Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

A UI might allow some PNSI personnel to transfer to the Gardai - we have had one already.
.

There is a lot more than one down here. If a united Ireland were to happen, the two forces would have to amalgamate, a major problem if you ask me.

Sam Russell

bubblypop wrote: »

There is a lot more than one down here. If a united Ireland were to happen, the two forces would have to amalgamate, a major problem if you ask me.

That was a poke at the Garda Commissioner - get a life.

No, the PNSI could continue on a similar basis as the RIC and the DMP worked prior to independence.

In the UK, they have dozens of Constabularies that all have their own Chief Constable, and are all independent of each other. How does that work?

Shelga

Chips Lovell wrote: »

I'd imagine that (in addition to money and jobs) they'd probably ask that we rejoin the Commonwealth with the Queen as Head of State?

God, I'm no hardcore republican, but absolutely not, to this.

blanch152

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

According to this, 51% want a border poll within 5 years.

I'm not familiar with NI's voting patterns so I'll defer to you there but ultimately the country is having it's democratic will overridden by English nationalists. Unionists have been shown yet another time that the English care not one whit about them.

There's no real reason for NI to follow the UK into artificial irrelevance. That said, I don't know how a border poll can happen without consent from London which won't be before 2024 at the very, very earliest. Even Dublin may be reluctant as Chips Lovell points out.



I don't think you're mad. I think you're looking at the one player who tends to get overlooked in these debates.

My knowledge of Irish affairs is certainly lacking. The question is whether or not the Irish people want to accept such a financial burden on top of the crises in housing and the HSE and whether or not they'll allow romantic nationalism to cloud their judgement.

That opinion poll is an interesting one, particularly the way it has been reported. Most of the attention has been on the 51% that want a border poll in the next five years. However, what is being lost is that some of that 51% includes people who believe, rightly or wrongly, that the poll will strongly favour remaining in the union and therefore a poll deals with the issue for a couple of decades.

What was missed was that support for a united Ireland is at 42% in the poll.

https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

A similar poll by the same company last year showed support for a united Ireland at 45.4%. The fall in a year is more than the margin of error suggesting that it is a real fall. That runs counter to the narrative that Brexit would increase support for a united Ireland. It has also resulted in the gap widening from 1.4% to 5%, again a significant change.

Incidentally, in that poll last year, over 75% supported the idea of a border poll either now or at some time in the future. A different question asked this year, but 51% supporting a poll in the next five years can be read several ways.

If these polls turn into annual events, it will be interesting to see what next year's one reveals, as Brexit settles down.

On the broader pattern of election results in the North, the combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2010 general election in the North was 43%, in 2019 it was 37.7%. Election preferences are splintering in the North in the way that they did here, but rather than a rise in support for fringe and extremist parties, it is the centrist parties like Alliance and the Greens who are seeing increases in the North.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

That was a poke at the Garda Commissioner - get a life.

No, the PNSI could continue on a similar basis as the RIC and the DMP worked prior to independence.

In the UK, they have dozens of Constabularies that all have their own Chief Constable, and are all independent of each other. How does that work?

get a life?
I was responding to a post you made in a genuine and serious way, no need for that.

It would be great if they did stay seperate, but the republican population in the North will want AGS over the PSNI, for sure.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That opinion poll is an interesting one, particularly the way it has been reported. Most of the attention has been on the 51% that want a border poll in the next five years. However, what is being lost is that some of that 51% includes people who believe, rightly or wrongly, that the poll will strongly favour remaining in the union and therefore a poll deals with the issue for a couple of decades.

What was missed was that support for a united Ireland is at 42% in the poll.

https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

A similar poll by the same company last year showed support for a united Ireland at 45.4%. The fall in a year is more than the margin of error suggesting that it is a real fall. That runs counter to the narrative that Brexit would increase support for a united Ireland. It has also resulted in the gap widening from 1.4% to 5%, again a significant change.

Incidentally, in that poll last year, over 75% supported the idea of a border poll either now or at some time in the future. A different question asked this year, but 51% supporting a poll in the next five years can be read several ways.

If these polls turn into annual events, it will be interesting to see what next year's one reveals, as Brexit settles down.

On the broader pattern of election results in the North, the combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2010 general election in the North was 43%, in 2019 it was 37.7%. Election preferences are splintering in the North in the way that they did here, but rather than a rise in support for fringe and extremist parties, it is the centrist parties like Alliance and the Greens who are seeing increases in the North.

Taking the 'don't knows' into account 7% in the Detail and 11% in the most recent one and the fall in support being 3 % shows that some have wavered on the Brexit issue and how it will pan out for the north. Fairly normal and understandable for those who remain to be fully convinced.

cgcsb

Chips Lovell wrote: »

I'd imagine that (in addition to money and jobs) they'd probably ask that we rejoin the Commonwealth with the Queen as Head of State?

No doubt they'd be asked and be promptly rebuked.

ancapailldorcha

blanch152 wrote: »

That opinion poll is an interesting one, particularly the way it has been reported. Most of the attention has been on the 51% that want a border poll in the next five years. However, what is being lost is that some of that 51% includes people who believe, rightly or wrongly, that the poll will strongly favour remaining in the union and therefore a poll deals with the issue for a couple of decades.

What was missed was that support for a united Ireland is at 42% in the poll.

https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

A similar poll by the same company last year showed support for a united Ireland at 45.4%. The fall in a year is more than the margin of error suggesting that it is a real fall. That runs counter to the narrative that Brexit would increase support for a united Ireland. It has also resulted in the gap widening from 1.4% to 5%, again a significant change.

Incidentally, in that poll last year, over 75% supported the idea of a border poll either now or at some time in the future. A different question asked this year, but 51% supporting a poll in the next five years can be read several ways.

If these polls turn into annual events, it will be interesting to see what next year's one reveals, as Brexit settles down.

On the broader pattern of election results in the North, the combined SF/SDLP vote in the 2010 general election in the North was 43%, in 2019 it was 37.7%. Election preferences are splintering in the North in the way that they did here, but rather than a rise in support for fringe and extremist parties, it is the centrist parties like Alliance and the Greens who are seeing increases in the North.

What needs bearing in mind is that we're at least several years away from a border poll so we can't account for how circumstances might alter between now and then and there's also the fact that each side will run a referendum campaign that will sway some moderates.

FrancieBrady

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What needs bearing in mind is that we're at least several years away from a border poll so we can't account for how circumstances might alter between now and then and there's also the fact that each side will run a referendum campaign that will sway some moderates.

Polling for Scottish Independence was running in the mid 30's in 2012 when the referendum was allowed.
What led to the poll was a fall in support for the Union.

blanch152

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What needs bearing in mind is that we're at least several years away from a border poll so we can't account for how circumstances might alter between now and then and there's also the fact that each side will run a referendum campaign that will sway some moderates.

Agreed, but the narrative over the last few years has been that the gap is closing and that Brexit will increase support for a united Ireland. To date, the figures and evidence don't back that up.

Another aspect worth considering is the fear of change. A united Ireland will mean change in every aspect of Northern life from road markings to the length of the school year not to mention all of the financial aspects. The closer you get to such a vote the more this fear of change rises to the fore. It defeated the Scottish independence referendum. The only time it didn't succeed was in the Brexit referendum where the inability of the opposition to highlight the details of the changes the referendum would bring together with the jingoistic exclusionary nationalist approach of the Brexiteers won the day.

ancapailldorcha

blanch152 wrote: »

Agreed, but the narrative over the last few years has been that the gap is closing and that Brexit will increase support for a united Ireland. To date, the figures and evidence don't back that up.

Another aspect worth considering is the fear of change. A united Ireland will mean change in every aspect of Northern life from road markings to the length of the school year not to mention all of the financial aspects. The closer you get to such a vote the more this fear of change rises to the fore. It defeated the Scottish independence referendum. The only time it didn't succeed was in the Brexit referendum where the inability of the opposition to highlight the details of the changes the referendum would bring together with the jingoistic exclusionary nationalist approach of the Brexiteers won the day.

Brexit has only just happened and has placed a wedge between London and Belfast completely unnecessarily.

I don't think people are going to focus on school years or road markings. The Republic is a modern European state. The alternative is to follow the UK into relative decline. I don't see where fear of change comes from in an economic context here. What defeated the IndyRef was the fact that they might be leaving the EU and then it turned out that this was going to be forced on them anyway.

The arguments for Unionism rested in stability as well as getting money from London, Dublin and Brussels. The Conservatives have destroyed this foundation and there isn't a substitute.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Agreed, but the narrative over the last few years has been that the gap is closing and that Brexit will increase support for a united Ireland. To date, the figures and evidence don't back that up.

Another aspect worth considering is the fear of change. A united Ireland will mean change in every aspect of Northern life from road markings to the length of the school year not to mention all of the financial aspects. The closer you get to such a vote the more this fear of change rises to the fore. It defeated the Scottish independence referendum. The only time it didn't succeed was in the Brexit referendum where the inability of the opposition to highlight the details of the changes the referendum would bring together with the jingoistic exclusionary nationalist approach of the Brexiteers won the day.

Again with the suppisition that NI will simply merge into how we do things here.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again with the suppisition that NI will simply merge into how we do things here.

Or maybe they might get us to do things better.

FrancieBrady

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit has only just happened and has placed a wedge between London and Belfast completely unnecessarily.

I don't think people are going to focus on school years or road markings. The Republic is a modern European state. The alternative is to follow the UK into relative decline. I don't see where fear of change comes from in an economic context here. What defeated the IndyRef was the fact that they might be leaving the EU and then it turned out that this was going to be forced on them anyway.

The arguments for Unionism rested in stability as well as getting money from London, Dublin and Brussels. The Conservatives have destroyed this foundation and there isn't a substitute.

The false panicked promises from Cameron etc also helped at the very last minute.

What that will result in is increased support next time out, because none of it came to pass. Same applies here. The GFA is a process, it doesn't stop just because one referendum is defeated. That is why Unionism and partitionism is so fightened of letting the real conversation begin and the first poll happen, because they will have to make promises they know can't be kept.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or maybe they might get us to do things better.

That's the opportunity.

Bishop of hope

banie01 wrote: »

We all know that for a significant portion of N.I's population, the UK matters far more to them, than them to the UK.

Reunification is coming, it's an economic and growing political certainty.

We need to ensure that we can offer a coherent and overarching strategy to embrace it when it comes.
Be it the obvious ones like ensuring Unionist tradition is respected, that parity of esteem means just that.
Or the not so immediately obvious ones such as Healthcare integration. Should we in the Republic use the hope of impending unification to build a better Health Service?
To out NHS the NHS?

What happens with the pensions burden, how do we ensure that a net receiver of UK funds, walks away with something to add to the states pot other than dependents when they leave?

The constitution makes clear what numbers of representatives will accrue to N.I should they join the Republic, but how do we ensure that doesn't result in an embattled minority mindset?
What further amendments to the constitution are needed to keep transition smooth?

The pension burden is not that hard to figure out maybe.
Anyone working in the UK, which NI is at the moment, are fully entitled to their UK pension regardless of whether they reside there or not.
I'll be getting one at some stage I hope.
That whole burden won't fall on the Republic or a UI till further down the line.

breezy1985

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wasn't saying that all that isn't there too. I was just pointing out the presence of guilt with some.

My most common experience would be the same as yours...total ignorance of the history and geography.

I wasn't trying to discredit your story just adding my very different experience

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The false panicked promises from Cameron etc also helped at the very last minute.

What that will result in is increased support next time out, because none of it came to pass. Same applies here. The GFA is a process, it doesn't stop just because one referendum is defeated. That is why Unionism and partitionism is so fightened of letting the real conversation begin and the first poll happen, because they will have to make promises they know can't be kept.

Is it a process? Here is a link you provided earlier in the thread.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is factually wrong. The SoS can call a poll at any time.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/24/a-border-poll-can-be-held-at-any-time-redux/

"Another misconception is that the calling of a border poll would trigger a mechanism whereby a further border poll would occur automatically every seven years."

"It is often claimed that when this time period elapses that a further poll would occur, but this is not what the legislation says : instead, we would be back at the point where the Secretary of State would not call a poll in the absence of circumstances that he feels require one."

Now, I am not saying that I agree with the article, and neither am I saying that it is wrong. However, it is clear that the first referendum may be the only one ever held, especially if it is defeated strongly despite opinion polls showing a close result as that would change the perspective of future SoS. The first referendum may end the debate.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Is it a process? Here is a link you provided earlier in the thread.



"Another misconception is that the calling of a border poll would trigger a mechanism whereby a further border poll would occur automatically every seven years."

"It is often claimed that when this time period elapses that a further poll would occur, but this is not what the legislation says : instead, we would be back at the point where the Secretary of State would not call a poll in the absence of circumstances that he feels require one."

Now, I am not saying that I agree with the article, and neither am I saying that it is wrong. However, it is clear that the first referendum may be the only one ever held, especially if it is defeated strongly despite opinion polls showing a close result as that would change the perspective of future SoS. The first referendum may end the debate.

A border poll cannot be called within 7 years of the previous one. That's what the GFA says.

It doesn't mean that the schedule is one every 7 years after the first one has been.

If a poll is narrowly defeated you would logically assume that the SoS, as he is obliged, would order another one should the same criteria that caused the previous one to be called, would arise again.

But it's all supposition. So we just wait on the first one to called...

You can panic then.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Is it a process? Here is a link you provided earlier in the thread.



"Another misconception is that the calling of a border poll would trigger a mechanism whereby a further border poll would occur automatically every seven years."

"It is often claimed that when this time period elapses that a further poll would occur, but this is not what the legislation says : instead, we would be back at the point where the Secretary of State would not call a poll in the absence of circumstances that he feels require one."

Now, I am not saying that I agree with the article, and neither am I saying that it is wrong. However, it is clear that the first referendum may be the only one ever held, especially if it is defeated strongly despite opinion polls showing a close result as that would change the perspective of future SoS. The first referendum may end the debate.

Anything is possible.

Other than that not sure what you are trying to say.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

A border poll cannot be called within 7 years of the previous one. That's what the GFA says.

It doesn't mean that the schedule is one every 7 years after the first one has been.

If a poll is narrowly defeated you would logically assume that the SoS, as he is obliged, would order another one should the same criteria that caused the previous one to be called, would arise again.

But it's all supposition. So we just wait on the first one to called...

You can panic then.

The Scottish Independence campaign got a referendum when they showed 30-35% in the polls. The SoS can call a referendum at any time he/she likes as the expert opinion shows, so that could be tomorrow based on the numbers in the polls. Like Scotland I would expect Union support to fall as Brexit bites.

cgcsb

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Scottish Independence campaign got a referendum when they showed 30-35% in the polls. The SoS can call a referendum at any time he/she likes as the expert opinion shows, so that could be tomorrow based on the numbers in the polls. Like Scotland I would expect Union support to fall as Brexit bites.

The results of the 2022 election can be a good indicator. Depends how badly England want it. The current Tory government have shown a willingness to push hard against NI unionism. I expect nationalist parties becoming dominant in the assembly is all that will be needed.

Del.Monte

In the unlikely event of Scottish Independence 'we' may need Belfast or Strangford Loughs for the nuclear submarines so another reason to hold on to the north.

breezy1985

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Scottish Independence campaign got a referendum when they showed 30-35% in the polls.

But that only tells part of the story. SNP votes were rising steadily and the had a landslide in Holyrood on an independence ticket in 2011 and have had close to a monopoly in Westminster ever since

Forget the polls the real turning point will be if Sinn Fein secure the First Minister job and if the exclusively right wing unionists keep bleeding votes to the moderate Alliance Party

cgcsb

Del.Monte wrote: »

In the unlikely event of Scottish Independence 'we' may need Belfast or Strangford Loughs for the nuclear submarines so another reason to hold on to the north.

I thought it was up to the people of NI what their constitutional future is?

blanch152

breezy1985 wrote: »

But that only tells part of the story. SNP votes were rising steadily and the had a landslide in Holyrood on an independence ticket in 2011 and have had close to a monopoly in Westminster ever since

Forget the polls the real turning point will be if Sinn Fein secure the First Minister job and if the exclusively right wing unionists keep bleeding votes to the moderate Alliance Party

I fully expect Sinn Fein to secure the First Minister job after the next Stormont elections. It will be painted as a success for nationalism, but I also expect it to be in the context of a further decline in the nationalist vote taken together with a deeper decline in the DUP vote. The middle ground, occupied by the Northern Ireland identity will increase further. Ultimately, that group will only vote for a united Ireland if it gives the Six Counties more autonomy than they currently have in the UK. That is not the dream peddled by Sinn Fein.

FrancieBrady

breezy1985 wrote: »

But that only tells part of the story. SNP votes were rising steadily and the had a landslide in Holyrood on an independence ticket in 2011 and have had close to a monopoly in Westminster ever since

Forget the polls the real turning point will be if Sinn Fein secure the First Minister job and if the exclusively right wing unionists keep bleeding votes to the moderate Alliance Party

It will be a combination, I agree. SDLP ramping up the UI talk will factor in too.

Del.Monte

cgcsb wrote: »

I thought it was up to the people of NI what their constitutional future is?

But, but ...think of all the employment it would bring?

irish_goat

Del.Monte wrote: »

In the unlikely event of Scottish Independence 'we' may need Belfast or Strangford Loughs for the nuclear submarines so another reason to hold on to the north.

No chance the British government would waste the money (and political energy) putting nuclear subs in Irish water.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

I fully expect Sinn Fein to secure the First Minister job after the next Stormont elections. It will be painted as a success for nationalism, but I also expect it to be in the context of a further decline in the nationalist vote taken together with a deeper decline in the DUP vote. The middle ground, occupied by the Northern Ireland identity will increase further. Ultimately, that group will only vote for a united Ireland if it gives the Six Counties more autonomy than they currently have in the UK. That is not the dream peddled by Sinn Fein.

You really need to accept that the 'Northern Irish' dentity thing is not a cohesive identity. It is people from both sides moving away from their 'side' but not closer to one another.

It's a nuance everybody gets if they know the north.