correct dosing schedule

All looks very similar to J&J initial findings

lbj666 · 16-03-2021 11:29PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Very similar to a few of the other studies out of South Africa. Big margins of error with a relatively small sample set. Also not correct dosing schedule

All looks very similar to J&J initial findings

If you have 2 studies showing similar results with very broad confidence intervals, surely the actual confidence interval is narrower due to if two independent studies showing similar results.

Or are they independent? Haven't read it all. Either the study doesn't focus on severe illness which is the key thing we were focussing on with the SA variant.

ACitizenErased · 16-03-2021 11:37PM

Think it's becoming quite clear the chances of the SA variant becoming dominant while B.1.1.7 is around are slim so realistically the results don't have much real world significance to us

JPup · 16-03-2021 11:41PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Very similar to a few of the other studies out of South Africa. Big margins of error with a relatively small sample set. Also not correct dosing schedule

All looks very similar to J&J initial findings

Are you sure about that? I have no expertise here, but the headlines I've seen were that J&J was more than 60% effective against the South Africa variant. That seems to be much higher than for the Oxford vaccine.

Perhaps a good reason to keep that one for the under 70s? If the South African variant was to travel over here later in the year, you don't want your most vulnerable age groups being exposed to it.

robinph · 16-03-2021 11:41PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Very similar to a few of the other studies out of South Africa. Big margins of error with a relatively small sample set. Also not correct dosing schedule

All looks very similar to J&J initial findings

Is it not the same study that was being talked about last month, but now actually published?

ACitizenErased · 16-03-2021 11:42PM

robinph wrote: »

Is it not the same study that was being talked about last month, but now actually published?

That was Novavax, different vaccine

16-03-2021 11:44PM

lbj666 wrote: »

If you have 2 studies showing similar results with very broad confidence intervals, surely the actual confidence interval is narrower due to if two independent studies showing similar results.

Or are they independent? Haven't read it all. Either the study doesn't focus on severe illness which is the key thing we were focussing on with the SA variant.

It's the same study just in a different journal. The problems with it were already discussed here a while back.

Insufficient sample size.
Demographics that don't allow assessment of disease severity or rate of hospitalizations.
Low number of cases.
Sub-optimal dosing strategy.
Confidence intervals you could fly a jumbo jet through.

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 17-03-2021 06:15AM

Some positive news amongst the doom & gloom of the AZ suspension at least.

A new agreement for Germany's IDT Biologika to help in the production of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccines would offer Europe greater certainty on the delivery of the jabs, Germany's economy minister said Monday.

The deal, announced by IDT Biologika and Johnson & Johnson's German subsidiary Janssen, will allow the latter's newly approved single-dose vaccine to be filled and bottled on German soil amid fears over restrictions imposed by the United States on the export of domestically produced vaccines.

"Vaccine production in Europe and Germany increases delivery certainty and is a very important signal in the current phase of the pandemic," said Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in a statement welcoming the agreement.

Janssen also said that "this cooperation will make it more possible for us to deliver our Covid-19 vaccine worldwide".

While Johnson & Johnson also produces its vaccine in Europe, doses are subsequently sent to the US for the so called "fill and finish" process of bottling and packaging.

The Defence Production Act in place now in the United States requires that Americans be given priority for domestically produced vaccines, effectively severely restricting exports of vaccines made in the US.

On Friday, German Health Minister Jens Spahn warned that Germany would have to wait until "mid-to-late April" for the Johnson & Johnson jab, which last week became the fourth vaccine to be approved by the EU.

With Berlin citing US export restrictions and production issues as the cause of the delay, Spahn said that Germany and the EU were working on "short-term solutions" to the problem, such as setting up production facilities on German soil.

The IDT Biologika deal appears to be just such a solution, with Johnson & Johnson temporarily taking over capacities otherwise reserved by fellow German pharmaceuticals company Takeda for its dengue fever vaccine candidate.

The capacities at the factory in Dessau, northeast Germany, would be returned to Takeda after three months, said IDT Biologika on Monday.

"I am very grateful to Takeda for their flexibility. The last months have shown clearly that challenges raised by the pandemic can only be met through cooperation and engagement," said IDT Biologika CEO Juergen Betzing.

It remains unclear how many doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be bottled and packaged in Dessau over the course of the three months.

Contacted by AFP, neither Janssen nor IDT Biologika was able to immediately provide a figure for the volume of doses that could be handled over the three months at the Dessau plant.

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 06:58AM

F&F of J&J in Europe has the potential to be a game changer here, single dose vaccine with good supply over the summer could see huge numbers of people get the jab.

Danzy · 17-03-2021 08:07AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

F&F of J&J in Europe has the potential to be a game changer here, single dose vaccine with good supply over the summer could see huge numbers of people get the jab.

It is but the very modest Eu target of 70% of adults vaccinated by September is now gone.

That has serious real world repercussions for Europe.

JTMan · 17-03-2021 08:10AM

Irish Times reports here that it will take a few days to resume Oxford/AZ vaccines.

political sources expressed hope that the vaccine could be pressed back into action by the weekend, if a favourable outcome transpired. However, HSE sources poured cold water on this, saying it would take several days to “re-start” as cancelled appointments would need to be re-booked and doses would also have to be shipped out to vaccination centres.

Sky King · 17-03-2021 08:17AM

Danzy wrote: »

It is but the very modest Eu target of 70% of adults vaccinated by September is now gone..

Is it? Where did you read that?

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 17-03-2021 08:22AM

JTMan wrote: »

Irish Times reports here that it will take a few days to resume Oxford/AZ vaccines.

Well, on the bright side you could say we'll have double the AZ supply next week and it's good practice for April when things will be scaling up massively.

People will get ill from the infection during the week it has been on hold which isn't good and it's annoying to see Brexit lovers on social media crowing and spreading venom, but maybe the bigger picture isn't so bad.

Sky King · 17-03-2021 08:31AM

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

it's annoying to see Brexit lovers on social media crowing and spreading venom, .

It sure is.

They could of course have still pursued their vaccination strategy without going to the hassle of destroying their economy /trade / International reputation as the two are not really related but I guess that doesn't fit with the average brexiters world view.

Godot. · 17-03-2021 08:53AM

The Moderna boys finally getting into gear?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lonza-moderna-idUSKBN2B72BB

Szero · 17-03-2021 08:54AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

good supply over the summer could see huge numbers of people get the jab.

Assuming we get 82% of adults vaccinated by the end of June, what happens in July? Do we start speeding up second doses? i.e. not having people wait 12 weeks for the second dose of AZ etc?

JacksonHeightsOwn · 17-03-2021 08:57AM

Szero wrote: »

Assuming we get 82% of adults vaccinated by the end of June, what happens in July? Do we start speeding up second doses? i.e. not having people wait 12 weeks for the second dose of AZ etc?

the 12 week interval between jabs with the AZ vaccine is the best timing for highest efficacy, so that one will stay in place id imagine.

Presumably the others are still a 3-4 week one

rm212 · 17-03-2021 09:19AM

JTMan wrote: »

Irish Times reports here that it will take a few days to resume Oxford/AZ vaccines.

The HSE are just the worst. Booking appointments again and shipping out vaccines are both easily achievable on the same day that the vaccine is re-instated, allowing appointments to start the following morning. But you know, that would require some actual work...

spakman · 17-03-2021 09:25AM

rm212 wrote: »

The HSE are just the worst. Booking appointments again and shipping out vaccines are both easily achievable on the same day that the vaccine is re-instated, allowing appointments to start the following morning. But you know, that would require some actual work...

A lot of people would require more than a day's notice to be able to get to an appointment.

Pete_Cavan · 17-03-2021 09:37AM

rm212 wrote: »

The HSE are just the worst. Booking appointments again and shipping out vaccines are both easily achievable on the same day that the vaccine is re-instated, allowing appointments to start the following morning. But you know, that would require some actual work...

If the all clear is given on Thursday, realistically it will be Monday before things get going again. That gives time for appointments to be booked for next week giving people sufficient notice, vaccines distributed from central storage to where they get administered, rosters for those giving the vaccinations for this weekend are already set and would be difficult to change at short notice. Taking a couple of days makes more sense for everyone than desperately trying to coordinate everything at the drop of a hat.

eoinbn · 17-03-2021 09:57AM

Sky King wrote: »

Is it? Where did you read that?

Made it up.
All going to plan, Europe will have enough vaccines for ALL adults by the end of July. However that doesn't mean we will be finished by then.
If you get your first dose of AZ on July 1st then you are due to get your second in late September. The UK is testing alternate doses of AZ/Pfizer which could eliminate this issue and improve the effectiveness.
There is also vaccine hesitancy - especially on the continent which will likely be the main barrier to hitting 70%.

JTMan · 17-03-2021 10:12AM

eoinbn wrote: »

All going to plan, Europe will have enough vaccines for ALL adults by the end of July. However that doesn't mean we will be finished by then.

Yeah, but 100% of those aged 16 and over do not want the vaccine. If only 80% want the vaccine (as some surveys suggest) then everyone 16 and over, who wants the vaccine, in Europe, should have their first dose by the end of June.

eoinbn wrote: »

There is also vaccine hesitancy - especially on the continent which will likely be the main barrier to hitting 70%.

Herd immunity is apparently closer to 80% thanks to the British variant. As the WSJ reports here it is impossible to reach herd immunity until we start vaccinating those 15 and younger (and Ireland has a higher youth population than other countries). In the meantime, post end of June, the focus needs to shift towards those that "could not be bothered" to get the vaccine. Israel are giving free pizza, beers, concerns and engaging in social outreach to get this group of people to get vaccines. This type of thing needs to occur here in July.

robinph · 17-03-2021 10:45AM

spakman wrote: »

A lot of people would require more than a day's notice to be able to get to an appointment.

And a lot of other people would be at the venue for the vaccine within the hour if you told them it was available. If the vaccines are there, just get them into people's arms.

rm212 · 17-03-2021 10:51AM

spakman wrote: »

A lot of people would require more than a day's notice to be able to get to an appointment.

I was given 2 days notice for my appointment on Monday, which was cancelled due to this suspension. That’s before they had to cancel and resume... it’s not like they were giving a huge amount of notice anyway. I also know several who were given 1 day of notice.

rm212 · 17-03-2021 10:58AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

If the all clear is given on Thursday, realistically it will be Monday before things get going again. That gives time for appointments to be booked for next week giving people sufficient notice, vaccines distributed from central storage to where they get administered, rosters for those giving the vaccinations for this weekend are already set and would be difficult to change at short notice. Taking a couple of days makes more sense for everyone than desperately trying to coordinate everything at the drop of a hat.

As I said in the comment above, I was one of the people who had an appointment for Monday which was cancelled, I was given <48 hours notice for it and know some with the same medical condition as myself who were given <24 hours.

Danno · 17-03-2021 11:18AM

JTMan wrote: »

...Israel are giving free pizza, beers, concerns and engaging in social outreach to get this group of people to get vaccines. This type of thing needs to occur here in July.

How can we do this with the pubs closed? The dogs on the street know that the pubs will not open until at least after the August Bank Holiday weekend, and even at that it could be September!!!

timsey tiger · 17-03-2021 11:24AM

Danno wrote: »

How can we do this with the pubs closed? The dogs on the street know that the pubs will not open until at least after the August Bank Holiday weekend, and even at that it could be September!!!

You can get beer in an off licence, you know.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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