Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I’d agree that a lot of the 30k projected need is ftbers who would fit the bill for this scheme. Minister has said there will be no arbitrary salary cap determining eligibility which suggests it’s not means tested.

Say it is 2/3 - that’s 20,000 a year. The government has ringfenced 75m for the scheme initially, which covers 1000 mortgages.

How are they going to decide who gets the 1000? Either the govt accepts there will be a hell of a fuss from those who are eligible but do not receive it, or they try and find €1.5bn to fund it for all.

And where will they find €1.5bn without kicking up a hell of a fuss elsewhere? Talk of private investment is hopelessly optimistic.

I don’t think it will be expanded on the 1k you mention. I think it will form part of a number of initiatives they will try.

Regarding this, I presume geographic location of applicants will apply - no pint granting 500 for Dublin if only 400 sub €400k units available or no point granting 200 for Longford if there aren’t 200 new builds etc.

I do agree there will be populist outrage about who gets it and who doesn’t, all that kind of sh*t.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t think it will be expanded on the 1k you mention. I think it will form part of a number of initiatives they will try.

Regarding this, I presume geographic location of applicants will apply - no pint granting 500 for Dublin if only 400 sub €400k units available or no point granting 200 for Longford if there aren’t 200 new builds etc.

I do agree there will be populist outrage about who gets it and who doesn’t, all that kind of sh*t.

Do you mean you think it’s just a small part of a 75m pot, so maybe not even 1000 will get it?

Re location, I agree it has to be prioritized. It would be good if they targeted it in areas of demand in the context of vacancies/density/underdeveloped and not just in the highest areas of demand where people want to buy.

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

I earlier posted links showing increased prices in the UK, NZ and a projected 7% rise in Australia within 12 months, but it was mostly ignored. In the US, house prices for average homes have been rising at roughly 1% per month.

What is your opinion on that situation, these all seem unsustainable increases.

Property prices were doing the same in the noughties and that did not end well. Has money printing replaced sub prime as the driver of these increases

What in your opinion makes unsustainable increases a positive for the property market

I feel it is a boom bust cycle and we know who picks up the bill at the end

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Do you mean you think it’s just a small part of a 75m pot, so maybe not even 1000 will get it?

Re location, I agree it has to be prioritized. It would be good if they targeted it in areas of demand in the context of vacancies/density/underdeveloped and not just in the highest areas of demand where people want to buy.

No I think it will not be expanding beyond 1k per year. That’s what less than 5% of current output? They won’t put all their eggs in 1 basket. I think there will be other initiatives introduced. The answer simply isn’t for the government or build more houses as some would suggest. That’s only part of the solution.

Dunfyy

Brexit and covid should kill the property market
In 2021 you can see a lot of property's unsold for the last 6 months

Smouse156

Mic 1972 wrote: »

More evidence that prices went up in 2020

Daft asking prices do not reveal anything other than seller confidence.

Real data from CSO shows price falls, although slight ones in the year to October (latest data).

I paid 44k for my car (new in 2019). If I listed it tomorrow at 50k, Daft would claim my car is up 10% whereas in reality I’d be lucky to sell it for 32k...aka only selling prices actually matter!

Dunfyy

Smouse156 wrote: »

Daft asking prices do not reveal anything other than seller confidence.

Real data from CSO shows price falls, although slight ones in the year to October (latest data).

I check property price register I notice sherry fitzgerald takes over a listing from another company and adds 50k to 100k then next month drops it 10k
It must be marketing thing then it drops off its books

Dunfyy

Smouse156 wrote: »

Daft asking prices do not reveal anything other than seller confidence.

Real data from CSO shows price falls, although slight ones in the year to October (latest data).

I paid 44k for my car (new in 2019). If I listed it tomorrow at 50k, Daft would claim my car is up 10% whereas in reality I’d be lucky to sell it for 32k...aka only selling prices actually matter!

if you were famous I would pay double that price

Smouse156

Dunfyy wrote: »

if you were famous I would pay double that price

If I was famous I wouldn’t be posting 😂 on boards

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

What is your opinion on that situation, these all seem unsustainable increases.

Property prices were doing the same in the noughties and that did not end well. Has money printing replaced sub prime as the driver of these increases

What in your opinion makes unsustainable increases a positive for the property market

I feel it is a boom bust cycle and we know who picks up the bill at the end

All these countries have seen their Central bank Rate cut during the year making lending cheaper. On top of the central banks have been buying Mortgage backed securities on the market which is making it easier for banks to issue new mortgages. And to top it off the likes of the UK introduced a temporary stamp duty reduction. With all that fire power it is no wonder prices have increased and makes it a totally different situation to the noughties.

Ireland's housing market has not seen any of those drivers....

BryanMartin21

Smouse156 wrote: »

Daft asking prices do not reveal anything other than seller confidence.

Real data from CSO shows price falls, although slight ones in the year to October (latest data).

I paid 44k for my car (new in 2019). If I listed it tomorrow at 50k, Daft would claim my car is up 10% whereas in reality I’d be lucky to sell it for 32k...aka only selling prices actually matter!

Well, it depends. If your car was new only last year and there was a shortage of new cars in the last 10 years under 50k as PCP or whatever other finance there is available didn't allow you to buy a car over that amount. You might make money in this environment, especially if you sell to car investors who lease vehicles to the State who need them for those that need cars but can't afford their own.

For me, Daft asking prices reflect the mood which, as I posted the other day, is in the euphoria stage for many, and anxiety for some. Ultimately it is unprecedented however given the global, coordinated central bank intervention. I would advise to someone starting out to build up their savings the next 3-5 years and then buy unless you had the cash now to afford the mortgage which is 30%+ below your rent. For those living at home sitting on their cash mountains and fretting at pubs, I say get out and get some life experience away from the cushion of mommy and daddy.

Timing belt

article just published on a plan for arrears

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40194321.html

combat14

Timing belt wrote: »

article just published on a plan for arrears

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40194321.html

why would pension funds pick up the tab the only genuine solution is evict and fire sale like the US

the whole country would benefit from lower european style interest rates

this is more articial state proping up of the property market

Wanderer78

combat14 wrote:

why would pension funds pick up the tab the only genuine solution is evict and fire sale like the US

Would hardly cause major social problems, would it?

TheSheriff

Timing belt wrote: »

article just published on a plan for arrears

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40194321.html

Another absolutely terrible idea.

Shelga

I'm currently in the middle of being outbid, yet again, by a cash buyer who will rent out the property for ~€2k a month. I feel like crying. Looking for anywhere half-decent to live in Dublin, as a single person, is fucking soul-destroying.

I'm 33, living at home for 2 years now, wasting my life away in this city. Have been looking properly for about a year.

Anyone else feel like just giving up?

Shelga

And if I read one more thing about a nonsense government scheme that only applies to new builds, I will throw my laptop out the window. Why are they obsessed with new builds? I know no one who can afford a new build, whatever bullshit schemes they dream up, that just prop up the price.

Wanderer78

Shelga wrote: »

And if I read one more thing about a nonsense government scheme that only applies to new builds, I will throw my laptop out the window. Why are they obsessed with new builds? I know no one who can afford a new build, whatever bullshit schemes they dream up, that just prop up the price.

rising property and land prices is always good, as the wealth trickles down!

Ozark707

Shelga wrote: »

And if I read one more thing about a nonsense government scheme that only applies to new builds, I will throw my laptop out the window. Why are they obsessed with new builds? I know no one who can afford a new build, whatever bullshit schemes they dream up, that just prop up the price.

The gov here don't want prices to drop so these schemes to get around CBI rules are designed to keep the show on the road. Not sure it will do you any good but you could always contact your local gov TD to register your displeasure.

Villa05

Wanderer78 wrote:

rising property and land prices is always good, as the wealth trickles down!

Is this trolling or a wind up. Higher prices lead to less money to spend on job creating and tax generating business

Increasingly revenue/profit from property is going to foreign institutions tax free so that money is lost forever in the Irish economy govt aided

Higher rents for business employees is seriously impacting our competitiveness.

Increasing affordability issues is resulting in increased govt spending propping up rents and adding to our debt mountain

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this trolling or a wind up. Higher prices lead to less money to spend on job creating and tax generating business

Increasingly revenue/profit from property is going to foreign institutions tax free so that money is lost forever in the Irish economy govt aided

Higher rents for business employees is seriously impacting our competitiveness.

Increasing affordability issues is resulting in increased govt spending propping up rents and adding to our debt mountain

can you explain this to our politicians please, because they keep encouraging the opposite, and rising public debt is far safer than rising private debt, as 08 showed, again!

brisan

Timing belt wrote: »

They will need to have a regional house price cap as 400k would be way to high outside Dublin.

It's a good thing that it is not means tested as a it becomes an option for Divorced separated people who although may be on a good wage are locked out of the housing market and force to rent.

I have a feeling that the scheme will not be available to all new builds and will be only available to certain new builds like in the UK and it will be on a first come first served basis. Without knowing the in's and out's it is near impossible to fully understand the impact as if this is only available to certain builds of affordable homes then it is more or less social housing in another form.

If it is done on a large scale then this will really impact the rental market and may open up some of this housing stock to owners as rents drop and investors pull out.

Most of these will not be first time buyers having previously owned a family home

Timing belt

brisan wrote: »

Most of these will not be first time buyers having previously owned a family home

They would still qualify as a FTB provided they left the home and no longer had a financial interest in it.

https://www.lawsociety.ie/globalassets/documents/practice-notes/ftb.pdf

brisan

Timing belt wrote: »

They would still qualify as a FTB provided they left the home and no longer had a financial interest in it.

https://www.lawsociety.ie/globalassets/documents/practice-notes/ftb.pdf

Thanks for that link
I had read the opposite on the currently buying or selling thread

fliball123

Dunfyy wrote: »

Brexit and covid should kill the property market
In 2021 you can see a lot of property's unsold for the last 6 months

What ever about Brexit people have been saying Covid will kill the market for the majority of the last 12 months

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

article just published on a plan for arrears

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40194321.html

John Moran is a former secretary-general at the Department of Finance.

He warned that the issue of problem mortgage loans from the last economic crisis, in arrears for over five and 10 years, will only get worse because so much of the distressed home loan debt is held by the vulture funds who are short-term holders.

Here's a thought Mr Moran, if the distressed loan debt is held by state backed pension funds , the issue of problem loans will get worse still because people will think paying your mortgage is a mugs game and who could blame them.

Bananas idea.

combat14

"mortgage approvals are down by 15pc in volume terms and 9.9pc in value terms in the year to date"

"..banks being reluctant to advance mortgages to workers in a range of sectors affected by Covid-19, with employers rather than applicants now being assessed for risk, according to brokers.

Even employees who are not in direct receipt of Covid supports can struggle to obtain a mortgage, brokers said.

Banks are said to be taking a dim view of those who work for employers that are availing of a scheme for other staff in a company.

Sectors where workers are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow include retail, hospitality, aviation, leisure and some parts of the construction industry."


https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/more-mortgages-are-approved-as-market-recovers-from-pandemic-closures-in-early-2020-39890236.html



will have to see if drop in mortgage approvals and over value of lending continues into next year with brexit and ongoing covid crisis

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

"mortgage approvals are down by 15pc in volume terms and 9.9pc in value terms in the year to date"

Evidence, if any were needed that it is Government that is 100% responsible for keeping property unaffordable for working citizens of Ireland

This is being done through the state buying social housing in expensive areas
Tax free status for Reits on income from property.
Long term leases from the government at peak rents for social housing, so not only are reits getting away with paying little or no tax, there income is guaranteed by the state. A social welfare scheme for the wealthy

That's some gravy train funded by workers and businesses that results in higher costs for them in rents and accomodation costs

JimmyVik

combat14 wrote: »

"mortgage approvals are down by 15pc in volume terms and 9.9pc in value terms in the year to date"

"..banks being reluctant to advance mortgages to workers in a range of sectors affected by Covid-19, with employers rather than applicants now being assessed for risk, according to brokers.

Even employees who are not in direct receipt of Covid supports can struggle to obtain a mortgage, brokers said.

Banks are said to be taking a dim view of those who work for employers that are availing of a scheme for other staff in a company.

Sectors where workers are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow include retail, hospitality, aviation, leisure and some parts of the construction industry."


https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/more-mortgages-are-approved-as-market-recovers-from-pandemic-closures-in-early-2020-39890236.html



will have to see if drop in mortgage approvals and over value of lending continues into next year with brexit and ongoing covid crisis

If lending is strict now because of covid, imagine what things will be like when covid is history and that reverses.

Ozark707

JimmyVik wrote: »

If lending is strict now because of covid, imagine what things will be like when covid is history and that reverses.

Yes I am very surprised lending is only down by that amount.