2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Graham · 28-02-2021 12:52pm

PropQueries wrote: »

While they’re obviously right, if you’re a FTB don’t fall for their concern. It’s more to do with the fact that local estate agents generally don’t get a look in when new builds are being sold. Their bread and butter is second hand home sales.

Most new developments appoint one or two agents to handles sales.

Austria! · 28-02-2021 1:38pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I know why people buy BH, but I'm still waiting for your explanation as to what Buffet or BH shareholders get out of buying back their own shares? How does that benefit BH shareholders in a better way than giving that money to them as a dividend?

As I said originally, I think there is a problem with the tax system if it is encouraging this crazy practice.

Dividend or buyback doesn't create or destroy money, and there is no reason to prefer one over the other, except when it comes to tax. Certainly neither one is crazy. With a dividend shareholders get 25 billion, with a buy back their share price goes up by the same value. Someone with a low income tax might prefer dividend, someone with a high income tax or high capital losses might prefer the capital gains.

cnocbui · 28-02-2021 2:18pm

Austria! wrote: »

Dividend or buyback doesn't create or destroy money, and there is no reason to prefer one over the other, except when it comes to tax. Certainly neither one is crazy. With a dividend shareholders get 25 billion, with a buy back their share price goes up by the same value. Someone with a low income tax might prefer dividend, someone with a high income tax or high capital losses might prefer the capital gains.

How Stock Buybacks Destroy Shareholder Value

decreds · 28-02-2021 8:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I spoke with people around about savings and how they see them financial future
Some said they keep rising them saving because not sure about future of them jobs and try create parashute for mortgage or car loan
Some had difficulties already in 2008 and would not like have same issues again
Some use chance create savings before them 350 PUP will be turn into 200 euros unemployment benefit
So before talking about savings lets talk about who exactly saving money.Sadly nobody can not tell who and why rising them savings
I would be very careful before saying that savings will go into housing market when economy will be rising ( if will be ).

Exactly. Very little of it will impact the property market. Most of the people saving big cash are already property owners.

FTBers who only started saving since the pandemic won't have had enough time/salary to save much to make an impact.

Cyrus · 28-02-2021 9:21pm

In better news, I know we have a lot of McWilliams admirers here and I’m sure you all read his latest article with a keen interest.

He believes Ireland will bounce back very quickly economically from all of this and that the Budget deficit will narrow without the need for austerity .

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-why-ireland-will-recover-faster-than-others-1.4495214%3fmode=amp

hometruths · 28-02-2021 9:44pm

Assistant professor of architecture at UCD Orla Hegarty has been addressing the Soc Dems conference:

In a presentation to up to 700 delegates she suggested a regional development plan of €1 million per town to refurbish and retrofit 20 upper floor and vacant units in regional towns which could provide long-term jobs, create footfall and build sustainable communities.

Prof Hegarty said this option could be used for direct provision accommodation, homelessness and for one, two and three-person households on housing waiting lists who are not prioritised.

Sounds like she has a direct line to Props!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/construction-sector-spin-must-be-challenged-soc-dems-conference-told-1.4497193

decreds · 28-02-2021 10:03pm

Cyrus wrote: »

In better news, I know we have a lot of McWilliams admirers here and I’m sure you all read his latest article with a keen interest.

He believes Ireland will bounce back very quickly economically from all of this and that the Budget deficit will narrow without the need for austerity .

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-why-ireland-will-recover-faster-than-others-1.4495214%3fmode=amp

I'll have what he's smoking

PropQueries · 28-02-2021 11:16pm

decreds wrote: »

I'll have what he's smoking

Maybe he should have a chat with the chancellor of the exchequer in the UK. In an interview with the Financial Times two days ago:

“Rishi Sunak will use next week’s Budget to “level with people” over the “enormous strains” in Britain’s public finances, warning that, after a further injection of coronavirus support, a bill will have to be paid.

In an interview with the Financial Times, the chancellor said there was an immediate need to spend more to protect jobs as the UK emerged from the Covid-19 threat, but he warned that Britain’s finances were now “exposed”.

“There are some people who think you can ignore the problem. And, worse, there are some people who think there isn’t a problem at all. I don’t think that,” Sunak said.”

One would wonder how our government appears to believe that our covid bill doesn’t have to be paid.

And let’s be honest. The PUP payments are primarily being funded through the raiding of our PRSI fund which means the majority of the borrowing is once again (much like after the last crash) going to pay the salaries and pensions of the public sector.

But the full bill will be once again passed onto the private sector worker IMO

Link to interview in FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/ad974b76-a5c3-4615-8b73-72f4063875b2

PropQueries · 28-02-2021 11:41pm

schmittel wrote: »

Assistant professor of architecture at UCD Orla Hegarty has been addressing the Soc Dems conference:

Sounds like she has a direct line to Props!

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/construction-sector-spin-must-be-challenged-soc-dems-conference-told-1.4497193

It does seems like one of the easiest, cheapest solutions to what they keep saying is a “complicated” problem. I would do it differently but at least some are beginning to “get it”.

The supply is obviously already there and everyone can see the supply is already there every time they travel into every city, town and village in Ireland.

DataDude · 01-03-2021 10:27am

schmittel wrote: »

That one in glenageary is a smashing house. I’d think if you put 200k in that you’d end up with something awesome.

Offers already at €1.055m after a couple of days. Yikes!

awec · 01-03-2021 10:39am

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the SBP today:

“Fresh pressure is mounting on the government’s proposed €75 million shared equity scheme, with a group representing 1,500 estate agents and auctioneers now claiming it will not make housing more affordable for buyers.”

While they’re obviously right, if you’re a FTB don’t fall for their concern. It’s more to do with the fact that local estate agents generally don’t get a look in when new builds are being sold. Their bread and butter is second hand home sales.

Either way, good to see the pressure mounting on this nonsense scheme which only benefits landowners. And who owns most of the land banks in and around our urban centres? Either the big developers or the funds.

Link to article in SBP: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/opposition-to-states-eur75m-shared-equity-scheme-grows-bb887453

I have no idea where you got this notion.

New builds are sold via estate agents. In fact many EAs split their staff into those that deal in second hand housing and those that do new builds.

awec · 01-03-2021 10:52am

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe he should have a chat with the chancellor of the exchequer in the UK. In an interview with the Financial Times two days ago:

“Rishi Sunak will use next week’s Budget to “level with people” over the “enormous strains” in Britain’s public finances, warning that, after a further injection of coronavirus support, a bill will have to be paid.

In an interview with the Financial Times, the chancellor said there was an immediate need to spend more to protect jobs as the UK emerged from the Covid-19 threat, but he warned that Britain’s finances were now “exposed”.

“There are some people who think you can ignore the problem. And, worse, there are some people who think there isn’t a problem at all. I don’t think that,” Sunak said.”

One would wonder how our government appears to believe that our covid bill doesn’t have to be paid.

And let’s be honest. The PUP payments are primarily being funded through the raiding of our PRSI fund which means the majority of the borrowing is once again (much like after the last crash) going to pay the salaries and pensions of the public sector.

But the full bill will be once again passed onto the private sector worker IMO

Link to interview in FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/ad974b76-a5c3-4615-8b73-72f4063875b2

Apparently there was some huge event in the UK the past few years which is going to have massive economic and social consequences going forward for them, did you hear anything about that?

Anyway, there is no point comparing the UK to us, though I'm sure you're aware of this. Their payout scheme was completely different, they were paying out 80% of people's wages up to a limit that was twice as high as anyone on our top rate of PUP (we were paying out less than minimum wage).

fliball123 · 01-03-2021 11:27am

awec wrote: »

Apparently there was some huge event in the UK the past few years which is going to have massive economic and social consequences going forward for them, did you hear anything about that?

Anyway, there is no point comparing the UK to us, though I'm sure you're aware of this. Their payout scheme was completely different, they were paying out 80% of people's wages up to a limit that was twice as high as anyone on our top rate of PUP (we were paying out less than minimum wage).

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

Also Veradkar has come out saying once again as recently as this weekend that they are projecting that we will be able to grow the economy enough that we wont need cuts or higher taxes. I am sure for the remainder of this government (how ever long that will be) I cant see there being higher taxes when public servants are getting pay rises (including the government themselves) as the optics of this would be terrible and would completely p1ss off the majority of FG and FF voting blocks. The next budget IMO will be a directional arrow as to how the government plan to pay the bill and that will all depend on the speed of a recovery (if there is one)

awec · 01-03-2021 11:31am

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

You can't just compare raw figures either though, since both their population and economy is larger than ours. It's more nuanced.

My point was that the UK is on a totally different path now to the rest of Europe and pointing at them as being a bellweather for what Ireland is about to face is IMO disingenuous. Covid or no covid they were in for some pretty serious economic upheaval over the next few years as they have to come to terms with their new reality.

Rishi Sunak saying the Brits need to have a reckoning does not mean doom is impending for us or the EU.

fliball123 · 01-03-2021 11:39am

awec wrote: »

You can't just compare raw figures either though, since both their population and economy is larger than ours. It's more nuanced.

My point was that the UK is on a totally different path now to the rest of Europe and pointing at them as being a bellweather for what Ireland is about to face is IMO disingenuous. Covid or no covid they were in for some pretty serious economic upheaval over the next few years as they have to come to terms with their new reality.

Rishi Sunak saying the Brits need to have a reckoning does not mean doom is impending for us or the EU.

Very true and that was kind of my point in that you cant compare them with us at all. The UK are on their own and even if Ireland hit the skids they will always have the ECB as a lender of last resort.

Browney7 · 01-03-2021 11:40am

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

Also Veradkar has come out saying once again as recently as this weekend that they are projecting that we will be able to grow the economy enough that we wont need cuts or higher taxes. I am sure for the remainder of this government (how ever long that will be) I cant see there being higher taxes when public servants are getting pay rises (including the government themselves) as the optics of this would be terrible and would completely p1ss off the majority of FG and FF voting blocks. The next budget IMO will be a directional arrow as to how the government plan to pay the bill and that will all depend on the speed of a recovery (if there is one)

Don't follow your point on the UK? Their population is 10 times ours (roughly) so if our debt is going up by 30bn is it not fair to adjust their 400bn to 40bn when drawing inferences?

fliball123 · 01-03-2021 11:45am

Browney7 wrote: »

Don't follow your point on the UK? Their population is 10 times ours (roughly) so if our debt is going up by 30bn is it not fair to adjust their 400bn to 40bn when drawing inferences?

My point is the two countries cannot be compared (as props has been trying to tell us to look at the situation the UK are in as a kind of warning) They are on their own they have to balance the books as they no longer have the EU to back them up any longer, we do if the sh1t rains from the skies like it did back in 08 we have already got a proven mechanism in the ECB who will allow us to borrow if we need to. So I just think we cant compare the two countries at the moment as you pointed out their population , debt and access to European markets is completely different to ours.

PommieBast · 01-03-2021 12:21pm

decreds wrote: »

Huge brain drain on the way.

Certainly post-Covid I will be moving to London. Problem with Dublin is that the quality of housing does not reflect the asking prices.

Cyrus · 01-03-2021 1:20pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Certainly post-Covid I will be moving to London. Problem with Dublin is that the quality of housing does not reflect the asking prices.

curious to understand if you think that situation is different in london? in my experience its worse, with regard to the quality / value proposition.

hometruths · 01-03-2021 1:41pm

fliball123 wrote: »

My point is the two countries cannot be compared (as props has been trying to tell us to look at the situation the UK are in as a kind of warning) They are on their own they have to balance the books as they no longer have the EU to back them up any longer, we do if the sh1t rains from the skies like it did back in 08 we have already got a proven mechanism in the ECB who will allow us to borrow if we need to. So I just think we cant compare the two countries at the moment as you pointed out their population , debt and access to European markets is completely different to ours.

That cuts both ways. They have their own currency and autonomy and can do what they like.

Yes the ECB will have our back, but only up to the point that it is in collective interests of all member states.

The fall out from COVID will be interesting to see which way the Fed, Bank of England, ECB etc play interest rates and inflation. At the moment they're all singing from the same hymn sheet which is borrow more, print to pay for it. They're more concerned with fighting fires in their own backyards than what's going on elsewhere.

However when we get into recovery mode the ECB might face a situation where ramping up QE and keeping interest rates low is in the best interests of some member states eg Ireland, but not others eg Germany.

If we see a meaningful uptick in inflation, this will be a significant decision.

PommieBast · 01-03-2021 1:42pm

Cyrus wrote: »

curious to understand if you think that situation is different in london? in my experience its worse, with regard to the quality / value proposition.

Value is not in the equation. However thanks to travel restrictions I've spent a good portion of the last 8 months in the general London area and properties I've seen for sale are not run down like the majority of the ones I viewed in Dublin.

Cyrus · 01-03-2021 1:45pm

DataDude wrote: »

Offers already at €1.055m after a couple of days. Yikes!

at least it supports my assertion that it would have been worth north of 1.25m when extended and renovated

whether it will be worth the 1.5m itll now cost im not as sure.

DataDude · 01-03-2021 2:32pm

Cyrus wrote: »

at least it supports my assertion that it would have been worth north of 1.25m when extended and renovated

whether it will be worth the 1.5m itll now cost im not as sure.

Yep - good call! When we realised that this went for €1.15m last year with half the garden sold off and east facing we knew no. 36 would way exceeding asking. When it seems like it's too good to be true...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/66-albert-road-lower-sandycove-county-dublin/4451797

decreds · 01-03-2021 8:16pm

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

I think theres going to be a lot of people in a few months feeling very sorry for themselves when they realise they have grossly overpaid for houses they dont really like at all.

The one in Raheny posted a little while ago could cost 100k to 110k to renovate if a modern heating system and insulation is on your list, place would need to be gutted.

15k on a new kitchen, 6k on a new bathroom, new windows, new heating, insulation, labour to rip out old fittings, replastering, rewiring in parts im sure at least and top to bottom repainting, flooring etc.

Not much change out of 550k if you get it up to modern spec at that price with various fees etc.

Never mind if you want to put on an extension.

100%, nail on the head.

I'm in a watsapp group with friends i grew up with in Santry and links to myhome/daft and PPR are comical.

Without fail property is advertised as Glasnevin/Santry and sold when it's actually Ballymun or Finglas. We see the same in other areas e.g Edenmore/Raheny, Blanch/Castleknock, etc.

Most of the property being exchange now and within the past few years was purchased by the sellers for fractions of what they are getting now.

People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

Padre_Pio · 01-03-2021 8:23pm

decreds wrote: »

People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

I agree/disagree with this to an extent.

The people who bought 2006-2008 were also taken to the cleaners, but only those who bought the worst rat hole apartments are in neg equity now. Ireland looks on course for another boom bust cycle, though people have been predicting the bust for the last 5 years at least.

At the end of the day, people need to buy a house. Chances are, if they stay there more than 10 years, they'll be making money. No govt is going to change the cycle, they can't! Anyone who owns a home is happy out with the situation right now.

Sweet.Science · 01-03-2021 8:34pm

decreds wrote: »

100%, nail on the head.

I'm in a watsapp group with friends i grew up with in Santry and links to myhome/daft and PPR are comical.

Without fail property is advertised as Glasnevin/Santry and sold when it's actually Ballymun or Finglas. We see the same in other areas e.g Edenmore/Raheny, Blanch/Castleknock, etc.

Most of the property being exchange now and within the past few years was purchased by the sellers for fractions of what they are getting now.

People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

Of course most of the houses being bought now we're bought for fractions of the cost . Is that not obvious ? Older generations are dying

Once it isn't an investment and the repayments are affordable it doesn't really matter

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-03-2021 9:04pm

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

Padre_Pio · 01-03-2021 9:18pm

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

Govt will probably come out and increase HTB to keep the party going.

Smiley11 · 01-03-2021 9:39pm

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

The ferocity of bidding is definitely buoying current asking & selling prices. I'm no economist but I can't see this situation lasting too long. The 3.5 times cap won't change so unless people have massive deposits saved, which is quite possible in some instances, demand will have to ease at some price levels. I can't see any significant easing in the next couple of years but then again the property market is utterly unpredicatble so who knows?

PropQueries · 02-03-2021 12:00am

According to Glenveagh’s 2020 results:

“The average selling price on its core units was €311,000, which was down from €321,000, reflecting the group’s focus on suburban starter-home schemes.”

So with Cairn Homes stating recently that their average selling price during 2020 being c. €350k, we are getting ballpark figures for what the bigger developers are building each of their units for.

And, it’s a lot less than what DCC, the SCSI etc. have been stating for the past few years.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/covid-driving-demand-for-three-and-four-bed-homes-glenveagh-1.4495744

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1