2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Firstly, I obviously didn’t know you had recently “mortgaged up” to buy a c. €600k home.

I’m in the very small percentage of people who believe such a property will most likely be worth c. €250k or less in two years so you shouldn’t be too worried about my predictions

If I’m wrong, that’s good for you. If I’m right, then it’s good for the next family trying to start their life.

Someone wins whether I’m right or wrong either way

i thought something like that would be worth 150k in 1 year?

75% decrease in the next 12-24 months and that was a few months back.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Then call teachers what you really believe they are. Free childcare.

I have more respect for teachers than most people I know.
Its my ability to juggle the kids classes and my own work that is the problem.
Also when I teach for work and when I am on online courses for work it is horribly sub optimal.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.

Yes we measure inequality from the GINI index, highly selective just like most of Seamus Coffey's stats

as per CSO -

"The achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2019/backgroundnotes/


To the rents, Timing Belt said a few days ago that workers in private tenure living in Dublin earn 52k median, when asked for a source multiple time it was never produced, do you have a source for this figure??

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i thought something like that would be worth 150k in 1 year?

75% decrease in the next 12-24 months and that was a few months back.

I suppose one has to factor in the state doing their level best to limit the decline to c. 50%. But c. 75% isn't all out there either IMO

Edit: Actually I take that back. There's very little the state can do to control what the investors do with all that property (many still vacant) they purchased between 2012 and 2016. They will be offloading those properties in the very near future so c. 75% falls at a minimum will be bang on IMO

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Yes we measure inequality from the GINI index, highly selective just like most of Seamus Coffey's stats

as per CSO -

"The achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2019/backgroundnotes/


To the rents, Timing Belt said a few days ago that workers in private tenure living in Dublin earn 52k median, when asked for a source multiple time it was never produced, do you have a source for this figure??

Who is “we”? I don’t have any stats for anything.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

Who is “we”? I don’t have any stats for anything.

We is us, Ireland.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

We is us, Ireland.

I still don’t get what you’re asking me. My point is that a report published by unite is as useless as reports published by other vested interests.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I suppose one has to factor in the state doing their level best to limit the decline to c. 50%. But c. 75% isn't all out there either IMO

Edit: Actually I take that back. There's very little the state can do to control what the investors do with all that property (many still vacant) they purchased between 2012 and 2016. They will be offloading those properties in the very near future so c. 75% falls at a minimum will be bang on IMO

i look forward to moving to coliemore road so

Wanderer78

Hubertj wrote: »

I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.

cause wage inflation is way too high compared to property and land price inflation!

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

I still don’t get what you’re asking me. My point is that a report published by unite is as useless as reports published by other vested interests.

That's fine I agree once we bundle the likes of Coffey into the vested interests groups.

Keep in mind with the CSO, how accurate do you think say their inequality statistics can be by looking at the sample size

" In 2019, the achieved sample size was 4,183 households and 10,698 individuals"

Ireland has never done accurate stats well...

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That's fine I agree once we bundle the likes of Coffey into the vested interests groups.

That’s what I said in my initial post. It wasn’t specific to leftist bollo*xology. Vested interests are vested interests.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s what I said in my initial post. It wasn’t specific to leftist bollo*xology. Vested interests are vested interests.

Lets say the stat of workers paying 48% and 68% of the median wage to rent in Dublin is union bullsh**

I'm very interested in the true figure

Villa05

awec wrote:

On the one hand, you are telling us that young people are working in the city paying extortionate rents and they'll be itching to leave. Then on the other hand, young people have long commutes, so I guess they've already left in this version of the story?

More than half the people working in Dublin live outside Dublin

Both stories can be true

Stop nit picking

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i look forward to moving to coliemore road so

We're always very welcoming of new neighbours

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

More than half the people working in Dublin live outside Dublin

Both stories can be true

Stop nit picking

It's not nitpicking. It is frustrating when the "facts" keep changing to support whatever narrative is the current flavour of the month.

Villa05

DataDude wrote:

Based on the video it hasn't been touched for a long long time. €1m+ capital value, 6% expected return on risk assets. €60k of value every year being ignored. Have to agree with McWilliams - leaving a house (like this one anyway) derelict is a sign of too much wealth, not too little!

The house looks Irish, while the sea in the photo looks Greek

Yurt2

Hubertj wrote: »

I’ll stick to CSO data instead of any bol*ox a trade union will come out with. It’s no different to taking reports from other vested interests. Unions are a pet of the problem in this country.

Those figures of rent as a percentage of Dublin median wage come directly from CSO data sets. You're turning the gun on yourself old Hubertj.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

We're always very welcoming of new neighbours

if you lived there you would know thats not really true

if there is one thing that people from dalkey dont like its blow ins :rolleyes: and people who refer to dalkey as a village

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times: "Cushman & Wakefield to handle sale of €380m stake in Facebook's Dublin 4 HQ"

A few interesting details on the current lease agreement: "The consortium’s holding is fully-let to Facebook for a further nine years and forms part of the wider 79,290sq m (853,475sq ft) campus which is in the process of being delivered on the former AIB Bank Centre site."

"The highest-profile element of the campus will face on to Merrion Road and is being developed by Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group Real Estate (RGRE). Fibonacci Square, as it will be known, is set to comprise 34,838sq m (375,000sq ft) and has been fully-let to Facebook on a 25-year lease commencing in 2022."

Will be interesting to see the details of the lease breaks (if any) included in the part of the site with the 25 year lease agreement.

link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/cushman-wakefield-to-handle-sale-of-380m-stake-in-facebook-s-dublin-4-hq-1.4499311

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually I think the Hybrid model will be brought in for teachers in the very near future.

Given that all the online homework etc. can be analysed in real time and they can then see what students need extra help etc., the teachers will be primarily available in class two days a week to cater for the e.g. 30% of students who are having difficulties IMO

Everyone benefits.

The extra empty classrooms can then be used as cheap childcare space for other types of workers who can't WFH etc.

You obviously have no kids going through this it has been a disaster kids been thought through zoom and seesaw it gives parents no time or space at all. Kids need structure and mixing with other kids in their peer group. Doing this from home has been nothing short of a nightmare for me and my wife who are also trying to work at the same time..It is almost impossible to do and any other parent will tell you they would prefer their kid to go to school.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

You obviously have no kids going through this it has been a disaster kids been thought through zoom and seesaw it gives parents no time or space at all. Kids need structure and mixing with other kids in their peer group. Doing this from home has been nothing short of a nightmare for me and my wife who are also trying to work at the same time..It is almost impossible to do and any other parent will tell you they would prefer their kid to go to school.

You don’t think children would benefit from fewer, smaller class sizes which concentrate on the subject matters they are having difficulties in getting their heads around?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Then call teachers what you really believe they are. Free childcare.

Hardy free if your paying tax

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all

Up to 20 years ago, office work was much better. You could at least go for a few pints after work with work colleagues most days and then head home.

Then it all changed. There is little to no after work social life for most of the younger workers in an office in the city anymore. Most have to commute long distances and there are many other activities they would much rather engage in after work (e.g. internet stuff, local sports club etc.) than socialising in the pub with work colleagues after work who may bring up a drunken comment to HR the next day.

The vast majority of younger workers would be better off staying in and developing relationships in their local area than spending ten hours a day between working and commuting to a city centre office when there is no real requirement for them to be there anymore.

Just as a social experiment for yourself Props. When everything reopens give say 2/3 months after the restrictions are lifted and take a week off and position yourself in say Harcourt street one of the hotels their and Monday to Sunday go out in the evening say around 8pm and go to D2, then Diceys and at 3:30am try and get yourself into Copper Face Jacks then come back to me and tell me no one in Dublin city center is socializing. Your opinion is just that you need to stop thinking your opinion is fact and actually go out and look at the evidence that is there in front of you

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

You don’t think children would benefit from fewer, smaller class sizes which concentrate on the subject matters they are having difficulties in getting their heads around?

They would, the word that needs to be bolded for me to agree with you is CLASS as in they are in one. Honestly I think I have aged 20 years trying to get my 11 year old to do his seesaw tasks , there is no one to ask a question if my wife and I are on calls with work so what should take 20 minutes in the class takes 2 hours through him being lackadaisical and when he hits a problem he cant solve he simply stops . Then there are the distractions at home, games, TV, going out side to the garden to kick a ball, etc..Its been a nightmare I feel like he has learned nothing in the last 2 years. Schooling from home over zoom IMO does not work.

Graham

Mod Note

please take the discussion of class sizes to the appropriate forum.

Do not reply to this post.

decreds

Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

Well they are still a good 20% off what they were back at the peak of 07/08 so it could go higher if we go by historical data. But I think your right with the stagflation I cant see much growth in the next 5 years or so.

Timing belt

decreds wrote: »

Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

There is definitely asset inflation but despite all the savings and the increase in the M2 Money supply I don't think we will see inflation in the CPI in the next year. The increase in money supply is due to people saving because they are concerned about there future circumstances and this happens during every recession. I might be wrong on inflation but think that there are to many deflation pressures for us to see inflation in the CPI.

I also would not assume that if we do see inflation that it will equate to higher house prices as the inflation will need to be dealt with via rate increases which will hurt people that are not on a fixed rate.

PropQueries

decreds wrote: »

Do people reckon inflation will cause property prices to soar?

I don't buy the predictions, i see stagflation for the next few years with little real growth. Plus prices can't really go anymore insane as most people will not be able to purchase (excluding wealthy investors).

A co worker of mine recently got a mortgage and purchased, they borrowed at max capacity with the rationale that their mortgage rates are locked in for 5 years on a low rate and inflation should help kill the debt. While i do get where they are coming from with locking in low rates and inflation giving you a lift, i just wouldn't bank on inflation right now (despite all the money printing).

How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

The impact of inflation on wages in other developed countries also need to be considered..