FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mount Vesuvius

GFS looks well wrong though, all the others just now are on the same vein

Mount Vesuvius

GFS mean is like ICON UKMO AND GEM

nacho libre

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

GFS looks well wrong though, all the others just now are on the same vein

I hope so Mount Vesuvius, but as we have seen already this winter the GFS annoyingly turned out to be right going its own way, despite other models refusing to back it initially. I hope this is not a case of de ja vu.

Humberto Salazar

Not looking good from GFS.

pistolpetes11

I think it would help people to have a little more discussion on the actual charts , rather than not good or great charts , a bit of context to the posts would be very helpful

Mount Vesuvius

If the ECM is something like the GEM and UKMO then i will be happy enough.
I don't think those previous minus 12 850hpa temperatures will be bathing us, more like a diluted outcome. Minus 8 would still be not too bad

nacho libre

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

If the ECM is something like the GEM and UKMO then i will be happy enough.
I don't think those previous minus 12 850hpa temperatures will be bathing us, more like a diluted outcome. Minus 8 would still be not too bad

Yes. Hopefully it will be a diluted version of its earlier run as opposed to a complete downgrade as per the GFS. We know given the lack of support from its own members, that it will be not be the previous eye candy run we saw.

Mount Vesuvius

Yes Nacho, A big downgrade would be not good at all, so fingers crossed. We are still a bit out and I've really been looking at Sunday day/night before anything cold enough gives a chance a snow

MET ÉIREANN further outlook after Saturday

Further Outlook: Turning colder with northeast to east winds feeding in wintry showers at times and hard ground frosts can be expected at night.

icesnowfrost

Just waiting on the one run downgrade brigade to start saying “ that’s it no cold no snow this weekend, it’s all over”

Anyway I expect the 6z to be an improvement on the latest run and see where this is leading to. I think we are still on for a mini (5 day) cold snap. East and northeast coasts at last. I can see met eireann having an orange weather warning if the models are to be believed.

torres9kop

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Just waiting on the one run downgrade brigade to start saying “ that’s it no cold no snow this weekend, it’s all over”

Anyway I expect the 6z to be an improvement on the latest run and see where this is leading to. I think we are still on for a mini (5 day) cold snap. East and northeast coasts at last. I can see met eireann having an orange weather warning if the models are to be believed.

I knew it was too good to be true )

Mount Vesuvius

ECM 144 HRS, was hoping for the slider and thankfully it holds.
This allows the westward movement of the cold air

JanuarySnowstor

Yes indeed nice ECM phew!!
So gfs more out on its own

Mount Vesuvius

@168 hrs Cork snow shield is soon under attack



Happy enough with that evolution so far, plenty cold air over us.

JanuarySnowstor

I keep going on about flimsy heights to our North
Much better heights over Greenland on this ECM run make a massive difference!! For want of a different phrase It shoves Everything further South allowing the cold to filter through

Mount Vesuvius

Then slider number 2 . This props up our cold flow,very good run.

JanuarySnowstor

Awesome ECM this morning with the pv in tatters to our North!!
The good ol rollercoaster is full throttle this morning!!

bazlers

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Awesome ECM this morning with the pv in tatters to our North!!
The good ol rollercoaster is full throttle this morning!!

Indeed and have the sick bucket on your knees at times..another hurdle over for now...

carltonleon

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Then slider number 2 . This props up our cold flow,very good run.

Hi MV,another noob question, I kinda have a vague understanding of what a slider is, which i think is a low pressure which splits and part of it slides under a block.... but how can you tell from the charts that its a slider?

nacho libre

Stunning ECM. We can't be sure the GFS is wrong, but with the ECM and UKMO not backing the GFS it's an encouraging sign.

Mount Vesuvius

carltonleon wrote: »

Hi MV,another noob question, I kinda have a vague understanding of what a slider is, which i think is a low pressure which splits and part of it slides under a block.... but how can you tell from the charts that its a slider?

You are correct with the block, in this instance it's the retrogression of cold air that makes the lows from the Atlantic slide under them. It slides under it so to speak. not pushing it out of the way for now.

KingdomRushed

I find the GFS ensembles unnerving to be honest. Two runs in a row now where the GFS injects mild air into the mix for us early next week. The support for this has grown overnight. While UKMO and ECM do still show nice set ups, with ECM being spectacular cd I can't help feel that the GFS is much more consistent this time, and is possibly more likely to verify or something like it.

carltonleon

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

You are correct with the block, in this instance it's the retrogression of cold air that makes the lows from the Atlantic slide under them. It slides under it so to speak. not pushing it out of the way for now.

Thanks for that... trying to get my head around all this.

Villain

Well isn't this fun! The GFS jumps away from the colder outcome just as the ECM comes on board!

GFS


ECM


The GEFS ensembles show a big shift in the mean!

0z


12z

Mount Vesuvius

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I find the GFS ensembles unnerving to be honest. Two runs in a row now where the GFS injects mild air into the mix for us early next week. The support for this has grown overnight. While UKMO and ECM do still show nice set ups, with ECM being spectacular cd I can't help feel that the GFS is much more consistent this time, and is possibly more likely to verify or something like it.

Milder air enters ECM too end of run

NMB

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I find the GFS ensembles unnerving to be honest. Two runs in a row now where the GFS injects mild air into the mix for us early next week. The support for this has grown overnight. While UKMO and ECM do still show nice set ups, with ECM being spectacular cd I can't help feel that the GFS is much more consistent this time, and is possibly more likely to verify or something like it.

Yep I’m on the same page. GFS has been the trend spotter this winter

pad199207

NMB wrote: »

Yep I’m on the same page. GFS has been the trend spotter this winter

Exactly. That’s the danger here with this one too like all this winter so far. The GFS has a “rogue” run at the 12z yesterday(as fantastic as it was) and the rest of them probably went with it and are still hanging onto it this morning.

It could take until today’s 12z to show the other models pick up this new GFS trend. GFS can be crap with the smaller details but it really does well with trends imo. We shall see. Another heart stopper day of model watching.

bazlers

Unfortunately its their take (GFS ECM) on that low that makes them look worlds apart upstream thats their difference. (Small difference of opinion but big out come)
This makes our world either green or white.

Slashermcguirk

I asked this question over last couple of days, is GFS the most reliable but was told no, it’s the ECM that is the one you want and it’s the form horse. Now GFS not as good and everyone saying GFS is the one you want.

Anyway most charts look super so hopefully we are heading for some nice snow

pad199207 wrote: »

Exactly. That’s the danger here with this one too like all this winter so far. The GFS has a “rogue” run at the 12z yesterday(as fantastic as it was) and the rest of them probably went with it and are still hanging onto it this morning.

It could take until today’s 12z to show the other models pick up this new GFS trend. GFS can be crap with the smaller details but it really does well with trends imo. We shall see. Another heart stopper day of model watching.

Mount Vesuvius

The Ecm pulls the low south east over France, GFS say no.

Villain

The ECM ensembles for Southeast Ireland show the mean just touching -10 by Monday!

Still a bit of an Outlier in the longer range but mean has dropped a little, the ECM OP has a lot of support here.