Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Boggles

francogarbanzo wrote: »

I haven't read "all the reports." I didn't read any reports in fact. I watched the live stream as it was happening for hours.

If a report says there were 400 people there, that report is wrong. That's not difficult to understand. You can count the people one by one if you want. You'll see that yourself.

There were all types of people there, including "conspiracy wackos", scumbags with fireworks, and regular joes who are fed up with the governments response to the pandemic. My point, after watching the events take place myself and not via someone else's opinion, is that those in the latter cohort made up the majority of those in attendance.

Obviously it's not possible to read someone's mind or intentions or beliefs from a video, so you have to observe their actions. A vast majority of people were peacefully protesting as is their right. Some people were violent, wrongfully.

Hang on, you stated Drew Harris's summation that it was a concerted mob of fringe lunatics was false.

Then you linked a video to a lad telling people Luciferians are trying to kill them with vaccines.

You do know that yeah?

What in Gods name am I suppose to debate with?

Your disproving your own assertions, with sound and pictures.

Riodej1578

Boggles wrote: »

Why would it have any influence or governance or public health?

Far right violent extremists assaulting Gardaí and others is a matter for criminal justice.

That's it.

A special court has been setup to deal with the scum, hopefully custodial sentences for all.

The Guard that was hit with the firework has been hospitalized apparently.

Yes, it's a criminal justice matter, I totally agree.

But, the longer restrictions go on, the more protests we will have with large gatherings. I don't see that stopping.

Meaning increasing potential for spreading virus.

I just wonder what effect it will have on government decisions. Might be none at all but expect it to have some influence.

Boggles

timmyntc wrote: »

Also interesting though is that some of the people in the crowd walking away from the gardai get a few belts with batons for no real reason. Gardai acting the hard men it seems.

You mean like inciting a riot?

We saw the "hard men" verbally and physically abuse the gardaí for an hour before that, not so "hard" when they were charged though, were they?

You better than that, lad.

Hellrazer

Ill make it easy for you.
We have 4.9 million people in the country.
There are 700k over 65 leaving 4.2million under 65

Deaths as today are 4319
92% of that is 3973.

As a percentage of over all population in over 65s then the death rate is 0.54% 3973/7000000 x100

If you work out the rate for the rest of the population under 65 then its 4319 - 3973 = 346

346/42000000 = 0.008%

From these figures you can then assume that if you are over 65 in Ireland you have a 0.54% chance of dying from covid 19 and if you are under 65 you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid 19

We are keeping a country locked down based on figures that are so low in the general working aged population to be almost insignificant.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

And your "stat" only makes sense if you know the exact number of over 65s tested and who have confirmed positive
But it also only makes sense if every single over 65 was tested.

It works both ways.

The facts are that of our population of 700k over 65s 0.5% have died from covid 19.

The figure is actually 92% of the deaths of covid 19 occurred in over 65s - thats fact not a makey up stat.

You can then use that data to assume that the death rate in over 65s is 0.5%

You havent backed up any of your posts with one piece of verifiable data that can be checked.

3,828 over 65's have died, 32,193 have tested positive . 11.8% of those that tested positive died.

The 0.5% is not a death rate in over 65's, its a measure of deaths in over 65's

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

3,208 over 65's have died, 32,193 have tested positive . 11.8% of those that tested positive died.

The 0.5% is not a death rate in over 65's, its a measure of deaths in over 65's

The chance that you get hit by a car and die is not the same as the chance that you die, given you have already been hit by a car.

You are comparing apples and oranges here.
As an over 65, the chance of me dying from covid right now is 0.5%
If I had already contracted covid, then the chance is 11.8%.

Do you understand now?
There is a very good chance that I will not contract covid in the first place - and that is an important part of the equation.

Lundstram

User1998 wrote: »

As I said I don’t know how accurate it is, so it’s hardly a claim. Its quite easy to tell from some of the videos that it was more than 300 people

Do you have a source to say that 10% of the attendees have been arrested?

User1998 wrote: »

How do you know that 10% of people that attended have been arrested?

Don't bother, Boggles won't answer. What he will do is quote your post then cut out your question in his reply so he doesn't have to answer it.

Then he'll ask for links himself and spam the thread until he gets a response then he'll say he's won the arguement because you can't back it up. He justs selectively quotes parts of posts to suit him

He will then complete his post with a passive agressive emoji. Meaning Boggles is the good guy, you're the big bad man.

And he's been doing it for months now.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ill make it easy for you.
We have 4.9 million people in the country.
There are 700k over 65 leaving 4.2million under 65

Deaths as today are 4319
92% of that is 3973.

As a percentage of over all population in over 65s then the death rate is 0.54% 3973/7000000 x100

If you work out the rate for the rest of the population under 65 then its 4319 - 3973 = 346

346/42000000 = 0.008%

From these figures you can then assume that if you are over 65 in Ireland you have a 0.54% chance of dying from covid 19 and if you are under 65 you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid 19

We are keeping a country locked down based on figures that are so low in the general working aged population to be almost insignificant.

Again, once more, slowly this time. 0.5% of the over 65s have died from Covid. This is a cumulative measure, not a relative measure. It will keep increasing until there are no more deaths from covid.

francogarbanzo

Boggles wrote: »

Hang on, you stated Drew Harris's summation that it was a concerted mob of fringe lunatics was false.

Then you linked a video to a lad telling people Luciferians are trying to kill them with vaccines.

You do know that yeah?

What in Gods name am I suppose to debate with?

Your disproving your own assertions, with sound and pictures.

Alright. I see this is going nowhere. You're either incapable of holding a nuanced view on the subject (black and white thinking) or you're so blinded by some ideology that you're unable to see things as they are.

There were way more than 400 people there. Most people there were not violent or fringe extremists. That's all.

Boggles

User1998 wrote: »

How do you know that 10% of people that attended have been arrested?

That's not what I said, but I will explain once you give me the multiple sources for 8000-10000 people in attendance.

Hellrazer

Deleted User wrote: »

3,208 over 65's have died, 32,193 have tested positive . 11.8% of those that tested positive died.

But what about the other 670k that havent been tested or are asymptomatic?
You can just exclude them for the sake of your argument.

The 0.5% is not a death rate in over 65's, its a measure of deaths in over 65's

Now you really have me confused!!!Same thing no?

Boggles

francogarbanzo wrote: »

There were way more than 400 people there. Most people there were not violent or fringe extremists. That's all.

Yet when asked for proof that they weren't and to refute what the Garda Commissioner stated.

You link to a video of a fringe loon being a lunatic.

Like I said you are not helping yourself nor are you refuting what Harris stated.

On that basis and I am being more than reasonable, I will have to stick with what I have seen including the video you linked to and what the Commissioner stated.

'A concerted mob of fringe loons.'

Boggles

Lundstram wrote: »

Don't bother, Boggles won't answer. What he will do is quote your post then cut out your question in his reply so he doesn't have to answer it.

Then he'll ask for links himself and spam the thread until he gets a response then he'll say he's won the arguement because you can't back it up. He justs selectively quotes parts of posts to suit him

He will then complete his post with a passive agressive emoji. Meaning Boggles is the good guy, you're the big bad man.

And he's been doing it for months now.

I thought you were not going posting here any more?

Welcome back.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Again, once more, slowly this time. 0.5% of the over 65s have died from Covid. This is a cumulative measure, not a relative measure. It will keep increasing until there are no more deaths from covid.

The number of over 65s will keep increasing as more 64year olds have birthdays - whats your point?

You seem to be under the impression that the death rate will continue to spiral 'out-of-control' until 100% of over 65s have died?
That is absurd and nothing close to it will ever happen.

You also seem to think that eventually 100% of over 65s will contract the virus, and then that 11.8% mortality comes into play - that is false. In no pandemic/epidemic will 100% of people or even close to that get infected.
This is why we look at outcomes across all over 65s, not just those who tested positive.

francogarbanzo

Boggles wrote: »

Yet when asked for proof that they weren't and to refute what the Garda Commissioner stated.

You link to a video of a fringe loon being a lunatic.

Like I said you are not helping yourself nor are you refuting what Harris stated.

On that basis and I am being more than reasonable, I will have to stick with what I have seen including the video you linked to and what the Commissioner stated.

'A concerted mob of fringe loons.'

I linked to a one hour long stream of one area of the protest.

Boggles

francogarbanzo wrote: »

I linked to a one hour long stream of one area of the protest.

Which more than confirmed the summation by Commissioner Harris.

Like I said, I gave you a chance.

Unless you have anything else, my mind is not for changing, we will have to leave it there.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

The number of over 65s will keep increasing as more 64year olds have birthdays - whats your point?

You seem to be under the impression that the death rate will continue to spiral 'out-of-control' until 100% of over 65s have died?
That is absurd and nothing close to it will ever happen.

You also seem to think that eventually 100% of over 65s will contract the virus, and then that 11.8% mortality comes into play - that is false. In no pandemic/epidemic will 100% of people or even close to that get infected.
This is why we look at outcomes across all over 65s, not just those who tested positive.

Why would the 11.8% mortality figure come into it, though?

I mean, if you account for the entire population as you do, then the mortality rate is 0.5%.

But if everyone were to contract it, the risk of death would be 11.8%?

I understand that you say this doesn't happen in an epidemic, but surely the 11.8% individual mortality risk is more accurate?

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

The chance that you get hit by a car and die is not the same as the chance that you die, given you have already been hit by a car.

You are comparing apples and oranges here.
As an over 65, the chance of me dying from covid right now is 0.5%
If I had already contracted covid, then the chance is 11.8%.

Do you understand now?
There is a very good chance that I will not contract covid in the first place - and that is an important part of the equation.

The pandemic is ongoing. More people will die. Therefore the 0.5% is a measure of the deaths so far. Extrapolating this rate for the population assumes no one else gets it.

To use your analogy, it would be like taking the road death figures in June, and because there have only been 100 deaths so far, concluding that the annual death rate was 2 per 100,000. To extrapolate the interim figure on an annual basis you would need to know the rate per journey (infections) and the number of expected journeys in the remainder of the year(number of future infections).

Luckily the vaccine will make this a moot point soon enough.

francogarbanzo

Boggles wrote: »

Which more than confirmed the summation by Commissioner Harris.

Like I said, I gave you a chance.

Unless you have anything else, my mind is not for changing, we will have to leave it there.

Of course it isn't. That's the great thing about adopting an ideologically driven view: You have a template through which to understand a subject and you don't need to change your mind, even when presented with evidence which contradicts it. Like a one hour stream clearly showing more than 400 non-violent people. You can cherry-pick the one guy with the megaphone talking about Lucifer and then, hey, you're right!

Boggles

francogarbanzo wrote: »

You have a template through which to understand a subject and you don't need to change your mind, even when presented with evidence which contradicts it.

I watched the video, bunch of people screaming abuse at guards and 2 anti vax "speeches".

The evidence you presented completely confirms what the Commissioner stated.

How are you struggling with this?

francogarbanzo

Boggles wrote: »

I watched the video, bunch of people screaming abuse at guards and 2 anti vax "speeches".

The evidence you presented completely confirms what the Commissioner stated.

How are you struggling with this?

That's alright man. I don't want to change your mind. I just want to make sure the alternate view is presented and we don't gaslight people into thinking this protest was something it wasn't (i.e. 400 or fewer violent conspiracy theorists). People can watch the streams and form their own opinions.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Why would the 11.8% mortality figure come into it, though?

I mean, if you account for the entire population as you do, then the mortality rate is 0.5%.

But if everyone were to contract it, the risk of death would be 11.8%?

I understand that you say this doesn't happen in an epidemic, but surely the 11.8% individual mortality risk is more accurate?

That risk only applies if you have contracted covid.
There is a good chance you won't contract covid.
As I said before, its like comparing risk of a car killing you, and the risk of car killing you given you have been hit by a car.

Risk of death from ebola is like 50%. But the risk it poses to majority of us is very low since its not easily transmissible.

Deleted User wrote: »

The pandemic is ongoing. More people will die. Therefore the 0.5% is a measure of the deaths so far. Extrapolating this rate for the population assumes no one else gets it.

The 0.5% is good because it allows us to compare at this moment in time against other countries with other restrictions. Such as countries with less restrictions, but a similar death rate for over 65s.

Obviously its not clear if it will be the same at the end - nobody can know that unless you are a clairvoyant.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

From these figures you can then assume that if you are over 65 in Ireland you have a 0.54% chance of dying from covid 19 and if you are under 65 you have a 0.008% chance of dying from covid 19

No. If you're over 65 you have a 0.54% chance of having died with Covid 19, which is a different proposition that doesn't account for future infections.

It's disingenuous to say that the current death rate across the whole demographic applies.

It's also disingenuous to ignore the "with not from" issue and assume an 11+% IFR going forward, given the likely levels of asymptomatic/undetected infection in the demographic and the improvements in treatment since the early days.

Boggles

francogarbanzo wrote: »

That's alright man. I don't want to change your mind. I just want to make sure the alternate view is presented and we don't gaslight people into thinking this protest was something it wasn't (i.e. 400 or fewer violent conspiracy theorists). People can watch the streams and form their own opinions.

You haven't which is the point.

You have confirmed the view of Commissioner Harris with the "evidence" you linked to.

Quantum Baloney

One thing is for sure there are some absolute babes at these protests. Granted it is mostly men, but you can see in the videos some very fine looking young women marching too. I saw the same thing with my own eyes at a protest in Cork before Christmas. Maybe independently minded women tend to have better genetics.

Hellrazer

Deleted User wrote: »

Again, once more, slowly this time. 0.5% of the over 65s have died from Covid. This is a cumulative measure, not a relative measure. It will keep increasing until there are no more deaths from covid.

No need to be so condescending - Ive been very civil with you in this discussion and Id appreciate the same.

Regardless whether its a cumulative measure or not the 0.5% will more than likely stay at that rate.Unless with come across a variant that kills 10% of the population and then we`re rightly ****ed.


Id say the death rate will probably drop off and hit a peak of around 4700- 4800 total deaths with still the 92% of over 65s dying from it keeping us around that 0.5-0.6% death rate.

See theres 2 separate ways you can calculate death rate - either by deaths in confirmed case or deaths per population.

Deaths by confirmed cases is really not a good indicator because you can have no symptoms.

So I think we`ll have to agree to disagree as we`re getting nowhere.

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1366352250302513156?s=20

I can't see the Irish government keeping a travel ban on within the EU this year, maybe further afield yes, but not EU, EEA or UK.

francogarbanzo

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1366352250302513156?s=20

I can't see the Irish government keeping a travel ban on within the EU this year, maybe further afield yes, but not EU, EEA or UK.

Remember when this was a conspiracy theory?

Hector Savage

I see the Brazil variant in the UK is "concerning" ...

Remember , the next few weeks are "crucial" ... we are at "a turning point" or is it a "crossroads" ?

Hold firm, "we are all in this together" ...



F*ck me it's getting old ..

dublin_paul

francogarbanzo wrote: »

Remember when this was a conspiracy theory?

Vaccination passports are nothing new