Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 05:03PM

Anyone got stats on chasers who diverted back to the Stayers and actually did well, especially with no prep race over hurdles?

Bob's Worth comes to mind but he ran over hurdles a few times before his 3rd in the Stayers. And he's a freak stayer anyway.

Kemboy's a fine horse but I don't think Cheltenham is his gig, especially a race like the Stayers.

Dr. Bre · 10-02-2021 05:16PM

What about clan des obeaux for gold cup or has that ship sailed ?

Labaik · 10-02-2021 05:19PM

Slattsy wrote: »

I've gone through the Supreme and i cannot see a horse that beats Appreciate It. Like so many of Mullins' he'll wind it up early, grind it out from the front and outstay everything.

Ballyadam will give him a better race come March than he did last weekend.

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 05:21PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

What about clan des obeaux for gold cup or has that ship sailed ?

I'd love love love if they threw him in the Ryanair. Think Nicholls said last year it'd be unlikely he'd ever run at Cheltenham again though.

Labaik · 10-02-2021 05:21PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

What about clan des obeaux for gold cup or has that ship sailed ?

He's Silviniaco Conti the 2nd.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 05:36PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

What about clan des obeaux for gold cup or has that ship sailed ?

Coneygree wrote: »

I'd love love love if they threw him in the Ryanair. Think Nicholls said last year it'd be unlikely he'd ever run at Cheltenham again though.

Labaik wrote: »

He's Silviniaco Conti the 2nd.

Scratched from the GC today, Nicholls has said Aintree is the plan

Labaik · 10-02-2021 05:41PM

Frodon probably the most under rated horse in training, cant recall a King George winner coming straight into a Gold Cup at 14/1.

Plasandrunt · 10-02-2021 05:44PM

CDO has no Cheltenham entries, runs in the Denman chase this weekend and with Champ having his first run of the season and LIT being nursed into the festival. 13/8 is a huge price imo

Plasandrunt · 10-02-2021 05:46PM

also lads anyone with a skybet account. That have started pricing up place betting already for Cheltenham. Go to the particular race and scroll down to the end of the page and the place only option should be there. Could be handy for those races which will cut up

NaiveMelodies · 10-02-2021 05:47PM

Mighty Blue is ticking lots of boxes for me in the Martin Pipe and I'd be happy to label her under the plot category if that's ok with everyone.
Perfectly placed by JOB to date and it looks like be getting in towards the lower end of the weights. Will relish the step up in trip.
20s NRNB and 25s Antepost.
She also holds an entry in the Mares Novice and I wouldn't rule her out of that either.

Earendil · 10-02-2021 05:52PM

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Mighty Blue is ticking lots of boxes for me in the Martin Pipe and I'd be happy to label her under the plot category if that's ok with everyone.
Perfectly placed by JOB to date and it looks like be getting in towards the lower end of the weights. Will relish the step up in trip.
20s NRNB and 25s Antepost.
She also holds an entry in the Mares Novice and I wouldn't rule her out of that either.

Have been watching her. Good engine but she jumped pretty poorly Monday I thought. Not sure her mark will have much smoozin in it either.

IAMAMORON · 10-02-2021 07:47PM

Pogue eile wrote: »

Is it, not a fact I ever heard? Is this specific to the festival?

No, across the board.

Otherwise the bookies couldn't function. Think about it before you look it up.

If the bookies are losing 2 out of every 3 odds on bets they are turning a loss. It only functions the other way around. They have to be winning 2 out of every 3 odds on bets.

Basic Game Theory - extrapolated.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 07:49PM

IAMAMORON wrote: »

No, across the board.

Otherwise the bookies couldn't function. Think about it before you look it up.

If the bookies are losing 2 out of every 3 odds on bets they are turning a loss. It only functions the other way around. They have to be winning 2 out of every 3 odds on bets.

Basic Game Theory - extrapolated.

Surely you are taking the pi*s??

IAMAMORON · 10-02-2021 08:10PM

Pogue eile wrote: »

Surely you are taking the pi*s??

No, I am not, it is basic maths.

If a bookie takes only odds on bets....

And it loses 2 out of 3 of them...

It goes broke.

It has to win 2 out of every 3 odds on bets it lays.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 08:12PM

IAMAMORON wrote: »

No, I am not, it is basic maths.

If a bookie takes only odds on bets....

And it loses 2 out of 3 of them...

It goes broke.

It has to win 2 out of every 3 odds on bets it lays.

Wow

you never cease to amaze me!

del roy · 10-02-2021 09:20PM

Plasandrunt wrote: »

also lads anyone with a skybet account. That have started pricing up place betting already for Cheltenham. Go to the particular race and scroll down to the end of the page and the place only option should be there. Could be handy for those races which will cut up

WILL THERE BE RULE 4s or is it non runner no bet

thanks for the heads up

Motivator · 10-02-2021 09:41PM

Pogue eile wrote: »

I know one or two lads who have a share in him and either they are lying to me or they genuinely don't know, I spoke with one of them on Sunday evening and he said he didnt think he would go to the festival at all.

All of the above of course comes with the cavaet that we are talking about Willie Mullins and he probably doesn't even know himself. Mullins can be frustrating from a punting perspective but he is dead right, all plans are fluid and he wont make a decision today that can be made in 4 weeks time!

With regards to Kemboy and the stayers, obviously you would want to be NRNB but that aside its a pretty strong renewal so what price would be be on the day if he turned up, not for me on a course he clearly isn't at his best on.

It’s just my opinion but I think Willie will keep him for Aintree and/or Punchestown and try and win the Gold Cup with him there. His problems with Cheltenham are fairly well documented and sure who knows that better than the man himself.

abarkie · 10-02-2021 11:26PM

The Mig wrote: »

Can’t open any new accounts for Cheltenham because I’ve no valid ID. I’m sure the father and mother will be interested in 365s generous deposit offer though

What is the generous deposit offer please?

The Mig · 11-02-2021 12:17AM

abarkie wrote: »

What is the generous deposit offer please?

They match your 1st deposit up to €100.

stretchaq · 11-02-2021 01:03AM

The Mig wrote: »

They match your 1st deposit up to €100.

It used to be up to €400

Rabbit Redux · 11-02-2021 01:20AM

Pogue eile wrote: »

I know one or two lads who have a share in him and either they are lying to me or they genuinely don't know, I spoke with one of them on Sunday evening and he said he didnt think he would go to the festival at all.

All of the above of course comes with the cavaet that we are talking about Willie Mullins and he probably doesn't even know himself. Mullins can be frustrating from a punting perspective but he is dead right, all plans are fluid and he wont make a decision today that can be made in 4 weeks time!

I remember hearing Patrick jokingly say in a recent interview that Willie doesn't even know what he's going to have for breakfast, let alone deciding on the longterm or even short-term targets of his horses. Kemboy would be a fascinating runner in the Stayers' Hurdle and would definitely add a bit more spice to the race. Looks nailed on for the 3 mile chase at Aintree though.

finbarrk · 11-02-2021 10:45AM

Can anyone remember when did BET365 go NRNB last year?

Slattsy · 11-02-2021 10:52AM

finbarrk wrote: »

Can anyone remember when did BET365 go NRNB last year?

I'm almost certain it was around this time last year Finbarr. I have it in my head it was about 5 weeks out.

IAMAMORON · 11-02-2021 11:34AM

All I am seeing with bet 365 is € 100 in free bets, is that the offer?

Pogue eile · 11-02-2021 11:43AM

finbarrk wrote: »

Can anyone remember when did BET365 go NRNB last year?

12th of February I have written in my notebook, not sure if that was the actual date or the date I noticed.

I also have a little note beside it, which if they repeat this year will be of interest to a few who have made their mind up on the 5 headline races - B365 were BOG on the big five from 14th February.

realdanbreen · 11-02-2021 12:47PM

Are preview nights taking place in any shape or form?

akelly02 · 11-02-2021 01:21PM

realdanbreen wrote: »

Are preview nights taking place in any shape or form?

highly doubt it this year

Toetohand · 11-02-2021 01:56PM

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

I remember hearing Patrick jokingly say in a recent interview that Willie doesn't even know what he's going to have for breakfast, let alone deciding on the longterm or even short-term targets of his horses. Kemboy would be a fascinating runner in the Stayers' Hurdle and would definitely add a bit more spice to the race. Looks nailed on for the 3 mile chase at Aintree though.

It’s Patricks comments had me thinking the same thing. He has entries for Ryanair, gold cup and Stayers. IF he turned up in stayers on decent ground he’d be a threat. I’m hoping he doesn’t!

Coneygree · 11-02-2021 01:57PM

Probably just the online zoom calls, much like most podcasts are running atm.

However there will definitely be a few sneaky ****ers who will charge admission to the zoom call just so you can ask a question and maybe get a few free bets or get the price enhancements.

Pogue eile · 11-02-2021 01:57PM

blackcard wrote: »

If I got 2/1, I would be lumping it on Britain.

PP 9/2 fill yer boots!

Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

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