Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 12:42am

blackcard wrote: »

Elimay is 4/1 to win, the Mares Novice is 7/1 the field. , Zanahiyd is 11/4 in the triumph, The Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is 10/1 the field, Al Boum Photo is 3/1, Appreciate It is 7/4, Galvin 4/1, Honeysuckle 5/2 so you might expect maybe 2 to 3 of these horses to win

Envoi Allen 5/6 and Monkfish 4/5 so maybe one of these to win. Chacun Du Soir at 10/11, Billaway 7/2Concertista is 7/4, so maybe one of these to win

you have races like the Ultima Chase 10/1 the field, Coral Cup 14/1 the field, Cross Country Chase7/1, Grand Annual 8/1, Maribella 9/1, Kim Muir 8/1 the field, Ryanhair favourite is Allaho at 5/1. Pertemps 8/1 the field, County Hurdle 11/1 the field, Albert Bartlett 9/1 teh field,Martin Pipe 11/1. It is actually freakish the number of handicaps that Ireland have won in the last few years. In many case, an Irish outsider has won but the odds say this won't happen again

You can argue that Ireland have a number of chances in a number o f the Championship races but I would definitely take 2/1 on Britain

Very easy to go through the Irish runners like that, name me the 15 British winners! `

Motivator · 10-02-2021 12:44am

blackcard wrote: »

Elimay is 4/1 to win, the Mares Novice is 7/1 the field. , Zanahiyd is 11/4 in the triumph, The Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is 10/1 the field, Al Boum Photo is 3/1, Appreciate It is 7/4, Galvin 4/1, Honeysuckle 5/2 so you might expect maybe 2 to 3 of these horses to win

Envoi Allen 5/6 and Monkfish 4/5 so maybe one of these to win. Chacun Du Soir at 10/11, Billaway 7/2Concertista is 7/4, so maybe one of these to win

you have races like the Ultima Chase 10/1 the field, Coral Cup 14/1 the field, Cross Country Chase7/1, Grand Annual 8/1, Maribella 9/1, Kim Muir 8/1 the field, Ryanhair favourite is Allaho at 5/1. Pertemps 8/1 the field, County Hurdle 11/1 the field, Albert Bartlett 9/1 teh field,Martin Pipe 11/1. It is actually freakish the number of handicaps that Ireland have won in the last few years. In many case, an Irish outsider has won but the odds say this won't happen again

You can argue that Ireland have a number of chances in a number o f the Championship races but I would definitely take 2/1 on Britain

“The odds say this won’t happen again”?

Every year we think Irish horses are handicapped out of it and every year we’re watching some Irish horses making a mockery of their marks. The trainers know their runners are likely to get a whack in the weights which is why some of them have an absolute tonne in hand going over there.

blackcard · 10-02-2021 12:55am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Very easy to go through the Irish runners like that, name me the 15 British winners! `

I couldn't name the British winners. Granted there will be a lot of Irish Favourites but 6 favourites won in 2017, 7 in 2018 and 8 in 2019, four of which were British. Don't get me wrong, I hope that there will be a load of Irish winners but I think that the odds are against it. A post named out 6 Irish certainties and then listed another 8 favourites as if that was going to be 14 winners and all we had to do was win one of the handicaps. If I got an Accumulator for the 6 Irish certainties, I reckon it would be over 100/1 for the six to win

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 1:22am

blackcard wrote: »

I couldn't name the British winners. Granted there will be a lot of Irish Favourites but 6 favourites won in 2017, 7 in 2018 and 8 in 2019, four of which were British. Don't get me wrong, I hope that there will be a load of Irish winners but I think that the odds are against it. A post named out 6 Irish certainties and then listed another 8 favourites as if that was going to be 14 winners and all we had to do was win one of the handicaps. If I got an Accumulator for the 6 Irish certainties, I reckon it would be over 100/1 for the six to win

That is not the point that was being made in the post :rolleyes:

You havent provided a single reason for Britain to win other than their due!

As I said if you go for it I wish you the best of luck but I can't think of a worse 2/1 shot. If Britain are 2/1 that means Ireland will be 8/15 now that is a bet I would be all over.

Dr. Bre · 10-02-2021 1:51am

Paddy power use to odds on how load the roar from the crowd would be when the first race started ? Any odds this year ? Lol

IAMAMORON · 10-02-2021 9:43am

Blackcard is on the ball in fairness. Lads on here posting about some favourites just having to turn up to win championship races. Not going to happen. For a multitude of reasons. For starters, the best horse in a horse race does not always win it.

2 out of every 3 odds on shots are turned over, that is a fact.

In saying all that I still think Ireland will win more than 14 races. There has to be better 2/1 chances around that week if you looked around. But I don't think anyone can be all that confident that Elliott heads over with a sound string this year? Very iffy stable form generally and for a man that is used to pulling 4-7 winners over the week he is not showing signs of being up to that this year? That might fall into anyone's lap.

I remember the year Menorah beat Dunguib 2 lengths in the supreme. All the bookies' money back specials if Dunguib wins etc. Ever mouth from here to Letterfrack and back telling me he was a banker, festival certainty etc. Menorah hadn't even won his previous race. I could give more examples. We all could.

carq · 10-02-2021 10:15am

Alright lads

Lets start with the basics and get a few winners identified on the main races
Always good to get a winner in this one, bit of money in the pocket.
Always plenty of offers.

Only 5/20 previous winners were favourites.
Any uk runners hiding in the long grass ?

Supreme
Appreciate it 11/8
Metier 6/1
Ballyadam 8/1
Dreal deal 16 / 1
Blue lord 20/1

Currently have blue lord at fancy prices and appreciate it in multiple.

IAMAMORON · 10-02-2021 10:29am

If Metier wins on Saturday he will be 2/1 at best.

Atholl Street
Bareback Jack
Decimation
Fifty Ball
Grumpy Charley
My Drogo
Orbys Legend
Stoners Choice
Zanahiyr

Most of those will have a run between now and the Supreme, but they are all unbeaten British challengers, except of Zanahiyr who probably goes Triumph, but I don't see Elliott having a better Supreme entry? I would not fancy Appreciate at odds on beating him with an extra half stone on his back?

Easy game and that's before any of Closutton's other ones find their coats in the next 5 weeks.

IAMAMORON · 10-02-2021 10:34am

I forgot Guard Your Dreams , entered on Saturday also and in the Supreme.

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 11:27am

Metier gets bet on Saturday and Appreciate It goes odds on!

Motivator · 10-02-2021 11:40am

carq wrote: »

Alright lads

Lets start with the basics and get a few winners identified on the main races
Always good to get a winner in this one, bit of money in the pocket.
Always plenty of offers.

Only 5/20 previous winners were favourites.
Any uk runners hiding in the long grass ?

Supreme
Appreciate it 11/8
Metier 6/1
Ballyadam 8/1
Dreal deal 16 / 1
Blue lord 20/1

Currently have blue lord at fancy prices and appreciate it in multiple.

11/8 is a crazy price for Appreciate It. I didn’t like how he came up the hill last March and the Supreme is always run at a mental pace and is all hustle and bustle, I don’t think that will suit him at all. He’s the class horse in the race, is he a true 11/8 shot? No chance. He will go off bigger on the day anyway, the bookies will take him on.

It will be very interesting to see what way the markets react over the week. There’ll be no £10k win bets on 5/1 shots that Matt Chapman loves shouting about in the ring a few minutes before the off.

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 11:48am

Motivator wrote: »

11/8 is a crazy price for Appreciate It. I didn’t like how he came up the hill last March and the Supreme is always run at a mental pace and is all hustle and bustle, I don’t think that will suit him at all. He’s the class horse in the race, is he a true 11/8 shot? No chance. He will go off bigger on the day anyway, the bookies will take him on.

It will be very interesting to see what way the markets react over the week. There’ll be no £10k win bets on 5/1 shots that Matt Chapman loves shouting about in the ring a few minutes before the off.

His form is as solid as you can get, seriously has to be some of the best novice hurdling form in years.

Added to that, what beats it? Ballyadam should come on again but Appreciate It has beaten him tidily already when he ran well.

Metier is a potential pig in my opinion. He won one of the worst grade 1s ever and went straight to second favourite after winning it. Not having him at all. I'll be shocked if he gets close, absolutely shocked.

Look it, backing Appreciate It for the Ballymore after his first run has stung me bad so I'd be glad to find something that beats him here to help overall profits, but other than Ballyadam who've I've backed long before they met in the same race, I'm finding it hard to find an angle.

Slattsy · 10-02-2021 12:03pm

Metier another english hype job lads

akelly02 · 10-02-2021 12:05pm

ballyadam on better ground would be my each way poke

appreciate while being solid hasnt wowed me, Ballyadam seems a speedier type , who will like the better ground

Gavin "shels" · 10-02-2021 12:24pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Metier another english hype job lads

English in hype job scandal.... :pac: Nothing new!

redzerdrog · 10-02-2021 1:55pm

Some nice trebles and luckys on the go nothing to mad of prices but most of them live chances if they end up in the races.

This is my 'nicest' accum

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 1:59pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Some nice trebles and luckys on the go nothing to mad of prices but most of them live chances if they end up in the races.

This is my 'nicest' accum

Belter of a bet

Motivator · 10-02-2021 2:37pm

Coneygree wrote: »

His form is as solid as you can get, seriously has to be some of the best novice hurdling form in years.

Added to that, what beats it? Ballyadam should come on again but Appreciate It has beaten him tidily already when he ran well.

Metier is a potential pig in my opinion. He won one of the worst grade 1s ever and went straight to second favourite after winning it. Not having him at all. I'll be shocked if he gets close, absolutely shocked.

Look it, backing Appreciate It for the Ballymore after his first run has stung me bad so I'd be glad to find something that beats him here to help overall profits, but other than Ballyadam who've I've backed long before they met in the same race, I'm finding it hard to find an angle.

I agree it’s difficult to find something to beat him at the minute but I think the likely better ground that we’ll see on Day 1 will throw something up. A good few of these have been racing on soft or worse all year so there will definitely be improvers on the day. Also worth noting that Appreciate It has never ran on anything better than soft ground so I think on the day if it comes up good he’s definitely vulnerable, despite being the class animal lining up. He’s not the quickest, he has a high cruising speed but his turn of pace has yet to be seen. He didn’t quicken last year in the helter skelter bumper either.

I’ll gladly take him on at the price and there’s always an angle you just haven’t looked hard enough yet

Slattsy · 10-02-2021 2:44pm

Motivator wrote: »

I agree it’s difficult to find something to beat him at the minute but I think the likely better ground that we’ll see on Day 1 will throw something up. A good few of these have been racing on soft or worse all year so there will definitely be improvers on the day. Also worth noting that Appreciate It has never ran on anything better than soft ground so I think on the day if it comes up good he’s definitely vulnerable, despite being the class animal lining up. He’s not the quickest, he has a high cruising speed but his turn of pace has yet to be seen. He didn’t quicken last year in the helter skelter bumper either.

I’ll gladly take him on at the price and there’s always an angle you just haven’t looked hard enough yet

Ground tends to be softest on the first day. Dont think the ground will beat him. Wont be baking it at 11/8 mind.

maximo31 · 10-02-2021 3:13pm

Having a look at the Mare Hurdle here now. Not a massive amount of enteries compared to the other races already with entries.
Thoughts on The Glancing Queen?
A course winner. Third run at the Festival. Actually ran in 2 Champion Bumpers, 7.25L 5th place to Envoi Allen and an 8th place finish to Ferny Hollow. In between beat Minella Melody in an Aintree bumper. Won a Mares Novice Hurdle at Warwick in November and 2nd & 3rd both won next time out. She followed up with a 3rd to Bravemansgame at Newbury in Dec and most recently won another Mare Novice Hurdle at Bangor by 11 lengths.
Nice few horses at the top of the market will most likely not run here so makes her a decent EW bet.
She is best priced 40/1 with the main bookies but 33/1 NRNB can be got with Sky bet and Paddy Power.
She has 2 enteries this weekend so will take a chance before these races incase the price drops!
I'll have a nibble (not a nobble!) at the 33/1 NRNB.

Stupidly ignored the fact she is still a novice so cashed out bet and backed her in that instead. 14/1 Bet365.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 3:51pm

Not really sold on Appreciate It either, looked all the world to me a 2m4f horse, that said it looks a particularly weak Supreme. Have Soaring Glory and Metier at big prices but couldn't have any great confidence in either right now, Saturday if it goes ahead will tell a lot about both of those.

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 4:02pm

I think Willie feels he's a Ballymore horse too, he seemed as surprised at anyone how well he did at 2m at Christmas. Looks a staying chaser in the making all day. However as Willie basically said at Christmas, they have to go down the 2m route now.

Plasandrunt · 10-02-2021 4:19pm

Cashed out on my Benie Mares Chase bet last night, i think if she does go surely it will be in the Mares hurdle especially with Honeysuckle going CH. Hasn't ran over fences in over 3 years.

Reinvested my money with Shattered Love at 14s. Monster price imo for a former festival winner who has never been beaten by another mare over fences

Earendil · 10-02-2021 4:22pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Some nice trebles and luckys on the go nothing to mad of prices but most of them live chances if they end up in the races.

This is my 'nicest' accum

Hope they all piss in for you Redzer.

In my experience one sod always lets you down :mad:

Slattsy · 10-02-2021 4:27pm

I've gone through the Supreme and i cannot see a horse that beats Appreciate It. Like so many of Mullins' he'll wind it up early, grind it out from the front and outstay everything.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 4:29pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

2 out of every 3 odds on shots are turned over, that is a fact.

Is it, not a fact I ever heard? Is this specific to the festival?

Coneygree · 10-02-2021 4:36pm

Slattsy wrote: »

I've gone through the Supreme and i cannot see a horse that beats Appreciate It. Like so many of Mullins' he'll wind it up early, grind it out from the front and outstay everything.

Yeah, unless I'm missing something, it appears to be the clearest cut Supreme since Douvan.

Toetohand · 10-02-2021 4:45pm

How likely is Kemboy to go in the stayers hurdle? Price seems to be getting pummeled- 25s to 12s.

maximo31 · 10-02-2021 4:55pm

Slattsy wrote: »

I've gone through the Supreme and i cannot see a horse that beats Appreciate It. Like so many of Mullins' he'll wind it up early, grind it out from the front and outstay everything.

Is it just a case of finding something at a big EW price to even place now. Doesn't seem to be much to take on the Fav.
Here's an outsider for you to take a look at ; Uhtred.
Has an entry at Punchestown Sunday. Three previous runs winning two decent bumpers and a 2nd to Front View in a Maiden hurdle. Bit of a lay off to overcome.
40/1 NRNB in the Supreme.
Also has an entry in the Ballymore.

Pogue eile · 10-02-2021 4:58pm

Toetohand wrote: »

How likely is Kemboy to go in the stayers hurdle? Price seems to be getting pummeled- 25s to 12s.

I know one or two lads who have a share in him and either they are lying to me or they genuinely don't know, I spoke with one of them on Sunday evening and he said he didnt think he would go to the festival at all.

All of the above of course comes with the cavaet that we are talking about Willie Mullins and he probably doesn't even know himself. Mullins can be frustrating from a punting perspective but he is dead right, all plans are fluid and he wont make a decision today that can be made in 4 weeks time!

With regards to Kemboy and the stayers, obviously you would want to be NRNB but that aside its a pretty strong renewal so what price would be be on the day if he turned up, not for me on a course he clearly isn't at his best on.

Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

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