Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

07-03-2021 09:23PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A year in and I really cannot believe I'm explaining this.

A year of constantly stated concern about the ability of the health service to cope, billions spent, and barely any more ICU capacity than we started out with.

At some point it must begin to ring hollow.

MrMusician18 · 07-03-2021 09:28PM

Deleted User wrote: »

A year of constantly stated concern about the ability of the health service to cope, billions spent, and barely any more ICU capacity than we started out with.

At some point it must begin to ring hollow.

It takes years to expand health service capacity in a meaningful way, never mind during a pandemic.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 09:28PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Some people have been complaining because the government message has been the same for so long, and then we get posts like the above. Each and every lockdown has been about protecting the health service from getting overwhelmed. That is it, that simple. As we saw at Christmas, it doesn't take long for this disease to get out of control, but a long time to get it back under control - hence the same messaging.

The medium term plan is to both suppress the virus and offer vaccines to the vulnerable groups so that the above goal of not overwhelming the health service happens.

A year in and I really cannot believe I'm explaining this.

Explaning what? that the government are imcompetent and a year on lockdown and another lockdown is the only answer. They haven't a clue and each every lockdown was because they couldn't control airports, contact tracing, implement antigen testing etc etc etc etc. A disaster that has rolled from one lockdown to the next to protect the hospitals as that is the only answer they have.

MrMusician18 · 07-03-2021 09:34PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

Explaning what? that the government are imcompetent and a year on lockdown and another lockdown is the only answer. They haven't a clue and each every lockdown was because they couldn't control airports, contact tracing, implement antigen testing etc etc etc etc. A disaster that has rolled from one lockdown to the next to protect the hospitals as that is the only answer they have.

Lock downs, or uncontrolled spread was the only way out of this until science managed to give us a get out of jail free card.

This would've been long over if everyone had behaved, but just looking back on this forum over the past months and you'll see that a huge proportion think that they know better and what the government was trying to impose went too far.

RGS · 07-03-2021 09:37PM

Harris put out a call to medics to return last year and for retirees to re engage. Thousands put their name forward but I believe only around 100 employed. I know of one recently retired nurse who put her name forward and was never contacted.

The staff were there to expand the services but the government and HSE were lacking in their commitment to the project.

Cartman78 · 07-03-2021 09:39PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Some people have been complaining because the government message has been the same for so long, and then we get posts like the above. Each and every lockdown has been about protecting the health service from getting overwhelmed. That is it, that simple. As we saw at Christmas, it doesn't take long for this disease to get out of control, but a long time to get it back under control - hence the same messaging.

The medium term plan is to both suppress the virus and offer vaccines to the vulnerable groups so that the above goal of not overwhelming the health service happens.

A year in and I really cannot believe I'm explaining this.

I take your points and acknowledge the logic behind them.

However, the lack of timelines, target or a clear roadmap/exit strategy is a huge problem imho.

If they said something along the lines of "once X% of the population has been vaccinated, then A, B and C happens" or "if the 14 day case average drops below X for X consecutive days then A and B can reopen".

That would be something that people can understand and work towards.

At the moment it just seems neverending and the longer it goes on, there's going to be more protests, violations etc. and while I certainly won't condone any of it I am now in a position where I can understand the growing tsunami of frustration.

The government need to show some bottle and communicate honestly and clearly or the huge sarcrifices that (most) people have made in recent weeks will be pissed up against a wall like it was at Christmas

finalfurlong · 07-03-2021 09:45PM

The Davestator wrote: »

The issue that some politicians have already decided what April will look like regardless of the actual stats of cases, hospitalizations etc.

and NPHET are not likely to ask them to relax anything because, well because they're NPHET

Yeah this is interesting as what is now emerging is the "set in stone" attitude that M Martin claimed did not exist.There is only lip service being paid to "review " before april 5th.Impervious to the steep fall in all numbers over last week and likelihood of even steeper falls by say march 22nd (2 weeks ),the drip feed is not what we will review-it is we will look at" the 3 areas of construction,5 K limit.outdoor activities"ie we might let some builders back,give ye extra 5 K to walk around like zombies,and allow ye to run and not just walk in a field.FFS.They are also saying thats it until the next "review " on may 1st.Thats nearly 8 weeks from today.Correct me if Im wrong but did varadker say icu about 50 and hospital nos in "low hundreds" before "substantial" easings.That looks like it will be in 2/3 weeks.Let them eat cake is the most apt quote to describe that attitude.We are being led by donkeys is the second most apt quote,

MrMusician18 · 07-03-2021 09:45PM

Cartman78 wrote: »

I take your points and acknowledge the logic behind them.

However, the lack of timelines, target or a clear roadmap/exit strategy is a huge problem imho.

If they said something along the lines of "once X% of the population has been vaccinated, then A, B and C happens" or "if the 14 day case average drops below X for X consecutive days then A and B can reopen".

That would be something that people can understand and work towards.

At the moment it just seems neverending and the longer it goes on, there's going to be more protests, violations etc. and while I certainly won't condone any of it I am now in a position where I can understand the growing tsunami of frustration.

The government need to show some bottle and communicate honestly and clearly or the huge sarcrifices that (most) people have made in recent weeks will be pissed up against a wall like it was at Christmas

And again the government cannot be specific with timelines because the public behaviour is well ahead of the government.

Say the government says that we need sustained cases below 200/day and we'll allow intercounty travel. You'll have people moving at 400 cases a day, justifying their behaviour as "shur it's almost there". Or worse, we have a single day under 200, or two days - the restrictions would be ignored wholesale at that point.

It is genuinely best to keep the population in the dark with at most a week's notice so we don't start to see a lot of behaviour that sets us back

Windmill100000 · 07-03-2021 09:59PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And again the government cannot be specific with timelines because the public behaviour is well ahead of the government.

Say the government says that we need sustained cases below 200/day and we'll allow intercounty travel. You'll have people moving at 400 cases a day, justifying their behaviour as "shur it's almost there". Or worse, we have a single day under 200, or two days - the restrictions would be ignored wholesale at that point.

It is genuinely best to keep the population in the dark with at most a week's notice so we don't start to see a lot of behaviour that sets us back

Agreed. And to many that makes sense.

the kelt · 07-03-2021 10:05PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And again the government cannot be specific with timelines because the public behaviour is well ahead of the government.

Say the government says that we need sustained cases below 200/day and we'll allow intercounty travel. You'll have people moving at 400 cases a day, justifying their behaviour as "shur it's almost there". Or worse, we have a single day under 200, or two days - the restrictions would be ignored wholesale at that point.

It is genuinely best to keep the population in the dark with at most a week's notice so we don't start to see a lot of behaviour that sets us back

But no decision on easing restrictions is based on just cases per day.

And inter county travel isn’t causing cases to spike at any stage, you can travel where ye want when nothings opened what difference does it make?

People in Ireland seem obsessed with travel restrictions when in reality there not a huge driver in case numbers. We aren’t seen huge surges because someone goes to a beach or forest in another county for a walk when in reality there’s not much else to do until things open up anyway.

Penfailed · 07-03-2021 10:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Just over 500 cases today.

0.01% of the population with the virus.

99.99% do not and are locked up, 4,903,500 people - and told they cannot get a haircut because of "widespread community transmission".

I'm not locked up. I drove into town and went for a nice walk in the park today. I drove back into town this evening and got a lovely Indian takeaway. I also had my haircut today. My wife did a great job.

ypres5 · 07-03-2021 10:10PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It takes years to expand health service capacity in a meaningful way, never mind during a pandemic.

Sweden were able to double their icu capacity last year

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 10:20PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Lock downs, or uncontrolled spread was the only way out of this until science managed to give us a get out of jail free card.

This would've been long over if everyone had behaved, but just looking back on this forum over the past months and you'll see that a huge proportion think that they know better and what the government was trying to impose went too far.

this would be long over if people listened ?? Did you forget about the airports? The reason we are still going through lockdown is because the government don't know what they are doing. Masks, airports, antigen testing, schools, meat factories the list is endless but you choose to believe its because people didnt listen? This was handled appallingly from the start and no rewriting of history will change that. Denmark never closed there schools, why because they using antigen testing something our shower are looking at now 6 months later. They even told us for months last year not to wear masks. This virus is seasonal and the numbers will drop naturally like last year but we will still be in lockdown like we were in May and June last year because they don't know what they are doing. As I said last week, they will mess up the vaccines and don't worry they will.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 10:34PM

finalfurlong wrote: »

Yeah this is interesting as what is now emerging is the "set in stone" attitude that M Martin claimed did not exist.There is only lip service being paid to "review " before april 5th.Impervious to the steep fall in all numbers over last week and likelihood of even steeper falls by say march 22nd (2 weeks ),the drip feed is not what we will review-it is we will look at" the 3 areas of construction,5 K limit.outdoor activities"ie we might let some builders back,give ye extra 5 K to walk around like zombies,and allow ye to run and not just walk in a field.FFS.They are also saying thats it until the next "review " on may 1st.Thats nearly 8 weeks from today.Correct me if Im wrong but did varadker say icu about 50 and hospital nos in "low hundreds" before "substantial" easings.That looks like it will be in 2/3 weeks.Let them eat cake is the most apt quote to describe that attitude.We are being led by donkeys is the second most apt quote,

The mad thing about the whole lot regarding the numbers is that AFAIK none of the vaccines stop the transmission of the virus but stop hospital admissions. So when icu is nearly zero nphet and the crowd of idiots running the show will say numbers are to high to reopen. Just watch

Natterjack from Kerry · 07-03-2021 10:42PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

The mad thing about the whole lot regarding the numbers is that AFAIK none of the vaccines stop the transmission of the virus but stop hospital admissions. So when icu is nearly zero nphet and the crowd of idiots running the show will say numbers are to high to reopen. Just watch

This will stand to reason though. Numbers in ICU will only stay close to zero precisely because of the restrictions until everyone is vaccinated. Reopening, with partial vaccination would be madness. I think we all agree with your prediction - it is no magical insight.

finalfurlong · 07-03-2021 10:51PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

The mad thing about the whole lot regarding the numbers is that AFAIK none of the vaccines stop the transmission of the virus but stop hospital admissions. So when icu is nearly zero nphet and the crowd of idiots running the show will say numbers are to high to reopen. Just watch

You can bet on that Paddy.The whole moving the goalposts is basically a version of Whack a Mole by nPHET and the 3 lads -Martin Varadker and Ryan-who seem to be auditioning for parts in Waiting for Godot.It really is ridiculous that even getting down hospital waiting lists first was also mentioned in Sunday Times 2 weeks ago as reason for extending restrictions if all other figures down.With nearly 900000 on those lists we are truly being patronised with this approach.Youd die laughing at this reason only theyd put you down as "died while laughing with Covid(probably)"

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 11:09PM

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

This will stand to reason though. Numbers in ICU will only stay close to zero precisely because of the restrictions until everyone is vaccinated. Reopening, with partial vaccination would be madness. I think we all agree with your prediction - it is no magical insight.

????? Rubbish, the numbers in icu will be practically zero when the over 70 are all vaccinated so no need for more lockdowns because that is practically everyone in icu from covid at the moment is over 70. Also According to your reckoning even when everyone is vaccinated and icu is empty we should kepp lockdown because there are still too many cases.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 11:12PM

finalfurlong wrote: »

You can bet on that Paddy.The whole moving the goalposts is basically a version of Whack a Mole by nPHET and the 3 lads -Martin Varadker and Ryan-who seem to be auditioning for parts in Waiting for Godot.It really is ridiculous that even getting down hospital waiting lists first was also mentioned in Sunday Times 2 weeks ago as reason for extending restrictions if all other figures down.With nearly 900000 on those lists we are truly being patronised with this approach.Youd die laughing at this reason only theyd put you down as "died while laughing with Covid(probably)"

That's the problem nphet will push for this to go on as long as possible. if we only had a government strong enough to take there advice and make an informed decision. I sit and wait
In vain

Russman · 07-03-2021 11:36PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

This virus is seasonal and the numbers will drop naturally like last year but.

Any proof that this is a seasonal virus ?

gozunda · 07-03-2021 11:36PM

the kelt wrote: »

But no decision on easing restrictions is based on just cases per day.

And inter county travel isn’t causing cases to spike at any stage, you can travel where ye want when nothings opened what difference does it make?

People in Ireland seem obsessed with travel restrictions when in reality there not a huge driver in case numbers. We aren’t seen huge surges because someone goes to a beach or forest in another county for a walk when in reality there’s not much else to do until things open up anyway.

The case of Australia and New Zealand would argue otherwise...

And its not a problem of someone going to a beach or someplace similar - it's all the eejits from at least half a dozen different counties that end up there with them once those restrictions are rolled back and even before we have our vaccination Schedule fully on track.

Natterjack from Kerry · 07-03-2021 11:41PM

Russman wrote: »

Any proof that this is a seasonal virus ?

I think Donald Trump said it was and that it would just, like, 'disappear'. So it must be, I guess.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 11:41PM

Russman wrote: »

Any proof that this is a seasonal virus ?

Yes just look at Ireland and every European country last summer. Numbers went through the floor so there is a 99 percent chance it is seasonal.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 11:43PM

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

I think Donald Trump said it was and that it would just, like, 'disappear'. So it must be, I guess.

You should get your trump quote in the right context, he never mentioned summer...

Natterjack from Kerry · 07-03-2021 11:44PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

Yes just look at Ireland and every European country last summer. Numbers went through the floor so there is a 99 percent chance it is seasonal.

.....or, lockdown continued until daily cases were in single digits at the end of June ?

Sharpyshoot · 07-03-2021 11:45PM

Surely restaurants and gastro bars can open for Easter. The tourist season needs to kick off.

normanoffside · 07-03-2021 11:47PM

Russman wrote: »

Any proof that this is a seasonal virus ?

If you look at a country with little restrictions and lockdown/open up stratgies, cases seem to go down in Summer and up in Winter?

Anita Blow · 07-03-2021 11:48PM

RGS wrote: »

Harris put out a call to medics to return last year and for retirees to re engage. Thousands put their name forward but I believe only around 100 employed. I know of one recently retired nurse who put her name forward and was never contacted.

The staff were there to expand the services but the government and HSE were lacking in their commitment to the project.

On the contrary, the government just cut 300 junior doctor posts. We'll come out of this pandemic with less staff and resources than we had going into it

Natterjack from Kerry · 07-03-2021 11:48PM

Sharpyshoot wrote: »

Surely restaurants and gastro bars can open for Easter. The tourist season needs to kick off.

They cannot. We will be better of without the tourist season, let alone need it.

paddyisreal · 07-03-2021 11:48PM

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

.....or, lockdown continued until daily cases were in single digits at the end of June ?

Do a bit if research, the rest of Europe was open way before us and stayed open way longer because have a guess it is seasonal and they don't have a fetiah for lockdowns

Russman · 07-03-2021 11:48PM

paddyisreal wrote: »

Yes just look at Ireland and every European country last summer. Numbers went through the floor so there is a 99 percent chance it is seasonal.

Or maybe it was the same reason there’s virtually no flu this year ? Ie restrictions.

Thoughts on Texas and and Florida last July ?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings