Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Sharpyshoot

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

They cannot. We will be better of without the tourist season, let alone need it.

You may be right.

paddyisreal

Russman wrote: »

Or maybe it was the same reason there’s virtually no flu this year ? Ie restrictions.

Thoughts on Texas and and Florida last July ?

Yes, that was there first wave and they had no restrictions masks etc . Would of been a hundred times worse if it was the winter. Do you not concur that in winter it is worse like every other coronavirus ?

Natterjack from Kerry

paddyisreal wrote: »

Do you not concur that in winter it is worse like every other coronavirus ?

Medical studies are inconclusive, so no one can concur at the moment.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201014/covid-19-doesnt-seem-seasonal-study-says

The research team investigated epidemiological data from Johns Hopkins University, as well as major public health organizations such as the WHO, CDC, European CDC and China CDC. They looked at several additional countries, including Iran, Italy, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, as well as 345 cities in China.

Based on the spatial patterns of COVID-19, the transmission doesn’t seem to be affected by temperature, humidity or human movements alone. In fact, higher temperatures may have led to an increase in transmission in 122 cities in China, Santillana said, and the coronavirus has thrived in both cold provinces and tropical locations globally.

However, the study findings don’t “negate the possibility that temperature and humidity could play a modulating role on COVID-19 transmission as they do in influenza transmission,” he added.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A year of constantly stated concern about the ability of the health service to cope, billions spent, and barely any more ICU capacity than we started out with.
At some point it must begin to ring hollow.

A significant amount of money has been spent on coping with the redeployment of existing healtcare services towards the treatment and management of covid patients and increased real-time ICU admissions.

But yes we have seen a rise in ICU capacity. Available data shows the baseline capacity in ICU increased up to 280 up from 255 in March / April 2020. Currently the surge capacity for ICU beds stands at approx 350.

It also has to be understood that ICU capacity is not just beds - but also fully trained and available clinical staff, clinical space, clinical equipment, oxygen supply and
Hospital / Hospital Group / HSE system supports.

RGS wrote: »

Harris put out a call to medics to return last year and for retirees to re engage. Thousands put their name forward but I believe only around 100 employed. I know of one recently retired nurse who put her name forward and was never contacted.

The staff were there to expand the services but the government and HSE were lacking in their commitment to the project.

Having a few relations who work in healthcare - i have been previously informed that the issue with many who applied - was that a large proportion were either not properly qualified or lacked the necessary qualifications and / or experience for the required roles. It would certainly have been possible to redeploy a percentage of these applicants following upskilling etc- however due to existing presures on the system the resources to do so were already overstretched. So no it cannot be blamed on "commitment" imo.

Russman

paddyisreal wrote: »

Yes, that was there first wave and they had no restrictions masks etc . Would of been a hundred times worse if it was the winter. Do you not concur that in winter it is worse like every other coronavirus ?

Maybe, maybe not, but it’s pure conjecture at this point.

No, I don’t concur until the the medical experts decide that it is. I’m not saying it’s not, just that it hasn’t been defined as such yet.

paddyisreal

Russman wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not, but it’s pure conjecture at this point.

No, I don’t concur until the the medical experts decide that it is. I’m not saying it’s not, just that it hasn’t been defined as such yet.

We have been told since the start that people congregating indoors is the favorite way for the virus to transmit and guess what people do when the weather is warmer they go outside so I would guess the spring, summer will naturally bring the numbers down naturally. I don't need any medical expert to confirm what is plainly obvious.

Natterjack from Kerry

paddyisreal wrote: »

We have been told since the start that people congregating indoors is the favorite way for the virus to transmit and guess what people do when the weather is warmer they go outside so I would guess the spring, summer will naturally bring the numbers down naturally. I don't need any medical expert to confirm what is plainly obvious.

Yet, medical expertise confirms that it is not plainly obvious ?

paddyisreal

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Medical studies are inconclusive, so no one can concur at the moment.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201014/covid-19-doesnt-seem-seasonal-study-says

The research team investigated epidemiological data from Johns Hopkins University, as well as major public health organizations such as the WHO, CDC, European CDC and China CDC. They looked at several additional countries, including Iran, Italy, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, as well as 345 cities in China.

Based on the spatial patterns of COVID-19, the transmission doesn’t seem to be affected by temperature, humidity or human movements alone. In fact, higher temperatures may have led to an increase in transmission in 122 cities in China, Santillana said, and the coronavirus has thrived in both cold provinces and tropical locations globally.

However, the study findings don’t “negate the possibility that temperature and humidity could play a modulating role on COVID-19 transmission as they do in influenza transmission,” he added.

You cant concur that the virus spreads easier indoors than outside? Winter-everyone indoors summer - everyone outdoors. It's actually quiet simple

Graham

normanoffside wrote: »

If you look at a country with little restrictions and lockdown/open up stratgies, cases seem to go down in Summer and up in Winter?

correlation does not imply causation.

paddyisreal

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Yet, medical expertise confirms that it is not plainly obvious ?

You are being pedantic, expert attached

https://www.newstalk.com/news/no-evidence-lockdown-can-eliminate-coronavirus-1091759

Graham

paddyisreal wrote: »

You are being pedantic, expert attached

https://www.newstalk.com/news/no-evidence-lockdown-can-eliminate-coronavirus-1091759

That's not exactly a scientific study. It's someone expressing an opinion that it might.

paddyisreal

Graham wrote: »

That's not exactly a scientific study. It's someone expressing an opinion that it might.

No its common sense from an expert, you don't needto be smacked in the face with a wet fish to be told what it is.

Graham

paddyisreal wrote: »

No its common sense from an expert, you don't needto be smacked in the face with a wet fish to be told what it is.

It does sound like there's a reasonable chance there is some seasonality, to what extent nobody knows certainly not yet based on less than a years numbers.

It's perhaps not unexpected that a respiratory virus has lower spread when many activities take place outside and buildings are well ventilated. That in itself might be reason to start and look at reducing restrictions on outdoor activities.

normanoffside

Graham wrote: »

correlation does not imply causation.

I get that but then how do you explain Sweden following more or less the same trajectory as the rest of Europe despite lockdowns not being in the equation?
Edit: Belarus has more or less and identical graph.

Graham

normanoffside wrote: »

I get that but then how do you explain Sweden following more or less the same trajectory as the rest of Europe despite lockdowns not being in the equation?

That's a reasonable question, let me rephrase it to see the other viewpoint.

Why has Sweden performed significantly worse than its geographical neighbours?

normanoffside

Graham wrote: »

That's a reasonable question, let me rephrase it to see the other viewpoint.

Why has Sweden performed significantly worse than its geographical neighbours?

That’s got nothing to do with the question I asked.

Graham

normanoffside wrote: »

That’s got nothing to do with the question I asked.

It has though. Sweden has much more in common with the neighbouring countries than it does to the rest of Europe and the fact is it has performed significantly worse than all of them.

Why wouldn't you want to compare Sweden to similar neighbouring countries when deciding whether the Swedish approach was a reasonable one to emulate?

You certainly can't say it's down to seasonality given the proximity of the neighbours.

fin12

Intermediate lockdowns the new normal, just read that bullsh*t. So we are going to have years of these stupid f*cking rolling lockdowns,,,

Graham

fin12 wrote: »

Intermediate lockdowns the new normal, just read that bullsh*t. So we are going to have years of these stupid f*cking rolling lockdowns,,,

Context / source might be useful.

fin12

At the end of the day we are all on a clock, anyone of us could drop dead tomorrow, why the f*ck do we have to continue living like this?

normanoffside

Graham wrote: »

It has though. Sweden has much more in common with the neighbouring countries than it does to the rest of Europe and the fact is it has performed significantly worse than all of them.

Why wouldn't you want to compare Sweden to similar neighbouring countries when deciding whether the Swedish approach was a reasonable one to emulate?

You certainly can't say it's down to seasonality given the proximity of the neighbours.

I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about seasonality. I included Belarus after you replied to me.
By the way Sweden’s neighbours also saw winter infection spikes as well.

Klonker

It seems to me there is a seasonality to the virus but it's too hard to tell for sure in one year. We should be able see the trends in figures over the next 2 months anyway and have a better idea then.

I think our plan will be all about how the UK does. I think this is why the government won't give us any type of exit strategy. By the time they have to make any hard decisions come early May(I think we know very limited easing until this date, whether we agree with it or not) , the UK should be far into their reopening. We'll know what we'll be letting ourselves in for. If it's going great for the UK we can follow suit having a good gauge of how things will go. If it's not going great we'll be even more cautious.

Say for example the UK have 80% of adults vaccinated with one dose by end of May and things are looking very good there by all metrics and little restrictions, then if we get to similar place by end of June, we as a public won't put up with harsher restrictions 'just incase'.

Graham

normanoffside wrote: »

I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about seasonality. I included Belarus after you replied to me.
By the way Sweden’s neighbours also saw winter infection spikes as well.

We haven't had even a full year yet. This time last year Sweden had practically zero cases. That doesn't mean we can conclude cases are always higher in the second March of a pandemic.

I've already said it makes sense for there to be a spike in respiratory virus transmission when people spend a larger amount of their time indoors without windows open (i.e. winter) so there is bound to be some seasonality.

How much seasonality and at what level is just guesswork at this stage.

acequion

Klonker wrote: »

Say for example the UK have 80% of adults vaccinated with one dose by end of May and things are looking very good there by all metrics and little restrictions, then if we get to similar place by end of June, we as a public won't put up with harsher restrictions 'just incase'.

And what do you think, "we as a public" will do?

I'm not having a go at you but anyone expecting "we as a Public" to claim back our rights, which is exactly what "we as a public" should be doing, will be waiting forever. If we were to be locked up for another year the Irish would roll over and take it. Just look at where we're at:

Indefinite lockdowns have become normalised.
Govt diktats, along with punitive action if disobeyed, applauded by "we the public", have become normalised.
NPHET, a bunch of heretofore virtually unknown doctors calling the shots, have become normalised, all now household names. But who voted for them?
A propaganda style media with almost zero tolerance for contrarian views and zero open debate has become normalised.
Fear and negativity, disguised as "caution and concern" have become normalised.
Scapegoating certain groups and inciting resentment and hostility has become normalised.
A dysfunctional political landscape characterised by inept, ineffective leaders and an opposition who are extreme nationalist and populist at best, former terrorist at worst, have become normalised.
A whole way of life characterised by control and repression of liberties, unthinkable just over a year ago, has now become completely normalised.

We as a public have become apathetic and defeated so no, we as a public will continue to do no more than grumble and growl. It really is very worrying.

Graham

acequion wrote: »

Govt diktats, along with punitive action if disobeyed

Punitive action

acequion

Graham wrote: »

Punitive action

2k fines for leaving the country for non essential travel for example, along with the threat of prison if not paid. That's not punitive??

Klonker

acequion wrote: »

And what do you think, "we as a public" will do?

I'm not having a go at you but anyone expecting "we as a Public" to claim back our rights, which is exactly what "we as a public" should be doing, will be waiting forever. If we were to be locked up for another year the Irish would roll over and take it. Just look at where we're at:

Indefinite lockdowns have become normalised.
Govt diktats, along with punitive action if disobeyed, applauded by "we the public", have become normalised.
NPHET, a bunch of heretofore virtually unknown doctors calling the shots, have become normalised, all now household names. But who voted for them?
A propaganda style media with almost zero tolerance for contrarian views and zero open debate has become normalised.
Fear and negativity, disguised as "caution and concern" have become normalised.
Scapegoating certain groups and inciting resentment and hostility has become normalised.
A dysfunctional political landscape characterised by inept, ineffective leaders and an opposition who are extreme nationalist and populist at best, former terrorist at worst, have become normalised.
A whole way of life characterised by control and repression of liberties, unthinkable just over a year ago, has now become completely normalised.

We as a public have become apathetic and defeated so no, we as a public will continue to do no more than grumble and growl. It really is very worrying.

We'll see I guess. I think if the UK get back to normal our public will be calling for the same. Public opinion is very important, politics is a popularity context at the end of the day. I'm hopeful we'll have shops opened May and restaurants indoor dining in June as long as vaccines received and administered as currently planned. I think the government's current plan would be slower than this if you asked them now in privacy but I think things will improve quicker than they expect it to. As I said, the UK reopening will be our canary in the coal mine.

acequion

Klonker wrote: »

We'll see I guess. I think if the UK get back to normal our public will be calling for the same. Public opinion is very important, politics is a popularity context at the end of the day. I'm hopeful we'll have shops opened May and restaurants indoor dining in June as long as vaccines received and administered as currently planned. I think the government's current plan would be slower than this if you asked them now in privacy but I think things will improve quicker than they expect it to. As I said, the UK reopening will be our canary in the coal mine.

Public opinion has largely supported the measures because bizarrely lockdown has suited a lot of people and the Govt have bought off a lot of people too. I would love to see more sensible public opinion gaining momentum but I'll believe it when I see it. After what I've seen from the public this past year I'm not optimistic.

The tone of your post is upbeat which is welcoming but May and June are too far away imo. We should be looking to reopen on a gradual and controlled basis a lot sooner, we really should be starting this side of Easter.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1

Interesting study.

"In conclusion, using current data, ~ 98% of the comparisons using 87 different regions of the world we found no evidence that the number of deaths/million is reduced by staying at home."

Hector Savage

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1

Interesting study.

"In conclusion, using current data, ~ 98% of the comparisons using 87 different regions of the world we found no evidence that the number of deaths/million is reduced by staying at home."

I am shocked! Shocked!!