Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Options
1…2425262830

Comments

  • Options
    #812
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭combat14


    mariaalice wrote: »
    I know this is an anicdote but I know a couple who saved a 30% deposit in two years by moving back in with parents plus the parent are helping so they will end up with a 40% deposit that is not uncommo and its how a fair few are buying in Dublin. They are not high earners on circa 35k each.

    will be 40% deposit till prices go up again as a result


  • Options
    #813
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Listen all I hope you all have a good xmas regardless of if your a bull a bear when it comes to property.


  • Options
    #814
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Listen all I hope you all have a good xmas regardless of if your a bull a bear when it comes to property.

    Well said! Happy Christmas everyone!


  • Options
    #815
    enricoh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,841 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Saw an article in the journal that half of the expected 25k houses built next year will be paid for by the government. I can't see any price decreases when the government is hoovering up. So much supply.
    Doesn't seem very sustainable to be spending so much to me , but we don't bother much with sustainable in Ireland!!

    https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZWpvdXJuYWwuaWUvY292aWQtY29uc3RydWN0aW9uLTUyODczNjgtRGVjMjAyMC_SAUNodHRwczovL3d3dy50aGVqb3VybmFsLmllL2NvdmlkLWNvbnN0cnVjdGlvbi01Mjg3MzY4LURlYzIwMjAvP2FtcD0x?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE:en


  • Options
    #816
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    "We are witnessing the highest demand for housing I've ever seen"

    https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/we-are-witnessing-the-highest-demand-for-housing-ive-ever-seen-house-prices-rising-despite-covid-19-crisis-39900461.html


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #817
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭combat14


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    "We are witnessing the highest demand for housing I've ever seen"

    https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/we-are-witnessing-the-highest-demand-for-housing-ive-ever-seen-house-prices-rising-despite-covid-19-crisis-39900461.html


    relative to what


  • Options
    #818
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    combat14 wrote: »
    relative to what

    Indeed some context is needed. How many properties were on the market in comparison to last year? Very easy to see a substantial increase from a small base.

    It's a shame that the media is not doing a balanced and unbiased assessment.

    How about the flip side of people leaving Dublin to the suburbs and countryside? Surely that should bring down the price of apartments in Dublin?


  • Options
    #819
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    GocRh wrote: »
    Indeed some context is needed. How many properties were on the market in comparison to last year? Very easy to see a substantial increase from a small base.

    It's a shame that the media is not doing a balanced and unbiased assessment.

    How about the flip side of people leaving Dublin to the suburbs and countryside? Surely that should bring down the price of apartments in Dublin?

    No that wouldn’t be in keeping with the property porn agenda of the Irish media


  • Options
    #820
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,719 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    GocRh wrote: »

    How about the flip side of people leaving Dublin to the suburbs and countryside? Surely that should bring down the price of apartments in Dublin?

    If it does the statistics will bear it out , hasn’t happened yet .


  • Options
    #821
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The MNCs international tax affairs looks like it will be a much bigger headwind for property in Ireland than Covid:
    Facebook is winding up Irish holding companies it has used to channel billions of profits to avoid paying taxes in the US, the UK and hundreds of other countries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/dec/27/facebook-to-close-controversial-irish-holding-companies


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #822
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    The MNCs international tax affairs looks like it will be a much bigger headwind for property in Ireland than Covid:



    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/dec/27/facebook-to-close-controversial-irish-holding-companies

    It will only be a headwind if it translates to job losses. This is just the closing of the last double irish Dutch sandwich and has been on the cards since the EU closed the loophole in 2014. At the time it was closed to new entrants and old ones need to comply by the end of 2020. It’s not new news .


  • Options
    #823
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    It will only be a headwind if it translates to job losses. This is just the closing of the last double irish Dutch sandwich and has been on the cards since the EU closed the loophole in 2014. At the time it was closed to new entrants and old ones need to comply by the end of 2020. It’s not new news .

    Fair enough if that is what this example is. Re the bigger picture, personally I think rising pressure against the tax arrangements of big tech here will lead to job losses.


  • Options
    #824
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,719 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    schmittel wrote: »
    Fair enough if that is what this example is. Re the bigger picture, personally I think rising pressure against the tax arrangements of big tech here will lead to job losses.

    What specifically do you think will cause them to relocate operations from Ireland ?

    Aul props made reference to this now and again with no actual detail.


  • Options
    #825
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Cyrus wrote: »
    What specifically do you think will cause them to relocate operations from Ireland ?

    Aul props made reference to this now and again with no actual detail.

    I’ve discussed this before in a bit of detail. But in short:

    I think that the US will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that they are US companies.
    I think an ex EU UK will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis a lot of profits are made in their market.
    I think France and Germany will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that a lot of the profits are made in their markets.

    I don’t believe that either the MNCs have the (non tax) motivation to remain such a substantial presence here in the face of this political pressure.

    I don’t believe Ireland has the necessary political capital to resist this pressure.


  • Options
    #826
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    Fair enough if that is what this example is. Re the bigger picture, personally I think rising pressure against the tax arrangements of big tech here will lead to job losses.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MsBbOaBcBfw

    The YouTube clip gives a good explanation of double irish and why closing it will not lead to job losses. It’s compiled by non Irish economists that have no bias in the matter


  • Options
    #827
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,719 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    schmittel wrote: »
    I’ve discussed this before in a bit of detail. But in short:

    I think that the US will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that they are US companies.
    I think an ex EU UK will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis a lot of profits are made in their market.
    I think France and Germany will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that a lot of the profits are made in their markets.

    I don’t believe that either the MNCs have the (non tax) motivation to remain such a substantial presence here in the face of this political pressure.

    I don’t believe Ireland has the necessary political capital to resist this pressure.

    Trump built his election campaign on that and here we are four years later

    France and Germany have been interested in this for years aswell

    So what’s going to change ?


  • Options
    #828
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Trump built his election campaign on that and here we are four years later

    France and Germany have been interested in this for years aswell

    So what’s going to change ?

    Everything.

    It's incredible how property has held up in Dublin. In San Francisco, another tech hub, the cost of renting a studio apartment has dropped by 40%.


  • Options
    #829
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Trump built his election campaign on that and here we are four years later

    France and Germany have been interested in this for years aswell

    So what’s going to change ?

    Covid bills fall due. France and Germany say do we raise income taxes or is there some low hanging fruit we can go after?

    I think the status quo is shaky.


  • Options
    #830
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    Everything.

    It's incredible how property has held up in Dublin. In San Francisco, another tech hub, the cost of renting a studio apartment has dropped by 40%.

    San Francisco rents have not dropped by 40%.
    Studios have dropped by 35% as nobody wants to work from home in a one room apartment.

    The median rent for a studio apartment dropped 35% last month from a year earlier, to $2,100, while costs for one-bedrooms were down 27% to $2,716, according to data set to be released this week from Realtor.com. The declines are steepening from earlier in the pandemic, a sign that people with the flexibility to move are leaving an area that’s still among America’s priciest for housing.


  • Options
    #831
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    Covid bills fall due. France and Germany say do we raise income taxes or is there some low hanging fruit we can go after?

    I think the status quo is shaky.

    The biggest risk is that they break up the big IT companies. As for the government debt this is not going to be repaid the second covid is over. In fact it will continue for at least 10 years and be wound down slowly. The reason I say this is that as the QE matures it will suck cash out of the economy and have the same effect as a interest rise. I expect they will use this as an opportunity to implement changes to economies from a green perspective.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #832
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MsBbOaBcBfw

    The YouTube clip gives a good explanation of double irish and why closing it will not lead to job losses. It’s compiled by non Irish economists that have no bias in the matter

    Agreed their lack of bias is clear! They are saying that Ireland doesn't have anything particularly appealing about it, companies are now likely to just stick with the status quo because of a lack of any more compelling options.

    That's my point - the motivation to stay is not strong, I think the status quo will not last and ultimately there will be more compelling options.


  • Options
    #833
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    I’ve discussed this before in a bit of detail. But in short:

    I think that the US will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that they are US companies.
    I think an ex EU UK will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis a lot of profits are made in their market.
    I think France and Germany will try and attract some of that tax revenue on the basis that a lot of the profits are made in their markets.

    I don’t believe that either the MNCs have the (non tax) motivation to remain such a substantial presence here in the face of this political pressure.

    I don’t believe Ireland has the necessary political capital to resist this pressure.

    You’re way off the mark. Challenge will be attracting future FDI and not threats to large scale job losses in Ireland. Look at what BT is planning for Ireland. There will always be restructuring, job losses, job creation etc.
    Don’t mix up tax loopholes with large scale presence of MNCs in Ireland.
    I’d also suggest looking at the job postings by the likes of Facebook, google, Amazon and others over the last 3 months.
    Regarding the uk and what profits are made in their market - what % of those profits are made in the uk because the uk was part of EU? For example....
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-the-brexit-deal-mean-for-financial-services-11608834027


  • Options
    #834
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    The biggest risk is that they break up the big IT companies. As for the government debt this is not going to be repaid the second covid is over. In fact it will continue for at least 10 years and be wound down slowly. The reason I say this is that as the QE matures it will suck cash out of the economy and have the same effect as a interest rise. I expect they will use this as an opportunity to implement changes to economies from a green perspective.

    Of course not, but the tax rises needed to pay for it will have to happen incrementally over that time.


  • Options
    #835
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    You’re way off the mark. Challenge will be attracting future FDI and not threats to large scale job losses in Ireland. Look at what BT is planning for Ireland. There will always be restructuring, job losses, job creation etc.
    Don’t mix up tax loopholes with large scale presence of MNCs in Ireland.
    I’d also suggest looking at the job postings by the likes of Facebook, google, Amazon and others over the last 3 months.
    Regarding the uk and what profits are made in their market - what % of those profits are made in the uk because the uk was part of EU? For example....
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-the-brexit-deal-mean-for-financial-services-11608834027

    what challenges will we face attracting future FDI?


  • Options
    #836
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    what challenges will we face attracting future FDI?

    Other countries taking measures to compete with Ireland. For example, a lot of intel investment comes down to Ireland vs Israel for various reasons. Many MNCs have already factored in tax changes to future investment planning in countries. You do have to factor in cost of employment in Ireland as well as rent etc but then offset expected falls in commercial real estate which can deliver significant savings over long term. Will rents for apartments strat to fall over coming years as supply increases added to wfh etc....

    I work for a US MNC, factoring in future corporation taxes in US as well as whatever agreement is reached in OECD, there isn’t a tax exposure to be in Ireland. When you then factor in the benefit Ireland operations ads to the business it is an easy business case to continue expansion in Ireland over the next 5 years.

    Only idiots think MNCs are located in Ireland solely for tax purposes.


  • Options
    #837
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Other countries taking measures to compete with Ireland. For example, a lot of intel investment comes down to Ireland vs Israel for various reasons. Many MNCs have already factored in tax changes to future investment planning in countries. You do have to factor in cost of employment in Ireland as well as rent etc but then offset expected falls in commercial real estate which can deliver significant savings over long term. Will rents for apartments strat to fall over coming years as supply increases added to wfh etc....

    I work for a US MNC, factoring in future corporation taxes in US as well as whatever agreement is reached in OECD, there isn’t a tax exposure to be in Ireland. When you then factor in the benefit Ireland operations ads to the business it is an easy business case to continue expansion in Ireland over the next 5 years.

    Only idiots think MNCs are located in Ireland solely for tax purposes.

    Count me in so, as well as Timingbelt's "non Irish economists that have no bias in the matter"!


  • Options
    #838
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    Timing belt wrote: »
    The biggest risk is that they break up the big IT companies. As for the government debt this is not going to be repaid the second covid is over. In fact it will continue for at least 10 years and be wound down slowly. The reason I say this is that as the QE matures it will suck cash out of the economy and have the same effect as a interest rise. I expect they will use this as an opportunity to implement changes to economies from a green perspective.

    Wouldn't the repatriation of IP to the US reduce our GDP, thus increasing our debt to GDP ratio and ultimately our debt servicing costs?

    Perhaps a reversal of the 26% GDP growth in 2015 which was largely due to IP being domiciled in Ireland.


  • Options
    #839
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    Count me in so, as well as Timingbelt's "non Irish economists that have no bias in the matter"!

    Oh well, each to their own.


  • Options
    #840
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    Count me in so, as well as Timingbelt's "non Irish economists that have no bias in the matter"!

    The clip is saying that companies will stay regardless of tax and gives one of the highest ratings for Ireland.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #841
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    GocRh wrote: »
    Wouldn't the repatriation of IP to the US reduce our GDP, thus increasing our debt to GDP ratio and ultimately our debt servicing costs?

    Perhaps a reversal of the 26% GDP growth in 2015 which was largely due to IP being domiciled in Ireland.

    Debt servicing will be low as QE will be around for 1
    at least 10 years the only reason it would rise is inflation.

    If we see inflation it will reduce the debt.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement