FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

mcburns07 wrote: »

You seem very wound up lately, are you ok?

I've always been wound up. Not being wound up might give an indication that I'm not OK.

AuntySnow wrote: »

Fixed your post

Some background on parallel (Fv3) vs ECM from last year
Take home(and I still believe it to be the case today) it ranks 3rd behind ECM and UKMO

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/

I don't read NetWeather.

This old model comparison comes up every year. Suddenly the ECMWF is king again because it has finally picked up on what other models have already been showing.

Gonzo wrote: »

At the same time I hope this works out for everyone,.

Don't get me wrong, so do I, but as you say, some are really just using this to draw in the audience and increase their profile.

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I keep hearing 2018 was so easy and the models never flinched. But I don't remember it that way. There was a good bit of uncertainty till about 3 days out. Gfs had it then ecm moved and vice versa. I had to do orders for my job (snow would have had a big impact) and it was only at about the 3 day point I had confidence.

I mentioned all about 2018 prelude in a prior post with regards to numerical weather prediction (NWP) and did feel people have rose tinted glasses with it being certain/perfect and all. I remember vividly everyday and people on here talking about it being backdated with a lot of negativity. I was fed into the negativity myself at times and getting huge headaches despite such good background signals. You'll probably remember me going mental about it was losing sleep over it! Fortunately that doesn't happen anymore..

GFS did very well in the BFTE and I consistently praised it whilst ECM was always the one less interested with the blocking high displaced too far south to allow a feed to Ireland in from the east and would give reminiscence of what happened in February 2012. However, that was an anomaly and ECM still is, by far, the best model for verification on average. Not that it was a complete flop anyway as it still picked up on the omega blocking, just not the correct positioning a lot of the time. The ICON model, once the period was in range, also did extremely well and started gaining more attention on here (and other platforms) following it.

Been less confident with regards to this potential cold snap (which looks more likely than a spell honestly) as there just is no strong signal to suggest otherwise. There is a wedge of heights to our north that needs to develop into a blocking high and fend off the lows to undercut but will it be strong enough to allow the lows to sink and a direct feed from the east occurs? There comes a bit of another issue then - those heights over the med into southeast Europe which can advect greatly milder air towards us via a southeasterly airflow. It's a fragile pattern with high risk of failure. Then for the latter part of the week, what will the US nor'easter do? How will it pick up in the jet stream? Where's it going to go? Is it going to amplify a blocking pattern via warm air advection or will it blow up and go straight westward with heights around Iberia?

Still don't believe this will be anything of note myself as again I feel this is one of those winters that just never quite comes together despite the brilliant blocking. However, I love to be proven wrong of course.

As for the Twitter thing, it is frankly hilarious that once a model shows the cold, it is apparently the king then and we should completely disregard the mild solution. I would heed zero attention to people like them..

almostthere12 wrote: »

Netweather's snow risk report runs off the GFS model and after updating for the 06z run there is a high probability of snow for most of Ireland on Friday evening!

It does, however my experience is that it's total rubbish. Even as a guide, it's next to useless.

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yeah but the cold air keeps getting pushed it. Initially it was Friday now it’s Tuesday that you are looking at.

It hits the northern half of the country by Sunday afternoon so not that bad and it looks like the ECM is nearly identical in that regard.

Btw ECM is the only one predicting the deep cold for Poland someone on this thread or possibly the easterly thread mentioned a weather warning in place by the Polish met.

almostthere12 wrote: »

It hits the northern half of the country by Sunday afternoon so not that bad and it looks like the ECM is nearly identical in that regard.

Btw ECM is the only one predicting the deep cold for Poland someone on this thread or possibly the easterly thread mentioned a weather warning in place by the Polish met.

Likewise a friend of mine in Berlin says the local weather forecasters are talking of deep cold from next week which I don't see on some of the models

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:


00z:


Edited to update images

Villain wrote: »

The ECM 6z only goes to +90 but looks good even compared to 00z

06z:


00z:

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

The images load fine for me using Firefox on Android based smartphone.

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

not loading for me on desktop on chrome.

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Try this:

06z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-3.png

00z http://www.oreilly.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Image-from-iOS-4.png

Thank you. They don't look encouraging to me, tbh.