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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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  • #4712
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    awec wrote:
    On the one hand, you are telling us that young people are working in the city paying extortionate rents and they'll be itching to leave. Then on the other hand, young people have long commutes, so I guess they've already left in this version of the story?


    More than half the people working in Dublin live outside Dublin

    Both stories can be true

    Stop nit picking


  • #4713
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    i look forward to moving to coliemore road so :)


    We're always very welcoming of new neighbours :)


  • #4714
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Villa05 wrote: »
    More than half the people working in Dublin live outside Dublin

    Both stories can be true

    Stop nit picking

    It's not nitpicking. It is frustrating when the "facts" keep changing to support whatever narrative is the current flavour of the month.


  • #4715
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    DataDude wrote:
    Based on the video it hasn't been touched for a long long time. €1m+ capital value, 6% expected return on risk assets. €60k of value every year being ignored. Have to agree with McWilliams - leaving a house (like this one anyway) derelict is a sign of too much wealth, not too little!


    The house looks Irish, while the sea in the photo looks Greek


  • #4716
    Yurt2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.


    Those figures of rent as a percentage of Dublin median wage come directly from CSO data sets. You're turning the gun on yourself old Hubertj.


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  • #4717
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,956 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    We're always very welcoming of new neighbours :)

    if you lived there you would know thats not really true :D

    if there is one thing that people from dalkey dont like its blow ins :rolleyes: and people who refer to dalkey as a village


  • #4718
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    According to the Irish Times: "Cushman & Wakefield to handle sale of €380m stake in Facebook's Dublin 4 HQ"

    A few interesting details on the current lease agreement: "The consortium’s holding is fully-let to Facebook for a further nine years and forms part of the wider 79,290sq m (853,475sq ft) campus which is in the process of being delivered on the former AIB Bank Centre site."

    "The highest-profile element of the campus will face on to Merrion Road and is being developed by Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group Real Estate (RGRE). Fibonacci Square, as it will be known, is set to comprise 34,838sq m (375,000sq ft) and has been fully-let to Facebook on a 25-year lease commencing in 2022."

    Will be interesting to see the details of the lease breaks (if any) included in the part of the site with the 25 year lease agreement.

    link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/cushman-wakefield-to-handle-sale-of-380m-stake-in-facebook-s-dublin-4-hq-1.4499311


  • #4719
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Actually I think the Hybrid model will be brought in for teachers in the very near future.

    Given that all the online homework etc. can be analysed in real time and they can then see what students need extra help etc., the teachers will be primarily available in class two days a week to cater for the e.g. 30% of students who are having difficulties IMO

    Everyone benefits.

    The extra empty classrooms can then be used as cheap childcare space for other types of workers who can't WFH etc.

    You obviously have no kids going through this it has been a disaster kids been thought through zoom and seesaw it gives parents no time or space at all. Kids need structure and mixing with other kids in their peer group. Doing this from home has been nothing short of a nightmare for me and my wife who are also trying to work at the same time..It is almost impossible to do and any other parent will tell you they would prefer their kid to go to school.


  • #4720
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    You obviously have no kids going through this it has been a disaster kids been thought through zoom and seesaw it gives parents no time or space at all. Kids need structure and mixing with other kids in their peer group. Doing this from home has been nothing short of a nightmare for me and my wife who are also trying to work at the same time..It is almost impossible to do and any other parent will tell you they would prefer their kid to go to school.

    You don’t think children would benefit from fewer, smaller class sizes which concentrate on the subject matters they are having difficulties in getting their heads around?


  • #4721
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Then call teachers what you really believe they are. Free childcare.


    Hardy free if your paying tax :)


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  • #4722
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not at all :)

    Up to 20 years ago, office work was much better. You could at least go for a few pints after work with work colleagues most days and then head home.

    Then it all changed. There is little to no after work social life for most of the younger workers in an office in the city anymore. Most have to commute long distances and there are many other activities they would much rather engage in after work (e.g. internet stuff, local sports club etc.) than socialising in the pub with work colleagues after work who may bring up a drunken comment to HR the next day.

    The vast majority of younger workers would be better off staying in and developing relationships in their local area than spending ten hours a day between working and commuting to a city centre office when there is no real requirement for them to be there anymore.

    Just as a social experiment for yourself Props. When everything reopens give say 2/3 months after the restrictions are lifted and take a week off and position yourself in say Harcourt street one of the hotels their and Monday to Sunday go out in the evening say around 8pm and go to D2, then Diceys and at 3:30am try and get yourself into Copper Face Jacks then come back to me and tell me no one in Dublin city center is socializing. Your opinion is just that you need to stop thinking your opinion is fact and actually go out and look at the evidence that is there in front of you


  • #4723
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    You don’t think children would benefit from fewer, smaller class sizes which concentrate on the subject matters they are having difficulties in getting their heads around?

    They would, the word that needs to be bolded for me to agree with you is CLASS as in they are in one. Honestly I think I have aged 20 years trying to get my 11 year old to do his seesaw tasks , there is no one to ask a question if my wife and I are on calls with work so what should take 20 minutes in the class takes 2 hours through him being lackadaisical and when he hits a problem he cant solve he simply stops . Then there are the distractions at home, games, TV, going out side to the garden to kick a ball, etc..Its been a nightmare I feel like he has learned nothing in the last 2 years. Schooling from home over zoom IMO does not work.


  • #4724
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    please take the discussion of class sizes to the appropriate forum.

    Do not reply to this post.


  • #4725
    decreds
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 144 ✭✭decreds


    Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

    I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

    A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).


  • #4726
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    decreds wrote: »
    Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

    I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

    A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

    Well they are still a good 20% off what they were back at the peak of 07/08 so it could go higher if we go by historical data. But I think your right with the stagflation I cant see much growth in the next 5 years or so.


  • #4727
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


      decreds wrote: »
      Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

      I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

      A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

      There is definitely asset inflation but despite all the savings and the increase in the M2 Money supply I don't think we will see inflation in the CPI in the next year. The increase in money supply is due to people saving because they are concerned about there future circumstances and this happens during every recession. I might be wrong on inflation but think that there are to many deflation pressures for us to see inflation in the CPI.

      I also would not assume that if we do see inflation that it will equate to higher house prices as the inflation will need to be dealt with via rate increases which will hurt people that are not on a fixed rate.


    • #4728
      PropQueries
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


      decreds wrote: »
      Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

      I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

      A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

      How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

      We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

      We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

      Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

      If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

      If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO


    • #4729
      Timing belt
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


      PropQueries wrote: »
      How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

      We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

      We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

      Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

      If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

      If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

      The impact of inflation on wages in other developed countries also need to be considered..


    • #4730
      fliball123
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


      PropQueries wrote: »
      How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

      We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

      We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

      Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

      If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

      If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

      Props rule of thumb for your posts now is anything on the line proceeding IMO is usually nonsense you have been given links to posts about MNCs increasing their work numbers here as well as one that Ireland will be the biggest winners of Brexit (its a couple of pages back)..Your comments are nothing more than scaremongering your like a kid who wants a property price drop and wants one now even if it means the country goes to hell in a handbag just to prove you right..relax with your silliness.


    • #4731
      cnocbui
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


      This thread has become like the Sweden avoiding lockdown one. Same obsessive personalities at play.


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    • #4732
      Danzy
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


      awec wrote: »
      Apparently there was some huge event in the UK the past few years which is going to have massive economic and social consequences going forward for them, did you hear anything about that?

      Anyway, there is no point comparing the UK to us, though I'm sure you're aware of this. Their payout scheme was completely different, they were paying out 80% of people's wages up to a limit that was twice as high as anyone on our top rate of PUP (we were paying out less than minimum wage).

      The UK also has a larger Service sector.


    • #4733
      TheSheriff
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


      PropQueries wrote: »
      How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

      We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

      We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

      Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

      If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

      If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

      Could we maybe put to bed the theory that everything under the sun is going to cause the MNCs to leave.

      They are actively investing in IE.

      This is a conspiracy theory. Nothing more.


    • #4734
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


      Banks leaving/closing branches.Third bank anounced changes.
      It does not look that economy will recover and there will be bussiness as usual.
      The banks representatives could say what they want but things does not look good.
      Very bad signs.


    • #4735
      cnocbui
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


      I believe the government looked into rent controls but desisted on worries it would be unconstitutional, which is silly, because the constitution doesn't actually guarantee property rights.

      http://www.supremecourt.ie/supremecourt/sclibrary3.nsf/(WebFiles)/7FC625DAD10A956C802575F3002D6B7E/$FILE/Housing_%5B1983%5D%20IR%20181.htm

      I don't understand that ruling, because the constitution specifically states that property rights can be extinguished if it's for the greater good. Some senior judge/s must have been one of those affected so got it fixed.


    • #4736
      Graham
      Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


      Mod Note

      discussion of the Berlin rental market moved here


    • #4737
      thefridge2006
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


      Exchequer deficit swells to €14bn as lockdown hits tax take

      https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/exchequer-deficit-swells-to-14bn-as-lockdown-hits-tax-take-1.4499249

      What happened the money they stuck in the piggy bank in a "worse case scenario super fund" to deal with the twin-threat posed by Covid-19 and Brexit

      The truth is, they haven't a scoobies about what's going to happen and things are looking a lot worse than they first thought.

      God only knows what's coming down the line. I feel sorry for people who are buying houses in the middle of all this at record prices. I just can't see how it makes sense but that's just me


    • #4738
      thefridge2006
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


      Firms face ‘very tough conversations’, warns Mairead McGuinness

      https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/firms-face-very-tough-conversations-warns-mairead-mcguinness-1.4499337

      Bleak to say the least....

      “There is a risk the crisis could leave very deep scars in the economic and social fabric of Europe: bankruptcies, job losses, and young people again being hit, as they were in the last crisis. So we could see an increase in long-term unemployment and worsening inequality"

      “The truth is there will have to be very tough conversations in workplaces and boardrooms, and those conversations need to start yesterday.”

      “People are being supported to hold on to their work and businesses are being given supports to tide them through this. For some sectors, the impact is very deep.”


    • #4739
      HansKroenke
      Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


      thefridge2006 wrote: »
      Firms face ‘very tough conversations’, warns Mairead McGuinness

      https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/firms-face-very-tough-conversations-warns-mairead-mcguinness-1.4499337

      Bleak to say the least....

      “There is a risk the crisis could leave very deep scars in the economic and social fabric of Europe: bankruptcies, job losses, and young people again being hit, as they were in the last crisis. So we could see an increase in long-term unemployment and worsening inequality"

      “The truth is there will have to be very tough conversations in workplaces and boardrooms, and those conversations need to start yesterday.”

      “People are being supported to hold on to their work and businesses are being given supports to tide them through this. For some sectors, the impact is very deep.”

      Since property prices and rents don't seem to have fallen by much, people should rightly be expecting salary freezes or increases, particularly with inflation expected to increase. It is hard to see a good outcome if jobs are being cut or salaries decreased when the cost of living is not falling. But at the same time, individuals should be pushing as much cash as they can to their own rainy day fund now while they can, reducing debt and not taking on any new debt at the same time.


    • #4740
      combat14
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


      looks like it is time to cut the dole, HAP payments, COVID payments and business supports the country simply afford all these payments at current rates and borrowing any more

      serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt


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    • #4741
      Wanderer78
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,156 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


      combat14 wrote:
      serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt

      Seriously, fiscal conservatives need to move on from this one, in order to grow our way out of this crisis, we must also expand our money supply to do so, either we expand that via public borrowing or private borrowing, as that's how money supply expansion is done. We have become over reliant on the private sector money supply, via credit creation, and under reliant on the public sector, via bond markets, such an approach is highly unstable, and tends to inflate asset markets such as property.


    This discussion has been closed.
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