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Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Kermit.de.frog

Thread for flooding potential Connaught, North Leinster, South Ulster through Monday night/Tuesday/first half of Wednesday.

Heavy snow potential second half of Wednesday particularly Leinster and Munster. Much colder by evening.

Surprised a thread wasn't started for the flood potential. Will update this OP in the morning.

Interesting 48 hours to come from tonight to say the least.

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heffoo

AuntySnow wrote: »

Yup !
I'd say you'd see it there before the likes of rathdrum or tinahely
Their chances are proximity to high ground
You have the high ground and the proximity to higher!
Please check in frequently tomorrow and let us know how it's going
To be honest it's very very knife edge
Not expecting any down in Arklow bar some shleet maybe

Will do I’m slightly higher outside the village around 270 mtrs asl so fingers crossed. Tinahely is always hit and miss we could be in blizzards up here and it could be raining away there and it’s only a few mins drive

[Deleted User]

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

And who would that be?

He's talking about ensemble members..(perturbations) not posters...

[Deleted User]

heffoo wrote: »

Or knockananna hopefully

Yup !
I'd say you'd see it there before the likes of rathdrum or tinahely
Their chances are proximity to high ground
You have the high ground and the proximity to higher!
Please check in frequently tomorrow and let us know how it's going
To be honest it's very very knife edge
Not expecting any down in Arklow bar some shleet maybe

pad199207

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

1 member would bring 3cm of lying snow to Dublin City centre, a thought we can dwell on for the night!

The teeniest bit of hope

giveitholly

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s a change of tone.. no I only drive up a local hill when it’s marginal just to see where the snowline is.

No sure what you mean by tone.... I only asked a question, anyway thanks for answering

Nqp15hhu

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

1 member would bring 3cm of lying snow to Dublin City centre, a thought we can dwell on for the night!

And who would that be?

ninebeanrows

1 member would bring 3cm of lying snow to Dublin City centre, a thought we can dwell on for the night!

heffoo

AuntySnow wrote: »

Lots of inland parts of wickow,including towns like Rathdrum and Tinahely and obviously Roundwood would see snow in that scenario

Or knockananna hopefully

Nqp15hhu

giveitholly wrote: »

You often say you are at a certain height when reporting,so was just wondering do you drive up the side of a mountain/hill to see how low the snow line might be?

That’s a change of tone.. no I only drive up a local hill when it’s marginal just to see where the snowline is.

giveitholly

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Excuse me?

You often say you are at a certain height when reporting,so was just wondering do you drive up the side of a mountain/hill to see how low the snow line might be?

ninebeanrows

Prime spots for tomorrow to see some sneachta probably south Dublin/Wicklow, east Kildare, Carlow type area.

Whilst there has been some subtle changes in recent runs there still remains a risk, i'd probably place it at 40% for lying snow to low levels in these areas ( from around noon through 5pm).

Prob 10-20% risk for more general Dublin area.

It's a chance and one to watch, it's the type of event that will keep us interested, this is the game at the end of the day, if it was easy we wouldn't be here.

Nqp15hhu

giveitholly wrote: »

Do you have to drive up a mountain each time to see if its snowing?

Excuse me?

giveitholly

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

This is the best I could muster tonight. Video taken at 320 metres.

It was 1c and sleeting but there was globs of snow landing on the window, melting instantly. Very close to snow.

https://streamable.com/08xwhn

Do you have to drive up a mountain each time to see if its snowing?

Nqp15hhu

This is the best I could muster tonight. Video taken at 320 metres.

It was 1c and sleeting but there was globs of snow landing on the window, melting instantly. Very close to snow.

https://streamable.com/08xwhn

[Deleted User]

Just 4mm here in Arklow
Currently 10.2c

Goldfinch8

Measured 44mm in my own gauge in the 24 hour period between 6pm yesterday eve and 6pm today. We seemed stuck under that weather front for most of the day in this part of Central Mayo. An absolute washout of a day. Plenty of water lying on the land again and local streams and rivers were rocketing up during the day. Temperature has dropped to 5c here also now.
Those bright, crisp and frosty days from earlier on in the month feel like a lifetime ago on days like today.

Nqp15hhu

3c here and 20mm

Rock Lesnar

lolie wrote: »

33mm in the gauge since early yesterday and still miserable and drizzly out so it should rise further.
There's been a noticeable drop in temperatures this evening, from 10c at 8pm its now down to 5c. South Cavan

27mm for me in meath and no temp drop yet, 9.8c, very breezy now to since the rain cleared, really dont need more rain now for at least a week

lolie

33mm in the gauge since early yesterday and still miserable and drizzly out so it should rise further.
There's been a noticeable drop in temperatures this evening, from 10c at 8pm its now down to 5c. South Cavan

Nqp15hhu

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

Yeah. The airmass is pretty saturated. And temperatures are dropping slowly.

JanuarySnowstor

Significant downgrade on the 18z gfs run for tomorrow.
Little if any snowfall now predicted.
Though as Kermit said earlier things look less marginal over the weekend!!

[Deleted User]

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

Lots of inland parts of wickow,including towns like Rathdrum and Tinahely and obviously Roundwood would see snow in that scenario

Larbre34

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

No, they should not. They may.

Anything wintry below 150-250 is remote.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

I disagree. It looks the same now as it did on the weekend. Maybe the GFS added a degree but that's what it always does closer to the time, given its cold bias. ECM and ICON soundings are looking the same now as then.

Hope we see something but really can't see proper snow falling below 200 metres. Might have a better chance in heavier showers towards the end of the week.

nacho libre

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just going through the models and would think the only real chance of snow accumulations would be on the highest ground eg Wicklow Mts or perhaps the tops of the highest hills, looks mainly sleety with maybe a few wet flakes but little to nothing settling on lower ground . Some of the models showing a small bit of snow accumulations in the SE but hard to see this happening with the 850 hPa temps not very cold with a lot of mixing going on? 2m air temps don't look that cold either until later in the day when the precipitation has cleared.
Later tomorrow into Thurs could get a lot of wintry showers along the Atlantic coasts and would expect a lot of mountain tops to be white on Thurs morning through the rest of the week. Could get reports of poor driving conditions on high ground with some frosty nights. A lot of the showers convective in nature with heavy hail showers at times and flurries of snow on higher ground with some moving inland at times. Hit and miss by nature.
Not much chance of anything settling on lower ground for long during the day but some could settle briefly on higher ground during the dark hours. Could get big temperature drops under these showers and some a bit gusty. Could be a few more organized bands of wintry precipitation moving in from the W , NW, N at times. Brighter day in the W of the country tomorrow and some good bright spells for most on Thurs. A few isolated sparks over water or near to coasts perhaps later Weds into Thurs. Just my tuppence worth.

Sounds like a repeat of what we had in December. Mind you i did get a dusting at one stage, so maybe some snow could settle at night again

Nqp15hhu

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

It's been quite heavy here. I think you'll find the precipitation is a lot further north than predicted.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There was never really any chance of any snow away from higher ground.

I disagree and there is still a good chance of an hour or two back edge snow tomorrow in southeastern counties in particular and it won't be exclusively high ground.

The real problem has nothing to do with Meteociel charts and everything to do with the fact a degree or two has been added to the wrap-around airmass temperatures along with precipitation not being quite as intense as originally thought because a good portion remains off shore.

I'm not ruling out a surprise for some tomorrow. Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois and east Waterford along with Dublin should see some flakes tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: forgot east Kildare

Nqp15hhu

Is there a front over Donegal or is that just topographical temperature variations?

Gaoth Laidir

There was never really any chance of any snow away from higher ground. Meteociel charts should come with a major health warning.

Meteorite58

Just going through the models and would think the only real chance of snow accumulations would be on the highest ground eg Wicklow Mts or perhaps the tops of the highest hills, looks mainly sleety with maybe a few wet flakes but little to nothing settling on lower ground . Some of the models showing a small bit of snow accumulations in the SE but hard to see this happening with the 850 hPa temps not very cold with a lot of mixing going on? 2m air temps don't look that cold either until later in the day when the precipitation has cleared.
Later tomorrow into Thurs could get a lot of wintry showers along the Atlantic coasts and would expect a lot of mountain tops to be white on Thurs morning through the rest of the week. Could get reports of poor driving conditions on high ground with some frosty nights. A lot of the showers convective in nature with heavy hail showers at times and flurries of snow on higher ground with some moving inland at times. Hit and miss by nature.
Not much chance of anything settling on lower ground for long during the day but some could settle briefly on higher ground during the dark hours. Could get big temperature drops under these showers and some a bit gusty. Could be a few more organized bands of wintry precipitation moving in from the W , NW, N at times. Brighter day in the W of the country tomorrow and some good bright spells for most on Thurs. A few isolated sparks over water or near to coasts perhaps later Weds into Thurs. Just my tuppence worth.