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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #3272
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,633 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    PTH2009 wrote: »
    There could be even more trouble if we get an extension of the restrictions in April

    As we know someone will leak it to the press mid March

    What another 500 scumbags will show up to get clattered by the Gards? Okay. I’d rather it didn’t happen mind, but hey. First week in April we’ll be dispersing a quarter of a million doses a week. Things will be looking much much better in every respect.


  • #3273
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    So he’s done back of a pack of matches maths to quantify a ~2% difference...what is there even to respond to?

    I'd reckon its even less than 2% - Total number of deaths of those over 65 in Sweden are closer to 13,000 than 12,000 afaik ...


  • #3274
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    So he’s done back of a pack of matches maths to quantify a ~2% difference...what is there even to respond to?

    I mean you would at least expect one of the people who stated with great certainty that he was wrong to present counter-evidence to support their point.


  • #3275
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,633 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I mean you would at least expect one of the people who stated with great certainty that he was wrong to present counter-evidence to support their point.
    Just as you’d expect someone who confidently stated the original claim to have more than the roughest of roughest calculations asserting a possible negligible difference. But hey ho, this is the relax restrictions thread after all.


  • #3276
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    This is just intentional misinformation masquerading as an opinion. It would help if such assertions were backed up with at least a linky to a reputable site/article.

    Otherwise you're just misleading people.
    I'm afraid it is true and has been for some time. To find this out for yourself, calculate the proportion dying from Covid-19 at each age group. You will find it is roughly the same proportion of 65s, 70s and so forth die in Sweden as in Ireland. The increased numbers of deaths in Sweden are largely explained by the older age profile of that country. Older people tend to die of Covid-19 and Sweden has more older people.

    We don't want to believe that is true because here in Ireland we have sacrificed so much and destroyed peoples livelihoods and large parts of the economy. We don't want to have to accept that our whole approach as been wrong. However not wanting something to be true does not make it untrue.

    I think the reason Sweden has much the same deaths per age group as Ireland is because Sweden has gone for steady sustainable policies where as Ireland has gone for damaging politics-led stop-start measures. Yes at times we have very low covid-19 figures but at other times they shoot up and because we are not used to it, quite high deaths result.


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  • #3277
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Just as you’d expect someone who confidently stated the original claim to have more than the roughest of roughest calculations asserting a possible negligible difference. But hey ho, this is the relax restrictions thread after all.

    Just as you would expect one of the people who stated with great certainty that he was wrong to present counter-evidence to support their point.

    See how that's circular?

    The holier-than-thou-I'm-too-good-for-this-thread stuff might make you feel good about yourself, but it's still not doing anything to counter the only evidence that has been presented regarding the difference in Covid-19 death rates between over 70s in Ireland and Sweden. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


  • #3278
    fin12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,934 ✭✭✭✭fin12


    Anyone know the details about the planned protest for cork next Saturday? What time is it starting please?


  • #3279
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,051 ✭✭✭Polar101


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    These calculation’s are incredibly rough, but it’s what I’m using to back up my claim of a 70 year old in Sweden being at less risk than one in Ireland

    I'd also wager Sweden has a better healthcare system than Ireland.


  • #3280
    amandstu
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Polar101 wrote: »
    I'd also wager Sweden has a better healthcare system than Ireland.



    Does that count?:rolleyes:


  • #3281
    Tokyo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,655 ✭✭✭✭Tokyo


    AlekSmart wrote: »
    Also,some of the clips appear to show Gardai using flash-bang's to disperse the crowd,was this the case ?

    Mod: Please provide some form of evidence as to why you suspect this, otherwise it gets relegated to the conspiracy theory pile.


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  • #3282
    ingo1984
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭ingo1984


    Pitch n Putt wrote: »
    Panic as usual....

    NPHET is not fit for purpose anymore and need to be disbanded immediately

    NPHET need to understand what living with covid is or should be.

    We can’t continue living in fear of covid.

    The whole communication is about driving the numbers down in March. But then in the same breath they are saying schools will reopen. With a strain that is more prevalent amongst children than previous ones, but also more transmissible. I believe the two are mutually exclusive. Can't lower numbers and reopen schools. Feel we are being slow rolled until start of April when government will string us along again. I feel that is the point when the people will finally say enough is enough.


  • #3283
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,095 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Read my post again. I said “as far as I’m aware”

    Does that make it that I claim it as fact?

    It was calculated in one of the other threads in this forum from the following links by a poster who is multiple times more articulate than myself.

    I’m using a phone so I’ll roughly show how it was calculated

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

    From that approximately 12,000 deaths occurred in the over 65 age group in Sweden which has 2,000,000 citizens, which is a death rate of about 600 per 100k

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/COVID-19%20Weekly%20Report_%20Week%207_%20Slideset_HPSC_website_v1.0.pdf

    Ireland has approx 4000 deaths in the over 65 age group with about 650,00 in that group, which is a death rate of about 615 per 100k

    These calculation’s are incredibly rough, but it’s what I’m using to back up my claim of a 70 year old in Sweden being at less risk than one in Ireland

    Youre actually bang on they both have the same chance of dying IF they are over 65 regardless of the country and you have come up with the same figures I have.
    I calculated it with around 7 countries - Ireland,UK,Italy, Sweden, Spain,India and I cant remember the others.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058151127&page=634

    Post 9500 and post 9509 and onwards.

    Theere were a couple of strange anomilies -The UK who was a lot higher and India which was a lot lower.

    But over all its a death rate of 0.5% in over 65s and 0.08% of the population as a whole.


  • #3284
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    ingo1984 wrote: »
    The whole communication is about driving the numbers down in March. But then in the same breath they are saying schools will reopen. With a strain that is more prevalent amongst children than previous ones, but also more transmissible. I believe the two are mutually exclusive. Can't lower numbers and reopen schools. Feel we are being slow rolled until start of April when government will string us along again. I feel that is the point when the people will finally say enough is enough.

    Can you post some believable evidence (i.e. based on science, free of 'might', 'could' malarkey) that endorses your statement? Thanks.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3285
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    Youre actually bang on they both have the same chance of dying IF they are over 65 regardless of the country and you have come up with the same figures I have.
    I calculated it with around 7 countries - Ireland,UK,Italy, Sweden, Spain,India and I cant remember the others.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058151127&page=634

    Post 9500 and post 9509 and onwards.

    Theere were a couple of strange anomilies -The UK who was a lot higher and India which was a lot lower.

    But over all its a death rate of 0.5% in over 65s and 0.08% of the population as a whole.

    In actuality, you appear more likely to survive Covid if you are over 70 in Ireland than in Sweden.

    The death rate in overs 70's in Sweden is 19.8%. 19.8% of over 70's diagnosed, died.

    Dont have data on the exact overlapping age ranges for Ireland, however,

    Death rate in Over 85's is 22.5%, in 75-84s' is 13.5% and in 65 to 74's is 4.6%. Or digging a bit deeper, the death rate in over 75's here at 17.4%, is lower than the death rate in over 70's in Sweden.

    Is our health service better?

    What it looks like is the rate of the virus - cases per 100k if you will, is lower in older people in Sweden than it is here, even though, overall they had 50% more cases per million
    Is that because they love their grandparents more and avoided contact with them? Or is it because they are indifferent to their grandparents, and don't bother visiting them.


  • #3286
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    So he’s done back of a pack of matches maths to quantify a ~2% difference...what is there even to respond to?

    others including a moderator stuck their beak in calling him out.
    one poster said (attracting some likes too) that his sources was his hoop.
    he clearly countered that, 2% difference or not . Or even if you disagree with his method.

    They should have the minimum courtesy to reply.


  • #3287
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,307 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Newstalk just had some "misinformation analysist at the institute for strategic dialogue" (wut?) on, rambling on about lunatic fringes, conspiracy theories and so on.

    The desperation to discredit and slow the growing pushback from the general population is obvious. Apparently there's another protest planned for Paddy's Day


  • #3288
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,095 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In actuality, you appear more likely to survive Covid if you are over 70 in Ireland than in Sweden.

    The death rate in overs 70's in Sweden is 19.8%. 19.8% of over 70's diagnosed, died.

    Dont have data on the exact overlapping age ranges for Ireland, however,

    Death rate in Over 85's is 22.5%, in 75-84s' is 13.5% and in 65 to 74's is 4.6%. Or digging a bit deeper, the death rate in over 75's here at 17.4%, is lower than the death rate in over 70's in Sweden.

    Is our health service better?

    What it looks like is the rate of the virus - cases per 100k if you will, is lower in older people in Sweden than it is here, even though, overall they had 50% more cases per million
    Is that because they love their grandparents more and avoided contact with them? Or is it because they are indifferent to their grandparents, and don't bother visiting them.

    The reason I used over 65s is because that was the data available.

    If you use the over 65s figure the death rate is almost identical.

    Using your metric above we could all pick out an age that that has a better survival rate in one country than another but using over 65s works as the data is there.


  • #3289
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    The reason I used over 65s is because that was the data available.

    If you use the over 65s figure the death rate is almost identical.

    Using your metric above we could all pick out an age that that has a better survival rate in one country than another but using over 65s works as the data is there.

    Its not the same though. There were proportionally more cases among the over 65s in Ireland than in Sweden. You were more likely to get covid if you were over 65 in Ireland. Once you got it, you were more likely to die from it in Sweden.


  • #3290
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »

    But over all its a death rate of 0.5% in over 65s and 0.08% of the population as a whole.

    0.08% is the risk of dying if under 65? Is that a 1 in 1,250 chance, I think?

    And only 0.5% for over 65s...

    When you see these raw statistics, it hammers home how deeply unnecessary the fearmongering and perma-lockdown has been.

    Once the over-65s are vaccinated, this will reduce 92 percent of all deaths.

    Surely at that time, the entire country should open up! :mad:


  • #3291
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,245 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Newstalk just had some "misinformation analysist at the institute for strategic dialogue" (wut?) on, rambling on about lunatic fringes, conspiracy theories and so on.

    The desperation to discredit and slow the growing pushback from the general population is obvious. Apparently there's another protest planned for Paddy's Day
    The protesters did a great job discrediting themselves alright. Lets hope the Gardai are better prepared to deal with them next time.


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  • #3292
    ingo1984
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭ingo1984


    walus wrote: »
    Can you post some believable evidence (i.e. based on science, free of 'might', 'could' malarkey) that endorses your statement? Thanks.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/

    Research states it has higher transmissibslity than previous strains but also a larger share of under 20 year olds reported the new strain.


  • #3293
    copeyhagen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭copeyhagen


    pjohnson wrote: »
    The protesters did a great job discrediting themselves alright. Lets hope the Gardai are better prepared to deal with them next time.

    with what, live ammo?


  • #3294
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    with what, live ammo?

    Seriously?

    You can't think of anything between a line of Gardai with batons and live ammo?


  • #3295
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,095 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    0.08% is the risk of dying if under 65? Is that a 1 in 1,250 chance, I think?

    And only 0.5% for over 65s...

    When you see these raw statistics, it hammers home how deeply unnecessary the fearmongering and perma-lockdown has been.

    Once the over-65s are vaccinated, this will reduce 92 percent of all deaths.

    Surely at that time, the entire country should open up! :mad:

    Its a 0.8% dying as a percentage of the overall population.
    0.5% chance of dying if you are over 65.


  • #3296
    copeyhagen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭copeyhagen


    Graham wrote: »
    Seriously?

    You can't think of anything between a line of Gardai with batons and live ammo?

    dummy ammo?


  • #3297
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    ingo1984 wrote: »
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/

    Research states it has higher transmissibslity than previous strains but also a larger share of under 20 year olds reported the new strain.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(21)00030-4/fulltext

    "Importantly, we have found no evidence of more severe disease having occurred in children and young people during the second wave, suggesting that infection with the B.1.1.7 variant does not result in an appreciably different clinical course to the original strain. These findings are in keeping with early national data. Severe acute respiratory COVID-19 remains an uncommon occurrence in children and young people."

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3298
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,095 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Its not the same though. There were proportionally more cases among the over 65s in Ireland than in Sweden. You were more likely to get covid if you were over 65 in Ireland. Once you got it, you were more likely to die from it in Sweden.

    I never said it was the same - I said the data is not available for us to prove it one way or another. The data is there for both countries for over 65s so thats all we can use to compare.

    Over 65 - 0.5 % chance of dying regardless of whether you are in Ireland or Sweden.


  • #3299
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    dummy ammo?

    Keep trying. It's right up there with permanent lockdown in the credibility stakes.


  • #3300
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    The desperation to discredit and slow the growing pushback from the general population is obvious. Apparently there's another protest planned for Paddy's Day

    Do you think the general populous was representative of the collection of weirdos and racists who showed up to riot on Saturday?


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  • #3301
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Boggles wrote: »
    Do you think the general populous was represented by the collection of weirdos and racists who showed up to riot on Saturday?

    The 'weirdos & racists' were heavily outnumbered by normal people on Saturday.
    But of course only the nutters & the violent ones will garner media attention.


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