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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Anyone hazard a guess are the likely precipitation rates for Thursday?
    Sorry wrong thread.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    ECM bullish about dropping the or at least slightly moving the strong high pressure over the North Sea next weekend southwards. It's been consistent on this over the past 2 days. It shunts the very cold air to central and East Europe. Keeps us in a coolish south - southeasterly. But drier at least, should help with the high water levels in some areas. Beyond the 17th,we await the GFS interpretation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    To what extent are flights and their data included in models? I wasn't expecting this to be a confounding influence with the forecasts

    There are (used to be) thousands of daily aircraft reports. Have a read of this.

    https://amdar.noaa.gov/

    https://amdar.noaa.gov/docs/fcst-disc/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    As expected this GFS run is a big downgrade for those wanting a quick return to snowy cold and a beasterly. However we may end up with a Greenland high instead and a trip down memory lane.

    I thought you were expecting the 20th, actually if you look at the 0z GFS for the 18th it's a great chart, the Low over Italy which I talked about yesterday, anyway its out in fantasy island


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    typhoony wrote: »
    I thought you were expecting the 20th, actually if you look at the 0z GFS for the 18th it's a great chart, the Low over Italy which I talked about yesterday, anyway its out in fantasy island

    The one that props up the scandi high and keeps the cold air from sinking into the Balkans?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020706/gfs-0-150.png?6
    That's some monster Scandi High
    If our luck is in this could bear an orchard!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020706/gfs-0-150.png?6
    That's some monster Scandi High
    If our luck is in this could bear an orchard!!

    If the universe has the sense of humour I believe it does, then we’ll get a once in a century Pandemic at the same time as a once in a century Snow event for Ireland. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020706/gfs-0-150.png?6
    That's some monster Scandi High
    If our luck is in this could bear an orchard!!

    How’s our red looking for Wednesday/Thursday?!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    How’s our red looking for Wednesday/Thursday?!
    Not great for the South
    I'd say our chances are Mon to Wed, getting milder through Thursday.
    Could be significant snow through the Midlands though


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Not great for the South
    I'd say our chances are Mon to Wed, getting milder through Thursday.
    Could be significant snow through the Midlands though

    Like hens teeth then working out down South anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    GFS giving some lovely eye candy this morning in FI

    gfs-0-324.png


    gfs-1-324.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    lol

    gfs-0-342.png

    gfs-1-342.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    lol

    Pity it’s not for next Sunday 14th. Miles out in FI lol


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Gfs throws in a genuine Beast around 20/21st. - 20 uppers into UK. - 12 to -16 near or over us. If it verifies, I'll eat my hat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    typhoony wrote: »
    I thought you were expecting the 20th, actually if you look at the 0z GFS for the 18th it's a great chart, the Low over Italy which I talked about yesterday, anyway its out in fantasy island

    Are you serious?

    I was giving my thoughts on a chart on how it might evolve, its not written in stone that it will be right, or that it will happen exactly on that date! A great GFS run indeed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,486 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Think the beast will be with us before the timeframe at which this GFS run shows it myself. The building blocks are there much earlier around day 7 on with an increasingly robust Scandinavian high pressure. Quite optimistic!


  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Thats 3 runs in a row showing a Beast or end of the world snow. 18zz, 00zz and 06zz.

    Thats some trend.

    qOU7JmK.png

    ayG0LY6.png

    Any snow ploughs for sale, asking for a friend.

    :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,647 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Thats 3 runs in a row showing a Beast or end of the world snow. 18zz, 00zz and 06zz.

    Thats some trend.

    qOU7JmK.png

    ayG0LY6.png

    Any snow ploughs for sale, asking for a friend.

    :)
    Just look at the thickness levels compared to this one. Thats the real deal alright. So maybe the pub run was not that far fetched overall .


  • Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Just look at the thickness levels compared to this one. Thats the real deal alright. So maybe the pub run was not that far fetched overall .

    About time we had another snow event. Descent cold snow for a few weeks. Skip spring straight into summer about May....ish


  • Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    Just look at the thickness levels compared to this one. Thats the real deal alright. So maybe the pub run was not that far fetched overall .

    16 days away, nice to see but wouldn't pay much attention to it this far away


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Pub run rating:

    9 pints/10

    I don't think the models have blown in the bag before getting back into the car this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    A really strong signal the last two days it has to be said. That cold surface high over Scandi this week has slowly become a bigger factor run by run, watched by Kermit like a hawk, and look what is becoming of it!

    It's kind of the risk-reward of getting cold at this time of year. Risk is that into later Feb and March, you have to deal with increased solar output, melt, longer days. Reward is that in several recent winters come this time of year there is mega cold pooling out East and if you can successfully tap into it, you have the ingredients to overcome those former risks with historic level cold.

    While the 6z doesn't get going till well beyond Day 10, the Scandi high is fairly robust by +150 and would not take a huge amount of work to get energy digging SE and dragging in colder weather prior to the eventual kick off at ~+300 when a low finally heads towards Portugal.

    Usually you can't have your cake and eat it too, but might be the case we can enjoy eating the cake over the next few days and there's an even bigger one in the oven being prepared for us... :D

    And since there is continuing confusion on the purpose of the thread (despite the title and the first post), yes it's in FI and subject to change but it shall be discussed either ways...seriously, why is every 2nd post in here pointing out this is all in FI and might not happen. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Cw85 wrote: »
    16 days away, nice to see but wouldn't pay much attention to it this far away

    Read the thread title pal. cheers


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    after last nights insane pub run, today's GFS is obviously a downgrade, how could it not. However it is still a fantastic run and you can tell by looking at some of the other models they are going with possibly another beast too. However I don't think this cold spell will continue throughout next weekend ready to merge into another cold spell. I think we will get a milder period next weekend.

    The GEM 00z is certainly having a go with another beast.

    GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

    The GFS does not bring the beast that the GEM is showing as early as next week but has a beast a week later.

    GFSOPEU06_354_2.png

    Very happy with this mornings models, but it was beyond fantasy to expect something along the lines of last nights pub run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    Read the thread title pal. cheers

    I'm being realistic , two weeks ago this week was being looked at as a beast, not were just here it's not. All I'm saying is 17 days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Cw85 wrote: »
    I'm being realistic , two weeks ago this week was being looked at as a beast, not were just here it's not. All I'm saying is 17 days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.

    You said there was no point paying attention to these charts. It is literally the point of the thread


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Cw85 wrote: »
    I'm being realistic , two weeks ago this week was being looked at as a beast, not were just here it's not. All I'm saying is 17 days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.

    It's literally called the fantasy island thread


  • Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    It's literally called the fantasy island thread

    It's also called the model and technical discussion thread. I'm literally discussing a model ??


  • Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    You said there was no point paying attention to these charts. It is literally the point of the thread

    The point of the thread is to discuss the models, and that's what I'm doing, I'm saying the model is there but it's so far out I can't see it happening as it currently shows


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    Cw85 wrote: »
    It's also called the model and technical discussion thread. I'm literally discussing a model ??

    dismissing and quelling a conversation isn't exactly the point of the website let alone the thread


This discussion has been closed.
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