Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The clip is saying that companies will stay regardless of tax and gives one of the highest ratings for Ireland.

It is saying that the whole reason the companies came here in the first place was because of the tax.

Now they're here the clip says they are likely to stay because of a lack of compelling alternatives.

I think it's possible some alternatives may become compelling in the future.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

It is saying that the whole reason the companies came here in the first place was because of the tax.

Now they're here the clip says they are likely to stay because of a lack of compelling alternatives.

I think it's possible some alternatives may become compelling in the future.

I think you the reasons many MNCs are in Ireland but it suits yourself to take the populist view. Another question is how will this impact property prices in 2020 or 2021? I already pointed out to you that a number of MNCs are continuing to expand operations in Ireland. Many of these roles will require immigrants due to technical skills required. So impact on property market this year or next?

breadmonster

GocRh wrote: »

Wouldn't the repatriation of IP to the US reduce our GDP, thus increasing our debt to GDP ratio and ultimately our debt servicing costs?

Perhaps a reversal of the 26% GDP growth in 2015 which was largely due to IP being domiciled in Ireland.

I guess we will soon find out
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/dec/27/facebook-to-close-controversial-irish-holding-companies

Mic 1972

schmittel wrote: »

It is saying that the whole reason the companies came here in the first place was because of the tax.

Now they're here the clip says they are likely to stay because of a lack of compelling alternatives.

I think it's possible some alternatives may become compelling in the future.

They already are, it's very common to work for multinationals that have major operations dislocated in other European Countries.

Languages and technical skills are available everywhere in Europe now, things have moved on a lot in the last 20 years. Ireland used to be the place to go for call centers, this is hardly the case anymore

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I think you the reasons many MNCs are in Ireland but it suits yourself to take the populist view. Another question is how will this impact property prices in 2020 or 2021? I already pointed out to you that a number of MNCs are continuing to expand operations in Ireland. Many of these roles will require immigrants due to technical skills required. So impact on property market this year or next?

I think the impact is potentially negative. It is just one of a number of headwinds property prices are facing all of which are appear to be converging. When some, if not all, have an impact I have no idea. I would be pretty confident that the noise around MNCs tax affairs will get louder in 2021.

As far as suiting myself to take the populist view, I don't have an an angle to suit. No doubt amongst employees of MNCs in Ireland the popular view is that they are here for the highly skilled workforce, so maybe it is reasonable to say your view suits yourself also

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I think the impact is potentially negative. It is just one of a number of headwinds property prices are facing all of which are appear to be converging. When some, if not all, have an impact I have no idea. I would be pretty confident that the noise around MNCs tax affairs will get louder in 2021.

As far as suiting myself to take the populist view, I don't have an an angle to suit. No doubt amongst employees of MNCs in Ireland the popular view is that they are here for the highly skilled workforce, so maybe it is reasonable to say your view suits yourself also

I would say my view is supported by fact whereas yours....
Happy new year

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Of course not, but the tax rises needed to pay for it will have to happen incrementally over that time.

Nope.

You're working on the flawed assumption that increasing taxes is the only way to increase tax revenue.

If our economy is growing, the tax take will increase without changing anything.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Nope.

You're working on the flawed assumption that increasing taxes is the only way to increase tax revenue.

If our economy is growing, the tax take will increase without changing anything.

Ok, I phrased it badly, I should have said "but the tax take rises needed to pay for it will have to happen incrementally over that time"

I am hardly "working on the flawed assumption that increasing taxes is the only way to increase tax revenue" if my entire point is that France and Germany will look to see if they can get a piece of our tax take in preference to increasing the tax rates on their own citizens.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Ok, I phrased it badly, I should have said "but the tax take rises needed to pay for it will have to happen incrementally over that time"

I am hardly "working on the flawed assumption that increasing taxes is the only way to increase tax revenue" if my entire point is that France and Germany will look to see if they can get a piece of our tax take in preference to increasing the tax rates on their own citizens.

Still nope.

Your new flawed assumption is taxation applied by another state automatically equals a reduction in our tax take.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Still nope.

Your new flawed assumption is taxation applied by another state automatically equals a reduction in our tax take.

Nope I haven't assumed that.

It may lead to job losses, but of course I understand that will not necessarily equal a reduction in our tax take. The hospitality sector could simultaneously boom for example.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

It may lead to job losses, but of course I understand that will not necessarily equal a reduction in our tax take.

I don't see any significant signs of that happening either.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

I don't see any significant signs of that happening either.

Well that might be based on the flawed assumption that it will be business as usual.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Well that might be based on the flawed assumption that it will be business as usual.

I don't think it's going to be business as usual at all.

Personally I reckon we're in for a jittery start to 2021 followed by a period of sustained growth.

Property wise, I don't expect much change in early 21, upward pressure on prices after that.

No convoluted taxation/MNC scenarios involved, simple human nature and the principles of supply & demand.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

I don't think it's going to be business as usual at all.

Personally I reckon we're in for a jittery start to 2021 followed by a period of sustained growth.

Property wise, I don't expect much change in early 21, upward pressure on prices after that.

No convoluted taxation/MNC scenarios involved, simple human nature and the principles of supply & demand.

I don't expect a mass exodus of MNCs from Ireland in 2021 any more than I expect a mass exodus of Dubliners to the sticks in 2021.

On MNC's tax I think Brexit will be straw that breaks the camels back and that process will start in 2021. It won't be business as usual.

Pelezico

What has any of this got to do with the housing market. Just asking.

Seems like a general discussion about MNCs.

hometruths

Pelezico wrote: »

What has any of this got to do with the housing market. Just asking.

Seems like a general discussion about MNCs.

It started as a point about MNC job losses leading to lesser demand for housing. Went OT in conversation with Graham about my flawed assumptions.

But MNCs in Ireland do have an influence on the market.

GocRh

Graham wrote: »

I don't see any significant signs of that happening either.

Job losses may not happen in MNCs (I surely hope not as I work for a MNC), but there's no denying that job losses, many permanent, will happen in the hospitality sector.

300k people on PUP, 200k on job seekers, certainly a significant chunk of people on PUP will become permanently unemployed.

It won't be business as usual for the wider society anytime soon.

Back to the topic at hand - housing - I think it's undeniable that apartments in Dublin will go down in price. There won't be a crash but there will be an adjustment, demand will likely go down as a combination of people moving out of Dublin and higher unemployment.

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

What has any of this got to do with the housing market. Just asking.

Seems like a general discussion about MNCs.

If MNC’s start to cut jobs then house prices will drop, tax will need to go up leading to house prices going lower again. Will probably see emigration which means more supply which leads to even lower prices.

Personally I don’t see it happening and think that the economy will be stop start all year as inflation doesn’t materialise. I see a uptick in property prices, farm land, new cars as banks will pass on negative rates to deposits over x amount which will lead to people withdraw bank deposits and using cash to buy assets that perceive will maintain value. My prediction is houses prices 10% higher by the end of 2021

Smouse156

https://youtu.be/jDOVE5tbbDs

And people say Daft don’t have an agenda...trying to spin 3% drops into 7% rises

GocRh

Timing belt wrote: »

My prediction is houses prices 10% higher by the end of 2021

Maybe for Semi-Ds but the housing market is much bigger than that. New apartment sales in particular have been driven primarily by buy to let institutional investors.
Will large institutional investors and pension funds continue to buy apartments in Dublin?

Many people may also use their savings to pay off their existing mortgages early. I can't say I agree with your prediction.

Villa05

Pelezico wrote:

What has any of this got to do with the housing market. Just asking.
Seems like a general discussion about MNCs.

Achievable Demand for house purchasing comes from
MNCs and public sector employees on well above median income
the state paying silly money for social housing in addresses that the majority of us can't afford
Reits and investment trusts buying up property with significant tax incentives and extortionate rents.

Take out the or damage the MNCs and incomes of house buying public, tax revenues that support state purchases and high rents are all in danger of collapse.

Basically the wealth in the nation is used to make everything more expensive through propping up property prices and rents which is an incredibly stupid policy for the nation

Timing belt

GocRh wrote: »

Maybe for Semi-Ds but the housing market is much bigger than that. New apartment sales in particular have been driven primarily by buy to let institutional investors.
Will large institutional investors and pension funds continue to buy apartments in Dublin?

Many people may also use their savings to pay off their existing mortgages early. I can't say I agree with your prediction.

Institutional investors will still be buying whatever they can get their hands on till their holdings are maxed from a risk perspective as they will be chasing yield. The one thing we don’t know is what immigration into Ireland will see if it is strong then 1 bed apartments will see price increases

TheSheriff

Smouse156 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/jDOVE5tbbDs

And people say Daft don’t have an agenda...trying to spin 3% drops into 7% rises

Daft have an agenda; this guy on youtube also has an agenda

Also with an agenda but interesting nonetheless, latest article from Independent.ie

https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/house-prices-rise-by-almost-15-over-three-months-report-39901691.html

Despite fears of a downturn in the market during the Covid-19 crisis,

the price of a three-bed semi across the country rose by more than 3,000 euros over the past three months to 239,194 euros – an annual increase of 1.9%.

A record number of mortgage approvals and a lack of supply have driven the increases, according to the quarter-four Real Estate Alliance (REA) House Price Index.

• The average three-bedroomed semi-detached house is now reaching sale agreed status after just six weeks on the market – a significant fall from the 10-week average in June.

• Many estate agents are reporting that houses are reaching sale agreed status within a four-week period, as mortgage-approved buyers chase a limited amount of stock.

• "It is hard to imagine that the market would perform better during the crisis than before it, but we are witnessing the highest demand levels that I have seen"
  Barry McDonald, REA

• "Buyers want homes with a garden more than ever and we have up to 40 couples viewing each property" Jim Gallagher, REA

Marius34

Smouse156 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/jDOVE5tbbDs

And people say Daft don’t have an agenda...trying to spin 3% drops into 7% rises

The problem with Daft reports, that usually they don't specify that it's Asking Price, and that it's Average price of the adds, which doesn't mean much. This leads to misleading reports/articles.
It was same, but opposite 2020 Q1.
"Combined with falls in both Q3 and Q4, it means that year-on-year, prices are now 1.7% lower than at the end of Q1 2019. In Dublin, the annual decline is slightly larger, at 2.6%, similar to the fall seen elsewhere in Leinster."
"These extraordinary real economic consequences will, of course, translate into housing market effects. COVID-19 represents an extraordinary shock to housing demand and we should expect to see significant falls in housing prices - both sale and rental - as the economic effects unwind. "

Depends on what their get in their "Average" price, we always can see it as an Agenda, to both directions, depending on our own interest.

The guy in the video, always speaks against any upwards trends.

Marius34

GocRh wrote: »

Back to the topic at hand - housing - I think it's undeniable that apartments in Dublin will go down in price. There won't be a crash but there will be an adjustment, demand will likely go down as a combination of people moving out of Dublin and higher unemployment.

I think it's undeniable that apartments in Dublin could go up in price (or maybe down). I'm far from being confident, but I would think that there is more chance for apartments in Dublin to go up in 2021.

Baby01032012

TheSheriff wrote: »

Daft have an agenda; this guy on youtube also has an agenda

Well he was the one that called Daft out on their agenda. Yes he has an agenda in that he is using social media to promote his estate agency business like everyone else. He speaks on current property related topics in a field that he has experience and knowledge on. He’s not directly trying to sell people something.

hmmm

Marius34 wrote: »

I think it's undeniable that apartments in Dublin could go up in price (or maybe down). I'm far from being confident, but I would think that there is more chance for apartments in Dublin to go up in 2021.

It's all about location I think rather than any particular property type. Google telling employees (in some news reports I've seen) that employees can work partly from home but have to be within commuting distance of an office clarifies much of the future - a lot of tech companies will follow their lead. The dreams of living on a remote island and working for Google won't happen, but you might decide not to live in a dingy house-share in the city-centre either. Suddenly you have lots more time to explore your local area, and lots more recreation time also. City-centre retail will suffer badly, and some of the social outlets (pubs etc.) will move to areas which are easily reachable from the suburbs.

I expect purchasers of any property who works in those sort of hybrid companies will be less concerned about being located near to work, and more interested in their local area & what it offers. Commuting into the office 2 or 3 times a week is less of a concern. Areas with a good local scene (coffee shops, pubs etc.) will do well, as will areas near to recreation e.g. sea & mountains. I can see a layering in Dublin at least, with areas in the city centre doing well, areas near the sea, and also the further suburbs extending out to Wicklow. Losers will be areas in-between where a lot of the older (and more expensive) stock is, but lacking easy access to recreation or social activity.

TheSheriff

Baby01032012 wrote: »

Well he was the one that called Daft out on their agenda. Yes he has an agenda in that he is using social media to promote his estate agency business like everyone else. He speaks on current property related topics in a field that he has experience and knowledge on. He’s not directly trying to sell people something.

Not sure if this needs to be called out, but if you think this man is not directly trying to sell something you are very wrong.

He has skin in the game.

Look at everything he says through that lense, rather than 'i want a cheaper house and this guy says property is falling so he must be right'.

Cluedo Monopoly

I heard about redundancy programs starting in 4 separate MNCs during December in Galway. 2 were IT and 2 were Medtech.
I was surprised by the timing to be honest. Not sure why they could not wait until after Christmas.