Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 7:11pm

The risk of snow in the east has unquestionably diminished for lower levels tomorrow but a wintry mix still seems likely early tomorrow afternoon. It looks very mixed for the rest of the week. A few flakes at times but rain, hail, sleet as well. If I had to choose I think Saturday night may be best chance for more widespread snow showers to lower levels but that's beyond the scope of the thread.

Captain Snow · 19-01-2021 7:12pm

Hopefully some of us see some snow. Higher ground will do well.

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2021 7:22pm

21mm since 6pm yesterday, lawns and garden saturated, fields around us have large pools of water or small ponds, there is 2 small ponds near us that are full to the brim, the boyne has overflowed into fields to, could really do with a few dry days now

Tyrone212 · 19-01-2021 7:38pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Pure rain and 1c at 410 metres! There is no way it’s going to snow anywhere else!

Awful! The freezing level must be really high.

https://streamable.com/1zkqgc

You went up too early. Forecast said it would be later on. More greens showing up on the radar now and one isolated blot of snow ha.

Oneiric 3 · 19-01-2021 8:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The risk of snow in the east has unquestionably diminished for lower levels tomorrow but a wintry mix still seems likely early tomorrow afternoon. It looks very mixed for the rest of the week. A few flakes at times but rain, hail, sleet as well. If I had to choose I think Saturday night may be best chance for more widespread snow showers to lower levels but that's beyond the scope of the thread.

Hello, gentle mortal. Fret not, for I am from the future and bring good tidings! I took this photo tomorrow in Dublin.

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 8:17pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

You went up too early. Forecast said it would be later on. More greens showing up on the radar now and one isolated blot of snow ha.

I’m not very hopeful. The temperature is very stubborn.

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2021 8:53pm

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

21mm since 6pm yesterday, lawns and garden saturated, fields around us have large pools of water or small ponds, there is 2 small ponds near us that are full to the brim, the boyne has overflowed into fields to, could really do with a few dry days now

Just had a further 2.5mm in an hour, just a truly rotten day

igCorcaigh · 19-01-2021 8:54pm

Nice bit of rain pushing into Cork City now.

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 9:22pm

Appears to be 2c just outside Letterkenny. Icon shows widespread back edge snow in Ulster around midnight onwards.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IKILMA16

So, that's something to be positive about!

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2021 9:29pm

Just going through the models and would think the only real chance of snow accumulations would be on the highest ground eg Wicklow Mts or perhaps the tops of the highest hills, looks mainly sleety with maybe a few wet flakes but little to nothing settling on lower ground . Some of the models showing a small bit of snow accumulations in the SE but hard to see this happening with the 850 hPa temps not very cold with a lot of mixing going on? 2m air temps don't look that cold either until later in the day when the precipitation has cleared.
Later tomorrow into Thurs could get a lot of wintry showers along the Atlantic coasts and would expect a lot of mountain tops to be white on Thurs morning through the rest of the week. Could get reports of poor driving conditions on high ground with some frosty nights. A lot of the showers convective in nature with heavy hail showers at times and flurries of snow on higher ground with some moving inland at times. Hit and miss by nature.
Not much chance of anything settling on lower ground for long during the day but some could settle briefly on higher ground during the dark hours. Could get big temperature drops under these showers and some a bit gusty. Could be a few more organized bands of wintry precipitation moving in from the W , NW, N at times. Brighter day in the W of the country tomorrow and some good bright spells for most on Thurs. A few isolated sparks over water or near to coasts perhaps later Weds into Thurs. Just my tuppence worth.

Gaoth Laidir · 19-01-2021 9:37pm

There was never really any chance of any snow away from higher ground. Meteociel charts should come with a major health warning.

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 9:38pm

Is there a front over Donegal or is that just topographical temperature variations?

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 10:11pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There was never really any chance of any snow away from higher ground.

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 10:18pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

It's been quite heavy here. I think you'll find the precipitation is a lot further north than predicted.

nacho libre · 19-01-2021 10:19pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just going through the models and would think the only real chance of snow accumulations would be on the highest ground eg Wicklow Mts or perhaps the tops of the highest hills, looks mainly sleety with maybe a few wet flakes but little to nothing settling on lower ground . Some of the models showing a small bit of snow accumulations in the SE but hard to see this happening with the 850 hPa temps not very cold with a lot of mixing going on? 2m air temps don't look that cold either until later in the day when the precipitation has cleared.
Later tomorrow into Thurs could get a lot of wintry showers along the Atlantic coasts and would expect a lot of mountain tops to be white on Thurs morning through the rest of the week. Could get reports of poor driving conditions on high ground with some frosty nights. A lot of the showers convective in nature with heavy hail showers at times and flurries of snow on higher ground with some moving inland at times. Hit and miss by nature.
Not much chance of anything settling on lower ground for long during the day but some could settle briefly on higher ground during the dark hours. Could get big temperature drops under these showers and some a bit gusty. Could be a few more organized bands of wintry precipitation moving in from the W , NW, N at times. Brighter day in the W of the country tomorrow and some good bright spells for most on Thurs. A few isolated sparks over water or near to coasts perhaps later Weds into Thurs. Just my tuppence worth.

Sounds like a repeat of what we had in December. Mind you i did get a dusting at one stage, so maybe some snow could settle at night again

Gaoth Laidir · 19-01-2021 10:26pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

I disagree. It looks the same now as it did on the weekend. Maybe the GFS added a degree but that's what it always does closer to the time, given its cold bias. ECM and ICON soundings are looking the same now as then.

Hope we see something but really can't see proper snow falling below 200 metres. Might have a better chance in heavier showers towards the end of the week.

Larbre34 · 19-01-2021 10:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

19-01-2021 10:38pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

Lots of inland parts of wickow,including towns like Rathdrum and Tinahely and obviously Roundwood would see snow in that scenario

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2021 10:42pm

Significant downgrade on the 18z gfs run for tomorrow.
Little if any snowfall now predicted.
Though as Kermit said earlier things look less marginal over the weekend!!

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 11:00pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

Yeah. The airmass is pretty saturated. And temperatures are dropping slowly.

lolie · 19-01-2021 11:01pm

33mm in the gauge since early yesterday and still miserable and drizzly out so it should rise further.
There's been a noticeable drop in temperatures this evening, from 10c at 8pm its now down to 5c. South Cavan

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2021 11:19pm

lolie wrote: »

33mm in the gauge since early yesterday and still miserable and drizzly out so it should rise further.
There's been a noticeable drop in temperatures this evening, from 10c at 8pm its now down to 5c. South Cavan

27mm for me in meath and no temp drop yet, 9.8c, very breezy now to since the rain cleared, really dont need more rain now for at least a week

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 11:22pm

3c here and 20mm

Goldfinch8 · 19-01-2021 11:27pm

Measured 44mm in my own gauge in the 24 hour period between 6pm yesterday eve and 6pm today. We seemed stuck under that weather front for most of the day in this part of Central Mayo. An absolute washout of a day. Plenty of water lying on the land again and local streams and rivers were rocketing up during the day. Temperature has dropped to 5c here also now.
Those bright, crisp and frosty days from earlier on in the month feel like a lifetime ago on days like today.

19-01-2021 11:30pm

Just 4mm here in Arklow
Currently 10.2c

Nqp15hhu · 20-01-2021 12:21am

This is the best I could muster tonight. Video taken at 320 metres.

It was 1c and sleeting but there was globs of snow landing on the window, melting instantly. Very close to snow.

https://streamable.com/08xwhn

giveitholly · 20-01-2021 12:23am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

This is the best I could muster tonight. Video taken at 320 metres.

It was 1c and sleeting but there was globs of snow landing on the window, melting instantly. Very close to snow.

https://streamable.com/08xwhn

Do you have to drive up a mountain each time to see if its snowing?

Nqp15hhu · 20-01-2021 12:24am

giveitholly wrote: »

Do you have to drive up a mountain each time to see if its snowing?

Excuse me?

ninebeanrows · 20-01-2021 12:27am

Prime spots for tomorrow to see some sneachta probably south Dublin/Wicklow, east Kildare, Carlow type area.

Whilst there has been some subtle changes in recent runs there still remains a risk, i'd probably place it at 40% for lying snow to low levels in these areas ( from around noon through 5pm).

Prob 10-20% risk for more general Dublin area.

It's a chance and one to watch, it's the type of event that will keep us interested, this is the game at the end of the day, if it was easy we wouldn't be here.

giveitholly · 20-01-2021 12:27am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Excuse me?

You often say you are at a certain height when reporting,so was just wondering do you drive up the side of a mountain/hill to see how low the snow line might be?

Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Comments