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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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  • #4682
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    I'm sorry PropQueries but some of this stuff is genuinely verging into outright falsehoods.

    On the one hand, you are telling us that young people are working in the city paying extortionate rents and they'll be itching to leave. Then on the other hand, young people have long commutes, so I guess they've already left in this version of the story?

    Which one is it?


    People in their early 20s generally decide to live nearer their work if they're from outside Dublin. Then once they get used to the city, they move further and further away.


  • #4683
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    AdamD wrote: »
    I think its abundantly clear you do not speak to people in this demographic


    What exactly do people in their 30's working in an office in the city centre do with their work colleagues after work each and every day Monday to Friday?


  • #4684
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I agree. There are a few houses around ballsbridge which are the same. In 2015 someone bought a derelict house on St Mary’s Road for €550k. All they have done since then is board it up. The challenge with Georgian and Victorian houses is the cost of renovation if they are listed. You are supposed to use period materials such as lime plaster etc. If you can’t afford to restore it then don’t buy it. If you don’t do anything with it then the vacant property tax should be used to incentivise to sell etc.


    If they purchased it in 2015 and it's still boarded up, it's most likely a vulture fund (or similar) purchase as part of a bigger portfolio of properties IMO

    A regular cash investor most likely wouldn't invest €500,000 of their own money and then leave the property boarded up and empty for the next 6 years IMO


  • #4685
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    PropQueries wrote: »
    What exactly do people in their 30's working in an office in the city centre do with their work colleagues after work each and every day Monday to Friday?

    Younger workers in offices - would be 20s.

    And the answer? Pints, and it doesn't need to be each and every day. These people aren't commuting long distances, they're living in houseshares close to the city.

    I actually know people who moved to the country during lockdown and have already moved back up to Dublin for more of a social life, and others planning to in the coming months, despite work not even requiring them to be back.


  • #4686
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    AdamD wrote: »
    Younger workers in offices - would be 20s.

    And the answer? Pints, and it doesn't need to be each and every day. These people aren't commuting long distances, they're living in houseshares close to the city.

    I actually know people who moved to the country during lockdown and have already moved back up to Dublin for more of a social life, and others planning to in the coming months, despite work not even requiring them to be back.


    Of course. But they're the next FTB. Will they be spending €600k on a house near the city or €250k back in their home town when the time comes to settle down and start a family? Especially now that they may have that very real option.

    You take the FTB out of the equation and the ponzi scheme collapses IMO


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  • #4687
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,925 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    DataDude wrote: »
    I know vacant/derelict property taxes are fairly contentious on here, but to me letting something this wonderful, in such an amazing location fall to pieces constitutes something bordering on cultural vandalism!
    I think you will enjoy Who'd live in a house like this :D


  • #4688
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Of course. But they're the next FTB. Will they be spending €600k on a house near the city or €250k back in their home town when the time comes to settle down and start a family? Especially now that they may have that very real option.

    You take the FTB out of the equation and the ponzi scheme collapses IMO

    If they can afford it, and some can.... Yes, they will.


  • #4689
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    If they can afford it, and some can.... Yes, they will.


    Maybe. But we're then reliant on two things remaining constant indefinitely i.e. that the new OECD global tax rules will have no impact on future FDI into Ireland and that the state can keep borrowing to keep paying the relatively high salaries of our exiting public servants.

    They're primarily the only two groups who can get a mortgage to pay c. €500k for a home near the city.

    Having said that, the IDA states that the average salary in their client companies is c. €66,000 so the whole housing market within the city is probably more dependent upon the state being able to borrow indefinitely to continue paying public sector workers their current salaries IMO

    But then again, both Cairn Homes and Glenveagh's average selling price last year was c. €350k and c. €311k respectively.


  • #4690
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,955 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Maybe. But we're then reliant on two things remaining constant indefinitely i.e. that the new OECD global tax rules will have no impact on future FDI into Ireland and that the state can keep borrowing to keep paying the relatively high salaries of our exiting public servants.

    They're primarily the only two groups who can get a mortgage to pay c. €500k for a home near the city.

    Having said that, the IDA states that the average salary in their client companies is c. €66,000 so the whole housing market within the city is probably more dependent upon the state being able to borrow indefinitely to continue paying public sector workers their current salaries IMO

    But then again, both Cairn Homes and Glenveagh's average selling price last year was c. €350k and c. €311k respectively.

    What do you think public sector workers are getting paid that’s holding the housing market up? And which ones are they ?

    I presume cairn and glenveagh are selling houses all around the country so what’s the relevance of their average selling price in the context of your post ?


  • #4691
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Hubertj wrote: »
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-most-popular-city-for-brexit-relocations-by-financial-firms-1.4498397

    Last year some of the experts/spoofers on this thread said all these companies and jobs went elsewhere. Clearly these companies weren’t consulting boards before making such decisions.

    This is only the beginning. From what I can see, a lot of firms didn't quite grasp what Brexit meant and are only now looking at the consequences. Our benefit for sure in Ireland as the UK is going to suffer from Brexit. It's a bit of a smoke and mirrors trick at the moment to use covid as a way of disguising the fallout from Brexit but once covid subsides, Brexit will be allowed to run its course. I have certainly noticed in my area, a few more jobs listed in the last few weeks with companies which are looking to bolster physical presence in the EU.
    PommieBast wrote: »
    I think you will enjoy Who'd live in a house like this :D

    Haha wow what a thread.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/duplex-eyre-square-centre-co-galway/1355326

    One bathroom? Not a problem!
    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’ll say it again but with the Netherlands making changes that prohibit tourists going to coffee shops and Amsterdam moving the red light district, Ireland should step in. Benefits would be increased tourism to suppport economic recovery - great for hotels and the devil that is Airbnb. On top of that it will generate tax revenue. It would also be good from a property perspective - increased uptake of commercial and industrial premises, retail as well as residential..

    Other ideas could be to sell a county. Longford maybe?

    Is that you David McWilliams? :D

    I can see the IT headline on Saturday; "Red Longford District; Amsterdam by the Shannon".


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  • #4692
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Cyrus wrote: »
    absolutely,

    thats some renovation job required :eek:

    I've got worse. :cool:


  • #4693
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Maybe. But we're then reliant on two things remaining constant indefinitely i.e. that the new OECD global tax rules will have no impact on future FDI into Ireland and that the state can keep borrowing to keep paying the relatively high salaries of our exiting public servants.

    They're primarily the only two groups who can get a mortgage to pay c. €500k for a home near the city.

    Having said that, the IDA states that the average salary in their client companies is c. €66,000 so the whole housing market within the city is probably more dependent upon the state being able to borrow indefinitely to continue paying public sector workers their current salaries IMO

    But then again, both Cairn Homes and Glenveagh's average selling price last year was c. €350k and c. €311k respectively.

    Not maybe, it's yes.

    We are an example of one such couple.

    No matter how many times you churn out these statistics that 'cairn homes average selling price is 350k" it doesn't change the fact that houses in the area we like are 600k and we can afford to pay this. These houses are still selling, you make it out like they are not.

    These posts are gas lighting at there finest, keep hammering home the same statistic in the hopes it will stick.

    We can buy a house back where we are from for 150k, we could buy it in cash. But no, we want to mortgage up and buy one for 600k, and guess why? In contrast to what you repeatedly post, not everyone is trying to escape Dublin, the main economic centre of the country.

    These posts are filled with the same suppositions which have been consistently argued against, and evidence presented against them.

    I hope you get that house in Dartry you are after at a rock bottom price (or was is over on property pin you posted this?).


  • #4694
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    HansKroenke wrote:
    Trouble brewing and there looks to be a huge job for the government to get the recovery going as soon as possible. On paper, weekly earnings rose by 7.5% for workers last year, but this excluded a quarter of the workforce (600,000) who were not employed or on some sort of income protection payment. With an impending US stimulus due to flood the market, inflation is going to increase, almost certainly. Those 75% of workers will need every penny of their earnings and not have it hoovered up in some form of covid tax.

    Highlights a big divide in income. McWilliams is spot on with the need for a 2 tier housing market
    1 as is and
    2 co operative housing on a large scale.

    We can't have so many people on such low incomes and a housing market that has its boot on there necks extracting the maximum rent out of them

    Sewing the seeds of revolution


  • #4695
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I'm sure families will adjust. Just like when the changeover happened from when women used to stay at home to raise the children and the man went out to work.

    Full time WFH and hybrid teaching will be fantastic for raising families and for society in general IMO

    You are talking out of your backside, as per usual. Ex is a university lecturer and my daughter is at college, both hate the remote teaching/learning experience with a passion. The current arrangments won't last a minute past lockdown mania ending.


  • #4696
    optogirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,042 ✭✭✭optogirl


    cnocbui wrote: »
    You are talking out of your backside, as per usual. Ex is a university lecturer and my daughter is at college, both hate the remote teaching/learning experience with a passion. The current arrangments won't last a minute past lockdown mania ending.

    totally agree. Home/Remote schooling is no substitute for hands on learning & the social education that school provides. It also needs available adults - not Mams and Dads dashing between their own work meetings/duties and trying to fit 3rd class equivalent equations and the modh coinníollach in too.


  • #4697
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    This is an unbelievable stat -

    "We know that pre-pandemic rents are at their highest rates ever, running between 48% and 68% of the median wage in Dublin."

    https://villagemagazine.ie/inequality-is-rising-in-ireland/


  • #4698
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Not maybe, it's yes.

    We are an example of one such couple.

    No matter how many times you churn out these statistics that 'cairn homes average selling price is 350k" it doesn't change the fact that houses in the area we like are 600k and we can afford to pay this. These houses are still selling, you make it out like they are not.

    These posts are gas lighting at there finest, keep hammering home the same statistic in the hopes it will stick.

    We can buy a house back where we are from for 150k, we could buy it in cash. But no, we want to mortgage up and buy one for 600k, and guess why? In contrast to what you repeatedly post, not everyone is trying to escape Dublin, the main economic centre of the country.

    These posts are filled with the same suppositions which have been consistently argued against, and evidence presented against them.

    I hope you get that house in Dartry you are after at a rock bottom price (or was is over on property pin you posted this?).

    Firstly, I obviously didn’t know you had recently “mortgaged up” to buy a c. €600k home.

    I’m in the very small percentage of people who believe such a property will most likely be worth c. €250k or less in two years so you shouldn’t be too worried about my predictions :)

    If I’m wrong, that’s good for you. If I’m right, then it’s good for the next family trying to start their life.

    Someone wins whether I’m right or wrong either way :)


  • #4699
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    This is an unbelievable stat -

    "We know that pre-pandemic rents are at their highest rates ever, running between 48% and 68% of the median wage in Dublin."

    https://villagemagazine.ie/inequality-is-rising-in-ireland/

    I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.


  • #4700
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,955 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Firstly, I obviously didn’t know you had recently “mortgaged up” to buy a c. €600k home.

    I’m in the very small percentage of people who believe such a property will most likely be worth c. €250k or less in two years so you shouldn’t be too worried about my predictions :)

    If I’m wrong, that’s good for you. If I’m right, then it’s good for the next family trying to start their life.

    Someone wins whether I’m right or wrong either way :)

    i thought something like that would be worth 150k in 1 year?

    75% decrease in the next 12-24 months and that was a few months back.


  • #4701
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Then call teachers what you really believe they are. Free childcare.


    I have more respect for teachers than most people I know.
    Its my ability to juggle the kids classes and my own work that is the problem.
    Also when I teach for work and when I am on online courses for work it is horribly sub optimal.


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  • #4702
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.

    Yes we measure inequality from the GINI index, highly selective just like most of Seamus Coffey's stats

    as per CSO -

    "The achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2019/backgroundnotes/


    To the rents, Timing Belt said a few days ago that workers in private tenure living in Dublin earn 52k median, when asked for a source multiple time it was never produced, do you have a source for this figure??


  • #4703
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    i thought something like that would be worth 150k in 1 year?

    75% decrease in the next 12-24 months and that was a few months back.


    I suppose one has to factor in the state doing their level best to limit the decline to c. 50%. But c. 75% isn't all out there either IMO :)

    Edit: Actually I take that back. There's very little the state can do to control what the investors do with all that property (many still vacant) they purchased between 2012 and 2016. They will be offloading those properties in the very near future so c. 75% falls at a minimum will be bang on IMO :)


  • #4704
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Yes we measure inequality from the GINI index, highly selective just like most of Seamus Coffey's stats

    as per CSO -

    "The achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2019/backgroundnotes/


    To the rents, Timing Belt said a few days ago that workers in private tenure living in Dublin earn 52k median, when asked for a source multiple time it was never produced, do you have a source for this figure??

    Who is “we”? I don’t have any stats for anything.


  • #4705
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Who is “we”? I don’t have any stats for anything.

    We is us, Ireland.


  • #4706
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    We is us, Ireland.

    I still don’t get what you’re asking me. My point is that a report published by unite is as useless as reports published by other vested interests.


  • #4707
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,955 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I suppose one has to factor in the state doing their level best to limit the decline to c. 50%. But c. 75% isn't all out there either IMO :)

    Edit: Actually I take that back. There's very little the state can do to control what the investors do with all that property (many still vacant) they purchased between 2012 and 2016. They will be offloading those properties in the very near future so c. 75% falls at a minimum will be bang on IMO :)

    i look forward to moving to coliemore road so :)


  • #4708
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,156 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.

    cause wage inflation is way too high compared to property and land price inflation!


  • #4709
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I still don’t get what you’re asking me. My point is that a report published by unite is as useless as reports published by other vested interests.

    That's fine I agree once we bundle the likes of Coffey into the vested interests groups.

    Keep in mind with the CSO, how accurate do you think say their inequality statistics can be by looking at the sample size

    " In 2019, the achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

    Ireland has never done accurate stats well...


  • #4710
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    That's fine I agree once we bundle the likes of Coffey into the vested interests groups.

    That’s what I said in my initial post. It wasn’t specific to leftist bollo*xology. Vested interests are vested interests.


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  • #4711
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    That’s what I said in my initial post. It wasn’t specific to leftist bollo*xology. Vested interests are vested interests.

    Lets say the stat of workers paying 48% and 68% of the median wage to rent in Dublin is union bullsh**

    I'm very interested in the true figure


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