COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

04-03-2021 07:39AM

lbj666 wrote: »

Stop laughing down the back.

On serious note, that certainly vindicates the 1 dose strategy and may not have been apparent in the trial data, due to the haste to get approval. Why does that graph start at 65% on day zero though.

The ballsack confidence interval hangs down over zero

Hector Savage · 04-03-2021 09:42AM

wadacrack wrote: »

Impressive

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1367179841217306626

Impressive ? entering phase 1 trials ? so essentially will take a year + to be approved.

The variants will be endless, so essentially this is life now, infinite restrictions as new vaccines for the variants are WIP....

As they are approved, next batch of variants are ready - more lockdown.

is_that_so · 04-03-2021 09:46AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Impressive ? entering phase 1 trials ? so essentially will take a year + to be approved.

The variants will be endless, so essentially this is life now, infinite restrictions as new vaccines for the variants are WIP....

As they are approved, next batch of variants are ready - more lockdown.

Actually what we should see is a much better ability to control outbreaks quickly once we have vaccinated enough people. That will give variants limited opportunity to spread but we need to accept that there will probably still be some cases.

ixoy · 04-03-2021 09:55AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Impressive ? entering phase 1 trials ? so essentially will take a year + to be approved.

No. Trials will be smaller this time around, so it won't take as long as it's not a new vaccine.

funnydoggy · 04-03-2021 10:06AM

Hardyn wrote: »

Some hard data from J&J....

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/status/1367159066531880961?s=19

You don't semen-y vaccines with such efficacy

D.Q · 04-03-2021 10:24AM

funnydoggy wrote: »

You don't semen-y vaccines with such efficacy

This comment gave me covid-20

Cork2021 · 04-03-2021 10:28AM

Rolling review starting on Sputnik 5

https://twitter.com/ema_news/status/1367401232885837827?s=21

funnydoggy · 04-03-2021 10:29AM

D.Q wrote: »

This comment gave me covid-20

It'll be hard to make a vaccine for that but one will arrive all of a sudden.

Probes · 04-03-2021 10:31AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Impressive ? entering phase 1 trials ? so essentially will take a year + to be approved.

The variants will be endless, so essentially this is life now, infinite restrictions as new vaccines for the variants are WIP....

As they are approved, next batch of variants are ready - more lockdown.

I don't think it does take that long. They probably need safety data more than anything. The flu vaccines are done in less than a year.

seamus · 04-03-2021 10:42AM

Probes wrote: »

I don't think it does take that long. They probably need safety data more than anything. The flu vaccines are done in less than a year.

Efficacy data I think is what they're mainly going for.

They can do considerably smaller (or sometimes skip) phase 2 & 3 trials provided there's no material change to the ingredients. In these cases you're really making sure that the new vaccine is more effective than the old one. They always monitor for side-effects, but they can assume they're at least as safe as the previous generation because nothing measurable has changed.

Widescreen · 04-03-2021 10:43AM

Sorry if mentioned before but is anyone else worried that this wave will peter out in the next 5-6 weeks and then nowhere near enough vaccines will have been administered and we will be goosed with another wave then?

i think one day last week only 35, yes 35!!! second doses were administered.

Don't think I could handle another cycle of watching the cases going up again and watching the same updates from the same old boring( clever I know) people .

It's obvious now why they didn't appoint a minister for vaccines here- there should be political accountability for this lethargic roll out, but they are too clever for that.

04-03-2021 10:46AM

Widescreen wrote: »

Sorry if mentioned before but is anyone else worried that this wave will peter out in the next 5-6 weeks and then nowhere near enough vaccines will have been administered and we will be goosed with another wave then?

i think one day last week only 35, yes 35!!! second doses were administered.

Don't think I could handle another cycle of watching the cases going up again and watching the same updates from the same old boring( clever I know) people .

It's obvious now why they didn't appoint a minister for vaccines here- there should be political accountability for this lethargic roll out, but they are too clever for that.

Do you think we will stop vaccinating when cases drop?

Also - its global supply that's lethargic as manufacturers have ramped production in Q1. Only a few countries have secured large supplies. If all countries had been as on the ball as UK and Israel, supply issues would exist everywhere

hmmm · 04-03-2021 10:47AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Impressive ? entering phase 1 trials ? so essentially will take a year + to be approved.

The variants will be endless, so essentially this is life now, infinite restrictions as new vaccines for the variants are WIP....

As they are approved, next batch of variants are ready - more lockdown.

The boosters will be available in the Autumn, the regulators will not require full phase 3 trials for changes to existing vaccines.

I've read a good bit of informed speculation that the virus is constrained in the number of mutations it can have without becoming unstable, and because we're seeing the same mutations appear independently in different parts of the world it suggests that a booster targeting those mutations would be very effective (on top of the existing vaccines).

Van.Bosch · 04-03-2021 10:48AM

6,692 doses on Monday.

Not great - is this still impacted by AZ shortfall?

iamwhoiam · 04-03-2021 10:50AM

Widescreen wrote: »

Sorry if mentioned before but is anyone else worried that this wave will peter out in the next 5-6 weeks and then nowhere near enough vaccines will have been administered and we will be goosed with another wave then?

i think one day last week only 35, yes 35!!! second doses were administered.

Don't think I could handle another cycle of watching the cases going up again and watching the same updates from the same old boring( clever I know) people .

It's obvious now why they didn't appoint a minister for vaccines here- there should be political accountability for this lethargic roll out, but they are too clever for that.

I would much prefer to see experts in virology and Immunologists and an expert panel guiding the vaccine rollout instead of a politician who knows nothing about anything . Possibly his/ her way to being a Minister is because his/ her daddy was .
Take our Minister for Education as an example , as useless as a chocolate tea pot

seamus · 04-03-2021 10:53AM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

6,692 doses on Monday.

Not great - is this still impacted by AZ shortfall?

It's twice as many as the previous Monday

Mondays are always lower because of the delivery cycle.

timsey tiger · 04-03-2021 10:59AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think we will stop vaccinating when cases drop?

Also - its global supply that's lethargic as manufacturers have ramped production in Q1. Only a few countries have secured large supplies. If all countries had been as on the ball as UK and Israel, supply issues would exist everywhere

and the cost would be stratospheric.

Hmmzis · 04-03-2021 11:00AM

seamus wrote: »

Efficacy data I think is what they're mainly going for.

They can do considerably smaller (or sometimes skip) phase 2 & 3 trials provided there's no material change to the ingredients. In these cases you're really making sure that the new vaccine is more effective than the old one. They always monitor for side-effects, but they can assume they're at least as safe as the previous generation because nothing measurable has changed.

If I'm understanding it right, it's the other way around. They're looking at immunogenicity not in the field efficacy as there is a clear relationship between immunogenicity (nAB titers and T cell counts) and protection. What they're looking for in these booster shots and influenza shots is safety, i.e. no unexpected side effects. That effectively only requires an expanded phase 1/2 trial with a 2 month observation period after the last dose.

DylanJM · 04-03-2021 11:01AM

Bit of a shame to see the more pessimistic posters making their way into this thread. For me this is the most enjoyable thread for staying up to date because most of the time the news posted is backed up by actual scientific data there's minimal scaremongering.

Hmmzis · 04-03-2021 11:09AM

Got some news from my local GP that they're done and dusted (1st dose I'm assuming) with their 85+ category, starting 80+ next week.

is_that_so · 04-03-2021 11:09AM

DylanJM wrote: »

Bit of a shame to see the more pessimistic posters making there way into this thread. For me this is the most enjoyable thread for staying up to date because most of the time the news posted is backed up by actual scientific data there's minimal scaremongering.

TBH people have had questions all the way through this and links and information on this thread have been genuinely hard to make sense of. Some positions may seem irrational to you or me but however well some posters understand this we are all grasping a little at the significance of things and what it means to our own worldview.

is_that_so · 04-03-2021 11:10AM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Got some news from my local GP that they're done and dusted (1st dose I'm assuming) with their 85+ category, starting 80+ next week.

Good news but not the kind of news some people like to hear!

dominatinMC · 04-03-2021 11:16AM

DylanJM wrote: »

Bit of a shame to see the more pessimistic posters making there way into this thread. For me this is the most enjoyable thread for staying up to date because most of the time the news posted is backed up by actual scientific data there's minimal scaremongering.

Exactly. Why bother indulging these posters. Any post with a line "this is life forever now" doesn't deserve a reply in my opinion. How anyone can actually believe that is beyond me, but anyway.
And lest we forget, amongst all the continued talk of variants and boosters, the current vaccines still work. Bottom line is they reduce hospitalisations and prevent death. People are obsessing over efficacy!

funnydoggy · 04-03-2021 11:18AM

Billionth update: Granda got his first dose at 10am

had his clothes ironed and ready for days

Micky 32 · 04-03-2021 11:20AM

https://twitter.com/hugogye/status/1367378647380811777?s=21

iamwhoiam · 04-03-2021 11:21AM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Billionth update: Granda got his first dose at 10am had his clothes ironed and ready for days

Thats wonderful to hear . And his clothes are ready and ironed is just so lovely

GLaDOS · 04-03-2021 11:23AM

Hope we get some positive updates regarding supply this week. All the vaccine news has me very optimistic but disappointing to miss the target last week.

pc7 · 04-03-2021 11:25AM

GLaDOS wrote: »

Hope we get some positive updates regarding supply this week. All the vaccine news has me very optimistic but disappointing to miss the target last week.

Also listening to Claire Byrne now and GP's struggling to get syringes for the vaccines and that

, just worries me that its the HSE having had past dealings with them.

afatbollix · 04-03-2021 11:30AM

I've been trying for days to find a graph that was released in the UK in January to show how quickly deaths could come down, They said by mid-March it would be 10% of the peak of the 3rd wave or something to that effect.

Yesterday's deaths in the UK were 315 with 172 of them being deaths that were missing in Scotland's numbers from the past year.
315-172=143

It looks like that graph was correct as on Breakfast news this morning the news is deaths could be back to normal by Easter. This is really showing that after 1 jab you get a huge amount of protection and the results take months not years to show how quickly we can get on with our lives.

stefanovich · 04-03-2021 11:35AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hugogye/status/1367378647380811777?s=21

I don't understand if this is being presented as good or bad news. Is this normal or are they taking a calculated risk?

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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