FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

almostthere12 · 02-02-2021 10:30am

The GFS para looks way better and is a lot more in line with the ECM, does anyone have any mass in that or am I just clutching at straws?

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 10:33am

Will wait till the GFS completes to get a better idea how the full ensemble is shaping up. Perhaps the 12z will be better as the 12z has generally been very good recently.

Reversal · 02-02-2021 10:36am

Gonzo wrote: »

Have to say i'm now very concerned. In early January, the GFS was building up a proper easterly similar to this one while the other models ignored it. As soon as the other models started to come onboard, the GFS dropped it and 1 run later all models abandoned it and we've been in a rut ever since.

Hopefully this is not a repeat and the GFS has serious improvements by the end of today. This 6z is even worse than the pub run and 00z.

I'm not so sure the 6z is another step in the wrong direction, ignoring the 850hpa temperatures for the moment, the mechanism for choking off the cold, the low moving up from the south is less pronounced than both the 18z and the 0z. The 18z last night went out on its own. The 00z and 06z have trended slowly back to the other models in terms of the pattern.

froog · 02-02-2021 10:36am

i don't quite understand the 500hpa / Sea level pressure charts.

why are the colour gradients 480 to 600?

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 10:36am

almostthere12 wrote: »

The GFS para looks way better and is a lot more in line with the ECM, does anyone have any mass in that or am I just clutching at straws?

Correct! Just looking at the GFS P now and it's much better and very similar to the ECM.

gfs-1-192.png?6

Villain · 02-02-2021 10:38am

Just to add some charts to show the GFS OP and Para differences, the 6z is poor from GFS but Para shows how it could come back to the ECM solution easily.

OP:

PARA:

Oneiric 3 · 02-02-2021 10:53am

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

Reckless Abandonment · 02-02-2021 10:54am

I keep hearing 2018 was so easy and the models never flinched. But I don't remember it that way. There was a good bit of uncertainty till about 3 days out. Gfs had it then ecm moved and vice versa. I had to do orders for my job (snow would have had a big impact) and it was only at about the 3 day point I had confidence.

mcburns07 · 02-02-2021 11:01am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

You seem very wound up lately, are you ok?

02-02-2021 11:02am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter netweather, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

Fixed your post

Some background on parallel (Fv3) vs ECM from last year
Take home(and I still believe it to be the case today) it ranks 3rd behind ECM and UKMO

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/

Oneiric 3 · 02-02-2021 11:05am

mcburns07 wrote: »

You seem very wound up lately, are you ok?

I've always been wound up. Not being wound up might give an indication that I'm not OK.

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 11:05am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

Nothing drives likes, shares, comments and retweets like telling people what they want to hear.

At the same time I hope this works out for everyone, it's been a long twisting and uncertain rollercoaster we've been on since December with very little to show for it despite all the blocking and promising charts. This is last chance of a decent cold spell before the second half of February.

Oneiric 3 · 02-02-2021 11:08am

AuntySnow wrote: »

Fixed your post

Some background on parallel (Fv3) vs ECM from last year
Take home(and I still believe it to be the case today) it ranks 3rd behind ECM and UKMO

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/

I don't read NetWeather.

This old model comparison comes up every year. Suddenly the ECMWF is king again because it has finally picked up on what other models have already been showing.

mcburns07 · 02-02-2021 11:09am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I've always been wound up. Not being wound up might give an indication that I'm not OK.

:pac: Fair

Oneiric 3 · 02-02-2021 11:15am

Gonzo wrote: »

At the same time I hope this works out for everyone,.

Don't get me wrong, so do I, but as you say, some are really just using this to draw in the audience and increase their profile.

almostthere12 · 02-02-2021 11:27am

Netweather's snow risk report runs off the GFS model and after updating for the 06z run there is a high probability of snow for most of Ireland on Friday evening!

sryanbruen · 02-02-2021 11:28am

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I keep hearing 2018 was so easy and the models never flinched. But I don't remember it that way. There was a good bit of uncertainty till about 3 days out. Gfs had it then ecm moved and vice versa. I had to do orders for my job (snow would have had a big impact) and it was only at about the 3 day point I had confidence.

I mentioned all about 2018 prelude in a prior post with regards to numerical weather prediction (NWP) and did feel people have rose tinted glasses with it being certain/perfect and all. I remember vividly everyday and people on here talking about it being backdated with a lot of negativity. I was fed into the negativity myself at times and getting huge headaches despite such good background signals. You'll probably remember me going mental about it

was losing sleep over it! Fortunately that doesn't happen anymore..

GFS did very well in the BFTE and I consistently praised it whilst ECM was always the one less interested with the blocking high displaced too far south to allow a feed to Ireland in from the east and would give reminiscence of what happened in February 2012. However, that was an anomaly and ECM still is, by far, the best model for verification on average. Not that it was a complete flop anyway as it still picked up on the omega blocking, just not the correct positioning a lot of the time. The ICON model, once the period was in range, also did extremely well and started gaining more attention on here (and other platforms) following it.

Been less confident with regards to this potential cold snap (which looks more likely than a spell honestly) as there just is no strong signal to suggest otherwise. There is a wedge of heights to our north that needs to develop into a blocking high and fend off the lows to undercut but will it be strong enough to allow the lows to sink and a direct feed from the east occurs? There comes a bit of another issue then - those heights over the med into southeast Europe which can advect greatly milder air towards us via a southeasterly airflow. It's a fragile pattern with high risk of failure. Then for the latter part of the week, what will the US nor'easter do? How will it pick up in the jet stream? Where's it going to go? Is it going to amplify a blocking pattern via warm air advection or will it blow up and go straight westward with heights around Iberia?

Still don't believe this will be anything of note myself as again I feel this is one of those winters that just never quite comes together despite the brilliant blocking. However, I love to be proven wrong of course.

As for the Twitter thing, it is frankly hilarious that once a model shows the cold, it is apparently the king then and we should completely disregard the mild solution. I would heed zero attention to people like them..

JCX BXC · 02-02-2021 11:30am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, so do I, but as you say, some are really just using this to draw in the audience and increase their profile.

I suspect similar, some posts scream at slight upgrades then go silent if something goes slightly wrong.

This is a tough one, it really could go either way, perhaps it's that old habits die hard but the fact the ECM jumped on board holds alot of weight for me. Much more to it though.

Regardless, I can't say I'm expecting any real snow in the West. I'm happy with a few hard frosts and hopefully even a frost day, any snow would be a benefit.

I do hope I see snow settling this winter however, even if just for a few hours.

JCX BXC · 02-02-2021 11:31am

almostthere12 wrote: »

Netweather's snow risk report runs off the GFS model and after updating for the 06z run there is a high probability of snow for most of Ireland on Friday evening!

It does, however my experience is that it's total rubbish. Even as a guide, it's next to useless.

DOCARCH · 02-02-2021 11:42am

JCX BXC wrote: »

It does, however my experience is that it's total rubbish. Even as a guide, it's next to useless.

I wouldn't necessarily call it rubbish. I often glance forecast on XC Weather, which is also GFS based, and it can be quite accurate (some of the time).

All models have there plus and minus and key is not to rely on one.

02-02-2021 11:51am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I don't read NetWeather.

This old model comparison comes up every year. Suddenly the ECMWF is king again because it has finally picked up on what other models have already been showing.

Thats what I meant tbh
The fv3 is 3rd in terms of verification stats
Netweather is hopecaster infested
Very confusing for the noobs
Two is the same
Nothing wrong with hope casting as long as you are clear that's what it is

Gaoth Laidir · 02-02-2021 11:56am

froog wrote: »

i don't quite understand the 500hpa / Sea level pressure charts.

why are the colour gradients 480 to 600?

The colour gradients refer to the height (or geopotential) of the 500-hPa pressure level (in decameters, dam), so 520 = 5200 m). A bit like isobars on a surface chart, these gradient lines join points of equal 500-hPa geopotential. It shows where the upper lows and highs are.

For a good northeasterly we would like to see some upper high (yellow and orange) setting up somewhere between Svalbard and Greenland so that a surface high can set up and direct a northeasterly flow in our direction.

Nqp15hhu · 02-02-2021 12:02pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Correct! Just looking at the GFS P now and it's much better and very similar to the ECM.

Yeah but the cold air keeps getting pushed it. Initially it was Friday now it’s Tuesday that you are looking at.

Nqp15hhu · 02-02-2021 12:03pm

almostthere12 wrote: »

Netweather's snow risk report runs off the GFS model and after updating for the 06z run there is a high probability of snow for most of Ireland on Friday evening!

I don’t rely on that. Look at the soundings.

almostthere12 · 02-02-2021 12:16pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yeah but the cold air keeps getting pushed it. Initially it was Friday now it’s Tuesday that you are looking at.

It hits the northern half of the country by Sunday afternoon so not that bad and it looks like the ECM is nearly identical in that regard.

Btw ECM is the only one predicting the deep cold for Poland someone on this thread or possibly the easterly thread mentioned a weather warning in place by the Polish met.

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 12:20pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yeah but the cold air keeps getting pushed it. Initially it was Friday now it’s Tuesday that you are looking at.

I randomly selected Wednesday from the GFS P, the cold gets in on Sunday from that model.

Rebelbrowser · 02-02-2021 12:23pm

almostthere12 wrote: »

It hits the northern half of the country by Sunday afternoon so not that bad and it looks like the ECM is nearly identical in that regard.

Btw ECM is the only one predicting the deep cold for Poland someone on this thread or possibly the easterly thread mentioned a weather warning in place by the Polish met.

Likewise a friend of mine in Berlin says the local weather forecasters are talking of deep cold from next week which I don't see on some of the models

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2021 1:13pm

There is some real divergence over the weekend with that low pressure over the low countries moving a little north on some models and making it a disruptor to a clean easterly flow. The Euro models in general are much better.

Will it stay that way? Time will tell.

I'm still confident though.

Villain · 02-02-2021 1:51pm

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:

00z:

Edited to update images

02-02-2021 1:55pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Fixed your post

Netweather are no more rampers than here. The Models were showing significant cold at one stage and that is what both sites, there and here were emphasising. Most people on both forums like snow.

Nqp15hhu · 02-02-2021 1:56pm

Villain wrote: »

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:

00z:

I can't see your screenshots.

froog · 02-02-2021 2:03pm

GFS still showing a nice sprinkling of snow for friday.

lucernarian · 02-02-2021 2:11pm

Villain wrote: »

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:

00z:

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

lucernarian · 02-02-2021 2:17pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Netweather are no more rampers than here. The Models were showing significant cold at one stage and that is what both sites, there and here were emphasising. Most people on both forums like snow.

They are a bit more rampey than here, it's why I prefer posting here tbh. That and the bias to the SE of England.

My current take is that the GFS is developing potential LP a little too much. Yesterday I personally called it for a very cold outbreak but even with changes in FI since, I'm still confident it will happen. Happy to be corrected though

jArgHA · 02-02-2021 2:19pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

The images load fine for me using Firefox on Android based smartphone.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2021 2:19pm

Villain wrote: »

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:

00z:

Have you got the SLP charts?

A more developed mild core there over the low countries.

froog · 02-02-2021 2:21pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

not loading for me on desktop on chrome.

SlowBlowin · 02-02-2021 2:32pm

Try this:

06z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-3.png

00z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-4.png

lucernarian · 02-02-2021 2:40pm

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Try this:

06z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-3.png

00z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-4.png

Thank you. They don't look encouraging to me, tbh.

Villain · 02-02-2021 2:40pm

I've updated the images to use https so should work now hopefully.

Also Kermit

TheMilkyPirate · 02-02-2021 2:46pm

Is it the top one is the 6z?

EDIT: I see it now. 6z looks better to me low further East? Not sure if I'm reading the chart correctly.

giveitholly · 02-02-2021 2:55pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

I can't see them either on the moblie

Villain · 02-02-2021 3:32pm

First out is the ICON 12z and it delays the cold again with low out West much deeper and stalling, not a good start!

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 3:49pm

The soon to roll out GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM 12z will probably solve where were going from here.

This cold spell is a complete mess at this stage and too much is going wrong already. I'm expecting the ECM and GEM to revert to a similar scene to the GFS and Icon. Hope i'm proven wrong.

I'm expecting this cold spell to be shifted back to eastern Europe and then possibly down to Greece and Turkey as is the case most winters.

Villain · 02-02-2021 3:52pm

I'm thinking the GFS will move towards the ECM but it could get messy, interesting runs coming out, ARPEGE looks OK at the end.

Rebelbrowser · 02-02-2021 3:53pm

I believe the Aperge updated and is good for an easterly

odyboody · 02-02-2021 3:55pm

that's the storm that dumped 6 feet of snow in northern California and brought New York city to a standstill.??
Maybe it will slide on under down towards Spain and do the same for us.:D

TheMilkyPirate · 02-02-2021 3:57pm

Could be hanging myself here but the 12z looks better already. Low dropping south much faster

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 3:58pm

The GFS 12z is on it's way. Friday is now milder compared to the 6z. The low is a little further south compared to the 6z and winds in from the east over Scotland. This looks slightly better than the 6z.

Villain · 02-02-2021 3:59pm

UKMO +96

That will do!

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST