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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6692
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    I'm no statistician but I'm guessing those that work for the govt are possibly suggesting that estimates would still see our healthcare system overrun by people who aren't high risk (of dying I assume?) still getting very sick. Plus I think there's 2 sides to try and balance ethically, people's livelihoods and sanity over a summer and letting more people get sick and die from a dangerous disease we have a vaccine rolling out for which would hopefully be complete just a few months later. I don't think arguing either side is inherently wrong.

    Except that does not follow the science - the vast majority of people under 65 who get this virus do not get very sick and it will not over run the health service.

    I can understand the fear that the virus will mutate if let go wild and that is why some restrictions will still be needed until most of the adult population is vaccinated. But not to the extent that people cannot enjoy a reasonably normal summer.


  • #6693
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,544 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Except that does not follow the science - the vast majority of people under 65 who get this virus do not get very sick and it will not over run the health service.

    I can understand the fear that the virus will mutate if let go wild and that is why some restrictions will still be needed until most of the adult population is vaccinated. But not to the extent that people cannot enjoy a reasonably normal summer.

    The under 65's account for 50% of all hospitalisations and ICU admissions, so they can over run the health service.


  • #6694
    newmember2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭newmember2


    Turtwig wrote: »
    I'm going to cheat here a little:
    If everyone is vaccinated there is almost nobody for the virus to infect to the point of requiring health care. Prevention of transmission becomes a bit moot...

    I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.


  • #6695
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    newmember? wrote: »
    I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.

    Not really. The attack rate of asymptomatic infection is considerably less than symptomatic. It can't mutate if it can't spread.


  • #6696
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,598 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    newmember? wrote: »
    I don't think you can really say this. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccination is not 100% effective. The virus continues to transmit and reproduce, possibly mutating also, infecting and affecting that percentage not defended by the vaccine. At the same time society has opened up and vaccinated people are transmitting virus like asymptomatics. The virus is reproducing freely and uncontrollably.

    The virus will only propagate with an R0 of under 1 though.

    I think I see what you mean. But I'm hoping vaccination will still reduce R0 to under 1?


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  • #6697
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,140 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Did I dream it or did I read somewhere earlier that Denmark is top dog re Delivery of vaccines.
    There are in Eu
    They have a similar population to ourselves. Maybe I dreamt it.

    Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

    Anyway, I think it is a command and control thing now. Slowly, slowly or the whole country will go bananas in a weekend. Which could happen too lol


  • #6698
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,598 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Hardyn wrote: »
    Not really. The attack rate of asymptomatic infection is considerably less than symptomatic.

    Do you mean Reproduction rate (R) rather than attack rate? I'm not aware that asymptomatic people spread the virus less than those with symptoms?


  • #6699
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Do you mean Reproduction rate (R) rather than attack rate? I'm not aware that asymptomatic people spread the virus less than those with symptoms?

    Nope. I meant attack rate. Asymptomatic infections (n.b. NOT presymptomatic) are much less likely to spread the virus.


  • #6700
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,598 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Hardyn wrote: »
    Nope. I meant attack rate. Asymptomatic infections (n.b. NOT presymptomatic) are much less likely to spread the virus.

    Good to hear that asymp do not transmit as much virus to others. One of the infuriating things I find in reports was the lack of discrimination between true asymp and those just pre symptoms.

    My understanding of attack rate is the percentage of a population that is infected by a pathogen over time, I could very well be wrong!


  • #6701
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,945 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    IF everyone is vaccinated by September ( being optimistic ), is it not the end of this thing then? How would it spread or affect our population?


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  • #6702
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,061 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »

    Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

    No, supply and demand is affecting the rollout.

    It's difficult to fathom how anyone could point to unions as the root cause of any vaccination issues at the moment.


  • #6703
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,733 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Exactly. You need to be open in June. People need the summer months open. All the high risk groups SHOULD be vaccinated by then. And with seasonality effecting the virus its not going to get any better in the Autumn. I really really dont get waiting for September.

    If we have enough of the population vaccinated by September then why do the Autumn and Winter months matter?


  • #6704
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,315 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Did I dream it or did I read somewhere earlier that Denmark is top dog re Delivery of vaccines.
    There are in Eu
    They have a similar population to ourselves. Maybe I dreamt it.

    Would Union and H and S issues be affecting our rollout?

    Anyway, I think it is a command and control thing now. Slowly, slowly or the whole country will go bananas in a weekend. Which could happen too lol

    Nothing to do with unions :)
    It is completely down to logistics of reorganising the nRNA vaccines for older age groups following the decision that over 65s were not optimally served by AZ vaccine.
    This would have been much simpler to organise for those less mobile of course.
    Also they are going as fast as supply.
    H and S would of course be very important in administering any drug to the population.


  • #6705
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,597 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.


  • #6706
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,597 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    I gave a couple of days on a trolley last year, I was well treated, if I had to pick a problem it was that women were alongside me, I felt it was more difficult for them and there were plenty of options for the staff to separate us rather than making them feel uncomfortable.


  • #6707
    theballz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,272 ✭✭✭theballz


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

    The health service is less over run? Where are you reading this?

    It is not normal for the state to have over 100 people in ICU. Right now we have 158 confirmed cases.

    You are miles off.


  • #6708
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    The under 65's account for 50% of all hospitalisations and ICU admissions, so they can over run the health service.

    That is not true. The under 65’s do not account for 50% of hospitalisations.


  • #6709
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

    Not sure how you came to that conclusion. The health service was under insane strain.

    Given that reserve icu is kept for elective procedures and peace time icu is almost entirely full with cover cases I really doubt it.

    Veradkar recently said we won't open up significantly until icu numbers are below 50. I think he is right there.


  • #6710
    SnuggyBear
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    Kunta Kinte wrote: »
    Anyone who might run the risk of being fined better have deep pockets.

    Tell them sorry guard im out for a drive to clear the head and they will send you on your way.


  • #6711
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,300 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

    Easy knowing you don't work in the health service. They are under serious and sustained pressure. Step in to the real world for a while.


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  • #6712
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,345 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    So the health service has been less overrun than recent years thankfully, the health service has been vaccinated which was a big source of infection, I presume elective surgery is back on? Open the country up, mm would want to wake up from his shamrock daze, if restaurants etc are closed open up.

    Why do people still believe Jim Corr?


  • #6713
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,762 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    Still over 90% of vaccines in arms



    That doesn't mean lagging, unless you want fully staffed offices so you can complain about taxes being wasted
    The UK took the decision to ensure no one has to travel more than 10 miles for a vaccine. What's the basis of the planning for the paltry few Irish centers? My GP is over 10 miles away, and the closest proposed vaccine center over 100.

    I'd gladly pay tax to ensure more centers. Without a doubt. And, I'd start them now, as it takes forever for the HSE to get around to building them. Further, the UK built their centers before they had vaccine. Why can't Ireland do that?

    Not a shred of evidence to back that up.
    Local GP wrote an article recently about receiving a call late at night to come to another town over 100 miles away for a vaccine as they were to expire. This was before the AZ vaccine. So, some evidence for you that the vaccine rollout is a mess. Plus, trusting data from the HSE is iffy, CervicalCheck anyone? Ensuring accurate reporting has never been their strong suit.

    Another problem should a huge number of vaccines show up, what's the state of the HSE IT systems? Everyone getting through to make their appointments post-haste? Took them weeks to set up the IT system for contact tracing - are they asking for that anymore anyway? Oh, and capacity wise, whenever they're flooded, their answer is STOP! Like the Xmas outbreak that led them to tell people not to come in for tests. Couldn't keep up; under-capacity as always. HSE prefers it this way. Why haven't they doubled the ICU capacity in the 1 year plus that's passed since Covid first broke out?
    The centres that are needed are in use.



    Good thing we're getting the vaccines in arms with maximum efficiency and absolute minimum waste then.

    Let's see how they do this week when supposedly 250,000 people will be vaccinated.


  • #6714
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hospitals are 849 and 155 in ICU this morning.


  • #6715
    big syke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 903 ✭✭✭big syke


    theballz wrote: »
    ?

    It is not normal for the state to have over 100 people in ICU. Right now we have 158 confirmed cases.

    You are miles off.

    In fairness we constantly are close to capacity almost 90% so well above 100 is normal.

    http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/noca-uploads/general/Irish_National_ICU_Audit_Annual_Report_2018_FINAL.pdf


  • #6716
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Igotadose wrote: »
    The UK took the decision to ensure no one has to travel more than 10 miles for a vaccine. What's the basis of the planning for the paltry few Irish centers?

    I bet if you go to the highlands in Scotland there is someone who is more than 10 miles from a vaccination center. This is a clue to the answer to your question, see if you can now figure it out yourself.


  • #6717
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Have always gotten confused when busy hospitals are given as a reason to lock down here.

    I must have dreamt every winter when hundreds of people were on trolleys in corridors


  • #6718
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 232 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    I bet if you go to the highlands in Scotland there is someone who is more than 10 miles from a vaccination center. This is a clue to the answer to your question, see if you can now figure it out yourself.

    In fact, Scotland is using mobile vaccination centres for remote Highland areas.
    MattS1 wrote: »
    IF everyone is vaccinated by September ( being optimistic ), is it not the end of this thing then? How would it spread or affect our population?

    As soon as everyone gets vaccinated, the goalposts will be shifted again.

    The Government has reneged on every single milestone for reopening and there is no reason to believe that a Taoiseach who will never have to face the electorate again will suddenly become any less authoritarian that he has hitherto been.


  • #6719
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    big syke wrote: »
    In fairness we constantly are close to capacity almost 90% so well above 100 is normal.

    http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/noca-uploads/general/Irish_National_ICU_Audit_Annual_Report_2018_FINAL.pdf

    Did you just try to make a point with a 156 page pdf?

    What was your point?


  • #6720
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,040 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Have always gotten confused when busy hospitals are given as a reason to lock down here.

    I must have dreamt every winter when hundreds of people were on trolleys in corridors
    Because we don't want that to become hundreds of people on trolleys in the hospital car park.


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  • #6721
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    theballz wrote: »
    The health service is less over run? Where are you reading this?

    It is not normal for the state to have over 100 people in ICU. Right now we have 158 confirmed cases.

    You are miles off.

    Is it not..?


This discussion has been closed.
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