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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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  • #7352
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    I'll be accused of monging doom for this, but I'm learning to live with the insults.
    If you can't get your head around why restrictions are so tight, then this is for you.
    Though in saying that I'm not sure this is widely understood, regardless of where you stand on restrictions.

    Below is a chart of our daily cases (light blue).
    The dark blue bars indicate the percentage of cases that are made up of the B.1.1.7 variant from the UK.
    The percentage is taken from what NPHET have told us from their genomic sequencing tests. The UK variant makes up 90% of positive tests as of yesterday.

    It's pretty clear that, as expected, we are crushing the old strain.
    We did it in Oct/Nov with lighter restrictions so it's no surprise.

    The same can't be said for the new variant. It's a much more resilient infection.

    544106.png


  • #7353
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I'll be accused of monging doom for this, but I'm learning to live with the insults.
    If you can't get your head around why restrictions are so tight, then this is for you.
    Though in saying that I'm not sure this is widely understood, regardless of where you stand on restrictions.

    Below is a chart of our daily cases (light blue).
    The dark blue bars indicate the percentage of cases that are made up of the B.1.1.7 variant from the UK.
    The percentage is taken from what NPHET have told us from their genomic sequencing tests. The UK variant makes up 90% of positive tests as of yesterday.

    It's pretty clear that, as expected, we are crushing the old strain.
    We did it in Oct/Nov with lighter restrictions so it's no surprise.

    The same can't be said for the new variant. It's a much more resilient infection.

    544106.png

    Seriously?


  • #7354
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    robbiezero wrote: »
    I'd imagine similar to before the pandemic. A lot less people visiting.

    What? I'd be careful with that imagination of yours, your logic is flawed and doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.

    Currently the beaches and parks are packed.
    That's while those outside the 5km zone aren't allowed visit
    So if we open up the 5km zone, you think the numbers are going to fall off a cliff?
    Do you honestly think there are more within the zone that will travel further afield than there are who are outside it now and would jump at the chance to go to the beach and/or the best park on the Northside?

    A couple of observations on this, as I live close by and have been visiting both St Annes and Dollyer for years:
    There weren't 'a lot less' people vising either spot before the pandemic.
    At certain times, yes, there's an increase in footfall, but the park especially is a shadow of itself at times
    Especially at the weekends when the red stables were open fully and the market stalls were trading.
    They even had Kodaline play a gig there in 2019 FFS, the Supervalu in Killester had to ban concert traffic from parking there the place was so busy.
    Never mind the pitch n putt being closed, no more parkrun events, fewer people at the RC car race track etc.


  • #7355
    I regurgitate the news
    Closed Accounts Posts: 140 ✭✭I regurgitate the news


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Who are they?

    Those that have ignored the rules and regulations are the same people that have perpetuated this crisis. Not Government, not posters here defending the rules.

    If everyone had actually behaved instead of "knowing better" this would be essentially over.


    Why do you think this? There is zero basis for saying this.

    Compare lockdown versus non lockdown states in the US.....The deaths are worse in the lockdown but in general there is little difference.

    Would you be chastising people in countries with no welfare exists if they went out to work to make sure their family didn't starve?

    Eventually what will happen and is starting to happen is people will ignore the rules when the financial pain becomes worse than the perceived threat from the television which is bombarding us daily.


  • #7356
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ninebeanrows wrote: »
    Seriously?

    depends on your tone

    I can't tell if you're looking for more detail, or just acting like a teenager


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  • #7357
    Coybig_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭Coybig_


    gozunda wrote: »
    All that and the US is in the top 10 countries with the number of deaths (per million) in the world.

    But God forbid 'restrictions' like :rolleyes:

    Due to having more vulnerable people than any other country in the world through percentage of population classified as obese.


  • #7358
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    You’re not wrong, but that’s not the point I was making, and not what was being discussed.
    @Sweetmaggie was called a liar (twice) for saying New York is open for business.
    She’s not lying, the majority of industries and services are open over there. They do have a lot more normality and our approach is a lot more heavy handed than theirs is. These are all facts.

    The comparison isn't like for like, though. They probably have state of the art hospitals with a higher ICU capability. There are almost 20 million people in NY alone. Not comparable to here on so many levels.


  • #7359
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    Due to having more vulnerable people than any other country in the world through percentage of population classified as obese.

    Point that finger right back at ourselves. We have shocking obesity rates and unhealthy behaviour in our own country. Have you a link saying the US has more vulnerable people, when adjusted for population size?


  • #7360
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,840 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Deleted User wrote: »
    What? I'd be careful with that imagination of yours, your logic is flawed and doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.

    Currently the beaches and parks are packed.
    That's while those outside the 5km zone aren't allowed visit
    So if we open up the 5km zone, you think the numbers are going to fall off a cliff?
    Do you honestly think there are more within the zone that will travel further afield than there are who are outside it now and would jump at the chance to go to the beach and/or the best park on the Northside?

    A couple of observations on this, as I live close by and have been visiting both St Annes and Dollyer for years:
    There weren't 'a lot less' people vising either spot before the pandemic.
    At certain times, yes, there's an increase in footfall, but the park especially is a shadow of itself at times
    Especially at the weekends when the red stables were open fully and the market stalls were trading.
    They even had Kodaline play a gig there in 2019 FFS, the Supervalu in Killester had to ban concert traffic from parking there the place was so busy.
    Never mind the pitch n putt being closed, no more parkrun events, fewer people at the RC car race track etc.

    Go to the park now and take a run down the main avenue and tell me thats your normal Thursday afternoon crowd and yes I know schools are off etc, but its the same at weekends. From morning to night, far bigger crowds that normal for February even without markets or parkrun

    If we get decent weather at the weekend, the park will be mobbed as it was most of last summer during travel restrictions, far more than I have ever seen it. Normally the area around the red stables is full of picnickers, last summer there were people scattered all over the park picnicking in the middle of pitches etc. In 20 years of being beside it, I have never seen the likes.

    I have no idea what point you are trying to make about a Kodaline concert in the park, but I think that might be a bit of an outlier in terms of trying to compare crowds.

    You could probably safely open the markets again if the 5km restriction wasn't in place, but because of it they were absolutely flooded with people.


  • #7361
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I'll be accused of monging doom for this, but I'm learning to live with the insults.
    If you can't get your head around why restrictions are so tight, then this is for you.
    Though in saying that I'm not sure this is widely understood, regardless of where you stand on restrictions.
    It's clever Tony, I'll give you that.

    But it's doesn't say, "we are only beating the old strain". The new variant's percentage share is increasing because it's a dominant strain, not because the old strain is being beaten by restrictions.

    Chart the % share of the new variant over time. Even just eyeballing your graph, you can see the % share of the new variant is increasing well before any restrictions kick in.

    This tells us that the increase in share is because the strain is dominant.

    You might be right that it'll be harder to reduce. I'm skeptical of Dr. Glynn's claim we can make 200 cases/day by mid-March. But the claim that we are not beating it back isn't substantiated by your graph.


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  • #7362
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    Point that finger right back at ourselves. We have shocking obesity rates and unhealthy behaviour in our own country. Have you a link saying the US has more vulnerable people, when adjusted for population size?



    Ireland 25.3% ranked 51st
    USA 36.2% ranked 12th (almost all small Polynesian states ahead of them)


  • #7363
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    seamus wrote: »
    Right.
    I'm not sure what your point is though.

    The figure of 66, is the number of vaccinations reported as having been inserted into someone's arm.

    This doesn't mean that the HSE have only delivered 66 doses to GPs. And it's quite likely the number is larger than 66, but the GPs have simply not reported in yet.
    Pretty much the same as you, if from the perspective of the 12,000 shots planned for the week! Not that interested in the vaccination data personally. Apart from seeing it as good in that we're using up what we get, I am more interested in the plans for the week and how much we are ramping up.


  • #7364
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    Due to having more vulnerable people than any other country in the world through percentage of population classified as obese.


    Source?


  • #7365
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    The comparison isn't like for like, though. They probably have state of the art hospitals with a higher ICU capability. There are almost 20 million people in NY alone. Not comparable to here on so many levels.

    Again, you’re arguing against points I never even made. Another user was repeatedly called a liar for stating New York was open for business, but they aren’t lying because most industries and services are in fact open over there.
    I have zero interest in getting into a back and forth about the US response to the virus.


  • #7366
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    seamus wrote: »
    It's clever Tony, I'll give you that.

    But it's doesn't say, "we are only beating the old strain". The new variant's percentage share is increasing because it's a dominant strain, not because the old strain is being beaten by restrictions.

    I'm not sure I follow. To me it would obviously be a bit of both. Lockdown reduces the opportunity for the old variant to spread, as does the new variant infecting people before covid classic gets a chance.
    As to which is the bigger factor, I've no idea.
    seamus wrote: »
    Chart the % share of the new variant over time. Even just eyeballing your graph, you can see the % share of the new variant is increasing well before any restrictions kick in.

    This tells us that the increase in share is because the strain is dominant.

    I should probably add that I've only used 4 key dates to populate this, and used excel to fill in the blanks. So the rate of growth seen here is linear and just a broad approximation. Though probably not far from reality.
    seamus wrote: »
    You might be right that it'll be harder to reduce. I'm skeptical of Dr. Glynn's claim we can make 200 cases/day by mid-March. But the claim that we are not beating it back isn't substantiated by your graph.


    I should probably recreate it with swabs as they're less distorted by the IT fiasco.
    But you're right, it is slowly being beaten down, just not at the rate we perceive when looking at daily case numbers.


  • #7367
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    The comparison isn't like for like, though. They probably have state of the art hospitals with a higher ICU capability. There are almost 20 million people in NY alone. Not comparable to here on so many levels.

    Normal ICU beds capacity is 300 and they managed to get surge capacity to 1000 beds. I don’t know what NY you have been to, but the one I have lived in and visited has a very different side of things when it comes to healthcare and importantly access to health care for less well off people.

    This article is quite interesting. NY Times has also many articles on their health care capacity.

    https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/clinical-care/coronavirus-how-new-york-citys-public-healthcare-system-managed-epic-patient-surge


  • #7368
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Speaking of hospitals, now 771 and 151 in ICU.


  • #7369
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    I regurgitate the news wrote: »
    Would you be chastising people in countries with no welfare exists if they went out to work to make sure their family didn't starve?

    Eventually what will happen and is starting to happen is people will ignore the rules when the financial pain becomes worse than the perceived threat from the television which is bombarding us daily.
    The financial pain is to come, and there will be no getting away from it.
    We are shuddering from one financial crisis to the next with each progressively indebting us.


  • #7370
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    Ireland 25.3% ranked 51st
    USA 36.2% ranked 12th (almost all small Polynesian states ahead of them)

    From Irishheart.ie

    "Overall, 68% of adult men and 53% of adult women were overweight or obese. Measurements were repeated in 201713 and 39% were overweight and 23% were obese. Overall, 70% of adult men and 53% of adult women were overweight or obese."


  • #7371
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    Again, you’re arguing against points I never even made. Another user was repeatedly called a liar for stating New York was open for business, but they aren’t lying because most industries and services are in fact open over there.
    I have zero interest in getting into a back and forth about the US response to the virus.

    But you said this, which is what I responded to:
    They do have a lot more normality and our approach is a lot more heavy handed than theirs is. These are all facts.


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  • #7372
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,045 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    robbiezero wrote: »
    Go to the park now and take a run down the main avenue and tell me thats your normal Thursday afternoon crowd and yes I know schools are off etc, but its the same at weekends. From morning to night, far bigger crowds that normal for February even without markets or parkrun

    If we get decent weather at the weekend, the park will be mobbed as it was most of last summer during travel restrictions, far more than I have ever seen it. Normally the area around the red stables is full of picnickers, last summer there were people scattered all over the park picnicking in the middle of pitches etc. In 20 years of being beside it, I have never seen the likes.

    I have no idea what point you are trying to make about a Kodaline concert in the park, but I think that might be a bit of an outlier in terms of trying to compare crowds.

    You could probably safely open the markets again if the 5km restriction wasn't in place, but because of it they were absolutely flooded with people.

    I've already acknowledged that there is an increase in footfall, partly due to kids being off and partly due to more people being at home during the week. But mostly because there's not much else to do.

    This week is an outlier, as last week was so bad, weather-wise, that people are dying to get out for a bit of fresh air.

    You were trying to make the point that opening the 5km restrictions would bring it back to pre-pandemic levels. You are mistaken......if everybody from Ballymun, Glasnevin, Drumcondra, Santry and further afield were allowed to visit the park and the beach all of a sudden, the numbers would increase. Not decrease.

    Why do you imagine there would be a lot less visiting?


  • #7373
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    From Irishheart.ie

    "Overall, 68% of adult men and 53% of adult women were overweight or obese. Measurements were repeated in 201713 and 39% were overweight and 23% were obese. Overall, 70% of adult men and 53% of adult women were overweight or obese."

    Ireland having a problem does not mean the problem in the US is not significantly worse. 50% worse according to the data


  • #7374
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Ireland having a problem does not mean the problem in the US is not significantly worse. 50% worse according to the data

    Maybe that's true, I'm just saying we're in a very similar boat. So what does it really matter where we rate in the world when our own stats reflect we're not doing great health wise and the implications that has.


  • #7375
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    seamus wrote: »
    It's clever Tony, I'll give you that.

    But it's doesn't say, "we are only beating the old strain". The new variant's percentage share is increasing because it's a dominant strain, not because the old strain is being beaten by restrictions.

    Chart the % share of the new variant over time. Even just eyeballing your graph, you can see the % share of the new variant is increasing well before any restrictions kick in.

    This tells us that the increase in share is because the strain is dominant.

    You might be right that it'll be harder to reduce. I'm skeptical of Dr. Glynn's claim we can make 200 cases/day by mid-March. But the claim that we are not beating it back isn't substantiated by your graph.

    If you want to feck around with this stuff, here are the dates and percentages I'm using (via news sources, via NPHET).

    Dec 20th 8.6%
    Jan 3rd 24.9%
    Feb 4th 75%
    Feb 17th 90%

    Here's the same thing, but using swabs instead

    544111.png


    And a close-up of the last 30 days.

    544112.png


  • #7376
    PmMeUrDogs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭PmMeUrDogs


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Weren't they right to be? Remember this all started from single digit cases

    "Hugely concerned" becomes far less believable when it's trotted out at every single stage of the pandemic, similar to the "next two weeks are crucial" bull


  • #7377
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    If you want to feck around with this stuff, here are the dates and percentages I'm using (via news sources, via NPHET).

    Dec 20th 8.6%
    Jan 3rd 24.9%
    Feb 4th 75%
    Feb 17th 90%

    Here's the same thing, but using swabs instead

    544111.png


    And a close-up of the last 30 days.

    544112.png

    So the data is interpolated rather than real?


  • #7378
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Deleted User wrote: »
    So the data is interpolated rather than real?

    Four of the days on that chart are "real". You can see the dates listed above.
    The last day on the chart is using "real" data, so I'm not extrapolating into the future.

    I'm filling in the gaps in the past, assuming gradual growth rather than massive jumps.
    It would not of course be 100% accurate but broadly paints a good picture of what's been going on in the background.

    I assume this passes the Raind test?


  • #7379
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    Maybe that's true, I'm just saying we're in a very similar boat. So what does it really matter where we rate in the world when our own stats reflect we're not doing great health wise and the implications that has.

    I think the point relevant to the original conservation on holding up places like New York having less restrictions than us - as a model to follow - makes no sense whatsoever..


  • #7380
    Mark1916
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Mark1916


    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1362408577584005131?s=21


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  • #7381
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Stateofyou wrote: »
    Point that finger right back at ourselves. We have shocking obesity rates and unhealthy behaviour in our own country. Have you a link saying the US has more vulnerable people, when adjusted for population size?

    Obesity as an underlying condition is defined as a BMI > 40.

    2% of Covid deaths fall into this bracket, we do not need to vaccinate everybody classed as obese to cover those classed as vulnerable.

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf


This discussion has been closed.
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