Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

Monster249 · 12-03-2021 03:16PM

Graham wrote: »

I think there's a misconception that there's a single magic number of cases that will trigger the lowering of restrictions to the next level and that NPHET just don't want to share it with us.

It's understandable given the emphasis that's been put on case numbers over the last year.

I can't imagine the reality is anything like that simplistic. There's more likely to be dozens of variables taken into account when decisions are made and that's not something that can be easily communicated.

Case number can really only give us an indication whether we're broadly heading in the right/wrong direction and at what speed.

Most of the frustration is coming from 1) the communication, 2) the constant blaming of the public every time there's a small slip & 3) how conservative the country is being despite having the longest lockdown in Europe

The current rate of opening would be fine if we didn't have to endure 9 months of lockdown prior to this, that's what happens when you hit the big red lockdown button too much, it starts to become less effective and you have less support.

TonyMaloney · 12-03-2021 03:20PM

Billgirlylegs wrote: »

Apologies if someone jumped over this earlier. Just reading it now.

Cillian de Gascun described B117 in early January as being responsible for 3% of the cases. The "experts" had been flapping about a spike in cases by 21 December 2020 and we got the usual series of lectures about letting our guard down and opening up.
Yet "they" (Experts/Government/NEPHET/HSE/some experts on Boards) were tut tutting about Christmas Dinner and "socialising" being responsible.
It was only after "they" dropped the ball - again - that "they" finally copped on and realised B117 was the issue here.

All made worse because this more contagious version hit here at the worst time of the year for crappy weather, short daylight and generally being the time when people pick up coughs, colds, and all those sneezy doses.
And it is the time when death rates hit a peak.

An earlier contribution said "they" - presumably referring to and including Experts/Government/NEPHET/HSE - had done a good job.

No.

You fundamentally don't understand what happened over Christmas. You're also misquoting de Gascun with that figure.

We would still have had a disaster at Christmas even without B117 due to a level of socialising in dangerous settings that was unmatched in Europe.
This socialising also took relatively low levels of B117 and gave it a huge opportunity for it to become the dominant variant in an accelerated manner.

And that's why we're all sat indoors howling at the internet right now.

Monster249 · 12-03-2021 03:22PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You fundamentally don't understand what happened over Christmas. You're also misquoting de Gascun with that figure.

We would still have had a disaster at Christmas even without B117 due to a level of socialising in dangerous settings that was unmatched in Europe.
This socialising also took relatively low levels of B117 and gave it a huge opportunity for it to become the dominant variant in an accelerated manner.

And that's why we're all sat indoors howling at the internet right now.

Which begs the question, had they not have had such strict measures in place pre-December, would we have seen such an exponential increase? I genuinely doubt it, given people wouldn't have been so starved for normal life.

Graham · 12-03-2021 03:23PM

Monster249 wrote: »

Most of the frustration is coming from 1) the communication, 2) the constant blaming of the public every time there's a small slip & 3) how conservative the country is being despite having the longest lockdown in Europe

The current rate of opening would be fine if we didn't have to endure 9 months of lockdown prior to this, that's what happens when you hit the big red lockdown button too much, it starts to become less effective and you have less support.

See, I don't see blame although I can understand why some might.

If people move around more in certain settings which increases the transmission of Covid, that fact needs to be presented so it can be changed/fixed.

I do get what you're saying about lockdowns, I think half our problem is they're not enforced properly which means they drag on much longer than they otherwise would.

I'd like to see proper enforcement for a couple of weeks. Not to punish people, certainly not because I like seeing my own freedoms restricted but because I think it will be the quickest way to get us where we need to be to see restrictions eased.

hynesie08 · 12-03-2021 03:23PM

Monster249 wrote: »

That's worldwide trending, not trending in Ireland.

If you're too lazy to change location.

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ypres5 · 12-03-2021 03:24PM

landofthetree wrote: »

The Irish Plant Contractors Association (IPCA) is concerned that thousands of skilled machine operators are being targeted, saying up to six British firms are now stepping up advertising campaigns.

It believes about 2,500 people who were working in Ireland have already accepted positions and that the trend threatens to undermine Irish building projects.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-recruitment-drive-for-builders-sparks-fear-of-exodus-1.4508053

The consequences of the harshest lockdown in Europe.

good luck to them if i wasn't tied down with college id be joining them they don't owe the country anything

gozunda · 12-03-2021 03:24PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Which is exactly what most posters do to form the opinion that the rest of Europe has been as suppressed as Ireland since this day last year

I believe one of the biggest issues is people here thinking that Ireland alone is dealing with a pandemic or that we have problems that other countries do not.

Lockdown levels/ restrictions are difficult at best to compare across sub-regions such as Europe and nigh on impossible when it comes to the US or futher afield.

Our different levels of restrictions have varied from the lowest to the highest over the last year

The present level of restrictions came from an increase which was observable in August / September/ October. This was rolled back for 3 weeks with the knowledge due to rising levels we would likley return to a similar level in January. Which is exactly what happened.

The UK and Germany are perhaps two countries that adopted a similar approach (and no I'm not comparing them directly) but the difference was they didn't roll back restrictions prior to Christmas and are now only starting to open up with a long way to go - just as we are.

Boggles · 12-03-2021 03:25PM

Poor Chris Wilder.

Graham · 12-03-2021 03:27PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Personally, I'd like it if those variables were shared, even if they are complex, and wouldn't have an issue with them being revised if needs be. It's the not knowing that gets me.

I can accept I'm probably in a minority there and that there are people who would go on about broken promises if revisions occurred. It's a tricky situation and it's hard to please everyone.

I wouldn't mind seeing them either on the understanding that the variables themselves are likely to change over time.

The danger there is we'd see the anticipatory behaviour we're already seeing as we get closer to April. For some, the expectation of a relaxation of restrictions in a few weeks is changing their behaviour now putting us all at greater risk that it won't happen.

TonyMaloney · 12-03-2021 03:30PM

Monster249 wrote: »

Which begs the question, had they not have had such strict measures in place pre-December, would we have seen such an exponential increase? I genuinely doubt it, given people wouldn't have been so starved for normal life.

But the restrictions prior to Christmas were to kill off the second wave. And it worked really, really well.

I've never argued about the idea of a sort of pent up social energy being a factor in December. It's hard to say how big a role it played though.
But if it was a big factor, it was created by restrictions that were necessary at the time.

So surely the thing to do was not to open up the settings where this energy could do the most damage?

Russman · 12-03-2021 03:33PM

Just regarding that German plan, and the version that was linked on here a few days ago, one of their metrics is when cases get to 50 or below (I think its the 7 day incidence) by a certain date, they can do XYZ, which is fair enough.
Now, here in Ireland, if we had the same plan and cases only got to 52 on the given date, would peoples reaction be "no, we have to wait until we reach the target, might take another week or two" or "sure its 52, its the same thing, open up t'fu-k" ?

Monster249 · 12-03-2021 03:36PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

But the restrictions prior to Christmas were to kill off the second wave. And it worked really, really well.

I've never argued about the idea of a sort of pent up social energy being a factor in December. It's hard to say how big a role it played though.
But if it was a big factor, it was created by restrictions that were necessary at the time.

So surely the thing to do was not to open up the settings where this energy could do the most damage?

This is like an infinity loop though.

Harsh lockdown restrictions -> causing pent-up anger & less compliance -> causing people to flood to shopping centres, etc. when stuff opens -> rise in cases -> repeat

It's not 'living with covid'. Their only plan right now is to kick the can down the road until enough are vaccinated which just isn't good enough 12 months into this thing. The vast majority of nations have employed some common sense & nuance in their restrictions in order to actually help people live their lives.

I see what the Government are doing and I can understand why they're doing it but it's so overly-conservative and it's severely damaging so many branches of our country in the process. It's not acceptable that they haven't raised ICU capacity to deal with a higher level of the virus, it's not acceptable that they literally have just let NPHET decide so they can sit back and hold their hands up.

gozunda · 12-03-2021 03:40PM

normanoffside wrote: »

There is definitely a changing tide now. #Endthelockdown is trending on twitter and being vocalised by people who were previously in favour of most restrictions.

This is the most vocal I have seen McNamara

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1370352381083455492

I especially like this pint (which I pointed to yesterday)

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1370353671586918401

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1370354661832724484

Is it? Lol.

Michael McNamara has never been in favour of more restrictions or even the status quo. He is on record of referring to various restrictions as hysteria even in 2020.

He is also an independent with an eye on running in the next election and getting :❤: for his twitter comments.

I wouldn't be paying him too much attention tbf

ypres5 · 12-03-2021 03:43PM

gozunda wrote: »

Is it? Lol.

Michael McNamara has never been in favour of more restrictions or even the status quo. He is on record of referring to various restrictions as hysteria even in 2020.

He is also an independent with an eye on running in the next election and getting :❤: for his twitter comments.

I wouldn't be paying him too much attention tbf

so you can't formulate an argument so you resort to character assassination and assumptions instead. Sound's about right

Boggles · 12-03-2021 03:45PM

ypres5 wrote: »

so you can't formulate an argument so you resort to character assassination and assumptions instead. Sound's about right

ypres5 wrote: »

if you had even a dozen more mcnamara's in the dail I can assure you chomedome nolans cough would be well and truly softened

I suppose he could have went lower and attacked his appearance.

TonyMaloney · 12-03-2021 03:46PM

Monster249 wrote: »

This is like an infinity loop though.

Harsh lockdown restrictions -> causing pent-up anger & less compliance -> causing people to flood to shopping centres, etc. when stuff opens -> rise in cases -> repeat

It's not 'living with covid'. Their only plan right now is to kick the can down the road until enough are vaccinated which just isn't good enough 12 months into this thing. The vast majority of nations have employed some common sense & nuance in their restrictions in order to actually help people live their lives.

I see what the Government are doing and I can understand why they're doing it but it's so overly-conservative and it's severely damaging so many branches of our country in the process. It's not acceptable that they haven't raised ICU capacity to deal with a higher level of the virus, it's not acceptable that they literally have just let NPHET decide so they can sit back and hold their hands up.

I'm certain nphet would love nothing more than having increased ICU capacity. It has little to do with them though, and it's not a quick fix.
I think more could certainly could have been done, but even if we'd somehow quadrupled capacity, we still wouldn't be comfortable.

I feel a lot of you are ignoring the actual plan and ignoring the relaxation of restrictions that is currently taking place.
If you have kids of school going age, this is looking like a good month for you. Things are surely a lot closer to normal.

If you don't have kids, then in your perception things might not have changed much at all.

Klonker · 12-03-2021 03:49PM

So it sounds like we are at moving to level 5 on April 5th. What's likely to happen at best is construction go back, click and collect return, children/teens allowed train outside in small non contact groups, tennis/golf back and possible increase of 5km thrown in as a token gesture.
All of these with exception of tennis/golf and 5km rule was level 5 back in October. Its less restrictions than before but its pushing it to call it an easing of restrictions.

It's the timeline that's more frightening though. Next review is touted as 6 weeks later so mid May and already it sounds like non essential retail won't open or hairdressers. That would push these back to early June more than likely. Then another at least 6 weeks for reataurants to reopen and you're into July. At that stage almost all adults should have gotten a dose. My hope and I mentioned it before is we'll see how well England's cautious reopening is and we can follow suit but government are going to have to stand up to NPHET at some stage and make a few decisions.

ypres5 · 12-03-2021 03:50PM

Boggles wrote: »

I suppose he could have went lower and attacked his appearance.

bit hypocritical you pulling me up as I recall you outright stated some doctor was mentally ill and his family had staged an intervention so you've a tall high horse to climb down from before you get to lecture me

Boggles · 12-03-2021 03:51PM

ypres5 wrote: »

bit hypocritical you pulling me up as I recall you outright stated some doctor was mentally ill and his family had staged an intervention so you've a tall high horse to climb down from before you get to lecture me

I'm not the one feigning outrage.

Speaking of which, that Doctor has gone very quiet has he given any more thoughts since?

ypres5 · 12-03-2021 03:53PM

Boggles wrote: »

I'm not the one feigning outrage.

Speaking of which, that Doctor has gone very quiet has he given any more thoughts since?

good thing I'm not feigning outrage either you're the one who got upset at me making a joke at philip nolans expense for whatever reason

Boggles · 12-03-2021 03:55PM

ypres5 wrote: »

good thing I'm not feigning outrage either you're the one who got upset at me making a joke at philip nolans expense for whatever reason

Nope. I was calling you out on your hypocrisy.

ypres5 · 12-03-2021 03:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

Nope. I was calling you out on your hypocrisy.

bit of a difference between making a joke about a bald person being bald and making tasteless jabs at someone being mentally ill and if you can't see the very obvious difference then i think it's best we leave it here

Klonker · 12-03-2021 03:57PM

Russman wrote: »

Just regarding that German plan, and the version that was linked on here a few days ago, one of their metrics is when cases get to 50 or below (I think its the 7 day incidence) by a certain date, they can do XYZ, which is fair enough.
Now, here in Ireland, if we had the same plan and cases only got to 52 on the given date, would peoples reaction be "no, we have to wait until we reach the target, might take another week or two" or "sure its 52, its the same thing, open up t'fu-k" ?

Yeah I don't really agree with given numbers as targets particularly in terms of cases as for example 200 cases now is not the same as 200 cases in a months or 2 months time when a lot more of the vulnerable will be vaccinated and those 200 cases will lead to a lot less hospital and ICU numbers and deaths.

What I do have an issue with is Leo and Michael but coming out saying we'll be focusing on the numbers etc. and all these other metrics and then say there'll be next to no change between now and late May. What's the point even looking at all these metrics so? It sounds like the plan is to ease the bare minimum until about 70% of adults have had a first dose and it doesn't really matter what happens between now and then.

Stheno · 12-03-2021 04:00PM

Klonker wrote: »

So it sounds like we are at moving to level 5 on April 5th. What's likely to happen at best is construction go back, click and collect return, children/teens allowed train outside in small non contact groups, tennis/golf back and possible increase of 5km thrown in as a token gesture.
All of these with exception of tennis/golf and 5km rule was level 5 back in October. Its less restrictions than before but its pushing it to call it an easing of restrictions.

It's the timeline that's more frightening though. Next review is touted as 6 weeks later so mid May and already it sounds like non essential retail won't open or hairdressers. That would push these back to early June more than likely. Then another at least 6 weeks for reataurants to reopen and you're into July. At that stage almost all adults should have gotten a dose. My hope and I mentioned it before is we'll see how well England's cautious reopening is and we can follow suit but government are going to have to stand up to NPHET at some stage and make a few decisions.

Phillip Nolan on Morning Ireland

This doesn't sound good - 20 weeks is the end of July :eek)

In 10 weeks’ time we will be in a different place, and 10 weeks further down the line we’ll be in a much different place but I worry that we will squander the sacrifice of thousands of people over the last 52 weeks if we rush to do things too quickly in the next 10-20 weeks,” he said while speaking on RTÉ Radio One's Morning Ireland.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/nphet-seeing-early-worrying-signs-philip-nolan-urges-people-not-to-squander-52-weeks-of-sacrifice-40187690.html

ypres5 · 12-03-2021 04:04PM

Stheno wrote: »

Phillip Nolan on Morning Ireland

This doesn't sound good - 20 weeks is the end of July :eek)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/nphet-seeing-early-worrying-signs-philip-nolan-urges-people-not-to-squander-52-weeks-of-sacrifice-40187690.html

remember by that point the uk will have reintroduced international travel for 2 months at that point. it's going to be worse than this time last year

Russman · 12-03-2021 04:04PM

Klonker wrote: »

Yeah I don't really agree with given numbers as targets particularly in terms of cases as for example 200 cases now is not the same as 200 cases in a months or 2 months time when a lot more of the vulnerable will be vaccinated and those 200 cases will lead to a lot less hospital and ICU numbers and deaths.
.

Exactly. I think its far from a linear relationship between restrictions and case numbers. There are far more variables that go into it, and I assume, a lot of judgement calls too.
To be fair, they're caught between a rock and a hard place - give metrics and they'll be used as a stick to beat them with, and don't give them and they're accused of not having a clue, or various other charges.

wakka12 · 12-03-2021 04:05PM

So Joe Biden has anncounced that nationwide gatherings and celebrations for 4th of July look feasible, UK is also set to allow lagre gatherings and celebration by July as well. No doubt most of Europe will follow suit even if vaccinations are lagging behind those places and will have at least close to normal summer holidays.

I'm scared to know what NPHET's ideal timeline would be, I really wouldn't be surprised if they said no chance of large gatherings or festivals in the rest of 2021, not a bit surprised.

PTH2009 · 12-03-2021 04:06PM

Stheno wrote: »

Phillip Nolan on Morning Ireland

This doesn't sound good - 20 weeks is the end of July :eek)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/nphet-seeing-early-worrying-signs-philip-nolan-urges-people-not-to-squander-52-weeks-of-sacrifice-40187690.html

Can't comprehend what state the mental health of the country will be like a big %

That is beyond a joke and we know it will just be accepted with no challenge.

Monster249 · 12-03-2021 04:07PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm certain nphet would love nothing more than having increased ICU capacity. It has little to do with them though, and it's not a quick fix.
I think more could certainly could have been done, but even if we'd somehow quadrupled capacity, we still wouldn't be comfortable.

I feel a lot of you are ignoring the actual plan and ignoring the relaxation of restrictions that is currently taking place.
If you have kids of school going age, this is looking like a good month for you. Things are surely a lot closer to normal.

If you don't have kids, then in your perception things might not have changed much at all.

I guess we just have different standards of what to expect. Our leaders are some of the highest paid politicians in the World, from an ROI standpoint, I feel shafted.

"but even if we'd somehow quadrupled capacity, we still wouldn't be comfortable."

Our ICUs were flooded but not overrun with 200+ in ICU with Covid. We can handle a lot more than they've made us out to be able to handle. They just want them quiet which isn't realistic in a pandemic. Again, this is down to their ultra-conservative approach which isn't shared across Europe.

Their decisions can be rationalized in whatever way people see fit but we're an outlier in terms of the length of our lockdowns and the harshness and that's a fact. I'm one of the people who'll have to pay more tax because they saw fit to keep borrowing hundreds of millions per month to keep things closed unnecessarily just to "prevent the chance of maybe the ICUs filling up again"

gozunda · 12-03-2021 04:07PM

ypres5 wrote: »

so you can't formulate an argument so you resort to character assassination and assumptions instead. Sound's about right

And as you cannot provide your own observations on the topic at hand and its veracity or otherwise - you resort to attacking the poster? Okay ...

As to "assumptions" and actually engaging in the discussion - perhaps you would like to show how Michael McNamara was previously a big fan of restrictions as was claimed

Afaik and from this thread - comments on standing politicians are not anything unusual? At least the above are informed as opposed to calling politicians names.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings