FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

Not liking the way things are going with that low, milder air is trending more North every run but it was a relief to see a cold ECM again. Hopefully a better 6z GFS now

Gonzo

just checked that GFS 00z run and it's even worse than the pub run. Not good at all, we would be lucky to see any snow or proper cold with that run. Hopefully the 06z which is about to rollout will fall in line with the ECM which looks very good for a 4/5 day cold spell.

2 poor GFS runs in a row is a bit worrying as the GFS has spotted trends very well since November.

If the ECM verifies and delivers a decent 4 to 5 day easterly/north-easterly then that would be me well satisfied with this winter, it doesn't have to be a 10 day beast but obviously the longer it goes on the better!.

It is a bit unnerving watching the 06z rollout.

TheMilkyPirate

6z has been a bit different than the 00z and 12z the last few days so I wouldn't be too despondent if it doesn't show what we want but would be nice to see a shift back.

In saying that it doesn't look great at +72 low seems to be heading North

Gonzo

Could this be even worse? Got a bad feeling about this one already.

I have the 00z open on one tab and the 06z on the other for comparison.

If this turns out to be another stinker then we need the 12z later on to deliver.

Stevieluvsye

I'm 80% confident we'll get 4 to 5 days of really cold snowy weather. I always use BBC Weather (UKMO) as a guidance and usually accurate.

Everyone relax. IT WILL COME

froog

06 looks colder to my untrained eye so far.

TheMilkyPirate

Yeah it's beginning to look a little better, that low coming up from Spain (which is now our problem not the first low) is further East and doesn't seem as deep as the 00z. Slightly stronger blocking also.

Splitting hairs really as it will be different again on the 00z :rolleyes:

EDIT: Definitely better so far this run. Yes I am commenting frame by frame but I am invested in this now god dammit!

Gonzo

looks slightly better but not by much. Heights over Greenland are better but too far to the Canadian side compared to the ECM.

Now the connection is gone. Just about every snow fan across Ireland, Wales and England is waiting with hearts in mouths while the scots rest easy, they've got not much to worry about!

Humberto Salazar

It's that pesky low over Holland at T120, acts like someone standing on a hose pipe pumping water, it's cutting off the cold from the East. It needs to be further south to allow the full blast unhindered from Russia.

Longing

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

It's that pesky low over Holland at T120, acts like someone standing on a hose pipe pumping water, it's cutting off the cold from the East. It needs to be further south to allow the full blast unhindered from Russia.

Well that low has dropped on each run on the GFS to be more in line with the ECM. So this run is slightly better.

Gonzo

wetterzentrale is completely gone for me, no amount of refreshing is bringing it back. +120 hours was the last frame I saw.

Slashermcguirk

My weather app now showing snow from Sunday to Wednesday. Boom

TheMilkyPirate

As Gonzo says it's an improvement, not much but definitely a step in the right direction. Quite similar to the ECM really except the cold is a bit further north but undercutting lows seem to be the theme developing.





Para much better

Gonzo

wetterzentrale back. Another poor run, mild is back in by Monday. Absolutely awful stuff.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

wetterzentrale back. Another poor run, mild is back in by Monday. Absolutely awful stuff.

Yup
See that

Gonzo

Have to say i'm now very concerned. In early January, the GFS was building up a proper easterly similar to this one while the other models ignored it. As soon as the other models started to come onboard, the GFS dropped it and 1 run later all models abandoned it and we've been in a rut ever since.

Hopefully this is not a repeat and the GFS has serious improvements by the end of today. This 6z is even worse than the pub run and 00z.

TheMilkyPirate

That was a slight improvement this morning and the Parallel is very similar to the ECM. I would hope the GFS will back towards the ECM even more on the 12z this afternoon.

The 6z ICON was heading the way of the GFS as well though so a lot to play for still.

TTLF

I wouldn't call the 6Z a completely poor run, compared to the other two runs it's evolution is different which shows a change, not much has to change there to bring in the cold, seems to be a low somewhere around Netherlands/SE UK that causes the lift of heights and puts us in an awkward position.

Seems the GFS 6Z is the only one with it now, Even the Para run doesn't show that low anymore. Compare it to the 0Z where the low went over SE/Midlands England and this one time it's lower down over the Netherlands. Certainly better than before. :pac:


EDIT: Well, as Milky said the ICON is showing something too so, we'll just have to wait and see.

KingdomRushed

It would be nice to take solace from the ECM, UKMO and GFS Para all showing nice easterly and very cold.

However, the setup in each of them is very fragile. The complexities of low pressure in the Atlantic, and warm and cold air meeting over the near continent make this a very different run in to a cold snap compared to 2018 which was bullet proof in the models, you just knew. Yesterday I stated I hoped to see tightening around the cold members in the GFS ensembles, it looks the opposite, increasing uncertainty, with a momentum towards something different than a clean easterly

It remains the most high stakes potential for the winter though, and likely to be one of the final chances.

Slashermcguirk

It feels like people react way too much to one bad run. Last Friday people saying it was going belly up and by yesterday everything looked super, things will chop and change a bit but if most models now looking good, it surely bodes pretty well. I would take just a few days of great snow to be honest and then a beautiful March to Early June like last year

almostthere12

The GFS para looks way better and is a lot more in line with the ECM, does anyone have any mass in that or am I just clutching at straws?

Gonzo

Will wait till the GFS completes to get a better idea how the full ensemble is shaping up. Perhaps the 12z will be better as the 12z has generally been very good recently.

Reversal

Gonzo wrote: »

Have to say i'm now very concerned. In early January, the GFS was building up a proper easterly similar to this one while the other models ignored it. As soon as the other models started to come onboard, the GFS dropped it and 1 run later all models abandoned it and we've been in a rut ever since.

Hopefully this is not a repeat and the GFS has serious improvements by the end of today. This 6z is even worse than the pub run and 00z.

I'm not so sure the 6z is another step in the wrong direction, ignoring the 850hpa temperatures for the moment, the mechanism for choking off the cold, the low moving up from the south is less pronounced than both the 18z and the 0z. The 18z last night went out on its own. The 00z and 06z have trended slowly back to the other models in terms of the pattern.

froog

i don't quite understand the 500hpa / Sea level pressure charts.

why are the colour gradients 480 to 600?

Gonzo

almostthere12 wrote: »

The GFS para looks way better and is a lot more in line with the ECM, does anyone have any mass in that or am I just clutching at straws?

Correct! Just looking at the GFS P now and it's much better and very similar to the ECM.

Villain

Just to add some charts to show the GFS OP and Para differences, the 6z is poor from GFS but Para shows how it could come back to the ECM solution easily.

OP:


PARA:

Oneiric 3

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

Reckless Abandonment

I keep hearing 2018 was so easy and the models never flinched. But I don't remember it that way. There was a good bit of uncertainty till about 3 days out. Gfs had it then ecm moved and vice versa. I had to do orders for my job (snow would have had a big impact) and it was only at about the 3 day point I had confidence.

mcburns07

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

You seem very wound up lately, are you ok?

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really do hope that those on here looking for big snows from this easterly get to see it, but I have to say, I will take a certain sadistic delight in watching the hearts drop of those twats on Twitter netweather, who really ought to know better, who have been hyping up its potential so far if the whole thing goes titicus verticus. I'm not going to mention names, but some UK forecasters seem to be particular prone to this.

Fixed your post

Some background on parallel (Fv3) vs ECM from last year
Take home(and I still believe it to be the case today) it ranks 3rd behind ECM and UKMO

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/