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Cheltenham 2021 Antepost
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Pogue eile wrote: »Why
Only 4 winning favourites in the Triumph in the last 15 years. Of the other 11 SP favs, only 3 were even placed. The Triumph is a graveyard for favourites.
Last years winner hadn't even won a race at this stage of her year. She won the Norman Colfer Trial at Fairyhouse.
Pentland Hills hadn't run yet either, his prep was at Plumpton.
Farclas was a maiden
Tiger Roll was a maiden albeit placed in a G1 at Leopardstown 5 weeks previous.
Anyone thinking that Zanahiyr is a certainty is in for a shock. It can win all it likes at 5/2 or 3/1 but the stats say it hasn't a hope.
Paddy Power know that too, hence the specials and doubles.0 -
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If Paddy Power are so wise and they 'know' it won't win then why in the name of god are the limiting the specials, surely they would want all our money? And outside the specials why aren't they best price, shur fcuk it lay it at 5/1 altogether if it has no chance!
I love your random 'stats'; as you call them as well
I could just as easily say that in the last 6 years favourites in the Triumph have a 50% strike rate - would be 67% but for a freak fall- and that based on that logic anything better that evens is stealing money.
Of course that's not how racing, betting and probability work but it would make as much sense as your reasoning.0 -
Pogue eile wrote: »If Paddy Power are so wise and they 'know' it won't win then why in the name of god are the limiting the specials, surely they would want all our money? And outside the specials why aren't they best price, shur fcuk it lay it at 5/1 altogether if it has no chance!
I love your random 'stats'; as you call them as well I could just as easily say that in the last 6 years favourites in the Triumph have a 50% strike rate - would be 67% but for a freak fall- and that based on that logic anything better that evens is stealing money.
Of course that's not how racing, betting and probability work but it would make as much sense as your reasoning.
I know you like to argue.
I am too tired to be honest.
The stats are there. The reality is that only 1 in 3 Triumph hurdle favs in the last 15 years have not even been placed.
If you are foolish enough to assume that the brokers at Paddy Power don't have connections in all the top stables then good luck to you.0 -
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I know you like to argue.
I am too tired to be honest.
The stats are there. The reality is that only 1 in 3 Triumph hurdle favs in the last 15 years have not even been placed.
If you are foolish enough to assume that the brokers at Paddy Power don't have connections in all the top stables then good luck to you.
I don't like to argue, I like to reply to silly posts, but you do seem to make a lot of them!
Have a nap maybe, all your googling 'Triumph Hurdle favourites' must have been taxing!
I have read your third point three times, still not sure what you are trying to say, maybe after your nap you can try again?
Yes, Paddy Power has access to Gordon Elliots yard, they know that he has been having us all away and Zahynir is actually a mule that simply cant win, but just in case, the company which is worth over €8 billion will limit IAMAMORON to 56 quid at 3/1:D
Everyday I think you cant possibly make me laugh anymore than you did the previous day, but you deliver every single day, you are a credit to your profession young man!!
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Flaming
Posts containing personal attacks on another user will be edited/deleted. Attack the post, not the poster. Minor infringements will warrant a warning followed by a ban. Serious infringements and/or intentional flaming will receive an automatic ban.
Pogue eile
If you want to stay around please change your attitude.
It would be helpful if you read the Forum Charter and followed it when posting.
Every one of your five sentences in the above post is flaming. Stop.
This is a warning, and I am posting it so all can read it.
Cheltenham is exciting, but please behave on the forum.
The Tetrarch0 -
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Pogue eile wrote: »I don't like to argue, I like to reply to silly posts, but you do seem to make a lot of them!
Have a nap maybe, all your googling 'Triumph Hurdle favourites' must have been taxing!
I have read your third point three times, still not sure what you are trying to say, maybe after your nap you can try again?
Yes, Paddy Power has access to Gordon Elliots yard, they know that he has been having us all away and Zahynir is actually a mule that simply cant win, but just in case, the company which is worth over €8 billion will limit IAMAMORON to 56 quid at 3/1:D
Everyday I think you cant possibly make me laugh anymore than you did the previous day, but you deliver every single day, you are a credit to your profession young man!!
..............................................................................................
Flaming
Posts containing personal attacks on another user will be edited/deleted. Attack the post, not the poster. Minor infringements will warrant a warning followed by a ban. Serious infringements and/or intentional flaming will receive an automatic ban.
Pogue eile
If you want to stay around please change your attitude.
It would be helpful if you read the Forum Charter and followed it when posting.
Every one of your five sentences in the above post is flaming. Stop.
This is a warning, and I am posting it so all can read it.
Cheltenham is exciting, but please behave on the forum.
The Tetrarch
Wow, it was a bit of banter between my self and IAMAMORON and there was no flaming (?) but duly noted.
Enjoy Cheltenham folks, hope ye all clean the bookies.0 -
Plasandrunt wrote: »people who are fancying Kemboy are the same who fell into the trap and backed Silviniaco Conti every year at HQ
Hands up for the Silviniaco Conti trap, still convinced he was going to romp in but then he fell
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