FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Ah yeah this is simply too good to be true. It was fun to get carried away for a bit, but back to real life now:o

Kermit.de.frog

TonyMaloney wrote: »

It was good fun, but that was a load of indulgent nonsense. Right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8-HDUBbtgQ

Danno

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Lads, it's not going to happen like that.

It was good fun, but that was a load of indulgent nonsense. Right?

Right, I think it will be colder. That was a mild run.

TonyMaloney

Bloody weather balloons.

I remember now. From some other bastard snow event that didn't pan out years ago. The pub run doesn't use "balloon data".
It's the crappest output of the day from an often maligned model.

I suggest we drink and regroup tomorrow morning.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yeah, difficult to contain excitement with an 18z like that. Proper cold air from the east. Day 10 though, let's not forget!

Mad it never brings in the breakdown. Wouldn't be surprised this was an outlier but wow. I did see a fair cluster (no big outliers) of cold ensembles on the 12z, wonder what the 18z will be like. Obviously operational would be in that if there continues to be.

And round 3 (the uncle as somebody called it ) for archive sakes.

Almost certainly won't happen but eye candy to ponder at nevertheless.

Captain Snow

1947.

Kermit.de.frog

Pub run rating:

9 pints/10

JanuarySnowstor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Pub run rating:

9 pints/10

I thought Michèal said forget the takeaway pints!!:D

Danno

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I suggest we drink and regroup tomorrow morning.

Good suggestion

Bad suggestion

:pac:

Gaoth Laidir

Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.

TonyMaloney

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.

I tried to tell them about the weather balloons, but they got excited anyway

lolie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Pub run rating:

9 pints/10

Its gone full on Paddy Losty.

YanSno

6z and 18z are good at short range but useless at long range.

bazlers

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Great-looking charts, but the usual 18Z disclaimer applies.

Those 850 hPa temperatures, while impressive, are 200 metres higher up than this week's. Changes things slightly when it comes to streamers, but it's pointless even going there at this stage.

Throw a polar low into the mix and bobs our teapot..

barney 20v

lolie wrote: »

Its gone full on Paddy Losty.

Pub run.---

Ahhh I wouldn't be fond of snowin... But when I do ah go at it... I do go at it awful and very hard

Donegal Ken

�� GFS please keep drinking the whiskey tomorrow rounds are on me.

nacho libre

YanSno wrote: »

6z and 18z are good at short range but useless at long range.

So does the pub run really lack input data as has been suggested? It must do to produce outlandish runs that vanish by the next run.

TTLF

nacho libre wrote: »

So does the pub run really lack input data as has been suggested? It must do to produce outlandish runs that vanish by the next run.

Current ideas would support this, hence it's nickname. From what I know, it uses less data from air balloon weather model output than the 0z and 12z, so I've seen many times funny wacky solutions come up here and there.

I just saw the Ensemble there and that OP surprisingly... wasn't an "outlier" in traditional terms, it wasn't even out of the cluster at any point, nor was it the absolute coldest solution until well well into FI :eek:

Best to focus on this weeks low for now though, I'm hoping winds become more favourable for me in S dublin, although I tend to do okay in ENE's where I'm located...

Little snowy old me

This rollercoaster is killing me. Im not able for the drama. One minute, its all gone pear shaped, the next its talk of no big warm up, freezer next week..... its exciting though. I love the craziness of it all!

Rebelbrowser

Rougies wrote: »

Yes they lack weather balloon data for one. I'd imagine they lack other data that is traditionally 00Z and 12Z. I know that ships back in the 70s and 80s used to relay 00Z and 12Z weather measurements to the relevant orgs via radio/morse code, not sure what the protocol is these days.

I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.

And for that reason countries started launching more balloons to fill the gaps. Met Éireann started sending up a balloon at 06Z and 18Z too, which was great for the while it lasted. I noticed before Christmas this had stopped and they were back to the two per day again.

There still are some launches at 18Z but not as many as 12Z and 00Z. We're at a loss again without those aircraft data.

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

And for that reason countries started launching more balloons to fill the gaps. Met Éireann started sending up a balloon at 06Z and 18Z too, which was great for the while it lasted. I noticed before Christmas this had stopped and they were back to the two per day again.

There still are some launches at 18Z but not as many as 12Z and 00Z. We're at a loss again without those aircraft data.

Another reason for the model volatility recently so.

ElisaAtWar

Latest BBC forecast suggests just a bit of snow across the UK with nothing across Ireland. Just a bit cold in Ireland. And the BBC are usually bang on

lucernarian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Pub run rating:

9 pints/10

That 18z has brought me to the drink... Not sure what can be made of it, I'd like the models to firm up and give us some guidance before we have another rollercoaster

dsaint1

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This rollercoaster is killing me. Im not able for the drama. One minute, its all gone pear shaped, the next its talk of no big warm up, freezer next week..... its exciting though. I love the craziness of it all!

You should have taken another day off

lucernarian

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know it was suggested during the first lockdown that all model runs were lacking data usually supplied by passenger planes flying over the Atlantic. Not sure if true but would apply now also if that was the case.

To what extent are flights and their data included in models? I wasn't expecting this to be a confounding influence with the forecasts

Nqp15hhu

ElisaAtWar wrote: »

Latest BBC forecast suggests just a bit of snow across the UK with nothing across Ireland. Just a bit cold in Ireland. And the BBC are usually bang on

Well so far the showers have been making it quite far west.

I have had some drizzle here.

nacho libre

As expected this GFS run is a big downgrade for those wanting a quick return to snowy cold and a beasterly. However we may end up with a Greenland high instead and a trip down memory lane.

sicknotexi

nacho libre wrote: »

As expected this GFS run is a big downgrade for those wanting a quick return to snowy cold and a beasterly. However we may end up with a Greenland high instead and a trip down memory lane.

I'd bank that evolution in a second. That Greenie high in FI is amazing.

Slashermcguirk

Nothing but lashing rain so far in London and south east UK, they were supposed to get snow overnight but it has been lashing rain for hours. Cold seems to be delayed a bit

quote="sicknotexi;116192824"]I'd bank that evolution in a second. That Greenie high in FI is amazing.[/quote]