Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Del.Monte wrote: »

But, but ...think of all the employment it would bring?

What?

Whenever there is a referendum in NI (it does seem increasingly to be a case of when, not if, although I'd say it's at least 5 years away), I just hope that the pro-reunification side is honest about what it will entail, and that there will be very real costs to weigh up. Just like Sturgeon should be honest about an independent Scotland will mean from all angles, and Brexiters should have been honest that their ridiculous project wasn't going to be all sunlit uplands, to say the least :rolleyes: Any change to the status quo is going to bring turmoil, at least in the short to medium term.

I read that 30% of the workforce in NI is employed by the public sector, although that's from 2008 so it's hopefully lower now. It's just below 15% in RoI. So are we going to pay for their bloated public sector to continue? Just to cover up their lack of productivity in other areas and continue to kick the can down the road? How much of a tax increase are we in the Republic willing to put up with to accommodate this? How much are the long-term costs of absorbing NI going to be? How much will the EU chip in? These are all the questions I would want answering, with sufficient, realistic detail.

Of course, it's not all about economics. All of this "referendum every 7 years" thing sounds daft. Nationalists are not going to call a referendum unless they are fairly certain they will win it. Surely that's obvious.

I think there are a lot of people like me, who are in no way enthusiastic about reunification, but won't vote against it if the people of NI vote for it, and the situation is reasonably peaceful at the time. It's up to them to decide. Let's all just be honest about what it actually means.

blanch152 wrote: »

I fully expect Sinn Fein to secure the First Minister job after the next Stormont elections. It will be painted as a success for nationalism, but I also expect it to be in the context of a further decline in the nationalist vote taken together with a deeper decline in the DUP vote. The middle ground, occupied by the Northern Ireland identity will increase further. Ultimately, that group will only vote for a united Ireland if it gives the Six Counties more autonomy than they currently have in the UK. That is not the dream peddled by Sinn Fein.

I don't think that is necessarily true, and you can't just lump all of the "middle ground Alliance voters" (generalising here) into people wanting more autonomy.


There is a difference between autonomy and influence, and you could argue the NI residents will have more influence in a UI and that might be enough to persuade these voters. Or some may indeed want more autonomy. Ultimately, I also think these people want to enjoy peace and prosperity. Brexit Britain may undermine these last two things.

breezy1985 wrote: »

I'll admit I don't know the North that well and most of my experience comes from Northern Irish in London but from what I could see a sizable amount of the NI citizens under 30 only ever seemed to identify as being Northern Irish with no mention of which side except maybe a little give away about the sport they played growing up.

I really think a lot of them don't care about sectarianism and that leaving the EU will be a big deal for this group as well as traditional right/left and liberal politics

I agree, but the thing people miss, is that that doesn't bring one set identifying as Northern Irish closer to the UK and the other set closer to a UI. They are not going to coalesce together to look for an independent NI. If it is a choice between a UI or the Union they will go with what they identify with most. I.E. kind of irrelevant in a poll.

blanch152 wrote: »

That is a very difficult thing for the extremists on either side to accept.

For the republicans, it means an end to the dream of a unified socialist republic. At best, in the long-term, it means a federated state, which actually means very little in an EU context.

For the loyalists, the link to the Crown will never be the same, direct rule from London an impossible dream too.

In the middle, as the EU gets stronger, an independent Northern Ireland, member of both the Commonwealth and the EU, while developing strong integrated economic ties with the South while maintaining a distinct culture and identity becomes a real possibility. After all, countries like Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg are all members of the EU and smaller than Northern Ireland. Latvia is around the same size.

Not a single political entity has evolved nor looks like evolving looking for a independent NI, because of the reasons I gave for there being no single Northern Ireland identity and because it is meaningless as regards the constitutional question.

100 years of partition has proved without doubt that it cannot govern itself.

blanch152 wrote: »

100 years of partition has actually proved the opposite. It has lasted longer than East Germany, its borders are more consistent than nearly every other European State, it hasn't fallen apart like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslaiva or the Soviet Union. All in all, despite all the criticism, as a statelet, it is a relative success in that context.

Wow. Over 3000 people would diagree if they were still alive.

Not taking the thread down this familiar rabbithole blanch. You believe what you want.

Isabelmaria wrote: »

Just a question, who in the North, in the name of an outdated concept of nationalism, wants to give up the free NHS, much cheaper cost of life, cheap houses, cars , insurance, road tax , great transport infrastructure that is the envy of those in the midlands? i really don't know...

The cheaper cost of life and all that does also come with much lower wages and dole and some parts of the UK really do feel poor and run down compared to ROI and having lived both I never felt an richer in one or the other.
The NHS is the big one and people living in the UK can't even fathom the idea that people have to pay for A&E or pay for a few nights in a hospital bed and I forgot myself just how crap it was here when I came back.
On a plus for the ROI there is the wages, the EU and I would say our education system blows there's out of the water

Wilhelm III wrote: »

The roads are very good, to be fair. But that shouldn't raise the question 'who would want to give up this or that...?', it should raise the question 'why are the roads in the North so damned smooth, and what can we do make the Republic's roads better?'.

The UK pulls in more income tax out one city than we do the whole country and add to that a way higher council tax than we have. We are never going to match the UK on infrastructure spend and shouldn't really try to compare the two.
Not that it completely exonerates us and it's certainly not the fault of tax that we still don't have a motorway or bypassed towns between our 2nd and 3rd biggest city

Markcheese wrote: »

Would there be an opportunity to move to a half way house situation . A more or less autonomous northern ireland ( hopefully still in the eu ) ,that's not exactly joined to the republic ( but more alligned than before ) and not exactly in the uk either ( but probably still being partly funded from westminster) ,
No one gets fully what they want, but hopefully less likely to terribly offend anyone ,
And if handled well heading slowly to a more united Ireland ( or even just a situation where it largely doesn't matter ,isn't an issue for the vast majority )

A condominium is a non-starter. It would require the GFA to be replaced. So unfortunately that's that for your uninformed idea I'm afraid.

Why would Nationalists give up the opportunity for finally achieving reunification in order to placate belligerent Unionists and Partitionists just because a UI is likely in the near future.

Such nonsense.

blanch152 wrote: »

100 years of partition has actually proved the opposite. It has lasted longer than East Germany, its borders are more consistent than nearly every other European State, it hasn't fallen apart like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslaiva or the Soviet Union. All in all, despite all the criticism, as a statelet, it is a relative success in that context.

Gas.

Is this the new talking point for Partitionists?

Don't personally really care on the result to be honest so long as it doesn't negatively impact me or my family on either sides of the border *BUT* what i am looking most forward to is how Sinn Fein will attempt sell their unity vision to the unionist community - their loathing runs deep..

rocketspocket wrote: »

Don't personally really care on the result to be honest so long as it doesn't negatively impact me or my family on either sides of the border *BUT* what i am looking most forward to is how Sinn Fein will attempt sell their unity vision to the unionist community - their loathing runs deep..

It will probably be down to the Irish government to sell the vision to unionists as they will probably trust FF/FG a lot more than SF.
Looking at current NI constituencies all 18 could be turned into 3 seaters under Dail rules Giving them 54 TDs so a UI could someday see unionists in a coalition if anyone down south was brave enough