Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Smouse156

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not sure if this needs to be called out, but if you think this man is not directly trying to sell something you are very wrong.

He has skin in the game.

Look at everything he says through that lense, rather than 'i want a cheaper house and this guy says property is falling so he must be right'.

Not saying he doesn’t have an agenda however, he is correct in calling out Daft’s bull**** headlines

Marius34

hmmm wrote: »

It's all about location I think rather than any particular property type. Google telling employees (in some news reports I've seen) that employees can work partly from home but have to be within commuting distance of an office clarifies much of the future - a lot of tech companies will follow their lead. The dreams of living on a remote island and working for Google won't happen, but you might decide not to live in a dingy house-share in the city-centre either. Suddenly you have lots more time to explore your local area, and lots more recreation time also. City-centre retail will suffer badly, and some of the social outlets (pubs etc.) will move to areas which are easily reachable from the suburbs.

I expect purchasers of any property who works in those sort of hybrid companies will be less concerned about being located near to work, and more interested in their local area & what it offers. Commuting into the office 2 or 3 times a week is less of a concern. Areas with a good local scene (coffee shops, pubs etc.) will do well, as will areas near to recreation e.g. sea & mountains. I can see a layering in Dublin at least, with areas in the city centre doing well, areas near the sea, and also the further suburbs extending out to Wicklow. Losers will be areas in-between where a lot of the older (and more expensive) stock is, but lacking easy access to recreation or social activity.

Which areas you have in mind that it will go down in price, if city center and costal prices goes up?
I'm not sure its possible to know which areas will go down, and which up, Dublin is not really that massive to separate. If areas near the sea, and city centers goes up in any significance, it's likely to expect other parts of Dublin to be impacted to the same price change direction.

GocRh

Marius34 wrote: »

I would think that there is more chance for apartments in Dublin to go up in 2021.

What makes you think apartments will go up? Honest question.
The way I see it, people now want more space and many will be able to work part-time remote, driving more people to the suburbs and commuter towns.
Immigration very likely to fall due to travel restrictions and unwillingness to be abroad and away from family.
Younger people who traditionally rent apartments (many of whom sharing) are the most affected by the hospitality crisis and are more likely to experience a loss of income. Those planning to buy may no longer be able to secure a mortgage.

GocRh

hmmm wrote: »

I expect purchasers of any property who works in those sort of hybrid companies will be less concerned about being located near to work, and more interested in their local area & what it offers. Commuting into the office 2 or 3 times a week is less of a concern. Areas with a good local scene (coffee shops, pubs etc.) will do well, as will areas near to recreation e.g. sea & mountains. I can see a layering in Dublin at least, with areas in the city centre doing well, areas near the sea, and also the further suburbs extending out to Wicklow. Losers will be areas in-between where a lot of the older (and more expensive) stock is, but lacking easy access to recreation or social activity.

Not everyone works for MNCs. Apartment prices were stagnant before covid hit due to affordability issues.
Affordability has not improved, income (even in some MNCs) has reduced, consumer confidence levels have not recovered and are likely to fall again due to the new lockdown.

Maybe areas in North Dublin (Clongriffin, Portmarnock, etc) may see more demand as there's some more affordable stock (2 bed apartments under 350k). South Dublin is already beyond reach of couples on average income levels, Bray and Greystones also expensive and with limited apartment options.

Marius34

GocRh wrote: »

What makes you think apartments will go up? Honest question.
The way I see it, people now want more space and many will be able to work part-time remote, driving more people to the suburbs and commuter towns.
Immigration very likely to fall due to travel restrictions and unwillingness to be abroad and away from family.
Younger people who traditionally rent apartments (many of whom sharing) are the most affected by the hospitality crisis and are more likely to experience a loss of income. Those planning to buy may no longer be able to secure a mortgage.

Because I don't see apartments disconnected from houses for Dublin. If houses goes up by any significance, apartments would follow.
If there is increase in WFH it affects all properties in Dublin. Single/Couple renting a room in the house, may want now to move to its own apartment. Single/Couple from Dublin on salary below 60K/annual salary, may have no other option than apartment. You can expect increase in demands for rental apartments soon. Thus demands for investment properties.
Commuting towns does not have large supplies either, so can't solve Dublin problem.

JimmyVik

Marius34 wrote: »

Because I don't see apartments disconnected from houses for Dublin. If houses goes up by any significance, apartments would follow.
If there is increase in WFH it affects all properties in Dublin. Single/Couple renting a room in the house, may want now to move to its own apartment. Single/Couple from Dublin on salary below 60K/annual salary, may have no other option than apartment. You can expect increase in demands for rental apartments soon. Thus demands for investment properties.
Commuting towns does not have large supplies either, so can't solve Dublin problem.

There is a place for all types of housing.
I remember a few year ago my nephew and his wife could afford a house.
All they could afford was a 1 bed apartment.
Everyone told them not to buy an apartment, but they did as it was that or pay high rent.
So they bought one and they havent looked back. Meanwhile most of the people who told them not to buy can now not even afford a 1 bed.

Sometimes you have to take stock and buy what you can afford. That or make the decision to not buy ever.

hmmm

Marius34 wrote: »

Which areas you have in mind that it will go down in price, if city center and costal prices goes up?
I'm not sure its possible to know which areas will go down, and which up, Dublin is not really that massive to separate. If areas near the sea, and city centers goes up in any significance, it's likely to expect other parts of Dublin to be impacted to the same price change direction.

I can only try and get inside the head of people who will be working in a "hybrid" environment after the pandemic passes. I know not everyone works for a MNC, but large numbers of office workers across multiple sectors will not be going back to a 5 day a week office schedule.

Previously you were 5 days at work, and 2 days at home, so the "work" bit factored hugely into your decision as to where to buy.

Now you may be spending 2 or 3 days at work, 4 or 5 days at home, and with a large amount of extra free time after work. You may make different decisions around schooling. You're going to want to live somewhere where recreation makes up a bigger part of your purchase decision - families are going to see more of their kids, spouses are going to see more of each other.

JimmyVik

hmmm wrote: »

I can only try and get inside the head of people who will be working in a "hybrid" environment after the pandemic passes. I know not everyone works for a MNC, but large numbers of office workers across multiple sectors will not be going back to a 5 day a week office schedule.

Previously you were 5 days at work, and 2 days at home, so the "work" bit factored hugely into your decision as to where to buy.

Now you may be spending 2 or 3 days at work, 4 or 5 days at home, and with a large amount of extra free time after work. You may make different decisions around schooling. You're going to want to live somewhere where recreation makes up a bigger part of your purchase decision - families are going to see more of their kids, spouses are going to see more of each other.

I think things will return closer to normal after covid than most people think

GocRh

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/dec/30/uk-property-market-2021-stamp-duty-price-rises

Forecast accross the Irish Sea if for falls between 4 and 8%, reversing price rises seen this year.

Yes, our housing market is completely dysfunctional, but I don't think it can magically keep on going up amid unprecedented economic uncertainty.

Marius34

hmmm wrote: »

I can only try and get inside the head of people who will be working in a "hybrid" environment after the pandemic passes. I know not everyone works for a MNC, but large numbers of office workers across multiple sectors will not be going back to a 5 day a week office schedule.

Previously you were 5 days at work, and 2 days at home, so the "work" bit factored hugely into your decision as to where to buy.

Now you may be spending 2 or 3 days at work, 4 or 5 days at home, and with a large amount of extra free time after work. You may make different decisions around schooling. You're going to want to live somewhere where recreation makes up a bigger part of your purchase decision - families are going to see more of their kids, spouses are going to see more of each other.

There are no much of supplies in commuting towns. It would not be able to absorb such movement, prices would jump immediately, thus most would not be able to afford, whether its Greystones, or further in Wicklow town.

cnocbui

GocRh wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/dec/30/uk-property-market-2021-stamp-duty-price-rises

Forecast accross the Irish Sea if for falls between 4 and 8%, reversing price rises seen this year.

Yes, our housing market is completely dysfunctional, but I don't think it can magically keep on going up amid unprecedented economic uncertainty.

And the forecast is for considerable rises in NZ, Australia and the US. Brexit is like shooting yourself in both feet.

GocRh

cnocbui wrote: »

And the forecast is for considerable rises in NZ, Australia and the US. Brexit is like shooting yourself in both feet.

And you think we won't be negatively impacted by Brexit?
NZ, Australia are on the other side of the world and have beat covid. We're on our 3rd lockdown with record number of cases and hospitalisations.
Prices in big American cities (NY, SF) are falling. Either way you can't compare America (300 million people, world's largest economy) to Ireland.

I honestly hope we ride this storm better than the rest of the world. But that would be naïve, all sign show that the economy will continue to limp along in 2021, and that will have an impact on the housing market.

cnocbui

I am not at all sure of the impact of brexit, particularly given the no tariff deal that has been agreed.

I'm still amazed that people think of economies in geographical terms, broadly. Being on the other side of the world is not a major difference. It doesn't matter terribly much, compared to the global economic performance in general and a countries part in that.

Australia and NZ are almost Covid free, but the economic consequences are still while they are trading in a Covid world. A bit better for small businesses, one would hope, but there are still restrictions. 20% of Global jobs and GDP are travel related.

The US decline in cities is exactly the same social phenomenon that is being observed in the UK, Ireland Australia, and NZ - WFH and lockdowns bringing people to change their perceptions of the importance of their domestic living space, with bigger being more desirable and rural and smaller communities taking on a new charm with the new-found means to escape the rat-race. The rise in demand and attractiveness of smaller towns is the same in the US, Ireland, Australia and NZ.

Dozens of cities and counties that were once considered too small, too southern, too hot, too flat, or lacking in amenities, culture, or sophistication are now finding themselves being swooned to the top of the real estate desirability lists as Americans seek warmer, healthier, less dense, better educated, and more mobile places to live that offer closer access to the outdoors, better hospitals, smaller schools, and more open space with no clear end to the pandemic in sight.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertaylor/2020/10/11/covid-19-has-changed-the-housing-market-forever-heres-where-americans-are-moving-and-why/

Popularity of regional towns grows due to impact of COVID-19

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/popularity-of-regional-towns-grows-due-to-impact-of-covid19/

Like many other regions, Te Tai Tokerau is experiencing a real estate boom, with house sales in November up 36 per cent, the highest since 2016, according to the latest REINZ residential property report.
Te Tai Tokerau is experiencing a real estate boom.

The region's average sale price for the month was $589,000 – a slight dip on October's record $600,000, but still a sizeable 16.6 per cent up on November 2019.

Aucklanders make up the majority of buyers in the coastal town of Mangawhai, and the number is increasing, Bayleys Mangawhai business development manager Debbie Jones said.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/300184236/northland-real-estate-market-going-mad-as-more-aucklanders-move-in

2020 saw record number of homebuyers move out of London as Covid sparks exodus from city life

It's one small world and one global economy and the pandemic has had the same housing market impact in pretty much every English speaking country, and I doubt it's a phenomenon defined or limited by language, it's probably happening near universally.

Despite people's insularities and belief Ireland is somewhow totally different; it isn't, really.

GocRh

cnocbui wrote: »

Despite people's insularities and belief Ireland is somewhow totally different; it isn't, really.

Agreed. Those expecting apartment prices in Dublin to go up as discussed on this thread seem to believe Ireland is somehow different from the rest of the western world.

House prices (3 bed semi Ds) have gone up in Ireland as people are seeking to leave cities, due to pent up demand after months of lockdown, buyers trying to secure a property before AIPs expire and historic low levels of house supply.

Apartments will be a different story - as already seen in the UK - however the Irish media are cherry picking numbers and using 3 bed semi Ds as the benchmark because it suits their narrative.

However the fact that NZ and Australia have covid under control will undoubtedly accelerate the recovery of their economy. NZ is already expericing a recovery above other similar economies:
"New Zealand’s ‘go hard and early’ Covid policy reaps economic rewards | Financial Times" https://www.ft.com/content/b8c4ab58-99db-4af2-9449-5fd70a9235ce

TheSheriff

GocRh wrote: »

Agreed. Those expecting apartment prices in Dublin to go up as discussed on this thread seem to believe Ireland is somehow different from the rest of the western world.

House prices (3 bed semi Ds) have gone up in Ireland as people are seeking to leave cities, due to pent up demand after months of lockdown, buyers trying to secure a property before AIPs expire and historic low levels of house supply.

Apartments will be a different story - as already seen in the UK - however the Irish media are cherry picking numbers and using 3 bed semi Ds as the benchmark because it suits their narrative.

However the fact that NZ and Australia have covid under control will undoubtedly accelerate the recovery of their economy. NZ is already expericing a recovery above other similar economies:
"New Zealand’s ‘go hard and early’ Covid policy reaps economic rewards | Financial Times" https://www.ft.com/content/b8c4ab58-99db-4af2-9449-5fd70a9235ce

I generally agree with you, but I think we can start to stop rolling out statements like "pent up demand" & "before AIP expires". These have been thrown about for 9 months now.... its safe to assume those AIPs have already expired. This is just demand.

GocRh

TheSheriff wrote: »

I generally agree with you, but I think we can start to stop rolling out statements like "pent up demand" & "before AIP expires". These have been thrown about for 9 months now.... its safe to assume those AIPs have already expired. This is just demand.

My AIP with AIB is valid for 12 months. I know people who have been granted AIP extensions. When I started going back to viewings (August / September) 2 agents told me people were panic buying before losing AIPs and most importantly LTV exceptions.

AIPs expiring and pent up demand are not the isolated reason for price rises, but were certainly contributing factors. I do agree that now it's mostly down to extremely low stock levels and continued demand, the all very familiar root causes for our housing crisis.

JimmyVik

GocRh wrote: »

My AIP with AIB is valid for 12 months. I know people who have been granted AIP extensions. When I started going back to viewings (August / September) 2 agents told me people were panic buying before losing AIPs and most importantly LTV exceptions.

AIPs expiring and pent up demand are not the isolated reason for price rises, but were certainly contributing factors. I do agree that now it's mostly down to extremely low stock levels and continued demand, the all very familiar root causes for our housing crisis.

I still have AIP form 3 different banks.
I closed with a 4th bank already so the aips are there even though they will never progress any further.

Dolbhad

JimmyVik wrote: »

I still have AIP form 3 different banks.
I closed with a 4th bank already so the aips are there even though they will never progress any further.

I was the same. I’ve still two valid AIP’s at moment and closed the purchase of my house in December with a 3rd bank.

I had valid AIP’s from at least two banks at all times for last 3 years. My issue was stock... but if you thought my financial circumstances were going to change at any stage, I would have bought sooner but with a house I was not as happy with.

Pelezico

This thread has died. Pity...it used to be a good laugh.

Timing belt

We need Prop back lol

hometruths

It would be a shame if Prop has gone for good, but I can't say I blame him - he got banned for discussing property investment on a property thread!

Beware the mods - they can now legitimately claim all posts are irrelevant to discussion of 2020 property market!

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

Beware the mods - they can now legitimately claim all posts are irrelevant to discussion of 2020 property market!

100% in a market completely hijacked by vested interests, its a shame to see those who speak up attacked and then silenced.

Not that we didn't see this in 07/08 also

Graham

Mod Note

if you wish to discuss moderation PM a mod or take it to the feedback forum.

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three putt

Start a new 2021 property market thread ??

Pelezico

<SNIP>

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

It would be a shame if Prop has gone for good, but I can't say I blame him - he got banned for discussing property investment on a property thread!

Beware the mods - they can now legitimately claim all posts are irrelevant to discussion of 2020 property market!

He has several alter egos , a few of them are on property pin if you miss him.

hometruths

three putt wrote: »

Start a new 2021 property market thread ??

Done.

Graham

Thanks schmittel, new 2021 thread here