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Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Kermit.de.frog

Thread for flooding potential Connaught, North Leinster, South Ulster through Monday night/Tuesday/first half of Wednesday.

Heavy snow potential second half of Wednesday particularly Leinster and Munster. Much colder by evening.

Surprised a thread wasn't started for the flood potential. Will update this OP in the morning.

Interesting 48 hours to come from tonight to say the least.

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Nqp15hhu

Appears to be 2c just outside Letterkenny. Icon shows widespread back edge snow in Ulster around midnight onwards.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IKILMA16

So, that's something to be positive about!

igCorcaigh

Nice bit of rain pushing into Cork City now.

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

21mm since 6pm yesterday, lawns and garden saturated, fields around us have large pools of water or small ponds, there is 2 small ponds near us that are full to the brim, the boyne has overflowed into fields to, could really do with a few dry days now

Just had a further 2.5mm in an hour, just a truly rotten day

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

You went up too early. Forecast said it would be later on. More greens showing up on the radar now and one isolated blot of snow ha.

I’m not very hopeful. The temperature is very stubborn.

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The risk of snow in the east has unquestionably diminished for lower levels tomorrow but a wintry mix still seems likely early tomorrow afternoon. It looks very mixed for the rest of the week. A few flakes at times but rain, hail, sleet as well. If I had to choose I think Saturday night may be best chance for more widespread snow showers to lower levels but that's beyond the scope of the thread.

Hello, gentle mortal. Fret not, for I am from the future and bring good tidings! I took this photo tomorrow in Dublin.

Tyrone212

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Pure rain and 1c at 410 metres! There is no way it’s going to snow anywhere else!

Awful! The freezing level must be really high.

https://streamable.com/1zkqgc

You went up too early. Forecast said it would be later on. More greens showing up on the radar now and one isolated blot of snow ha.

Rock Lesnar

21mm since 6pm yesterday, lawns and garden saturated, fields around us have large pools of water or small ponds, there is 2 small ponds near us that are full to the brim, the boyne has overflowed into fields to, could really do with a few dry days now

Captain Snow

Hopefully some of us see some snow. Higher ground will do well.

Kermit.de.frog

The risk of snow in the east has unquestionably diminished for lower levels tomorrow but a wintry mix still seems likely early tomorrow afternoon. It looks very mixed for the rest of the week. A few flakes at times but rain, hail, sleet as well. If I had to choose I think Saturday night may be best chance for more widespread snow showers to lower levels but that's beyond the scope of the thread.

Danno

Anyone remember using these charts back in the 'ol days!

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Pure rain and 1c at 410 metres! There is no way it’s going to snow anywhere else!

Awful! The freezing level must be really high.

https://streamable.com/1zkqgc

It was at 1563 m amsl at Castor Bay at 12Z.

[Deleted User]

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Pure rain and 1c at 410 metres! There is no way it’s going to snow anywhere else!

Awful! The freezing level must be really high.

https://streamable.com/1zkqgc

In what timeframe?

Planet X

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Table-Mountain-County-Wicklow/forecasts/701

Nqp15hhu

Pure rain and 1c at 410 metres! There is no way it’s going to snow anywhere else!

Awful! The freezing level must be really high.

https://streamable.com/1zkqgc

M.T. Cranium

I would say the chances for snow in Dublin and populated areas of Kildare and Laois is something like one in three, the chances more like three in four for snow above 250m and nearly certain above 400m.

Models are still struggling with details on this complex storm (which becomes Cristoph mainly for Britain on Thursday).

Several including Arpege and Hirlam show low pressure deepening west of Scotland eventually, with the Cristoph low weaker than on other guidance (located east of Newcastle England).

The GFS and GEM indicate only one low consolidating and that one in the North Sea, just cyclonic flow from northwest into Ulster, whereas the other models would suggest more of a westerly flow with greater trough enhancement.

Not sure which is better for snow prospects by Wed night or Thursday in Ulster, as one has more energy and the other has colder air. But would suggest there should be at least some snowfalls down to 150m or so in Ulster.

Getting back to the Dublin snow potential, that seems to depend on whether or not the back edge of this developing event will be both (a) moist enough and (b) cold enough for snow. There's a scenario where there's only drizzle and not even much rain in that stage, and another scenario where it keeps raining until near the end where it mixes but melts on contact.

I think that latter option is the most likely outcome but can't rule out a better option with a nice 3-5 cm snow cover at the end of the rainfall. Thursday should be cold enough that any wintry showers have nearly equal chances of being hail, sleet or snow.

With the range of uncertainty on Cristoph, there are still solutions buried in the mix which would see that low bombing out a bit early and that might be a good scenario for Ireland to see more snow than expected. Most guidance waits until the low is over the North Sea before really developing the circulation, but I could see where it might start bombing out as it crosses the Pennines (rather used to mountain wave development around here).

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

A better chance later on I think. Keep an eye on the temperature and the radar for greens/pink.

I just want to get out before the sunsets.

[Deleted User]

The Met Éireann advisory is clever. They don't have one for tomorrow explicitly but

Turning colder from Wednesday with weather conditions becoming increasingly wintry for the rest of the week. Risk of frost and icy conditions, with falls of sleet or snow at times.

From Wednesday could be any time on Wednesday, or after Wednesday, its fairly ambiguous. So this covers snowy conditions tomorrow, or a hail shower anywhere and anytime from tomorrow to Friday.

Reckless Abandonment

pad199207 wrote: »

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Turning colder from Wednesday with weather conditions becoming increasingly wintry for the rest of the week. Risk of frost and icy conditions, with falls of sleet or snow at times.

Valid: 00:00 Wednesday 20/01/2021 to 23:59 Sunday 24/01/2021

Issued: 14:00 Tuesday 19/01/2021

Tyrone212

Tonight
Outbreaks of rain will continue in many areas tonight, turning to sleet or snow at times over high ground in Ulster. Rain may turn heavy in southern coastal counties before dawn. Holding mild in the south for much of the night, however much colder air to the north with lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees will slowly sink southwards overnight with some frost forming. Fresh southwest breezes will become light northerly.

Tomorrow
On Wednesday morning, rain will become confined to the east and south where it may be heavy for a time near southeastern coasts. It will become brighter across the west and north with sunny spells and scattered showers, some wintry. Remaining cloudy in the east as rain lingers in Leinster, turning to sleet or snow at times in the afternoon. Highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees with a moderate northwest breeze.

Tyrone212

Today's rain band looks a good bit further North than was forecast. Some charts yesterday had 0mm for Malin head.

Tyrone212

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Temperatures appear to be around 3c in Inishowen, not sure if that is a cooling or not. Still 4c here. Not sure if I should drive to 400 metres or not.

A better chance later on I think. Keep an eye on the temperature and the radar for greens/pink.

pauldry

esposito wrote: »

Nice to see snow mentioned on the weather advisory but doubt many places will see it. Probably northern and western counties only. Hope I’m wrong though

Edit: of course southeastern counties could see snow tomorrow but still 50/50

Hope your right

Nqp15hhu

Temperatures appear to be around 3c in Inishowen, not sure if that is a cooling or not. Still 4c here. Not sure if I should drive to 400 metres or not.

esposito

pad199207 wrote: »

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Turning colder from Wednesday with weather conditions becoming increasingly wintry for the rest of the week. Risk of frost and icy conditions, with falls of sleet or snow at times.

Valid: 00:00 Wednesday 20/01/2021 to 23:59 Sunday 24/01/2021

Issued: 14:00 Tuesday 19/01/2021

Nice to see snow mentioned on the weather advisory but doubt many places will see it. Probably northern and western counties only. Hope I’m wrong though

Edit: of course southeastern counties could see snow tomorrow but still 50/50

[Deleted User]

There's a puddle forming in the road in front of my house.

Kunta Kinte

OldRio wrote: »

The land is utterly saturated. Flooding.

Where?

pad199207

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Turning colder from Wednesday with weather conditions becoming increasingly wintry for the rest of the week. Risk of frost and icy conditions, with falls of sleet or snow at times.

Valid: 00:00 Wednesday 20/01/2021 to 23:59 Sunday 24/01/2021

Issued: 14:00 Tuesday 19/01/2021

Storm 10

Bucketing down in Galway terrible day very dark

Nqp15hhu

It is 2.5c at 300 metres... trying to make sure my drive would be worthwhile. At what surface temp would I need to be to be guaranteed snow at 400m?

The airmass is very saturated. My humidity is 97%.

Gonzo

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Well it looks like the precipitation will be over much of the east coast tomorrow, but it seems much more muted now the prospect it will fall as snow at any stage to low levels. What is the current thinking of board members? From a Dublin perspective I am going to say no cigar unless you in the foothills.

I doubt many places are going to see snow except maybe a few inland parts of the SE and high ground and just briefly before the rain clears, could well be light and patchy by then too. Not expecting anything here in Meath and even if it did snow temporarily the ground is as saturated as I've ever seen it during the wettest of winters, so very little chance of anything sticking.