Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

Eod100 wrote: »

What's the point though? If they develop symptoms they can get a test anyway. If not they still need to restrict their movements for 14 days so doesn't really change much.

It will take weeks to bring down the case numbers as they are because people still go to work, shop, use public transport etc before knowing they are sick or a close contact.

Well, if we factor in that it took 6 weeks to reduce our numbers by 80% between Oct and December how long will it take for us to get back down to 200-250? Factor in the increased transmissibility factor which in turn may result in more household spread (if you are stuck in a house with somebody with the more contagious strain). Then there is a reasonable argument to be had that Oct-Mar is prob the worst period for the virus spreading for multiple reasons highlighted many times on thread.

Lets be optimistic and say the schools being closed at least until end of month will balance out the new strain impact. I think this extra three weeks really helps us see the major impact on our health system. If it transpires that the new strain does mix easier among children then it will of also be proven to be a vital decision. Regardless, if our healthsystem is under severe strain by the end of the month (which seems inevitable) , opening schools will not of looked like a good decision.

So if we peak at 7k, by start of march we are at 1400 per day (80% reduction). Then another 6 weeks (mid April) we get down to 280 and by end of May we are down to 56 per day.

Now thats a basic back of a cigerette pack calc but its not unreasonable to think that we may have 8-12 weeks of heavy restrictions (how heavy I would not predict). But hopefully by April with numbers dramatically dropping along with better weather and most importantly a significant part of the vulnerable population vaccinated, hopefully from April we will see progressively less restrictions and more and more things opening up. (particularly if hospitalizations plummet and the amount of people infected is less relevant from a severity POV).