Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

01-02-2021 04:34PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

I think we should let lions roam free because the one in the enclosure at the zoo never ate anyone....

I think we should ban cars, bikes, planes, helicopters, boats etc because they can cause deaths.

Add in cigarettes and alcohol as well. And all foods that are not healthy.

Some water, exercise and healthy foods is all we need to survive.

If we try to remove every element of danger from society, we might live a bit longer...

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 04:50PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Funny how we went into lockdown based on models that showed huge numbers of deaths and here we are a year later desperately trying to show that there actually are some excess deaths.

Would be weird if we had a pandemic that didn’t kill anyone...

And what is it, 80% of those weren't even treated in ICU.

This is one mild pandemic, and some over reaction.

01-02-2021 04:53PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

And what is it, 80% of those weren't even treated in ICU.

This is one mild pandemic, and some over reaction.

Yep, you know best

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 04:59PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But we haven’t recalibrated the mitigation measures that were initially mandated to prevent transmission of a disease thought to be 5 times more deadly than it actually is.

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonality factor involved, you know, that at certain times of the year, our immune systems are at their weakest.

Boggles · 01-02-2021 05:01PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

And what is it, 80% of those weren't even treated in ICU.

This is one mild pandemic, and some over reaction.

Have you any sort of professional qualifications that are relevant to back that pretty meaty claim up?

Because TBF we have had some pretty high profile vastly more experienced people absolutely demolish their academic reputations on a lot less.

If you are getting your opinion from echo chambers online or grifters selling bottled smoke, than fair enough.

But if you have something concrete to prove that Western Capitalism is getting it wrong, by all means formulate something and tap it out.

Evidenced based, not "I heard an interview, but it doesn't exist anymore" - actually data based evidence.

Shouting out Sweden, will not suffice either.

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:12PM

Boggles wrote: »

Have you any sort of professional qualifications that are relevant to back that pretty meaty claim up?

Because TBF we have had some pretty high profile vastly more experienced people absolutely demolish their academic reputations on a lot less.

If you are getting your opinion from echo chambers online or grifters selling bottled smoke, than fair enough.

But if you have something concrete to prove that Western Capitalism is getting it wrong, by all means formulate something and tap it out.

Evidenced based, not "I heard an interview, but it doesn't exist anymore" - actually data based evidence.

Shouting out Sweden, will not suffice either.

Which "meaty claim" are you on about

That about 80% of our victims of Covid weren't treated in ICU?

Or that this is a mild pandemic - Well, it is no where in the realm of the Spanish flu, it is more in the realm of a bad flu season....as we have witnessed in Sweden

Or that it is some over reaction....as witnessed in Sweden.

Ignoring Sweden won't suffice for you either.

And as for data based evidence, I don't think you are in any position to be pontificating on what is data based evidence given your contributions on here....I have asked plenty of times, to show me an expert who has been given exposure in our media who has been spot on or can offer accurate projections, and nobody has been able to name one....not one...

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonal aspect to this that we are not accounting for at all it seems!!!

There is one other difference between Sweden and most other countries in this part of the world, the Swedes aren't protesting their government actions, they are not screaming to be locked up for their safety....the Dutch, Germans, British, Dane's, Italians, Polish are out on the streets protesting, and more will follow them.

01-02-2021 05:14PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonality factor involved, you know, that at certain times of the year, our immune systems are at their weakest.

And Florida had an incredibly harsh winter last June and July. And the last couple of months in South Africa, I don't think they have ever seen a winter like it

Boggles · 01-02-2021 05:19PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

And as for data based evidence,

So that's a no.

You call for robust debate and you immediately switch to ranting and raving, soap boxing and doom mongering.

I have come to the conclusion that you simply are not a good faith poster and we will have to leave it there.

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And Florida had an incredibly harsh winter last June and July. And the last couple of months in South Africa, I don't think they have ever seen a winter like it

DO I have to do your thinking for you?

There is a seasonal factor for every virus of this nature...full stop...our immune systems are weak at certain times of the year virus or no virus...you don't even need to be any kind of medical expert in this...it's basic stuff...it's why we didn't see our numbers increase until September.

There is probably a logical explanation such as the fact that people in really hot and wealthy parts of the world, retreat indoors to air conditioned premises which is blasting the punters with recycled air, and they may not see the kinds of flu surges we see every year because of their climate and immune systems...that is pure speculation on my part, to be fair.

01-02-2021 05:26PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Which "meaty claim" are you on about

That about 80% of our victims of Covid weren't treated in ICU?

Or that this is a mild pandemic - Well, it is no where in the realm of the Spanish flu, it is more in the realm of a bad flu season....as we have witnessed in Sweden

Or that it is some over reaction....as witnessed in Sweden.

Ignoring Sweden won't suffice for you either.

And as for data based evidence, I don't think you are in any position to be pontificating on what is data based evidence given your contributions on here....I have asked plenty of times, to show me an expert who has been given exposure in our media who has been spot on or can offer accurate projections, and nobody has been able to name one....not one...

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonal aspect to this that we are not accounting for at all it seems!!!

There is one other difference between Sweden and most other countries in this part of the world, the Swedes aren't protesting their government actions, they are not screaming to be locked up for their safety....the Dutch, Germans, British, Dane's, Italians, Polish are out on the streets protesting, and more will follow them.

Here is a nice little chart showing flu and pneunomia deaths per year in England and Wales compared against 2020 Covid deaths. Bare in mind this chart was produced in August, 5 months into to pandemic, but for preceding years the flu and pneumonia deaths are for the full year. 11 months in, the UK figure is now 106k, more than 3.5 times annual flu and pneumonia deaths, with massive restrictions applied

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:28PM

Boggles wrote: »

So that's a no.

You call for robust debate and you immediately switch to ranting and raving, soap boxing and doom mongering.

I have come to the conclusion that you simply are not a good faith poster and we will have to leave it there.

Boggles, I asked you repeatedly to provide us with the science you claim exists regarding severe lockdowns in this very thread, you never provided any, and here you are castigating me...there is a huge issue for all of us, I can't even provide you with a Cost Benefit Analysis, because they ain't publishing it.

It's funny that you would then go on to call question my integrity for doing something you have repeatedly done!!!

01-02-2021 05:32PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

DO I have to do your thinking for you?

There is a seasonal factor for every virus of this nature...full stop...our immune systems are weak at certain times of the year virus or no virus...you don't even need to be any kind of medical expert in this...it's basic stuff...it's why we didn't see our numbers increase until September.

There is probably a logical explanation such as the fact that people in really hot and wealthy parts of the world, retreat indoors to air conditioned premises which is blasting the punters with recycled air, and they may not see the kinds of flu surges we see every year because of their climate and immune systems...that is pure speculation on my part, to be fair.

The seasonality of viruses tends to occur once they are endemic. Pandemics with novel viruses do not necessarily follow the same pattern. The second wave in Europe began in August. Two months before the winter flu season usually starts. Ironically at the same time pretty much as wave 2 of the Spanish flu.

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:36PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Here is a nice little chart showing flu and pneunomia deaths per year in England and Wales compared against 2020 Covid deaths. Bare in mind this chart was produced in August, 5 months into to pandemic, but for preceding years the flu and pneumonia deaths are for the full year. 11 months in, the UK figure is now 106, more than 3.5 times annual flu and pneumonia deaths, with massive restrictions applied

Can I ask, how were they defining Flu and Pneunomia deaths? How are they defining Covid deaths?

If a person who was in a home, with a serious cancer, picked up a flu and passes, was that person a flu death?

Boggles · 01-02-2021 05:39PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Boggles, I asked you repeatedly to provide us with the science

Is that the studies you were provided with and immediately wrote off as "garbage"?

Sure.....

I stand completely by my last post. Reinforced even.

bb1234567 · 01-02-2021 05:39PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Which "meaty claim" are you on about

That about 80% of our victims of Covid weren't treated in ICU?

Or that this is a mild pandemic - Well, it is no where in the realm of the Spanish flu, it is more in the realm of a bad flu season....as we have witnessed in Sweden

Or that it is some over reaction....as witnessed in Sweden.

Ignoring Sweden won't suffice for you either.

And as for data based evidence, I don't think you are in any position to be pontificating on what is data based evidence given your contributions on here....I have asked plenty of times, to show me an expert who has been given exposure in our media who has been spot on or can offer accurate projections, and nobody has been able to name one....not one...

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonal aspect to this that we are not accounting for at all it seems!!!

There is one other difference between Sweden and most other countries in this part of the world, the Swedes aren't protesting their government actions, they are not screaming to be locked up for their safety....the Dutch, Germans, British, Dane's, Italians, Polish are out on the streets protesting, and more will follow them.

It's as far from a bad flu season as it is from Spanish flu.
Numerous metropolitan regions of the world have seen 3000+ excess deaths per million. Mexico city has seen 6150 excess deaths per million for example, one of the worst affected areas in the world, NYC saw 3500 excess deaths per million..
A bad flu season will be 100-200 or so excess deaths per million.
Spanish flu was about 20,000-30,000 excess deaths per million on average worldwide.
So very roughly COVID is probably around ten times worse than flu, and Spanish flu was around ten times worse than COVID.
If anything the potential is there for it to be closer to spanish flu than bad flu, hence the response worldwide, which you know of course but are far too stubborn to ever admit even though it's obviously the case

bb1234567 · 01-02-2021 05:46PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Which "meaty claim" are you on about

That about 80% of our victims of Covid weren't treated in ICU?

Or that this is a mild pandemic - Well, it is no where in the realm of the Spanish flu, it is more in the realm of a bad flu season....as we have witnessed in Sweden

Or that it is some over reaction....as witnessed in Sweden.

Ignoring Sweden won't suffice for you either.

And as for data based evidence, I don't think you are in any position to be pontificating on what is data based evidence given your contributions on here....I have asked plenty of times, to show me an expert who has been given exposure in our media who has been spot on or can offer accurate projections, and nobody has been able to name one....not one...
account for seasonality?
We can't even recognize that there is a seasonal aspect to this that we are not accounting for at all it seems!!!

There is one other difference between Sweden and most other countries in this part of the world, the Swedes aren't protesting their government actions, they are not screaming to be locked up for their safety....the Dutch, Germans, British, Dane's, Italians, Polish are out on the streets protesting, and more will follow them.

Maybe South American countries and South Africa did this kind of accounting for and that's why they got a surprise 'seasonal' wave in the middle of summer worse than the first winter wave? So where does that leave us?

01-02-2021 05:46PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Can I ask, how were they defining Flu and Pneunomia deaths? How are they defining Covid deaths?

If a person who was in a home, with a serious cancer, picked up a flu and passes, was that person a flu death?

You will have to ask Public Health England. Pneumonia/ Flu/Covid and the underlying condition would typically be recorded on the death cert.

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:47PM

Boggles wrote: »

Is that the studies you were provided with and immediately wrote off as "garbage"?

Sure.....

I stand completely by my last post. Reinforced even.

You didn't provide anything....let's be clear on that, another poster eventually provided a few studies that had some merit but also had a few inconclusive assertions, which if you had bothered to read would have spotted.

What was provided wasn't written off as garbage, I was making a point that if we don't know the actual amount of infections then we need to be careful what kind of data we are consuming, in any industry that requires an accurate analysis of data, there is a saying, garbage in garbage out, that is the point I was making.

FintanMcluskey · 01-02-2021 05:57PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's as far from a bad flu season as it is from Spanish flu
Numerous metropolitan regions of the world have seen 3000+ excess deaths per million
Mexico city has seen 6150 excess deaths per million for example, one of the worst affected areas in the world.
A bad flu season will be 200 or so excess deaths per million
Spanish flu was about 20,000-30,000 excess deaths per million on average worldwide
If anything it's closer to spanish flu than bad flu, hence the response worldwide, which you know of course but are far too stubborn to ever admit even though it's obviously the case

Is there a case that modern diet have left a significant portion of those populations at risk?

This whole crisis has been magnified in areas where obesity and secondary illness related to obesity like diabetes are prevalent.

The NHS have seen that BAME healthcare workers have been disproportionately effected by Covid. Those groups are 3 times more likely to suffer from obesity and diabetes.

COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on people of BAME heritage. Ninety four percent of the doctors who have died from COVID-19 were from a BAME background.

I wonder what effect does Covid have on the world if obesity wasn’t as prevalent?

Ironically McDonald’s drive through restaurants appear busier than I’ve ever seen them in Ireland.

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 05:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You will have to ask Public Health England. Pneumonia/ Flu/Covid and the underlying condition would typically be recorded on the death cert.

Ya but I take they don't count a persons death twice, it would either be a cancer death or a flu death.

I am genuinely not trying to antagonize but i do think it is important to make that differential...that could move a lot of deaths from one column to another.

By the way, it should also be pointed out that we are only one year into this, this will be around for at least another 2 or 3 years, so none of us know what countries are performing better than others...a nation might very do very well this flu season but next year they may not on account of the particular demographic that is most affected...we are all just speculating.

Whatsisname · 01-02-2021 05:57PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Maybe South American countries and South Africa did this kind of accounting for and that's why they got a surprise 'seasonal' wave in the middle of summer worse than the first winter wave? So where does that leave us?

Tbf, Patrick Vallance and Chris Witty have talked about the seasonal nature of it.

They are not good, and the scientists effectively spelled them out, with Whitty noting that with the advance of autumn, “the seasons are against us” from the point of view of combating a respiratory illness. He said: “So we should see this as a six-month problem that we have to deal with collectively, it’s not indefinite.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/the-seasons-are-against-us-what-the-uks-top-covid-scientists-said

bb1234567 · 01-02-2021 06:16PM

Whatsisname wrote: »

Tbf, Patrick Vallance and Chris Witty have talked about the seasonal nature of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/the-seasons-are-against-us-what-the-uks-top-covid-scientists-said

There does seem to be a seasonal aspect , of course, but I can completely understand government's reluctance to rely on the predictability of the pattern given that it has not held true in many regions of the world (All of South America)

Silentcorner · 01-02-2021 06:29PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

There does seem to be a seasonal aspect , of course, but I can completely understand government's reluctance to rely on the predictability of the pattern given that it has not held true in many regions of the world (All of South America)

Was there any winter surges in Europe?

01-02-2021 06:30PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

There does seem to be a seasonal aspect , of course, but I can completely understand government's reluctance to rely on the predictability of the pattern given that it has not held true in many regions of the world (All of South America)

It will be seasonal and it will be relatively mild once enough of us have been exposed through infection or vaccine. One winter, where it hits two months earlier than normal does not establish a seasonal pattern

01-02-2021 06:37PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya but I take they don't count a persons death twice, it would either be a cancer death or a flu death.

I am genuinely not trying to antagonize but i do think it is important to make that differential...that could move a lot of deaths from one column to another.

By the way, it should also be pointed out that we are only one year into this, this will be around for at least another 2 or 3 years, so none of us know what countries are performing better than others...a nation might very do very well this flu season but next year they may not on account of the particular demographic that is most affected...we are all just speculating.

Two people with heart disease. One dies of a heart attack and tested positive for Covid, should be recorded as MI with caused by ischemic heart disease with Covid as potential factor. The other dies of respiratory failure following Covid, should be recorded as respiratory failure caused by Covid 19 infection with IHD as a potential factor.

Edit: Unless of course the post-mortem showed myocarditis, in which case patient one would be MI caused by myocarditis caused by Covid 19 with ihd as a contributing factor

Penfailed · 01-02-2021 07:03PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

We can't even recognize that there is a seasonality factor involved, you know, that at certain times of the year, our immune systems are at their weakest.

What? Even the Tánaiste has mentioned that.

walus · 01-02-2021 07:12PM

Two more anecdotes from today.
Spoke to a friend who just came back to work after being diagnosed with cv-19. She said that she had her sample taken on Wednesday morning, but she worked through her shift that day. She also worked the entire next day as if nothing happened. Her test came back positive on Saturday, and 10 days later she was back at work again. She works in a hospital, primarily with very old and sick patients.

We put up an ad looking for someone to take the kids out of the house or do some other activities so that we can actually do some work at home. The ad is up less than a day. 4 people came back. Out of those 4, 2 are primary school teachers. I cried and laughed at the same time.

Wow, just wow. I’m speechless. We are all in this together, next two weeks are critical...you have to laugh at this stage.

Malcomex · 01-02-2021 07:16PM

walus wrote: »

Two more anecdotes from today.
Spoke to a friend who just came back to work after being diagnosed with cv-19. She said that she had her sample taken on Wednesday morning, but she worked through her shift that day. She also worked the entire next day as if nothing happened. Her test came back positive on Saturday, and 10 days later she was back at work again. She works in a hospital, primarily with very old and sick patients.

We put up an ad looking for someone to take the kids out of the house or do some other activities so that we can actually do some work at home. The ad is up less than a day. 4 people came back. Out of those 4, 2 are primary school teachers. I cried and laughed at the same time.

Wow, just wow. I’m speechless. We are all in this together, next two weeks are critical...you have to laugh at this stage.

What does this post mean , I don't understand it?

CalamariFritti · 01-02-2021 07:25PM

I have resigned myself to the fact that its going to be March 5 for now. And probably not all that much will change after that. 5k maybe goes to county. Non essential retail, round of golf. Not much more than that.

Another 3 to 4 weeks after that we should be through with vaccinating the over 70s, HCWs, vulnerable groups. Ca 700k people.

By that time the lockdown and the beginning effect of vaccines will have made a serious impact on the numbers. Serious outcomes with hospitalisation or worse should have fallen off a cliff.

I dont care what the Taoiseach says with regards to a slow opening and him not going to be pressured into anything. I understand that he doesnt want to talk about that today. But there will be pressure come April and his lets-take-it-slow-just-in-case approach will be a hard sell when there are no numbers to back it up with.

FintanMcluskey · 01-02-2021 07:40PM

Tony H suggesting after vaccinations we need to continue with “public health measures” while they keep an eye on the disease.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings