Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Options
1…102103105107108…120

Comments

  • Options
    #3122
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,661 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Ah yeah this is simply too good to be true. It was fun to get carried away for a bit, but back to real life now:o


  • Options
    #3123
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,555 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    TonyMaloney wrote: »

    It was good fun, but that was a load of indulgent nonsense. Right?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8-HDUBbtgQ


  • Options
    #3124
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Lads, it's not going to happen like that.

    It was good fun, but that was a load of indulgent nonsense. Right?

    Right, I think it will be colder. That was a mild run. ;)


  • Options
    #3125
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Bloody weather balloons.

    I remember now. From some other bastard snow event that didn't pan out years ago. The pub run doesn't use "balloon data".
    It's the crappest output of the day from an often maligned model.

    I suggest we drink and regroup tomorrow morning.


  • Options
    #3126
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah, difficult to contain excitement with an 18z like that. Proper cold air from the east. Day 10 though, let's not forget!

    Mad it never brings in the breakdown. Wouldn't be surprised this was an outlier but wow. I did see a fair cluster (no big outliers) of cold ensembles on the 12z, wonder what the 18z will be like. Obviously operational would be in that if there continues to be.

    And round 3 (the uncle as somebody called it :p ) for archive sakes.

    Almost certainly won't happen but eye candy to ponder at nevertheless.

    re29JED.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3127
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    1947.


  • Options
    #3128
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,555 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Pub run rating:

    9 pints/10


  • Options
    #3129
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,901 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Pub run rating:

    9 pints/10
    I thought Michèal said forget the takeaway pints!!:D


  • Options
    #3130
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I suggest we drink and regroup tomorrow morning.

    Good suggestion

    Bad suggestion

    :pac:


  • Options
    #3131
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

    Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3132
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

    Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.

    I tried to tell them about the weather balloons, but they got excited anyway


  • Options
    #3133
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭lolie


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Pub run rating:

    9 pints/10

    Its gone full on Paddy Losty.


  • Options
    #3134
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    6z and 18z are good at short range but useless at long range.


  • Options
    #3135
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

    Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.

    Throw a polar low into the mix and bobs our teapot..


  • Options
    #3136
    barney 20v
    Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭barney 20v


    lolie wrote: »
    Its gone full on Paddy Losty.

    Pub run.---

    Ahhh I wouldn't be fond of snowin... But when I do ah go at it... I do go at it awful and very hard


  • Options
    #3137
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    �� GFS please keep drinking the whiskey tomorrow rounds are on me.


  • Options
    #3138
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,661 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    YanSno wrote: »
    6z and 18z are good at short range but useless at long range.

    So does the pub run really lack input data as has been suggested? It must do to produce outlandish runs that vanish by the next run.


  • Options
    #3139
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    nacho libre wrote: »
    So does the pub run really lack input data as has been suggested? It must do to produce outlandish runs that vanish by the next run.

    Current ideas would support this, hence it's nickname. From what I know, it uses less data from air balloon weather model output than the 0z and 12z, so I've seen many times funny wacky solutions come up here and there.

    I just saw the Ensemble there and that OP surprisingly... wasn't an "outlier" in traditional terms, it wasn't even out of the cluster at any point, nor was it the absolute coldest solution until well well into FI :eek:

    Best to focus on this weeks low for now though, I'm hoping winds become more favourable for me in S dublin, although I tend to do okay in ENE's where I'm located...


  • Options
    #3140
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    This rollercoaster is killing me. Im not able for the drama. One minute, its all gone pear shaped, the next its talk of no big warm up, freezer next week..... its exciting though. I love the craziness of it all!


  • Options
    #3141
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Rougies wrote: »
    Yes they lack weather balloon data for one. I'd imagine they lack other data that is traditionally 00Z and 12Z. I know that ships back in the 70s and 80s used to relay 00Z and 12Z weather measurements to the relevant orgs via radio/morse code, not sure what the protocol is these days.

    I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3142
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.

    And for that reason countries started launching more balloons to fill the gaps. Met Éireann started sending up a balloon at 06Z and 18Z too, which was great for the while it lasted. I noticed before Christmas this had stopped and they were back to the two per day again.

    There still are some launches at 18Z but not as many as 12Z and 00Z. We're at a loss again without those aircraft data.


  • Options
    #3143
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    And for that reason countries started launching more balloons to fill the gaps. Met Éireann started sending up a balloon at 06Z and 18Z too, which was great for the while it lasted. I noticed before Christmas this had stopped and they were back to the two per day again.

    There still are some launches at 18Z but not as many as 12Z and 00Z. We're at a loss again without those aircraft data.

    Another reason for the model volatility recently so.


  • Options
    #3144
    ElisaAtWar
    Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭ElisaAtWar


    Latest BBC forecast suggests just a bit of snow across the UK with nothing across Ireland. Just a bit cold in Ireland. And the BBC are usually bang on


  • Options
    #3145
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Pub run rating:

    9 pints/10
    That 18z has brought me to the drink... Not sure what can be made of it, I'd like the models to firm up and give us some guidance before we have another rollercoaster


  • Options
    #3146
    dsaint1
    Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭dsaint1


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    This rollercoaster is killing me. Im not able for the drama. One minute, its all gone pear shaped, the next its talk of no big warm up, freezer next week..... its exciting though. I love the craziness of it all!

    You should have taken another day off


  • Options
    #3147
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.
    To what extent are flights and their data included in models? I wasn't expecting this to be a confounding influence with the forecasts


  • Options
    #3148
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    ElisaAtWar wrote: »
    Latest BBC forecast suggests just a bit of snow across the UK with nothing across Ireland. Just a bit cold in Ireland. And the BBC are usually bang on

    Well so far the showers have been making it quite far west.

    I have had some drizzle here.


  • Options
    #3149
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,661 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    As expected this GFS run is a big downgrade for those wanting a quick return to snowy cold and a beasterly. However we may end up with a Greenland high instead and a trip down memory lane.


  • Options
    #3150
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    nacho libre wrote: »
    As expected this GFS run is a big downgrade for those wanting a quick return to snowy cold and a beasterly. However we may end up with a Greenland high instead and a trip down memory lane.

    I'd bank that evolution in a second. That Greenie high in FI is amazing.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3151
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Nothing but lashing rain so far in London and south east UK, they were supposed to get snow overnight but it has been lashing rain for hours. Cold seems to be delayed a bit

    quote="sicknotexi;116192824"]I'd bank that evolution in a second. That Greenie high in FI is amazing.[/quote]


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement