Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

blanch152

murphaph wrote: »

Before Brexit I would have likely voted against unification at this stage. I would have wanted to see broad protestant acceptance of a UI before Brexit has changed the dynamic for me. It has added a sense of urgency.

Sharing the island with a fellow EU member state with similar enough outlook was one thing. We could have slowly allowed demographics and societal changes in NI and indeed the RoI to bring about unification in an ordered and calm way.

Now I don't see a fellow EU member state or even a state I really recognise anymore. The UK (or at least its government) seems alien to me. I couldn't imagine for example, ever moving there to work now. It's a cold, foreign looking place to me now. I last visited in 2017. We spent a week in Wales and to be honest I got sick of people telling me, a foreigner and EU national, how great it would be to be shot of the EU. I have nothing much in common with these people, despite a common language.

If I was asked to vote on unification tomorrow I would vote in favour. Let English nationalists wreak havoc on their own island. The Scots can decide for themselves if they want in or out.

I don't know how many people share my sentiments but in my own family I'm not the only one who has changed position on this.

If you are so against the UK, why would you be in favour of merging with a part of it?

The same arguments apply, it is a different country.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, yes they are, for public servants.

How will we maintain a two-tier system for public servants?

That would've been a REALLY incisive point if my post was exclusively referring to public servants, Blanch. The average household income in Longford is lower than the average household income in Dublin. A simple fact.

I don't see a tiered approach to public service pay as the great impossibility you think it is. London weighting in the UK for example. The private sector manages it just fine. I think something like London weighting at least should be considered regardless of unification, with the rising costs of living in Dublin (and my own employment is not in any way government funded, so it isn't a case of looking for something for myself). I'd be interested in exploring the administrative costs of setting salaries for public servants on a LAU basis in the long term too.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Who would trust a Tory Gov

With regards to Ireland, I think my sentiments could be summed up pretty aptly with that fraction of a sentence.

breatheme

blanch152 wrote: »

If you are so against the UK, why would you be in favour of merging with a part of it?

The same arguments apply, it is a different country.

I think it was heavily implied that the poster you're quoting was IN Northern Ireland, so they'd be voting to merge their part of the UK with Ireland.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, yes they are, for public servants.

How will we maintain a two-tier system for public servants?

We won't.

runawaybishop

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We won't.

Well, we already do. There are multiple tiers currently, pre 95, post 2012 etc.

BonnieSituation

runawaybishop wrote: »

Well, we already do. There are multiple tiers currently, pre 95, post 2012 etc.

As a former post-95 son of a pre-95er, who's soon to become a post-2012er, I'm more than aware of those particular distinctions.

But given what they relate to and the inference that our Partitionist friend was alluding to, my point stands.

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

As a former post-95 son of a pre-95er, who's soon to become a post-2012er, I'm more than aware of those particular distinctions.

But given what they relate to and the inference that our Partitionist friend was alluding to, my point stands.

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

I agree with you that public sector contracts will have to be harmonised, but who is going to pay for that, as it certainly is not a factor that the republicans have factored in.

Perhaps a five-year pay freeze in the South will do it. Try that out with Forsa and INTO.

L1011

UK has London Loading, so they couldn't really object to an ROI Loading being applied for the exact same reasons...

rocketspocket

L1011 wrote: »

UK has London Loading, so they couldn't really object to an ROI Loading being applied for the exact same reasons...

I would expect that 30-50% of the civil servant in NI will be let go what with the integration of services with the south.. that & for the one that do retain their job, you'll be saying to them 'welcome to the new ireland but your colleagues the 26 are to be paid more'

Markcheese

BonnieSituation wrote: »

A condominium is a non-starter. It would require the GFA to be replaced. So unfortunately that's that for your uninformed idea I'm afraid.

Why would Nationalists give up the opportunity for finally achieving reunification in order to placate belligerent Unionists and Partitionists just because a UI is likely in the near future.

Such nonsense.

Because if we end up with a violent beligerant large minority of unionists being forced to join the Irish state , then I ( as a nationalist) will be voting no when we vote on the same issue ,
And yes it's an uninformed position ,which was why I asked a question ...
Such arrogance. ,I'm sure it'll take you a long way, but probably not to a united Ireland ..

BonnieSituation

Markcheese wrote: »

Because if we end up with a violent beligerant large minority of unionists being forced to join the Irish state , then I ( as a nationalist) will be voting no when we vote on the same issue ,

So you agree with continuing to give Unionism a veto over the wishes of the majority?

Can you explain how someone is forcing loyalists into a UI when the principle of consent is enshrined in law and is the basis of the GFA to begin with?

A UI can only occur when a majority vote for it in BOTH jurisdictions. No one is being forced into anything.

If anti-democratic loyalists want to kick off, then nothing is gonna stop them except the full force of the law.

And yes it's an uninformed position ,which was why I asked a question ...
Such arrogance. ,I'm sure it'll take you a long way, but probably not to a united Ireland ..

Well, now you've been informed.

This pandering to belligerent Unionists needs to stop. If they had their way we'd be still in the midst of the Troubles. They always have to be dragged kicking and screaming towards the rest of us.

So perhaps you should concern yourself with the wishes of moderates and majority, rather than worry about some hypothetical spide from Carrickfergus.

liamog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There will always be different rights and rewards of course, but the idea that we would unify the country and say to a whole cohort of the unified public sector, "sorry you're on much shítter contracts 'cos of geography", is, and I say this mildly, rather fanciful.

TUPE regulations do cover State and Semi State bodies. A civil servant moving from the employee of the NI Government/British Government to a Unitary Irish State would almost certainly be classed as a Transfer of Undertaking and as such the original pay scale would have to be maintained.

blanch152

rocketspocket wrote: »

I would expect that 30-50% of the civil servant in NI will be let go what with the integration of services with the south.. that & for the one that do retain their job, you'll be saying to them 'welcome to the new ireland but your colleagues the 26 are to be paid more'

Certainly, that is a way to increase support for a united Ireland, isn't it?

Vote for a united Ireland to either lose your job or end up on lower pay than the person doing the exact same job in Tralee.

rocketspocket

blanch152 wrote: »

Certainly, that is a way to increase support for a united Ireland, isn't it?

Vote for a united Ireland to either lose your job or end up on lower pay than the person doing the exact same job in Tralee.

As John Hume said; 'You cant eat a flag'

Sam Russell

If the UK Gov agreed to pay the current level of subvention for say five or ten years following a vote for a UI, and the EU offered a level of regional payments under its various programmes, then the short term economic issues are dealt with, so that just leaves the issue of political integration. That is all possible, and the various bodies could and likely would agree a programme.

Now, outside of economics, what issues are needing dealing with? Policing - that is straightforward. Local authorities - again straight forward in the short term, but a complete reform of LAs is needed now, so a UI would be an impetus for that.

The IDA could be tasked in drumming up FDI and enterprise initiatives to generate jobs driven growth. That could relieve some of the current lack of economic activity. Some of the current public sector employees could be enticed into better paying jobs.

I think nit picking various tax, income issues is silly, because the effect on any agreement would render many of these issues moot.

To get a UI vote to pass, the resulting position should not be overtly negative for anyone. That needs to be guaranteed - like equality of esteem.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the UK Gov agreed to pay the current level of subvention for say five or ten years following a vote for a UI, and the EU offered a level of regional payments under its various programmes, then the short term economic issues are dealt with, so that just leaves the issue of political integration. That is all possible, and the various bodies could and likely would agree a programme.

Now, outside of economics, what issues are needing dealing with? Policing - that is straightforward. Local authorities - again straight forward in the short term, but a complete reform of LAs is needed now, so a UI would be an impetus for that.

The IDA could be tasked in drumming up FDI and enterprise initiatives to generate jobs driven growth. That could relieve some of the current lack of economic activity. Some of the current public sector employees could be enticed into better paying jobs.

I think nit picking various tax, income issues is silly, because the effect on any agreement would render many of these issues moot.

To get a UI vote to pass, the resulting position should not be overtly negative for anyone. That needs to be guaranteed - like equality of esteem.

A five year programme of rationalisation of the PS on both sides would have huge impacts too without causing a whole lot of strife. Embargo on recruitment, early retirement, redeployment, voluntary redundancy are all terms we are familiar with.
Coupled with the British (which I think is and will happen anyway) saying that this will have to take place anyway as they need to cutback.

murphaph

I wouldn't even rule out an active attempt at forcing NI out of the UK by the Tories through budget reductions and public sector redundancies or long term hiring freezes. They have totally morphed into UKIP now. They don't care about NI remaining part of the union. Scotland leaving would upset their egos but NI they couldn't care less about and it might even go down well with English nationalists, fed up of the Barnett formula.

If NI is turned on in this way by UKIP 2.0 then a UI is virtually guaranteed in short order.

Everything has changed now. Anything, no matter how crazy, is possible in Westminster.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A five year programme of rationalisation of the PS on both sides would have huge impacts too without causing a whole lot of strife. Embargo on recruitment, early retirement, redeployment, voluntary redundancy are all terms we are familiar with.
Coupled with the British (which I think is and will happen anyway) saying that this will have to take place anyway as they need to cutback.

Are you serious?

How many public servants vote? And their families and friends? How many of them would vote for a united Ireland to lose their jobs?

I am sure there are a handful of ideologically committed exclusionary nationalists who will die in the ditch for a united Ireland, but they would be a tiny minority.

These are real problems that are not easy to solve.

100 years of divergence can't be waved away in a week or paid for by the current British subvention.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Are you serious?

How many public servants vote? And their families and friends? How many of them would vote for a united Ireland to lose their jobs?

I am sure there are a handful of ideologically committed exclusionary nationalists who will die in the ditch for a united Ireland, but they would be a tiny minority.

These are real problems that are not easy to solve.

100 years of divergence can't be waved away in a week or paid for by the current British subvention.

All it requires is honesty from the British. That the subvention cannot be maintained. They are cutting it alrwady.
The numbers polling in favour would suggest that people realise this.

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All it requires is honesty from the British. That the subvention cannot be maintained. They are cutting it alrwady.
The numbers polling in favour would suggest that people realise this.

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

We had an embargo and wage freezes here, you would think I suggested something novel or unique.

For every solution blanch has a problem yet maintains he wants a UI.

FrancieBrady

Think 32 has just published a list of all the areas where we could build a new and progressive island.
1) Health Service
2) Education
3) Growing the economy/tackling poverty
4) Housing
5) Climate change
6) Pensions for public sector workers in North
7) Transport / Infrastructure improvements particularly in the West
8) Policing & Justice
9) Tackling sectarianism
10) Human Rights

If a feasible and workable plan could be constructed under these headings it would sweep up the votes of the young and progressive. Not s much the negative, unanswerable 'who's gonna pay' but 'do you want to invest in something better?'.

Bishop of hope

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

I thought the big driver was immigration myself.
They didn't want foreigners coming in, being forced in even under EU rules, they had to take them.
They know fine well that economically they were better off in the EU or there'd be a no deal brexit.

liamog

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the driving message on the side of the bus was to be sufficient to leave the EU was a subvention of GB£350 million a week, how big would the drive be to rid themselves of NI that cost GB£12 billion a year, and that is not enough.

I think a bit of austerity might change a few minds, and a lot of austerity would change a lot of minds.

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

FrancieBrady

liamog wrote: »

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

I don't think it will take driving a bus.

breezy1985

liamog wrote: »

So really, those campaigning for a United Ireland should drive a bus around Great Britain pointing out that a "NI Kick Out" will give them £230 million a week for the NHS. We can call it the NIKO campaign.

People don't look at this option enough.

Forget asking unionists to vote to leave we can just get the English to vote to throw them out

liamog

breezy1985 wrote: »

People don't look at this option enough.

Forget asking unionists to vote to leave we can just get the English to vote to throw them out

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

breezy1985

liamog wrote: »

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

I know I was just joking

liamog

breezy1985 wrote: »

I know I was just joking

I just didn't want to scare any our less understanding brethren

FrancieBrady

liamog wrote: »

Fortunately it would be against the GFA. The constitutional status of the North will only be decided by the people of this island.

The English couldn't vote on Scottish Independence but their opinion certainly influenced the outcome. I think the rest of the UK will make it plain how they feel about NI, which will influence future funding and treatment.
Everything will be grist to the mill, so to speak.