Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The English couldn't vote on Scottish Independence but their opinion certainly influenced the outcome. I think the rest of the UK will make it plain how they feel about NI, which will influence future funding and treatment.
Everything will be grist to the mill, so to speak.

The main arguments in the Scottish Indyref were:

1. Membership of the EU. With UI, that is predetermined - NI will be in the EU as part of Ireland.

2, The currency. With a UI, the Euro will be the currency.

3. Oil revenues. There are none in NI, except for a few border prospectors. They will be put out of business.

4. Constitution and justice. In a UI, an amended constitution might be needed, but not so much. Justice is much the same system. Some laws might need to be aligned.

Obviously there are other issues. Funding would be the major one for a UI.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Think 32 has just published a list of all the areas where we could build a new and progressive island.
1) Health Service
2) Education
3) Growing the economy/tackling poverty
4) Housing
5) Climate change
6) Pensions for public sector workers in North
7) Transport / Infrastructure improvements particularly in the West
8) Policing & Justice
9) Tackling sectarianism
10) Human Rights

If a feasible and workable plan could be constructed under these headings it would sweep up the votes of the young and progressive. Not s much the negative, unanswerable 'who's gonna pay' but 'do you want to invest in something better?'.

Who or what are Think32?

squeekyduck

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

Sam Russell

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

The GFA does not mention any notion of a UI assuming any part of the UK debt. Now that does not mean the UK Gov will not try to bring in some threat of including such conditions, but I would expect it would be resisted.

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI? Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI? Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

Lots of similar questions need to be settled before a referendum.

Fionn1952

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

No one could possibly answer that. It would form part of the negotiations between the UK and Ireland on the matter, so it couldn't be answered until that negotiation happens.

Many of those arguing in favour of unification will insinuate that the UK would just decide to forgive the NI portion of their debt, many of those arguing in favour of continued partition will give inflated numbers including certain debt obligations that while currently attributed on a per capita basis across the UK couldn't by any reasonable standard be considered and carried over to NI (such as military related expenditure debts and state pensions, to which contributions have already been paid into the UK coffers).

The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.

That being said, and I could be mistaken on this (I haven't looked at figures recently to refresh myself), but I believe the UK debt per capita is lower than that of Ireland, so even if the North carried over it's per capita national debt from the UK, the average per capita debt in Ireland would decrease.

The potentially scarier figure would be the debt to GDP or GNP ratios.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

The GFA does not mention any notion of a UI assuming any part of the UK debt. Now that does not mean the UK Gov will not try to bring in some threat of including such conditions, but I would expect it would be resisted.

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI? Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI? Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

Lots of similar questions need to be settled before a referendum.

The UK will not be able to behave like that - issue threats or financial inducements. The GFA binds them to be impartial and also there is the statment, 'it is for the people of the island of Ireland to decide without outside impediment'

L1011

blanch152 wrote: »

Who or what are Think32?

Allegedly non party unification grouping. Realistically its SF trying to have something not explicitly SF.

cgcsb

squeekyduck wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea on how much UK debt Northern Ireland would have to take on if it joined a UI? This could be used as a scare tactic against a UI, but equally, it would be useful to know how it would impact the ROI debt.

2.5% of the population so maybe 2.5% of the UK debt. It's less debt per head than the ROI already has so overall the new Irish state would overall have a reduced rate of debt per head. As for debt to GDP ratio, well, that's another story.

For what it's worth, the UK will probably just right it off, the quickest and easiest option for them.

Separating Scotland and England, well that's a much more complex issue. Scotland is a lot bigger and a lot wealthier than NI. Scotland's GDP is more than half that of the RoI. NI's GDP(equivalent) is barely an eighth as large as that of the RoI.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Who pays UK pensions due to retired people in NI?

The UK

Who will pay the pensions earned by tax payees while UK employees but become citizens of a UI?

The UK

Will public sector employees miss out on pension rights following a vote for a UI?

No

blanch152

L1011 wrote: »

Allegedly non party unification grouping. Realistically its SF trying to have something not explicitly SF.

Never heard of them, never seen anything from them. Are they anything more than a back of the envelope type organisation?

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The UK




The UK



No

Where has this been agreed?

In relation to the latter point, increases in public service pensions in Ireland have traditionally been linked to increases in pay for the grade in which you retired. That linkage has been loosened in recent years as the government worries about ability to pay. Can you guarantee that in the context of the increased cost of running Northern Ireland that the government won't break that link completely?

FrancieBrady

L1011 wrote: »

Allegedly non party unification grouping. Realistically its SF trying to have something not explicitly SF.

Colin Harvey is a Shinner? Who knew.

https://think32blog.tumblr.com/post/186613110335/statement-from-professor-colin-harvey-28th-july

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

Where has this been agreed?

In relation to the latter point, increases in public service pensions in Ireland have traditionally been linked to increases in pay for the grade in which you retired. That linkage has been loosened in recent years as the government worries about ability to pay. Can you guarantee that in the context of the increased cost of running Northern Ireland that the government won't break that link completely?

Well considering the money paid into those pension funds was paid to the UK government via National Insurance payments, how could anyone but the UK be responsible for them, Blanch?

I would certainly be surprised if NI left the union with no percentage of the UK debt.....but I'm entirely unsurprised that you'd make an effort to exaggerate those figures .

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Well considering the money paid into those pension funds was paid to the UK government via National Insurance payments, how could anyone but the UK be responsible for them, Blanch?

I would certainly be surprised if NI left the union with no percentage of the UK debt.....but I'm entirely unsurprised that you'd make an effort to exaggerate those figures .

Well, those currently on pensions now would obviously retain those pensions and they would expect them to continue to be honoured by the UK Gov, and they certainly will be.

The question is when do those currently contributing transfer to ROI benefits?

There is no provision in the GFA for any transfer of debt to Ireland following a UI vote. I would expect the UK Gov to try it on, but I would expect it to be rejected. More to the point, how long would the UK Gov continue the subvention under the Barnett formula?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Colin Harvey is a Shinner? Who knew.

https://think32blog.tumblr.com/post/186613110335/statement-from-professor-colin-harvey-28th-july

Think32 are a blog? That is all?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Think32 are a blog? That is all?

Eh, what was claimed for it blanch?

Did you read the list, ant comment on it?

Imagine, somebody came up with a list...the cheek of them!

View

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Well considering the money paid into those pension funds was paid to the UK government via National Insurance payments, how could anyone but the UK be responsible for them, Blanch?

I would certainly be surprised if NI left the union with no percentage of the UK debt.....but I'm entirely unsurprised that you'd make an effort to exaggerate those figures .

When the then Irish Free State achieved “independence” (which was actually Dominion status within the Empire - a status that Westminster had the full right to repeal until it waived that right for all Dominions almost fifteen years later), the IFS ended up with the full bill for all pensions in the state and also had to agree to assume “its share of the imperial war debt”.

Anyone assuming that we’d automatically avoid the latter and have the r-U.K. taxpayers paying for the former is engaging in wishful thinking.

rocketspocket

View wrote: »

Anyone assuming that we’d automatically avoid the latter and have the r-U.K. taxpayers paying for the former is engaging in wishful thinking.

a bit of the 'build the wall & Mexico will pay for it' type mentality relating to a UI.

Fionn1952

rocketspocket wrote: »

a bit of the 'build the wall & Mexico will pay for it' type mentality relating to a UI.

Except in this case we are discussing the payment of pensions to which National Insurance contributions have already been paid.

By what logic could these be an Irish responsibility?

Trying to paint expecting the UK government paying pensions for which they received pension contributions as in any way akin to the Build the Wall nonsense is highly facetious.

View wrote: »

When the then Irish Free State achieved “independence” (which was actually Dominion status within the Empire - a status that Westminster had the full right to repeal until it waived that right for all Dominions almost fifteen years later), the IFS ended up with the full bill for all pensions in the state and also had to agree to assume “its share of the imperial war debt”.

Anyone assuming that we’d automatically avoid the latter and have the r-U.K. taxpayers paying for the former is engaging in wishful thinking.

That would be a wonderful rebuttal if I hadn't specifically said I'd be surprised if NI left with no share of the UK National debt, so I'm certainly not assuming we would automatically avoid the latter.

The situation with NI differs greatly from the foundation of the Irish Free State, one being the subject of an international treaty in which the British government have stated they have no selfish or strategic interest in NI, and it is for the people of Ireland alone to decide.

View

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Except in this case we are discussing the payment of pensions to which National Insurance contributions have already been paid.

By what logic could these be an Irish responsibility?

Trying to paint expecting the UK government paying pensions for which they received pension contributions as in any way akin to the Build the Wall nonsense is highly facetious.



That would be a wonderful rebuttal if I hadn't specifically said I'd be surprised if NI left with no share of the UK National debt, so I'm certainly not assuming we would automatically avoid the latter.

The situation with NI differs greatly from the foundation of the Irish Free State, one being the subject of an international treaty in which the British government have stated they have no selfish or strategic interest in NI, and it is for the people of Ireland alone to decide.

Pensions are paid for out of current government spending from the taxes and/or debt that the government takes in. The fact that you paid someone else’s pensions ten or twenty years ago does not guarantee you a pension in ten or twenty years time (and nor does it guarantee you how good a pension it will be).

The blunt reality is that should a UI come about there would be absolutely no reason for a U.K. government to spend its current tax income on people in NI, just as there wasn’t when the IFS became independent. Rather they have every electoral reason to spend their tax income on people in the r-U.K.

Sam Russell

View wrote: »

Pensions are paid for out of current government spending from the taxes and/or debt that the government takes in. The fact that you paid someone else’s pensions ten or twenty years ago does not guarantee you a pension in ten or twenty years time (and nor does it guarantee you how good a pension it will be).

The blunt reality is that should a UI come about there would be absolutely no reason for a U.K. government to spend its current tax income on people in NI, just as there wasn’t when the IFS became independent. Rather they have every electoral reason to spend their tax income on people in the r-U.K.

Currently, someone entitled to a UK pension, resident in Ireland, gets the UK pension - no matter how long they are resident in Ireland or how long ago that pension entitlement goes back. It is even possible that someone who never set foot in the UK or worked in the UK or paid a penny in contributions, would be entitled to a UK pension by way of their spouses contributions. I know someone who benefits from that exact situation.

Entitlement to pensions in the UK is deemed to be by dent of contributions. The UK may use those contributions to fund the odd aircraft carrier, or they may invest them wisely as they suggest people do for private pensions - that is not for the taxpayer to decide.

OK, a contribution to the UK pension pot means a UK pension when one qualifies, and will be paid by the UK Gov. If say a police officer is seconded to Belfast one week prior to retirement and one week prior to a UI, his 40 year pension entitlement will be paid by HMG come what may.

Pensions are not a devolved responsibility so it is central Gov funds that pay for them, not the NI assembly - there is no separate pension system for NI.
People move around the UK, and their contributions are centralised by the Dept. of Work and Pensions.

The real question is what will happen to those nearing retirement in the run up to a UI. Who will pay their pensions?

Fionn1952

Sam Russell wrote: »

Currently, someone entitled to a UK pension, resident in Ireland, gets the UK pension - no matter how long they are resident in Ireland or how long ago that pension entitlement goes back. It is even possible that someone who never set foot in the UK or worked in the UK or paid a penny in contributions, would be entitled to a UK pension by way of their spouses contributions. I know someone who benefits from that exact situation.

Entitlement to pensions in the UK is deemed to be by dent of contributions. The UK may use those contributions to fund the odd aircraft carrier, or they may invest them wisely as they suggest people do for private pensions - that is not for the taxpayer to decide.

OK, a contribution to the UK pension pot means a UK pension when one qualifies, and will be paid by the UK Gov. If say a police officer is seconded to Belfast one week prior to retirement and one week prior to a UI, his 40 year pension entitlement will be paid by HMG come what may.

Pensions are not a devolved responsibility so it is central Gov funds that pay for them, not the NI assembly - there is no separate pension system for NI.
People move around the UK, and their contributions are centralised by the Dept. of Work and Pensions.

The real question is what will happen to those nearing retirement in the run up to a UI. Who will pay their pensions?

I'd imagine they would be in a similar position to me, where they would be entitled to a partial UK pension. I believe at present it is 1/30th for every year to which they contributed via National Insurance payments.

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'd imagine they would be in a similar position to me, where they would be entitled to a partial UK pension. I believe at present it is 1/30th for every year to which they contributed via National Insurance payments.

So, following a UI, the UK will still pay your pension according to UK rules when you retire.

That is the point. You may be entitled to an Irish pension according to the rules that apply to an Irish state pension, again when you retire.

Fionn1952

Sam Russell wrote: »

So, following a UI, the UK will still pay your pension according to UK rules when you retire.

That is the point. You may be entitled to an Irish pension according to the rules that apply to an Irish state pension, again when you retire.

I'm talking about now, as things currently stand, I am entitled to a partial UK pension even though I won't be living in the UK as I paid National Insurance contributions for a number of years. The UK recognise National Insurance contributions made before a person moves from the UK to Ireland and decide on pension eligibility based on the number of National Insurance contributions a person has made.

In the event that unification happened 20 years into someone's working career, they would still have 20 years of National Insurance contributions. It would be very unusual that the British government would treat this differently to how they would treat the National Insurance contributions of someone who moved from Liverpool to Dublin 20 years into their career and who retired living in Ireland.

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'm talking about now, as things currently stand, I am entitled to a partial UK pension even though I won't be living in the UK as I paid National Insurance contributions for a number of years. The UK recognise National Insurance contributions made before a person moves from the UK to Ireland and decide on pension eligibility based on the number of National Insurance contributions a person has made.

In the event that unification happened 20 years into someone's working career, they would still have 20 years of National Insurance contributions. It would be very unusual that the British government would treat this differently to how they would treat the National Insurance contributions of someone who moved from Liverpool to Dublin 20 years into their career and who retired living in Ireland.

That is what I posted.

You work 20 years in the UK, paying NI contributions, and retire 20 years later and get a pension that relates to those contributions - say a 66% UK pension.

You work 20 years in Ireland, paying contributions and on retirement qualify for a 66% Irish state pension.

Now you might be better off than if you worked all of your life in one or other system, but that is the way it could work.

However, if you were living and working in Belfast, and the change from UK to Irish system occurred because of a UI, then there is as issue.

Fionn1952

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is what I posted.

You work 20 years in the UK, paying NI contributions, and retire 20 years later and get a pension that relates to those contributions - say a 66% UK pension.

You work 20 years in Ireland, paying contributions and on retirement qualify for a 66% Irish state pension.

Now you might be better off than if you worked all of your life in one or other system, but that is the way it could work.

However, if you were living and working in Belfast, and the change from UK to Irish system occurred because of a UI, then there is as issue.

Apologies, I misread your post and thought you were suggesting I would only be entitled to an Irish state pension.

I don't see how living and working in Belfast, paying National Insurance contributions, collected by the UK government when the change happened would be an issue. I can't see how it would be any different to living and working in Liverpool for 20 years, paying National Insurance contributions collected by the UK government before moving to Dublin. Ultimately in both scenarios you've spent twenty years living in the UK and paying National Insurance contributions, but now you live in Ireland.

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Apologies, I misread your post and thought you were suggesting I would only be entitled to an Irish state pension.

I don't see how living and working in Belfast, paying National Insurance contributions, collected by the UK government when the change happened would be an issue. I can't see how it would be any different to living and working in Liverpool for 20 years, paying National Insurance contributions collected by the UK government before moving to Dublin. Ultimately in both scenarios you've spent twenty years living in the UK and paying National Insurance contributions, but now you live in Ireland.

I missed a really good bit about UK pensions.

If you worked for 20 years in the UK, and you qualify for a 66% pension, say, and you are married and your spouse has never worked in the UK and made no contributions, then your spouse qualifies individually in their own right for a pension equal to 50% of your own pension, payable for their whole life from when they reach retirement age.

Now is that not a good thing.

Fionn1952

Sam Russell wrote: »

I missed a really good bit about UK pensions.

If you worked for 20 years in the UK, and you qualify for a 66% pension, say, and you are married and your spouse has never worked in the UK and made no contributions, then your spouse qualifies individually in their own right for a pension equal to 50% of your own pension, payable for their whole life from when they reach retirement age.

Now is that not a good thing.

It's a pretty good thing for my wife and I in fairness!

Sam Russell

Fionn1952 wrote: »

It's a pretty good thing for my wife and I in fairness!

I know a couple who are elderly and qualify for the deal. He gets a UK pension on his payments, and she gets a smaller pension in her own right as a spouse based on his contributions, never having worked in the UK. It is very generous, and of course, once you get the pension, you have it forever - well until you shuffle off.

Mind you, the state pensin in the UK is only £175 pw = €195 pw, while the full Irish state pension is €248. Neither is a lot to live on.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

Currently, someone entitled to a UK pension, resident in Ireland, gets the UK pension - no matter how long they are resident in Ireland or how long ago that pension entitlement goes back. It is even possible that someone who never set foot in the UK or worked in the UK or paid a penny in contributions, would be entitled to a UK pension by way of their spouses contributions. I know someone who benefits from that exact situation.

Entitlement to pensions in the UK is deemed to be by dent of contributions. The UK may use those contributions to fund the odd aircraft carrier, or they may invest them wisely as they suggest people do for private pensions - that is not for the taxpayer to decide.

OK, a contribution to the UK pension pot means a UK pension when one qualifies, and will be paid by the UK Gov. If say a police officer is seconded to Belfast one week prior to retirement and one week prior to a UI, his 40 year pension entitlement will be paid by HMG come what may.

Pensions are not a devolved responsibility so it is central Gov funds that pay for them, not the NI assembly - there is no separate pension system for NI.
People move around the UK, and their contributions are centralised by the Dept. of Work and Pensions.

The real question is what will happen to those nearing retirement in the run up to a UI. Who will pay their pensions?

The important word in your post is the first word - currently.

As I described previously that was not the case when the IFS left the U.K. so there was a different situation in the past.

The current situation in U.K. law is, I believe, as a direct result of EU directives written to cover people who retire to another (EU) country. Current U.K. laws are in many parts rolled over EU regulations and EU influenced U.K. laws.

It is a major assumption though that Brexit Britain will continue with its current laws in any area, since many Brexiters are committed to diverging on principle from EU laws (and irrespective of the cost or inconvenience to Britain).

Populism is the name of the game in current U.K. politics and any of the UK’s current laws could easily be sacrificed for the populist vote.

Until such time as a “withdrawal agreement” to cover NI leaving the U.K. and joining a UI is finalised and there is a cast iron guarantee on pensions in NI being paid by the r-U.K. (and, without a corresponding stream of NI contributions going from NI to the U.K. Treasury to help cover part of the cost of those pensions), it would be a major assumption to make that r-U.K. would cover pensions in NI.

Rather the assumption we would have to work on is that the r-U.K. would not cover them and plan accordingly.